Pakistan needs to tap hydropower potential: World Bank
FAISALABAD (April 24 2008): Energy is the lifeline of economic development, but unfortunately, Pakistan has historically suffered from energy shortages and demand suppression because of limited supplies and lack of adequate infrastructure development for provision of energy to the industrial sector.
Furthermore, the capacity of Pakistan's existing reservoirs (Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma) has declined by 27 percent and the cumulative decline will increase to 35 percent by 2012 and to 57 percent by 2025.
According to World Bank study report, the major energy consuming sectors of the country are: industrial (38 percent), transport (32 percent), residential and commercial (25 percent), agriculture (2.5 percent) and others (2.5 percent).
The lack of sustained and affordable energy to industry has restrained economic growth and created declining trends for industrial investment in the country. The per capita energy consumption, which is one of the key development indicators as well as measures of quality of life of a country, is low with only 14 million BTU, as compared to 92 million BTU for Malaysia and 34 million BTU for China, the report said.
Currently, the power sector is experiencing acute shortages. Electricity sales rose 40 percent in the last five years (ending June 30, 2007), while generation capacity remained practically stagnant. It is estimated that the system lacks about 2,000 MW to cover current demand with acceptable reliability. Demand, however, is expected to grow at expected rate of 7-8 percent per year in the medium-term.
The WB report observed that this requires accelerated expansion in the power generation systems for which Pakistan has to tap hydropower potential. With multipurpose storages and cost sharing among other sectors (irrigation, domestic water use, flood, environment etc), high altitudes in the north with substantial water flows and relatively sparse population in these areas, the hydropower is most attractive source of energy for Pakistan. However, the country has developed only 15 percent of its estimated 40,000 MW of economically viable potential, a proportion much lower than neighbouring countries (India and China utilise over 30 percent of potential) and much lower than industrialised countries (which utilise around 75 percent).
At present, Pakistan is planning for hydropower to provide about half of new generation in the medium term, since it has recognised that the value of power is not subject to market volatility, that it generates substantial local economic multipliers (the mostly-local construction content of hydropower is about 80 percent versus about 20 percent for thermal power), and that it provides high-value peaking power (which is likely to be worth about four times the value of a unit of base load).
When river flow is variable, storage is required so that water supply can more closely match demand. Lack of storage capacity and control structures is another major constraint to proper water resources management in Pakistan.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]