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Services sector performs poorly in July-March 2008

KARACHI: The services trade deficit widened by 39.36 percent to $4.839 billion in first nine months (July-March) of current financial year over $3.473 billion in the corresponding period last year. According to latest data released by Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) on Saturday, services trade deficit, also swelled by 30.02 percent in month of March to $603.246 million compared to $463.976 million in the same month of last year. Furthermore, it also widened phenomenally by 123.53 percent against preceding month of February when it totaled $269.872 million. During July-March 2007-08, services export declined by 13.51 percent to $2.398 billion against $2.772 billion previous year whereas imports surged by 15.89 percent to $7.238 billion over $6.246 billion in the last year.

The export in month of March alone, however depicted healthy gains of almost 25 percent to $292.778 million over $234.426 million in the previous year. While imports were also up by almost 28.30 percent during March to $896.024 million against $698.402 million in the last fiscal. Analysts said export performance of the sector was less impressive compared its preceding months, which caused a huge deficit in services trade besides put further pressure on the balance of payment position of the country. Analysts said government needed to resolve a number of issues confronting this sector like quality, acceptance of professional credentials, visa problems and the most importantly the image problem, which has marred to exploit the major potential in this sector.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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Car sales continue to slump, decline by 8%

KARACHI: The sale of cars declined by 8 percent during the first 10 months of the current financial year, figures released by the assemblers’ association show.

The local car assemblers managed to sell only 120,859 units in July-April period of this fiscal year compared to 131,962 units sold in the same period of last financial year.

The sale of cars declined to 13,597 in April from 13,871 units in March.

This decline in April is primarily due to product price increase by almost all local auto assemblers. The prices have been revised upward to pass on the impact of rising costs to the end consumers, claim the assemblers.

“Even the extension of 2.5 percent withholding tax (WHT) exemption till Jun 30, 2008 was not able to support the declining sales,” said Bilal Hameed, an analyst at JS Research.

The sale of cars and light commercial vehicles, combined fell by 5 percent to 153,846 units from 162,462 units. Their sale in April dropped to 17,259 units from 17,532 in March.

The share break up for cars and LCVs in auto sales is 79 percent and 21 percent, respectively.

The sale of cars and LCVs have been on a declining course, although the government had restricted the import of cars to units not older than three years in the budget announced for 2007-08. In the beginning of this fiscal year, when the sale of automobiles started falling, the assemblers had blamed it on the imposition of 2.5 percent withholding tax on purchase of new cars. Although the government suspended the collection of levy in February for two months and then extended the suspension till June 30, the sales continues to decline.

Moreover, the question arises why should a tax on purchase of cars be suspended at all. Is it a basic necessity of life? Definitely not! Instead of suspending taxes on purchase of such luxurious items, the government should remove duties on those items which are essential for survival.

Besides, keeping in view the condition of our roads, which are perennially clogged, from morning to late evening, is it a prudent policy to continue to allow factories to churn out cars in tens of thousands every month?

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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‘One million jobs are at stake in the apparel sector’

KARACHI: Apparel sector will face a huge labour cut and shut down of units across the country due to worsening situation caused by anti-export policies of the government, Pakistan Apparel Forum (PAF) said on Saturday.

Chairman PAF, Naqi Bari said, a total of 700 units of this sector have been closed down all over Pakistan.

“If the apparel sector is not given due importance by the government, the rest of the operational units, totalling around 2,000, in Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Multan, Islamabad etc would be forced to shut down, rendering entire labour force employed by this sector,” he warned.

He demanded separate EOU rules for apparel industry, making it part with EPZ with mechanism for smooth sailing of EOU programme, reduction in multiple taxes, restoration of export finance rate as on 2002 without participation of commercial banks, matching gas tariffs as allowed to fertilizer industry be given to apparel industry.

Besides, EU, USA and Japan may be approached for zero rated tariffs entry of Pakistani apparel in these markets and a suitable percentages of last year’s exports as travel or marketing allowance.

Bari, said that apparel industry is one of the five top foreign exchange earners of Pakistan with 23 percent share in total exports and employs about 40 percent of labour force. He listed higher cost of doing business, duty free access to competitors, uneven playing field, burden of multiple taxes are some of the major issues impeding the growth of the apparel sector.

He reacted to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor’s statement of misuse of R and D funds by the textile sector.

