April 06, 2007
LSM growth target may not be achieved
By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, April 5: Large-scale manufacturing growth has slowed down in the last few months owing to capacity-constraints in some of the leading industries and slower demand in others, showing signs that 13 per cent LSM growth target for the current fiscal year may not be achieved.
According to the official data available with Dawn, the LSM has grown at a rate of 9.98 per cent in the first seven months (July-January) of the current fiscal year.
The statistics collected by the ministry of industries and production directly from industrial units are based on 37 leading industrial sectors, which account for 45 per cent of the overall manufacturing.
Traditionally, LSM data is compiled and made public by the Federal Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis.
Therefore, the data has been used to determine trends, given the fact that firm data on manufacturing output is not available beyond first three months of the fiscal year.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the delay in the release of usual monthly data on LSM by the Federal Bureau of Statistics after September 2007, was making it impossible to make any assessment of the industrial performance.
ââ¬ÅThis failure to provide timely data is quite troubling, not only for the implications of macroeconomic decision-making, but also for the credibility of the institutions and official statistics.ââ¬Â
The ministry of industries data suggests that many industries showing substantial growth in the first quarter (July-September) performed dismally in the next four months, and it was resulting in a significant fall in the overall output.
For example, cotton cloth, cotton yarn, caustic soda, cars and jeeps and tractors grew at the rate of 14.3 per cent, 13.3 per cent, 12.4 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively, in the first three months of the current fiscal,but their growth rate slowed down to 9.6, 11.5, 7.3, 5.32 and 2.81 per cent, respectively.
Overall, automobile sector grew by 6.8 per cent, which was significantly lower than 28.6 per cent growth of the same period last year and lowest in the last five years.
This slowdown, according to the central bank, was due to capacity-constraints, slowing demand growth and imports.
Moreover, growth of cares and jeeps in the first six months decelerated to 8.4 per cent as compared to 30.5 per cent of the same period last year.
Similarly, some industries which were growing slower than last year remained dull even at the end of seven months. These also included almost all petroleum products, fertilisers, electricity meters, fans, bulbs, television sets and bicycles.
The statistics indicate that the entire fertiliser sector was no more growing because of capacity-constraints and the situation would remain so even next year.
The fertiliser sectorââ¬â¢s production declined by 3.1 per cent in the first seven months and stood at 3.598 million tons compared with 3.713 million tons of the same period last year.
Of this, urea production reduced nominally by 0.65 per cent, while ammonium nitrate dropped by 6.3 per cent. The nitrogen phosphate fell by a drastic 22 per cent to 169,000 tons in seven months of the current year compared with 216,000 tons last year.
Likewise, NPK production dropped by more than 46 per cent while nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilisers decreased by 2.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively.
Sugar production in seven months increased by more than 23 per cent to 1.66 million tons compared with 1.347 million tons last year. The production of cigarettes has increased by 1.35 per cent, while cotton yarn and cloth production grew by 11.5 per cent and 9.57 per cent, respectively.
The production of paper dropped by more than four per cent in the first seven months. A simultaneous reduction in output was also witnessed in printing, writing and packing to the extent of 4.4 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively. Production of chip-board also declined by 4.7 per cent. On the other hand, production of paperboard increased by 7.47 per cent.
The production of soda-ash fell by 1.6 per cent, but that of caustic soda increased by 7.26, although its pace of growth declined from 12.4 per cent when compared with first three months of the current year.
According to an official summary, the items which have shown a decline even in first three months are high- speed diesel (15.6 per cent), furnace oil (12.7pc), phosphatic fertiliser (7.8pc), electricity meters (19.9 per cent), fans (9.1pc), bulbs (10.4pc), TV sets (31.3pc) and bicycles (1.4pc). By the end of seven months, the bicycle production reduced further to 24.5pc.
The government in the annul plan 2006-07 had based its economic growth forecast of seven per cent on the hope that ââ¬Åautomobiles, petroleum products, chemicals, cement, cotton yarn and cloth, textile made-ups, engineering goods, ACs, motorcycles, fertilisers and electronic itemsââ¬Â¦ would be the main growing industriesââ¬Â. It has, however, emerged that the growth of these areas has been slower than last year, lower than the target.
In construction material, glass-sheet production dropped by 12.1 per cent, but cement production increased by 22.69 per cent in seven months to 12.74 million tons.
