Raise in uplift spending widens deficit to 0.9 percent of GDP: ADB
FAISALABAD (August 19 2007): Rapid rise in development spending in Punjab has widened the FY2006 deficit to 0.4 percent of provincial GDP, while more increases in development spending are expected in FY2007, disclosed study report of West Asia Department (CWRD) of Asian Development Bank.
From FY2001 to FY2006, ADB study mentioned, Punjab government has increased development spending by 31 percent per year, addressing gaps in social services and infrastructure development that had accumulated during a period of low expenditure in the 1990s.
This rapid rise in development spending widened the FY2006 deficit to 0.4 percent of provincial GDP. More increases in development spending are expected in FY2007, including the capitalisation of the pension and the general provident fund (GPF) and financing for the special infrastructure programme recently launched by the government. This will further widen the fiscal deficit to 0.9 percent of provincial GDP in FY2007.
According to report, the special infrastructure programme will continue to receive large allocations until FY2009, when increases will taper off. As the federal government pushes to sustain economic growth, the Punjab government has also positioned itself to boost economic development.
The Punjab's performance is essential to national economic growth, since the province accounts for about 57 percent of Pakistan's GDP. World Bank estimates show that between FY2002 and FY2006, the annual GDP growth of the Punjab ranged from 4.7 percent to 10 percent.
Underlying this have been the sound economic policies and fiscal management of the Punjab government, which have enabled it to increase development spending. Government revenues have increased by 15 percent annually, while the annual growth rate of recurring expenditures has been maintained at 10 percent.
Fiscal reforms have reduced untargeted subsidies by 28 percent annually. Replacing federal government debt with foreign debt has lowered interest payments to 4.2 percent a year in FY 2007 from 11.3 percent in FY 2003, enabling the Punjab government to implement wide-ranging reforms.
With the deficit kept below 1 percent of GDP, ADB report observed that the increases in development spending do not pose an immediate risk to fiscal stability. Nonetheless, the Punjab government is fully aware that projected expenditures cannot be funded solely by the provincial budget.
It is therefore exploring public-private partnerships for project financing and implementation. If its fiscal stability is threatened, the Punjab government is ready to implement measures to reallocate expenditures toward priority sectors and to cap the development budget at the FY2007 level.
While there has been an increase in the public debt in the Punjab, as a percentage of provincial GDP the debt burden eased from 7.7 percent in FY2001 to 5.9 percent in FY2006. Further declines are anticipated in the future, reducing the public debt to 3.7 percent of provincial GDP by FY2010.
The Punjab government has also made headway in structural reforms supported by the PRMP. It has successfully introduced a medium-term budgeting framework and preparations are fairly advanced for rolling 3-year projections for fiscal resources and broad sectoral ceilings that will start in FY2008. The Punjab government is also moving ahead with pension reforms.
On March 7, 2007 the provincial assembly passed the Pension Fund Act 2007 and earmarked funds totalling Rs 12 billion ($198 million) for both pension and GPF reforms. These positive developments, coupled with the government's strong fiscal position, have prepared the Punjab for the next generation of reforms.
The province of the Punjab is poised to move forward with the introduction of a medium-term expenditure framework to link expenditures closely with results, implementation of further pension reforms, civil service reforms to enhance government responsiveness to the public and to improve the delivery of public services, and the creation of an enabling environment conducive to private sector growth, ADB report added.
The ADB experts observed that the Punjab government has demonstrated strong commitment to the PRMP reforms and has also strongly supported the capacity building initiatives under the TA loan and other TA grants. The government has made considerable progress in implementing the reforms agreed under the PRMP, despite the technical complexities inherent in public sector adjustment programmes.
Of the 39 second-tranche policy achievement targets, 26 have been fully complied with, six have been substantially complied with, six have been partially complied with, and one requested to be waived. All other reform directions have been broadly on track.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]