He said it would be appropriate if SBP points out any specific case of malpractice or misuse of R and D support by apparel manufactures enabling the sector to investigate the matter jointly with central bank.

He demanded it should be extended for more years with the increase in rate and expanded its scope to other markets.

PAF is comprised of four associations, Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers Association (PHMA), Pakistan Cotton Fashion Apparel Manufacturers Association, Pakistan Readymade Garments, Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA) and Pakistan Knitwear and Sweaters Exporters Association.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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‘Govt to use IT for bringing efficiency’

KARACHI: The Federal IT Minister has said that present government desires to use IT to bring about greater efficiency and transparency within the government, streamline the functioning of the government and at the same time facilitate the citizens by providing them services at their doorsteps.

Qamar Zaman Kaira expressed these remarks during his visit to Electronic Government Directorate (EGD) of the Ministry of Information Technology.

Raza Abbas Shah, Executive Director EGD, briefed minister about the organisational structure of EGD, its growth since inception and major accomplishments to date. The Federal Minister was informed that EGD is executing 40 different IT projects for various Federal Government organisations.

The Minister appreciated the efforts of EGD, which he stated is doing a remarkable effort in automating various processes of the Federal Government and assisting it in making their services available online to citizens.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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Pakistan transit fee ‘bottleneck’ for IPI

* Pakistan de-links transit fee from gas price: Indian officials​

NEW DELHI: The gas transit fee to be charged by Pakistan remains the bottleneck to finalising the trilateral Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, according to Indian officials.

India is asking Pakistan to lower the transit fee, offering to pay 15 cents per million British thermal unit (mmBtu). Pakistan demands 42 cents mmBtu.

Sources said that during the recent visit of Indian Petroleum Minister Murli Deora to Islamabad, Pakistan had demanded a transit fee of 42 cents per mmBtu and a flat payment of $200 million a year.

A large part of the money will go to providing security and maintenance of the pipeline. India argues that because Pakistan is also using this gas, it should take responsibility for maintaining the pipeline without passing the burden to India.

De-link: Indian officials, however, are happy that Pakistan has agreed to de-link the transit fee from the price of gas. Both countries have decided to settle the final tariff after floating international tenders for work contracts. They are confident that both countries would soon be able to conclude an agreement on the transit fee, transportation charges and project structure.

“As India had agreed to pay 15 cents, it has asked the Pakistani authorities to further reduce the fee and make it nominal, considering that Pakistan would also be using gas for 80 per cent of the pipeline length,” said an official.

India has also renewed its offer to set up a consortium and a role for its state-owned gas transmission company, GAIL, in the construction of the pipeline.

“This would not only allow cost effectiveness and enhanced accountability, but would also help as a confidence-building measure and in pipeline security. Pakistani authorities have an open mind on this issue and will respond shortly,” say officials.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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Government borrowing from SBP hits new peak of Rs 485 billion

KARACHI (May 11 2008): Government borrowing for budgetary support from the State Bank hit new peak of Rs 485 billion during the first 10 months of the current fiscal year mainly due to below the target revenue collection, slow inflows and high subsidies on commodities.

"The central bank already had asked the previous government to minimise its borrowing from SBP, or else the central bank would use its powers to control the borrowing," economists said. But, due to the internal and external shocks government borrowing is continuously on rise," they added.

They said that rising government expenditure, subsidies on commodities (petroleum products and wheat) and slow inflows are chief factors behind excessive borrowing. "Although the government has raised petroleum products' prices, which helped reduce subsidies to greater extent, however during last few months billions of rupees subsidies were given," economists added.

In addition, the government is importing wheat on high rates to meet the local demand, besides providing the commodity to flourmills on subsidised rates to keep its prices stable in the domestic market. These fundamentals have badly hurt the government budgetary target and compelled it to explore other avenues for budgetary support, they said.

The SBP statistics depict that during July to April 26, 2008 net government borrowing for budgetary support grew by Rs 163.884 billion as compared to last fiscal year. After the current upsurge net government borrowing from banking system including the SBP and other banks reached Rs 334.871 billion during July to April 26 of current fiscal year against Rs 170.987 billion during corresponding period of last fiscal year.

The SBP statistics show that the government budgetary borrowing stocks as on June 30, 2007 stood at Rs 810.053 billion and after the current fiscal upsurge of Rs 334.871 billion, the overall government budgetary borrowing stocks reached some Rs 1,144 billion on April 26, 2008.

