Pakistan in danger of falling into China’s “debt trap”

[ziaulislam]

I wrote:
Debt as a % of GDP has doubled every 7 years since 1990. My bad.

Intent was to write debt and not debt to GDP ratio but increase in absolute external debt in $s. And it has not doubled every 7 years but increased 5 times in 28 years.

However, check definition of external debt and if we are on same page. I dont think your graphs account for CPEC loans.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1249171

Look at the external debt in 2010. Then compare with debt in 2017 (include CPEC loans as debt).

The only time this did not happen was under Musharraf and I give you that.

• Pakistan’s external debt was $21.9 billion in 1990.
• It was $35.6 billion in 2000.
• Pakistan’s foreign debt and liabilities in July 2013 stood at USD 61.9 billion
• In July 2014, Pakistan’s foreign debt soared to USD 63.4 billion, showing an increase of USD 1.5 billion.
• In July 2015, the foreign debt rose to USD 65.1 billion recording an increase of USD 1.7 billion.
• It rose to 85 billion in Dec 2017. This does not include CPEC debt that is 40 billion atleast. Add this and the debt is 125 billion.
• From 21B to 125B is a 5 fold increase.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1585327/2-pakistans-external-debt-liabilities-increase-12-3-85b/

lol, child doesnt know what GDP means that things need to be seen in context of GDP

i am sorry you are not only smoking weed,but also a teenager on keyboard

what waste of time

pakistan debt increase by 3 times
india by 5 times
i hope you do undertand how to read simple graph, as i expect from a child
ps:
india is better in debt as gdp grew faster but i am using your childish logic

Do you know who is responsible ? The elites like the sitting prime minister of pakistan. He is more willing to import crude oil and LNG rather then exploring pakistan own discovered resources specially in KPK.
K-P to demand right to award oil blocks in CCI meeting
But he is telling lie to pakistanis
KP gas reserves depleting fast: Khaqan

And no one can ask a question to this stupid that how pakistan reserve depleting fast when you dont explore yet. He was also the minister of petroleum. And we know the quick money and commisions cant be earned by exploring..

Well he also successfully runs the private Air line "Air Blue", and behind the scene he wants to sabotage National Air line in which he got success.

There are many examples like steell mill..
No doubts our politicians are busy in corruption, nepotism..



I totally disagree with you.. Radical Islam can only be overcome by counter terrorism narrative.. One of book writen by Dr . Tahir Ul Qadri.
Pakistan should be able to pay all debts to save her sovereignty.. Otherwise other countries will not join one belt one road initiative by china. And whole word will laugh not only on china but on pakistan too.. Basically you are promoting indian narrative.

kpk produces 50% oil
oil production went up from 50,000 barrels in 2008-09 to 100,000 barrels 2017 and expected to hit 300,000 due to KPK high expectations in kohat basin

yes poor and slow reforms have made problems in pakistan

 

[Kaniska]

Pakistan should be able to pay all debts to save her sovereignty.. Otherwise other countries will not join one belt one road initiative by china. And whole word will laugh not only on china but on pakistan too.. Basically you are promoting indian narrative.. so kindly stop doing this.

Do not get emotional with what @Kaptaan has mentioned...His statements are very rational. In order to pay with the loan amount that has been incurred by Pakistan, your society has to really allign with the way China and their people work...Pakistan has to allign with the interest of China both politically and to some extent culturally too... Influence of China will definitely influence the conservative society and Politicization of Islam in Pakistan to the way, it would like to see Pakistan to be..

 

[shahbaz baig]

I only wish it was that simple. Radical Islam and the obscurantism that feeds it has seeped into the very matrix of society in Pakistan. It will take a generation and deliberate effort to unroll it. The motive power for that will come from CCP. Pakistani ruling elite only plans for the next day.

Do not get emotional with what @Kaptaan has mentioned...His statements are very rational. In order to pay with the loan amount that has been incurred by Pakistan, your society has to really allign with the way China and their people work...Pakistan has to allign with the interest of China both politically and to some extent culturally too... Influence of China will definitely influence the conservative society and Politicization of Islam in Pakistan to the way, it would like to see Pakistan to be..

And we dont buy indian false and propagated narrative.

I personaly appericate some extent of chinese political version where death penalty is must for corrupts if there are proofs.

British ruled us 150 years and still we have our own indian muslims manners and principles to live a life and it's poeple choice whatever culture they decide to live with.

Indian muslim including pakistan will be a good example of islam in future.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Well guys here is the point to be noted: the banks who are financing infrastructure within China are also financing CPEC. Capatalists behind the Chinese banks are the same as IMF or central reserve or may be Goldman Sachs etc. Its not China, its the same old Banker thugs. China wouldn't be able to save Pakistan, even if she wants to, as China also owes trillions to these bankers. Its better that either Pakistan is correcting herself or the trap is already set. One more time PPP or Noon league, and the game is over. Pakistan needs a group of people capable of and are actually working for People, not democratic hordes of swines.

 

[Lil Mathew]

Just one problem with that. At most 5% of indians are Punjabis. Therefore even by your own definition, at least 95% of indians have 0 racial, genetic or dna connection to Pakistan. Around 30% of Pakistanis have a racial and genetic link to Iran and Afghanistan. That doesn't make us Middle Eastern just as it doesn't make us indian. india may have different ethnic groups but at least 95% of those groups have no commonality with ANY Pakistani ethnic group and are completely different to us.

Punjabis and other north indians are considered as one race... Indo-Aryan...
170 million of Pakistanis (Punjabis,Sindhi)
and 910 million of Indians are Indo Aryans...

 

[wiseone2]

This is a bet Pakistan cant lose.

