Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Citigroupââ¬â¢s report lauds Pakistani bondsââ¬â¢ performance
ISLAMABAD: Citigroupââ¬â¢s ââ¬ÅAsian Sovereign Strategy Reportââ¬Â has said that that Pakistanââ¬â¢s bonds have been steadily outperforming comparable bonds in Philippines and Indonesia, since Aug-Septââ¬â¢ 2006.
The Citigroup has released the Asian Sovereign Strategy Report on March 5, analyzing the current and future economic outlook for the ten Asian emerging economies including Pakistan.
On Pakistan, the Citigroup is upbeat on the current economic situation and has positive views on the economic outlook. ââ¬ÅWe saw a significant deceleration of inflation in Jan 07 (6.6 percent from 8.9 percent in Dec 06), largely due to the normalisation of food prices from previous double digit growth rates, but non-food inflation and core inflation also continued to show a decelerating trend,ââ¬Â says the report.
This is also consistent with monetary aggregates released by the central bank, which also shows a slowdown of private sector credit growth (+10.8 percent as of YtD 10 Feb FY07 versus 16.7 percent growth in the same period in FY06), the major drivers of monetary expansion in the previous fiscal year.
On the fiscal outlook, the report says that Pakistan has succeeded in significantly bringing down public debt from more than 90 percent of GDP in FY01 to an estimated 56 percent in FY06, and the IMF estimates it to fall to about 53 percent in FY07, well within the 60 percent of GDP target supposed to be achieved by 2012-13 set by the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005. The Citigroup is also encouraged by the fact that the Central Board of Revenueââ¬â¢s (CBR) preliminary tax collection figures for the first eight months of FY07 was reportedly above target and up by 21 percent Year on Year basis.
On external liquidity, the report sees a diminishing concern, at least for the near term, confirming the relatively firm performance of the Pakistan rupee year-to-date (YtD) despite a widening current account deficit. Gross official reserves (SBP reserves) have gradually climbed up 2 percent YtD in Februaryââ¬â¢07 to $10.85 billion, helped by strong FDI inflows, which rose 70 percent to $2.8 billion in the last seven months of FY07.
What is noteworthy about the FDI figure says the report, is that contrary to perception, this is not driven by privatisation ââ¬â 95 percent of FDI is not privatisation proceeds. The Government is targeting $6 billion (4.25 percent of GDP) of inflows from direct and portfolio investment flows this fiscal year versus $3.87 billion (3 percent of GDP) inflows in previous period.
On privatisation, the report suggests that public de-leveraging should continue given progress on privatisation, with reportedly strong interest in the 51 percent stake of Pakistan State Oil (PSO) whose sale is targeted for completion in June, and plans to hire adviserââ¬â¢s for overseas listing of its stakes in Habib Bank and United Bank, the countryââ¬â¢s second and third largest banks.
On the performance of Pakistanââ¬â¢s sovereign in international capital market the report says that Pakistanââ¬â¢s bonds have been steadily outperforming comparable bonds in Philippines an Indonesia since Aug-Sept 06.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\03\07\story_7-3-2007_pg5_5
Citigroupââ¬â¢s report lauds Pakistani bondsââ¬â¢ performance
ISLAMABAD: Citigroupââ¬â¢s ââ¬ÅAsian Sovereign Strategy Reportââ¬Â has said that that Pakistanââ¬â¢s bonds have been steadily outperforming comparable bonds in Philippines and Indonesia, since Aug-Septââ¬â¢ 2006.
The Citigroup has released the Asian Sovereign Strategy Report on March 5, analyzing the current and future economic outlook for the ten Asian emerging economies including Pakistan.
On Pakistan, the Citigroup is upbeat on the current economic situation and has positive views on the economic outlook. ââ¬ÅWe saw a significant deceleration of inflation in Jan 07 (6.6 percent from 8.9 percent in Dec 06), largely due to the normalisation of food prices from previous double digit growth rates, but non-food inflation and core inflation also continued to show a decelerating trend,ââ¬Â says the report.
This is also consistent with monetary aggregates released by the central bank, which also shows a slowdown of private sector credit growth (+10.8 percent as of YtD 10 Feb FY07 versus 16.7 percent growth in the same period in FY06), the major drivers of monetary expansion in the previous fiscal year.
On the fiscal outlook, the report says that Pakistan has succeeded in significantly bringing down public debt from more than 90 percent of GDP in FY01 to an estimated 56 percent in FY06, and the IMF estimates it to fall to about 53 percent in FY07, well within the 60 percent of GDP target supposed to be achieved by 2012-13 set by the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005. The Citigroup is also encouraged by the fact that the Central Board of Revenueââ¬â¢s (CBR) preliminary tax collection figures for the first eight months of FY07 was reportedly above target and up by 21 percent Year on Year basis.
On external liquidity, the report sees a diminishing concern, at least for the near term, confirming the relatively firm performance of the Pakistan rupee year-to-date (YtD) despite a widening current account deficit. Gross official reserves (SBP reserves) have gradually climbed up 2 percent YtD in Februaryââ¬â¢07 to $10.85 billion, helped by strong FDI inflows, which rose 70 percent to $2.8 billion in the last seven months of FY07.
What is noteworthy about the FDI figure says the report, is that contrary to perception, this is not driven by privatisation ââ¬â 95 percent of FDI is not privatisation proceeds. The Government is targeting $6 billion (4.25 percent of GDP) of inflows from direct and portfolio investment flows this fiscal year versus $3.87 billion (3 percent of GDP) inflows in previous period.
On privatisation, the report suggests that public de-leveraging should continue given progress on privatisation, with reportedly strong interest in the 51 percent stake of Pakistan State Oil (PSO) whose sale is targeted for completion in June, and plans to hire adviserââ¬â¢s for overseas listing of its stakes in Habib Bank and United Bank, the countryââ¬â¢s second and third largest banks.
On the performance of Pakistanââ¬â¢s sovereign in international capital market the report says that Pakistanââ¬â¢s bonds have been steadily outperforming comparable bonds in Philippines an Indonesia since Aug-Sept 06.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\03\07\story_7-3-2007_pg5_5