Major upsurge was witnessed in the borrowing from SBP, which rose by Rs 484.950 billion during the current fiscal year as compared to the upsurge of Rs 3.051 billion during same period of last fiscal year, registering an increase of Rs 140 billion during first 10 months of FY08.

The government sector budgetary borrowing from banks declined by Rs 150 billion during July-April 26, 2008 period, while during corresponding period of last fiscal year it went up by around Rs 168 billion. Economists said that rising budgetary borrowing would increase inflationary pressure on the economy, however, the expected huge inflows would help the government to reduce its borrowings.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Energy conservation: Cabinet to consider Enercon plan shortly

ISLAMABAD (May 11 2008): The Cabinet will shortly consider energy conservation plan put forward by the Enercon, it has been reliably learnt. Sources told Business Recorder that recently Enercon presented a proposal recommending conserving energy. Therefore, a meeting of all stakeholders and concerned departments has been called to discuss the issue.

Sources said that as per the recommendations, the Ministry of Industries will introduce energy efficient water heaters/geysers by June 30; there shall be complete ban on import of more than 5 years old boilers; Since the steel industry presently consuming 700 kWh/ton energy as compared to 250 kWh/ton internationally, therefore, incentivised promotion of high efficiency electric arc furnaces with minimum 50 tons capacity shall be launched.

About 100 textile units will be made energy-efficient, within 100 days of newly elected government, through capacity building of engineers/technician; the Minfal and provincial departments may be directed to undertake mandatory energy audit of tubewells and water pumping stations through consultancy services by Enercon.

Pepco will reduce line losses by 1 percent for achieving 100MW savings; line losses in gas transmission and distribution system will be reduced by 0.5 percent for nearly a billion rupees saving. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources will finally launch the project for replacing inefficient domestic burners in 10 major cities, benefiting over 3 million middle and lower middle class consumers.

The Federal Board of Revenue may allow import of only energy-efficient and duly labelled appliances as per approved standards; the Ministry of Industries will instruct chambers to encourage use of "Time of Use (TOU)" meters for maximum utilisation of off-peak hours.

The government may grant one-time exemption on import duty for 10 million energy savers for free distribution through Discos of 2 million bulbs to charity institutions and low income segment of society and the rest on credit with recovery through utility bills in instalments.

Five years tax holiday may be allowed for domestic industry on energy savers local manufacture, tariff facilitation may be provided by the FBR for import of needed inputs eg insulation, HVAC and other materials/appliances.

Five-day working week may be introduced in government offices for achieving saving of 828MW of electricity in addition to huge savings in gas and fuel bills in transport, as the public and private sectors have shown overwhelming support to this step.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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France to set up FDA to boost economic ties: envoy

KARACHI (May 11 2008): France has decided to set French Development Agency (FDA) in Pakistan to boost existing strong bilateral economic and trade relations between the two countries mainly in energy, education and health sectors and to help in infrastructure development.

This was stated by the French Ambassador to Pakistan Regis de Belenet while speaking at a meeting of the English Speaking Union of Pakistan at a hotel here on Saturday.

He said that many French companies were already doing business in Pakistan in telecom and other sectors. Pakistan was also getting funds from France for infrastructure development and water supply improvement projects in different parts of the country.

The bilateral trade volume between the two countries has touched $1.2 billion mark, however presently it is in the favour of France.

The present trade volume is likely to increase in futures. Regarding export of French cars to Pakistan, he said that very high tariff was an issue in this regard. He also referred to French-Pakistani co-operation in the defence sector.

He said that terrorism has nothing to do with religion and it will be a big mistake to link terrorism with Islam. He said that Pakistan government's talks with the militants in tribal areas may be useful if the militants also responded with same spirit and gave up arms.

He asserted French government's policy against scarf was not discriminatory. He said that over 5 million Muslims are living in France and there is no restriction on their religious activities. There are so many mosques in France, he said. He pointed out that the unrest in Paris was not driven by religion and according to him, it was due to economic and other reasons.

He said that it was not for him to comment on the status of President Musharraf. "President Musharraf's future will depend on his decision and the will of the people Pakistan," he said.

The President English Speaking Union Naveed A. Khan and Bahram D. Avari also spoke on this occasion. The Consulate Generals of different countries including the United States, France, Germany, Poland and other countries were also present on this occasion, while a number of members of the ESU attended the event.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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ADB mission to review reform proposals

LAHORE (May 11 2008): A mission of Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Saturday held a meeting with the Secretary of Commerce and Investment Department (C&I), Tahir Raza Naqvi to review reform proposals for the Sub-Programme-II of the Punjab Government Efficiency Improvement Programme Public Resource Management Reforms II.

