Inflation surges by 21.53 per cent
Saturday, July 12, 2008
ISLAMABAD: Politically-sensitive spiralling food prices and weakening rupee pushed up inflation to an all-time high of 21.53 per cent in June 2008, after a 2.10 per cent rise in consumer prices over May 2008.
Last year in June, CPI inflation stood at 7 per cent. Twelve-month (July-June 2007-08) average inflation also went up to 12 per cent against 7.77 per cent recorded last fiscal, which is about 550 basis points above the set target of 6.5 per cent for fiscal year 2007-08.
According to data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), in June 2008, prices of food and beverages rose by 32.05 per cent; house rent 12.39 per cent; fuel and lighting 11.38 per cent; transport and communications 24.91 per cent; clearing laundry and personnel appearances 17.74 per cent; medicare 14.16 per cent and household furniture and equipment 10.43 per cent over June 2007.
During July-June 2007-08, average food inflation stood at 17.64 per cent and non-food at 7.89 per cent against 10.28 per cent and 6.01 per cent respectively in the previous fiscal year.
PPP-led coalition government like previous one has fully failed in controlling inflation especially food inflation. Inflationary pressure is also building up for another increase in fuel prices if crude oil prices head further. Besides, the present government gradually withdrawing subsidies on gas, electricity and petroleum till December 2008 could further push up inflation. Dwindling rupee value is also making imports costlier, another contributing factor for inflation.
For controlling rising inflation and its impact on the declining expected growth require coordinated efforts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and the federal government.
Mounting inflationary pressure on the economy has also scaled up prospect of the central bank raising discount rates. It is interesting to note that the imported inflation (as a result of escalating crude oil prices that kissing records) was also a source of cost push inflation, caused by substantial hike in the cost of important goods or services where no suitable alternative is available.
Economic experts say that a weakening rupee has contributed to a rise in the cost of living. Inflation dangers pose a headache for the SBP. Sensing sliding rupee impact on economy and general prices, the central bank few days back also took some decision to control the rupee form freefall and certainly it showed encouraging results.
For each one per cent increase in inflation, more and more people fall into poverty indicating that inflation was hitting poor consumers of the country harder than the more affluent ones. Specifically, the poor are highly sensitive to the price changes in food, particularly staple food items, economists believe. Concerns over rising food prices are surmounting because such increase can undermine the gains from poverty reduction and human development that the country has experienced for the last five years or so. Households struggling to meet the minimum standards of living might have no choice but to cut down their expenditures on health and childrens education, Rising inflation is also making it more difficult for pensioners and low income masses living on their very nominal income a month in. Up to now, the price inflation was the fun kind, as it went into stocks, bonds, housing - now inflation is showing up in the not fun category, namely food and stuff you have to buy just to stay alive, independent economist say.
It is interesting to note that high inflation trend in food has been noticed since the start of the last fiscal 2006.
Food inflation stood at double-digit, averaging more than 10 per cent during fiscal year 2006-07. As during July 2006, it stood at 7.44 per cent; August 11.08 per cent; September 11.26 per cent; October 10.54 per cent; November 8.07 per cent; December 12.71 per cent; January 2007, 8.70 per cent; February 9.99 per cent; March 10.74 per cent; April 9.41 per cent; May 11.31 per cent and during June 2007, it stood at 9.68 per cent.
Likewise, at the start of the new financial year 2007-08, it kept the same trajectory and during July 2007, food inflation stood at 8.47 per cent; August 8.62 per cent; September 12.97 per cent; October 14.67 per cent; November 12.47 per cent; December 12.21 per cent; January, 2008 it stood at 18.25 per cent; February 16.05 per cent; March 20.61 per cent; April 25.5 per cent; May 28.48 per cent and now during the month under review (June 2008), it stood at 32.05 per cent.
Despite their adverse impact on the low-income group, no effective steps are being taken by the government to reverse the trend.
The government seems to be indifferent to the plight of the poor and the lower middle class who find it increasingly difficult to make both ends meet with soaring prices of foodstuff and medical expenses.
While, main concern is that in the basket of Wholesale Price Index (WPI), fuel, lighting and lubricants expenses up by 48.56 per cent, building materials 38.24 per cent, food 30.16 per cent, raw materials 22.12 per cent and manufacturers price increased by 12.17 per cent in June 2008 over corresponding month of the last fiscal.
Inflation surges by 21.53 per cent