What is the worst case scenario? Pak cant repay CPEC debt. What is the recourse? Pak sells its equity stake in Big G and a few other infra projects- , maybe a few thousand acres of barren land surrounding these assets. Big deal. What does Pak gain? Even in the worst case scenario, some world class infra assets.

Win-Win for Pak, if you ask me.

Regards

I do not know what the Chinese can do if Pakistan refuses to pay the loans

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Punjabis and other north indians are considered as one race... Indo-Aryan...
170 million of Pakistanis (Punjabis,Sindhi)
and 910 million of Indians are Indo Aryans...

indian punjabis and north indians are not the same race as Pakistani Punjabis. They don't even look the same. The only similarity is language. indo-Aryan is not a precise term. It's basis is more linguistic rather than genetic/racial. What indians would consider to be indo-Aryan is what most Pakistanis would claim to be are dravidians. Here in London, I have seen 1000s of indians and Pakistanis for over 35 years and by and large they are VERY physically distinguishable. There is no doubt about that.

 

[ramu]

lol, child doesnt know what GDP means that things need to be seen in context of GDP

i am sorry you are not only smoking weed,but also a teenager on keyboard

what waste of time

pakistan debt increase by 3 times
india by 5 times
i hope you do undertand how to read simple graph, as i expect from a child
ps:
india is better in debt as gdp grew faster but i am using your childish logic


kpk produces 50% oil
oil production went up from 50,000 barrels in 2008-09 to 100,000 barrels 2017 and expected to hit 300,000 due to KPK high expectations in kohat basin

yes poor and slow reforms have made problems in pakistan

The problem with debates on pdf is personal insults. If I respond in kind, then I will just stoop to your level. My point was to present the rate of debt growth vs GDP growth (without inflation). Well, if your whole argument is centered around personal insults then I know where this is heading.

 

[volatile]

The point is not whether I know or not. The issue is no one knows. it is however reported in China that it is on the lines of international debt financing policy of China same as in Srilanka.

PLease enlighten us other then the Hindu or any other Indian news paper as Chinese are very closed ended in what they say e.g they have already mantained Gawadar share will be 8% which is not bad since it earns billions of $

 

[Max]

Punjabis and other north indians are considered as one race... Indo-Aryan...
170 million of Pakistanis (Punjabis,Sindhi)
and 910 million of Indians are Indo Aryans...

Low IQ bharati Indo Aryan is language group, Bengal and Sri lankan also speak Indo aryan, it got nothing to do with race.

What a so called north ganga bharati bihari, marathi, upian share with Pakistan Punjabis? Only Sikhs share similarity.. rest 98pc ganga is almost alien..

 

[Lil Mathew]

Low IQ bharati Indo Aryan is language group, Bengal and Sri lankan also speak Indo aryan, it got nothing to do with race.

What a so called north ganga bharati bihari, marathi, upian share with Pakistan Punjabis? Only Sikhs share similarity.. rest 98pc ganga is almost alien..

Indo -Aryan is linguistics group... They are same race man... First distinguish between race and ethnicity...

 

[salarsikander]

Indo -Aryan is linguistics group... They are same race man... First distinguish between race and ethnicity...

Post reported for cntsat troliing and goinfg off topic/.

@waz @Jungibaaz @Jango

 

[Max]

Indo -Aryan is linguistics group... They are same race man... First distinguish between race and ethnicity...

It's you who need to distinguish not me, so according to you Pak punjabis are same as Bangladeshi and Sri Lanka in physical appearance, same type and they feel belonging to Sri Lankan and bangladeshis

Don't know why you gangalanders act so desperate and come up with hilarious terms to associate your kind with us.. as I said except Sikhs you are aliens.

Iranians also speak Indo Aryan so they and Sri Lankan are also same race
race noun (PEOPLE)
C1 [ C or U ] a group, especially of people, with particular similar physical characteristics, who are considered as belonging to the same type, or the fact of belonging to such a group:

 

[Lil Mathew]

It's you who need to distinguish not me, so according to you Pak punjabis are same as Bangladeshi and Sri Lanka in physical appearance, same type and they feel belonging to Sri Lankan and bangladeshis

Don't know why you gangalanders act so desperate and come up with hilarious terms to associate your kind with us.. as I said except Sikhs you are aliens.

race noun (PEOPLE)
C1 [ C or U ] a group, especially of people, with particular similar physical characteristics, who are considered as belonging to the same type, or the fact of belonging to such a group:

Who tried to associate with you people??? Ha ha... Funny... You came between the conversation and jumping the gun...
Read all comments in that conversation... Your fellow countryman said Pakistan formed not basis on religion but because of race... I argued only basis is Islam... India has different ethnic groups and Pakistan also have... He said Pakistanis are more Iranian & Afghan origin... But Pak Punjabis are more indian than Iranians...

 

[Max]

Who tried to associate with you people??? Ha ha... Funny... You came between the conversation and jumping the gun...
Read all comments in that conversation... Your fellow countryman said Pakistan formed not basis on religion but because of race... I argued only basis is Islam... India has different ethnic groups and Pakistan also have... He said Pakistanis are more Iranian & Afghan origin... But Pak Punjabis are more indian than Iranians...

So what you were trying to say by comparing your 900 millions with us when he was talking about genetics and you was blabbering about Indo aryan? its good if you associate your self to your dravidian kind..

Punjabi/Sindhi/Baloch/Pashtun are neither gangalanders, nor Iranian, they are son of this soil, not paraschutted by Iranian or gangalanders, we are here older then all of them.. its insult to associate us with any of them..

I as Pakistani am perfectly fine with if he want to see Pakistan as ethnic union.. i am also fine if other Pakistani see it as religious nation.. its none of your problem..