An official said Naqvi told the mission about the performance of his department, especially, developed a project portfolio focusing on public private partnerships and private sector development. He said projects like the Establishment of Industrial Estates Management and Development Companies were clear examples of public private partnerships where private sector entrepreneurs led board of directors. He said his government was backing it in terms of access to land and credit lines.

"The C&I Department is working on many public private partnerships investment proposals such as the Fairmont Hotel [Prince Waleed bin Talal, the UAE], livestock, real estate, SEZ projects with Aatris, JV Real Estate Development Project with Emaar Group, OPE SEZ and MAKRO and there are certain projects which are in pipeline at POI level inducing Feed Mill/Breeder Farm by CP Group Thailand," he added.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Pakistan April trade gap widens to $2.29 bln

ISLAMABAD, May 10 - Pakistan's trade deficit widened to $2.29 billion in April, compared with $1.1 billion in April last year, Statistic Bureau said on Saturday.

Exports stood at $1.8 billion in April this year, as against $1.47 billion in the same period last year.

Imports were worth $4.1 billion compared with $2.57 billion last year.

"The increase in imports was mainly on account of higher oil prices and that of other commodities and there was a fairly decent growth in exports," said Asif Qureshi, head of research at Invisor Securities Ltd.

"Pakistan needs to find a solution to developing domestic energy sources," he added.

The deficit in April also widened 12.5 percent from the $2.04 billion defict posted in March.

The cumulative deficit for the 10 months July-April stood at $16.8 billion, widening nearly 51 percent from the $11.14 billion posted in the same period a year ago.

Exports for the 10 months totalled $15.25 billion, compared with $13.85 billion in the year ago period.

Imports for the 10 months totalled $32.06 billion, up more than 28 percent from the $24.99 billion deficit notched in the year ago period.

Pakistan April trade gap widens to $2.29 bln - Yahoo! Malaysia News
 
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Although this has nothing to do with Pak economy but showcases the success of expat Pakistanis.

Khalid Hussain's vision and hard work drives Pak Supermarket success
by Tom Fleming
Birmingham Post, UK
May 10 2008

Tom Fleming meets Khalid Hussain, who has gone from shelf stacker to the boss of the biggest chain of Asian supermarkets in the country whilst sticking close to his ethnic roots.


When Khalid Hussain collected his young entrepreneur award at the Institute of Asian Businesses gala dinner last November the joke at the ICC was that this was the first night in memory that PAK Supermarket had closed.

If not strictly true it reflects an approach that has seen this 36-year-old businessman rise from stacking the shelves of a small corner shop grocery store to boss of a chain of supermarkets that has just opened a new £8 million superstore.

Like many before him Khalid arrived from Pakistan in the 1970s with little more than the hope of a better future. After initially working on the track at Land Rover, his father together with an uncle opened a small butcher’s and grocery shop on the Lozells Road.

It went well but the first faltering steps towards expansion could hardly have been less auspicious as Khalid explained: "They brought a bigger shop a few doors away and that was the real start of PAK Supermarket but it was in a terrible state and was almost burned down in the first Lozells riots.

"It was a terrible time when no one could do business in the area because people were too scared even to come into the shop."

But persistence and a refusal to be driven out paid dividends and the family started opening other small stores, including one in 1998 in Alum Road that until a few weeks ago was the national headquarters for PAK Supermarket.


The growth also included an expansion out of the group’s West Midlands heartland into South Yorkshire, where a store was opened in the autumn of last year, by which time the business was providing direct employment to about 100 people in the most deprived parts of the region.

By this time, Khalid had long since become the head of the family business. Whilst at school he worked in the stores on Saturdays and during holidays and began working for PAK immediately after finishing his education, initially on the shop floor.

All this changed at just 19 when his father returned to Pakistan for a number of years leaving his son at the head of things: "It was a huge responsibility and there was plenty to learn and more than a few mistakes along the way, but I was always ambitious and had a vision."

As is often the case with people who have 'not had the benefit of an education’ Khalid wants the best opportunities for his son who is now aged 11.

"I want him to go to a good school and to do his best. If he decides to follow me into the family business then that will be good, but it has to be his choice," he said.