Similarly, production of coke, pig-iron, rolled billet and HR coils increased significantly by 47 per cent, 51 per cent, 122 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively, while production of inguts and billets, CR coils and galvanised products declined by seven per cent, two per cent, five per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/04/06/ebr1.htm
LSM growth target may not be achieved
By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, April 5: Large-scale manufacturing growth has slowed down in the last few months owing to capacity-constraints in some of the leading industries and slower demand in others, showing signs that 13 per cent LSM growth target for the current fiscal year may not be achieved.
According to the official data available with Dawn, the LSM has grown at a rate of 9.98 per cent in the first seven months (July-January) of the current fiscal year.
The statistics collected by the ministry of industries and production directly from industrial units are based on 37 leading industrial sectors, which account for 45 per cent of the overall manufacturing.
Traditionally, LSM data is compiled and made public by the Federal Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis.
Therefore, the data has been used to determine trends, given the fact that firm data on manufacturing output is not available beyond first three months of the fiscal year.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the delay in the release of usual monthly data on LSM by the Federal Bureau of Statistics after September 2007, was making it impossible to make any assessment of the industrial performance.
ââ¬ÅThis failure to provide timely data is quite troubling, not only for the implications of macroeconomic decision-making, but also for the credibility of the institutions and official statistics.ââ¬Â
The ministry of industries data suggests that many industries showing substantial growth in the first quarter (July-September) performed dismally in the next four months, and it was resulting in a significant fall in the overall output.
For example, cotton cloth, cotton yarn, caustic soda, cars and jeeps and tractors grew at the rate of 14.3 per cent, 13.3 per cent, 12.4 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively, in the first three months of the current fiscal,but their growth rate slowed down to 9.6, 11.5, 7.3, 5.32 and 2.81 per cent, respectively.
Overall, automobile sector grew by 6.8 per cent, which was significantly lower than 28.6 per cent growth of the same period last year and lowest in the last five years.
This slowdown, according to the central bank, was due to capacity-constraints, slowing demand growth and imports.
Moreover, growth of cares and jeeps in the first six months decelerated to 8.4 per cent as compared to 30.5 per cent of the same period last year.
Similarly, some industries which were growing slower than last year remained dull even at the end of seven months. These also included almost all petroleum products, fertilisers, electricity meters, fans, bulbs, television sets and bicycles.
The statistics indicate that the entire fertiliser sector was no more growing because of capacity-constraints and the situation would remain so even next year.
The fertiliser sectorââ¬â¢s production declined by 3.1 per cent in the first seven months and stood at 3.598 million tons compared with 3.713 million tons of the same period last year.
Of this, urea production reduced nominally by 0.65 per cent, while ammonium nitrate dropped by 6.3 per cent. The nitrogen phosphate fell by a drastic 22 per cent to 169,000 tons in seven months of the current year compared with 216,000 tons last year.
Likewise, NPK production dropped by more than 46 per cent while nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilisers decreased by 2.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively.
Sugar production in seven months increased by more than 23 per cent to 1.66 million tons compared with 1.347 million tons last year. The production of cigarettes has increased by 1.35 per cent, while cotton yarn and cloth production grew by 11.5 per cent and 9.57 per cent, respectively.
The production of paper dropped by more than four per cent in the first seven months. A simultaneous reduction in output was also witnessed in printing, writing and packing to the extent of 4.4 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively. Production of chip-board also declined by 4.7 per cent. On the other hand, production of paperboard increased by 7.47 per cent.
The production of soda-ash fell by 1.6 per cent, but that of caustic soda increased by 7.26, although its pace of growth declined from 12.4 per cent when compared with first three months of the current year.
According to an official summary, the items which have shown a decline even in first three months are high- speed diesel (15.6 per cent), furnace oil (12.7pc), phosphatic fertiliser (7.8pc), electricity meters (19.9 per cent), fans (9.1pc), bulbs (10.4pc), TV sets (31.3pc) and bicycles (1.4pc). By the end of seven months, the bicycle production reduced further to 24.5pc.
The government in the annul plan 2006-07 had based its economic growth forecast of seven per cent on the hope that ââ¬Åautomobiles, petroleum products, chemicals, cement, cotton yarn and cloth, textile made-ups, engineering goods, ACs, motorcycles, fertilisers and electronic itemsââ¬Â¦ would be the main growing industriesââ¬Â. It has, however, emerged that the growth of these areas has been slower than last year, lower than the target.
In construction material, glass-sheet production dropped by 12.1 per cent, but cement production increased by 22.69 per cent in seven months to 12.74 million tons.
Similarly, production of coke, pig-iron, rolled billet and HR coils increased significantly by 47 per cent, 51 per cent, 122 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively, while production of inguts and billets, CR coils and galvanised products declined by seven per cent, two per cent, five per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/04/06/ebr1.htm