Pakistan in danger of falling into China’s “debt trap”

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

During partition almost 14 million people migrated in religious basis... That is from India to Pakistan and vice versa... Also note that population of Pakistan after partition was only 30 million... So your race theory has a little meaning...Na???

And that population is now over 200 million. With at least 80 million having a racial/ genetic link to Iran and Afghanistan. That doesn't make us Iranian/Persian or Afghan just as it doesn't make us indian.

 

[Lil Mathew]

And that population is now over 200 million. With at least 80 million having a racial/ genetic link to Iran and Afghanistan. That doesn't make us Iranian/Persian or Afghan just as it doesn't make us indian.

30 million total after partition... It's estimated that 7.2 million Indian Muslims migrated to Pakistan during partition... That is 23 million from Pakistan & 7 million from India... Now 200 million.... Also after 1947 no Iranian ,Afghan racial mixing done in Pakistan... Your observations are not adding up...
Iran/Afghan or Indo-Aryan or dravida- Arya, everyone's fate is marked on their head...

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

30 million total after partition... It's estimated that 7.2 million Indian Muslims migrated to Pakistan during partition... That is 23 million from Pakistan & 7 million from India... Now 200 million.... Also after 1947 no Iranian ,Afghan racial mixing done in Pakistan... Your observations are not adding up...
Iran/Afghan or Indo-Aryan or dravida- Arya, everyone's fate is marked on their head...

No need to racially mix with Iranians or Afghans directly. Around 30% of Pakistanis are racially identical to Southern Iranians and Afghans. That mixing has been going on for 1000s of years. Way before Islam and certainly before 1947. Explains why Pakistanis look so physically different to indians.

 

[Lil Mathew]

No need to racially mix with Iranians or Afghans directly. Around 30% of Pakistanis are racially identical to Southern Iranians and Afghans. That mixing has been going on for 1000s of years. Way before Islam and certainly before 1947. Explains why Pakistanis look so physically different to indians.

There is northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh people look very similar to Punjabis from Pakistan. Also huge number of Muslims people from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Rajasthan migrated to Pakistan during partition...
Even India's population is no look alike... East is totally different to west... North is much different to south...

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

There is northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh people look very similar to Punjabis from Pakistan. Also huge number of Muslims people from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Rajasthan migrated to Pakistan during partition...
Even India's population is no look alike... East is totally different to west... North is much different to south...

Just one problem with that. At most 5% of indians are Punjabis. Therefore even by your own definition, at least 95% of indians have 0 racial, genetic or dna connection to Pakistan. Around 30% of Pakistanis have a racial and genetic link to Iran and Afghanistan. That doesn't make us Middle Eastern just as it doesn't make us indian. india may have different ethnic groups but at least 95% of those groups have no commonality with ANY Pakistani ethnic group and are completely different to us.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Guys, remember there is no friend in politics or geopolitics affairs.

So we should stay very carefull with loans. But in the case of China and Pakistan, I think that we understand that China needs Pakistan and Pakistan needs China.

But at the end, it will be the ability of China to support Pakistan's debt "cost" in the time. And that will also depend on their economical situation. I read somewhere that most Chinese companies have big debt, and per western standard these companies would have been bankrupt long time ago. So we should stay very careful.

And It remind me that we don't know the real contracts signed with them and... knowing our politicians, I have some reservations and concerns about this point.

Anyway, water and debts will be the next starter for world war.

I suggest you take as much as possible and then simply default. South America defaulted on hundreds of Billions from US banks and what could we do? Try to collect and everybody yells vultures!

Why default on $20B when you can do $100B?

 

[Vortex]

I suggest you take as much as possible and then simply default. South America defaulted on hundreds of Billions from US banks and what could we do? Try to collect and everybody yells vultures!

Why default on $20B when you can do $100B?

And your point is ?

 

[ziaulislam]

Guys, remember there is no friend in politics or geopolitics affairs.

So we should stay very carefull with loans. But in the case of China and Pakistan, I think that we understand that China needs Pakistan and Pakistan needs China.

But at the end, it will be the ability of China to support Pakistan's debt "cost" in the time. And that will also depend on their economical situation. I read somewhere that most Chinese companies have big debt, and per western standard these companies would have been bankrupt long time ago. So we should stay very careful.

And It remind me that we don't know the real contracts signed with them and... knowing our politicians, I have some reservations and concerns about this point.

Anyway, water and debts will be the next starter for world war.

circular debt by using imported fuel touched nearly 10 billion dollars, additional 4 billion dollars are PIA liabilites
this is more than debt accumulated by whole CPEC project so far!

 

[ramu]

I wrote:
Debt as a % of GDP has doubled every 7 years since 1990. My bad.

Intent was to write debt and not debt to GDP ratio but increase in absolute external debt in $s. And it has not doubled every 7 years but increased 5 times in 28 years.

However, check definition of external debt and if we are on same page. I dont think your graphs account for CPEC loans.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1249171

Look at the external debt in 2010. Then compare with debt in 2017 (include CPEC loans as debt).

The only time this did not happen was under Musharraf and I give you that.