But he has no personal regrets about going directly from school to work for PAK Supermarket: "It has been very good for me and I have been very lucky. Had I worked for someone else I could never have enjoyed the lifestyle, opportunities or got the job satisfaction that this gives me."

Khalid knows that although the minority ethnic community has a relatively high proportion of people who are self employed, he knows that for many of them life is a struggle for survival.

"There are many good Asian family businesses but often they start small and stay small without ever fulfilling their full potential. People work very hard but that in itself is not enough, there needs to be a desire to make something bigger and recognition that standing still and surviving is not enough."

He thinks it is no accident that Government statistics show that whilst there are a vast number of small businesses the majority of them never get beyond the survival or subsistence stage.

"There are people who go into business because they see no other option and it is a way to survival. If this is the motivation then it is hardly a surprise that they get no further," he said.

Khalid was always keen that PAK Supermarket should break out and move to a new level. "Although our shops were doing well they were all characterised by being relatively small with limited shelf space, no car parking and it was clear to me that we had to think bigger."

He had to make a step change and that opportunity first presented itself when the site of the derelict former bus depot in Washwood Heath came onto the market three years ago. It was the start of a difficult journey with plenty of pitfalls along the way.

"I immediately recognised the potential of the site. It was in the right place and gave me the space I needed, but there were big challenges not least of which was that there were other interested buyers that were looked upon more favourably.

"In the end I bought the land without planning permission, which was a big gamble, but we finally got consent for the supermarket in June 2006."

Construction started five months later but even then things did not run smoothly as problems with the building works had to be solved. An original plan to open on Pakistan Independence Day in August last year came and went, as did other scheduled opening dates.

As is usually the way with these things the final cost of £8 million has turned out higher than was planned, but eventually the target of opening on April 1 was agreed.

The store did welcome its first customers, but gremlins with the IT system stepped in and after just a few hours it was necessary to close in order to sort things out so the proper opening happened two days behind schedule.

"It is to be expected that there will be teething troubles in any major project, but customers do not expect problems and after so much hard work the glitch was very disappointing," he says.

So after a long and far from easy pregnancy it was a difficult birth but now the baby is looking fit and well.

"I am having to learn a new way or working. In the past I have been very much the boss and have done everything but this project has required appointing a management team including a finance director, buyer and someone to head up human resources and IT.

"We have taken great trouble to try to select good people but it is hard to delegate when you have been used to making all the big decisions yourself. Heading a family business is not like working for someone else because it is very personal and letting go is very hard. I still spend a lot of time on the sales floor and if there is a problem with a display or something I will fix it myself.

"The team look after key aspects of the business and in recent months all my attention has been on the new supermarket which means I have much less involvement in the running of our other stores that remain very important to the business."

For 30 years the key customers for PAK Supermarket have been people from the Pakistani community and a key objective is to diversify and broaden the customer base beyond its traditional core.

"Ninety per cent of our customers have been from the Pakistani community. They will always be very important to us because these are the people that have given us everything we have and so we must make sure that we continue to give them the service at the same level and even better than we have in the past.

"But to grow the business it is essential to broaden our appeal and we intend this new store to become the place to come for quality ingredients for food from all ethnic traditions including Indian, Bangladeshi, African-Caribbean, the Middle East, Arabia and Africa. There is also a growing demand for the foods of Eastern Europe and we are going to cater for that need as well.

"People are much more adventurous with cuisine these days with travel all over the world and so people want to be cosmopolitan with their food and cook the meals at home that they enjoyed on holiday and this presents us with a great opportunity. We already have people coming to shop with us from as far away as Leicester and I want PAK to have a regional reputation for supplying top quality authentic ingredients for ethnic food from all over the world.

"However, it is not just ethnic food that we sell. All of the best-known consumer brands are on our shelves. The store also includes its own bakery, there is a customer restaurant and another first for PAK is that we are selling a range of non- food household goods."

Khalid Hussain rejects a suggestion that the worst economic outlook for at least 15 years is not a very good time to launch the new supermarket. Plans for further expansion and other bigger stores are in the pipeline.

"Our core product is good food at a good price and people will always need to look after their stomachs no matter how bad the economy gets. If we were retailing luxury or higher end consumables where there is discretionary spend I would be worried but we are providing the staples of life.

"There are exciting plans for the future with bigger stores, expansion into other parts of the country and a refurbishment programme for some of our smaller shops. But for the time being the priority is to consolidate, iron out any wrinkles and make sure the new supermarket is a success. Our new store is eight times bigger than any of our other outlets and so the scale is very different and we need to absorb the lessons."

Another reflection of scale is the number of employees with nearly 100 new direct jobs created at the new supermarket, almost doubling the size of the PAK payroll.

"One of the things I am very proud of is our contribution to regeneration in one of the poorest parts of Birmingham. When we were recruiting Jobcentre had a special open day for us and that was great.

"In addition to the direct jobs we are working closely with local suppliers like East End Foods and KTC which boosts the local economy. The construction of the shop took eight months and that resulted in spending locally by the building workers. We are attracting people into Washwood Heath from other parts of the West Midlands and this is bringing money into the local community. It is not just PAK that will benefit from what we have done.

"This is practical regeneration from the grass roots, not a grand strategic plan on some civil servant's desk. We have done all of this without a penny from the public purse," he says.

Still only in his mid-30s Khalid has come a long way in a short time and is not going to rest on his laurels.

"There is no great secret to our success. You need a vision, ambition, hard work and perseverance through the hard times, combined with a reasonable share of luck.

"If the West Midlands is to prosper as a region we have to unlock the latent potential of many more entrepreneurs from the minority ethnic community and part of that is getting people to believe that because you start small you do not have to stay small.

"When they look at what we have achieved in moving PAK Supermarket from a small corner shop Asian grocery store to a national chain with ambitious plans for the future I hope they get a glimpse of what is possible."
 
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Maintaining foreign exchange reserves around $15 billion level biggest challenge

The biggest challenge for management of short-term balance of payments is to maintain foreign exchange reserves to a level of around US $15 billion over the next few months while financing the substantial uncovered gap in financing. More adequate reserves are necessary to ward off the speculators in the liberal global framework in which Pakistan is operating.

This was stated in a report titled "State of the Economy: Challenges and Opportunities" launched by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) of the Beaconhouse National University. The report was prepared by a team of eminent economists-Sartaj Aziz, Shahid Javed Burki, Dr Hafiz A. Pasha, Dr Parvez Hasan, Dr Akmal Hussian and Dr Aisha Ghaus-Pasha.

The authors of the report support the Finance Minister's plans to shore up reserves by US $2.5 billion, presumably, at least partially, with support from friendly countries. With recent downward moves in the value of the rupee, the report says Pakistan's exchange rate does not need any significant once-and-for-all realignment. However, it is important to lay down the policy that the real effective exchange rate will not be allowed to appreciate in the near future.

In others words, the much higher rate of inflation in Pakistan than in its competitors will be allowed to be reflected in the change in the nominal rate against a basket of currencies. Otherwise, the competitiveness of our exports would suffer and import growth will be artificially stimulated. The approximately 6-percent appreciation of the rupee between 2004-05 and 2006-07 may be one factor explaining the slow down in exports and continued rapid growth of imports, the report adds.

Regarding balance of payment adjustments, the report says the current account deficit is so large and the need for curtailing it as well as curbing speculative pressures on the exchange rate is so urgent, that fiscal and monetary policies would have to be strongly supported by trade, exchange rate and foreign exchange policies and confidence building measures such as adopting a strong export orientation and clearly articulate external finance strategy.

According to the report, the current account balance of payments deficit in the 2007-08 is likely to be around 7.5-percent of GDP. The authors of the report believe that this should be reduced to 5-percent of GDP in 2008-09 and 4-percent in 2009-10.

In their view, Pakistan can safely run current account balance of payments deficits of this latter magnitude provided export growth recovers to at least 10-percent per annum, private transfers remain strong and supply of concessionary assistance remains ample. Equally important, limiting the deficit to 4-percent of GDP would bring the saving-investment gap (a measure of self-reliance) to 15-20-percent range from a record 33-percent imbalance likely to be recorded this year.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Multinational companies responsible for price hike

Despite the official claims that country's economic situation is much better than before and the government's reluctance to get further loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the condition of poor people is going from bad to worse day by day due to uncontrolled and sky-rocketing price hike.

According to a report foreign investment is a major source of ongoing price hike as a large number of multinational companies, especially the mobile companies, are responsible for extra burden on poverty-hit people.

The daily advertisements by these multinational companies through electronic as well as print media have made imperative for every citizen to buy expensive mobile sets, which caused a major dissatisfaction among the masses.