• Pakistan’s external debt was $21.9 billion in 1990.
• It was $35.6 billion in 2000.
• Pakistan’s foreign debt and liabilities in July 2013 stood at USD 61.9 billion
• In July 2014, Pakistan’s foreign debt soared to USD 63.4 billion, showing an increase of USD 1.5 billion.
• In July 2015, the foreign debt rose to USD 65.1 billion recording an increase of USD 1.7 billion.
• It rose to 85 billion in Dec 2017. This does not include CPEC debt that is 40 billion atleast. Add this and the debt is 125 billion.
• From 21B to 125B is a 5 fold increase.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1585327/2-pakistans-external-debt-liabilities-increase-12-3-85b/

WTF at best..
i am tired of this
i am just goign to argue on this one point as sample..i dont have time for other bullshit

debt to gdp ratio was all time low in growth sport of early 2000s and dropped to historical low of 50s,
i went up by 7 points in low growth era of PPPP but has been stable..(this waht exactly IMF report says couple of days ago)

NOW YOU WERE SAYING IT DOUBLE EVERY SEVEN YEARS SINCE 1990S, ARE YOU SMOKING WEED

-----------------------
pakistan will grow 6+ with short term challenges to current account deficit(like every country including india had in early 2000s, in balance between rapid increasing machinery imports and exports), i dont expect debt issues, it will continue to drop

now compare that to SHINNING INDIA

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please do some research before brain farting

 

[Indus Pakistan]

I suggest you take as much as possible and then simply default. South America defaulted on hundreds of Billions from US banks and what could we do? Try to collect and everybody yells vultures!

Why default on $20B when you can do $100B?

I entirely agree with you. Over the long term it is best that Pakistan becomes hopelessly indebted to China for two reasons -

• Whatever we may say but roads, expressways, high speed rail, power stations, dams are being built. This is physical infrastructure that will benefit generations.
• 
  
• When Pakistan becomes indebted to China the ruling elite will come in the vice grip of CCP. This might just be the trick that resolves what rest of the world [America] has been complaining about Pakistan. Radical Islam. The Chinese can be depended on to use their influence to tame the country.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I entirely agree with you. Over the long term it is best that Pakistan becomes hopelessly indebted to China for two reasons -

• Whatever we may say but roads, expressways, high speed rail, power stations, dams are being built. This is physical infrastructure that will benefit generations.
• 
  
• When Pakistan becomes indebted to China the ruling elite will come in the vice grip of CCP. This might just be the trick that resolves what rest of the world [America] has been complaining about Pakistan. Radical Islam. The Chinese can be depended on to use their influence to tame the country.

Look at the skyline in Rio, Brazil. High rises in every direction as far as you can see. But you say well Brazil is f*#cked-up...well it was that way before there were buildings too! You think they want to go back to the old Rio...they took every dollar and after defaulting didn’t feel bad one bit.

San Paulo...after 40 years nobody who looks at this skyline sees hundreds of billions of US dollars anymore

 

[shahbaz baig]

circular debt by using imported fuel touched nearly 10 billion dollars, additional 4 billion dollars are PIA liabilites
this is more than debt accumulated by whole CPEC project so far!

Do you know who is responsible ? The elites like the sitting prime minister of pakistan. He is more willing to import crude oil and LNG rather then exploring pakistan own discovered resources specially in KPK.
K-P to demand right to award oil blocks in CCI meeting
But he is telling lie to pakistanis
KP gas reserves depleting fast: Khaqan

And no one can ask a question to this stupid that how pakistan reserve depleting fast when you dont explore yet. He was also the minister of petroleum. And we know the quick money and commisions cant be earned by exploring..

Well he also successfully runs the private Air line "Air Blue", and behind the scene he wants to sabotage National Air line in which he got success.

There are many examples like steell mill..
No doubts our politicians are busy in corruption, nepotism..

I entirely agree with you. Over the long term it is best that Pakistan becomes hopelessly indebted to China for two reasons -

• 
  
  
  • Whatever we may say but roads, expressways, high speed rail, power stations, dams are being built. This is physical infrastructure that will benefit generations.
  • When Pakistan becomes indebted to China the ruling elite will come in the vice grip of CCP. This might just be the trick that resolves what rest of the world [America] has been complaining about Pakistan. Radical Islam. The Chinese can be depended on to use their influence to tame the country.

I totally disagree with you.. Radical Islam can only be overcome by counter terrorism narrative.. One of book writen by Dr . Tahir Ul Qadri.
Pakistan should be able to pay all debts to save her sovereignty.. Otherwise other countries will not join one belt one road initiative by china. And whole word will laugh not only on china but on pakistan too.. Basically you are promoting indian narrative.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Radical Islam can only be overcome by counter terrorism narrative

I only wish it was that simple. Radical Islam and the obscurantism that feeds it has seeped into the very matrix of society in Pakistan. It will take a generation and deliberate effort to unroll it. The motive power for that will come from CCP. Pakistani ruling elite only plans for the next day.

 

[Kaniska]

Look at the skyline in Rio, Brazil. High rises in every direction as far as you can see. But you say well Brazil is f*#cked-up...well it was that way before there were buildings too! You think they want to go back to the old Rio...they took every dollar and after defaulting didn’t feel bad one bit.

I agree...basically, it is better to be f##k up by doing something rather than not doing any thing..So take loan create infra and get into trouble rather than being a poor nation without doing anything..

 

[shahbaz baig]

I only wish it was that simple. Radical Islam and the obscurantism that feeds it has seeped into the very matrix of society in Pakistan. It will take a generation and deliberate effort to unroll it. The motive power for that will come from CCP. Pakistani ruling elite only plans for the next day.

Pakistan should be able to pay all debts to save her sovereignty.. Otherwise other countries will not join one belt one road initiative by china. And whole word will laugh not only on china but on pakistan too.. Basically you are promoting indian narrative.. so kindly stop doing this.