In such circumstances, the chances of development of a country are impossible. As every coming government tries its level best to increase foreign investment thinking that investment would help eliminate poverty but instead of that the country plunged into turmoil and such extra burden brought more difficulties and miseries for the masses.

To tackle the situation, an austerity drive by the government could pull the country out of such crisis as internal resources are more credible than foreign investment.

All the developed countries of the world have followed such drives by using their own resources instead of foreign investments and encouraged own industries instead of such foreign investments.

For example Japan had established heavy industries and sold these industries to rich business families of the country, which helped it in getting rid of foreign loans and at present Japan is an economically strong country. Pakistan has such resources but the rulers always depend on foreign investment instead of sincere efforts and doors remained open always for foreign investment.

Pakistan has become a lucrative country for these multinational companies as they are not bound to get permission from the government regarding increase in the prices and durability of their products. There was a trend in the country that due to the investment by these companies, the living condition of the people is going to improve day by day but the situation is quite different on the ground. There will be no way-out for Pakistani government if these multinational companies closed down their business from the country.

All the multinational companies working in the country have never bothered about the price hike as they are not answerable to the government. It is pertinent to mention here that these companies are not free in their countries of origin to increase the prices of their products on their own.

The beverage companies have also increased prices manifold in the last three years. These multinational companies have also increased the prices of medicines. The government of Pakistan has always discouraged the savings schemes and banks were restricted to give only 2 to 3 per cent interest despite the fact that the Pakistan government has fixed Euro Bond price at about 6 percent in the international market. Savings are always discouraged and the country remains always dependent on foreign loans.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Devaluation trend discouraging foreign investment

Traders Chamber Chief Khawaja Muhammad Shafiq said the present devaluation trend of the Pakistani rupee is creating panic among trade and industry quarters in the country and it must be stopped.

In a statement here Sunday he said that this trend must be arrested immediately otherwise it will be disastrous for the national economy, and asserted that the State Bank of Pakistan is not playing its due role to control the situation.

He said the ramifications of devaluation would negatively impact the industry as well as discourage foreign investment in the country's stock exchange. Petroleum prices will escalate further, while prices of imported edible oil will be increased and overall exports will be affected due to higher cost of production in the wake of increased utility rates, he said.

Devaluation will discourage foreign investment in the industrial sector owing to reduction in profits in dollar terms, he said, adding that the prices of importable manufacturing raw material will also increase, which will also affect our export-oriented industry.

He said that foreign national debt would also increase in rupee terms, while the overall inflationary pressure could even affect the law and order situation, he cautioned. Khawaja suggested that trade deficit must be narrowed in order to arrest the current devaluation, adding that the coalition government should increase the rate of import duty on foreign assembled vehicles, which is the largest single source of current huge trade deficit, he added.

He also advised that more non-traditional goods like pharmaceutical drugs/medicines should be promoted for export, as this segment has not been properly tapped. Compared to India we are far behind in this sector, while our pharmaceutical products are equally good in price, economy and efficacy, he maintained.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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THE RUPEE: chaos makes vulnerable

Hovering anxiety over the political and economic fronts pushed the rupee into the minus column during the week ended on May 10, 2008. Earlie, the rupee had started shedding its losses versus dollar following the cautious moves by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to take the rupee to a certain level.

In the interbank market, the rupee shed 70 paisa in terms of dollar for buying to Rs 66.50 and by 115 paisa for selling at 67.00. In the open market, the rupee dropped 125 paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 67.90 and 68.00, respectively.

The rupee also lost 210 versus euro for buying and selling at Rs 104.80 and Rs 104.90, respectively. Highly volatile sessions were observed in the currency market as the rupee was not able to stand with its counterparts despite the repeated warnings by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor to the heads of the money exchange companies to ward off speculative buying of the US currency and adopt preventive steps, which could help in recovery versus dollar.

The SBP Governor Dr Shamshad Akhter also asked them to avoid irregularities and also take measures to bring stability in the rupee value versus major currencies.

Meanwhile, during the last couple of sessions, the rupee started recovering versus dollar following the remarks by the governor of the central bank, in which she said that inflows of 3.5 billion dollars were expected in the country, likely to bring stability in the value of the rupee in the coming days.

In a meeting with the heads of the exchange companies, the SBP governor warned it may impose severe administrative control over foreign exchange market "if the market fails to discipline itself".

The country is facing a lot of complications on both political and economic fronts due to lack of strong leadership. Majority in this country consists of poor and they do not know the smoke is going out of their kitchens.

The changes in governments and their policies should now be switched over for betterment of 85 percent people of Pakistan, who are waiting for relief. The authorities should make use of the constitution, which had been, unfortunately offered to people quite late. It begins in the name of Almighty Allah.

INTER-BANK MARKET: On Monday, the rupee lost 68 paisa against the US currency for buying at 65.80 and 70 paisa for selling at 65.85.

On Tuesday, the rupee did not show major change against the dollar for buying at 65.80 while it shed five paisa for selling at 65.90.

On Wednesday, the rupee lost 80 paisa for buying and selling at 66.60 and 66.70.

On Thursday, the ruee fell 50 paisa against dollar for buying at 67.10 and 45 paisa for selling at 67.15. On Friday, the rupee lost 150 paisa against dollar to Rs 68.60 and 1.75 for selling at 68.90.

On Saturday, the rupee recovered 210 paisa versus dollar for buying at Rs 66.50 and 190 paisa for selling at 67.00.

GLOBAL DOLLAR SCENARIO: In the first session of the week, the dollar gave up its last week's gains partly on better-than-expected US job figures, drifting lower against the euro and yen, dealers said.

In morning trades, the dollar changed hands at 105.29 yen from 105.39 yen late Friday. Volumes were light with the Tokyo markets closed Monday and Tuesday for holidays.

The euro was at 1.5447 dollars, up from 1.5422 on Friday in late US trades. During the second session, the US dollar was broadly weaker as doubts resurfaced about the health of the US economy while record oil prices lifted commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar.

Even the Australian dollar rose as a tentative pick up in risk appetite boosted high-yielders but it retreated after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate steady and said aggregate demand in the economy was significantly lower.

The dollar edged up during the third session of the week after a Federal Reserve official said that interest rates will eventually need to be raised, highlighting that the Fed may be done relaxing policy after its aggressive run of rate slashes.

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said late on Tuesday that rates will need to be raised in a timely way as the central bank grapples with a serious threat of inflation, helping the dollar against the euro. In third session, the dollar inched up versus the major currencies. During the fourth session, the euro extended its losses in relation the dollar.

In the fifth round of trading session in the Asia, the euro recovered and held its firmness against the dollar after rebounding from a two-month low on reduced expectations for European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said last Thursday that inflation remained his top concern, suggesting the bank won't cut interest rates any time soon.

The euro had fallen to a two-month trough below 1.53 dollars as some investors expected Trichet to temper his tough talk on inflation and focus on signs of slowing euro zone growth. According to an analysis, the dollar could gain modestly next week provided April US retail sales don't fall more than expected when data is released on Tuesday, and as investors focus on any more signs of slowing growth in the euro zone.

Analysts said market perceptions that the euro's rally since September was running out of steam should also support the dollar in a week loaded with economic data from both the United States and Europe. "As far as the US data goes, retail sales are going to be important because they are going to show just how much of a toxic effect gas prices have had on consumer behaviour," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at DailyFX.com in New York.

OPEN MARKET RATES: On May 5, the rupee fell by 85 paisa against dollar for buying at 66.65 and selling at 66.75. The rupee shed 30 paisa against euro for at Rs 102.70 and 102.80. On May 6, the rupee lost 30 paisa in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 66.95 and 67.05, dealers said.

The rupee also failed to resist erosion in its value versus the euro, losing 80 paia for buying and selling at Rs 103.50 and Rs 103.60, they said.

On May 7, the rupee did not show any change in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 66.95 and 67.05, while it extended its overnight slide versus euro, losing further 20 paia for buying and selling at Rs 103.70 and Rs 103.80.

On May 8, the rupee lost 75 paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 67.70 and 67.80, respectively, while it gained 47 paisa versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 103.23 and Rs 103.33. On May 9, the rupee lost 50 paisa versus the dollar for buying and selling at 68.20 and 68.30. The rupee shed 137 paisa versus euro to Rs 104.60 and Rs 104.70.

On May 10, the rupee recovered 70 paisa versus dollar for buying and selling at 66.50 and 67.00, while it shed 20 paisa in terms of 20 paisa versus euro for buying and selling at Rs 104.80 and 104.90, respectively.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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