SBP unclear about achieving targets
KARACHI, Jan 18: The State Bank of Pakistan has advised the government in blunt terms to reduce its dependence on borrowing from the central bank as it is ââ¬Åmost inflationary and it contributes to reserve money growthââ¬Â.
It advises the government of publishing quarterly borrowing targets at the beginning of every period to reduce uncertainty associated with its borrowings.
ââ¬ÅThe high government borrowings and the resulting rise in reserve money, has the potential of re-igniting inflationary pressures,ââ¬Â warns the first quarterly SBP report for 2006-07 released on Thursday.
But the report begins with an optimistic note of achieving 7 per cent economic growth rate despite a few negative factors which are failure of key kharif crops and a fear of large-scale industry coming under adverse effects of electric power shortages in coming months.
While making it clear that the State Bank will ââ¬Åneed to continue tight monetary policy for a longer period,ââ¬Â the report says the inflation is set to exceed the 6.5 per cent initial target and is indicated to range between 6.7 to 7.5 per cent and monetary expansion will be between 13.5 to 14.5 per cent instead of original target of 13.5 per cent in the current fiscal year.
The tone of the report is optimistic but it is tentative in substance when it is indicating expected growth in industrial production, exports and revenue while expressing concern on governmentââ¬â¢s dependence on borrowing from the banking sector and decline in indirect taxes. The report is a central bank review of economic performance of the first quarter ââ¬â July-September 2006 ââ¬â but it has given numbers from July to October 2006 and July to November 2006 in certain areas.
Inflation seems to be the dominating theme of the State Bank report for the first quarter as State Bank of Pakistan Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar in her remarks on Thursday made it clear that price stability remains the prime objective of the central bank but then it does not mean economic growth has been relegated to secondary position in importance.
ââ¬ÅWhile an anticipated recovery in large-scale manufacturing is likely to be realised, it seems that achieving a 13 per cent growth target may prove difficult,ââ¬Â is how the SBP report is optimistic and tentative on industrial growth.
Similarly, the weak performance by three major kharif crops - cotton, rice and maize ââ¬â had reduced the probability of a sharp rebound by agriculture, though even here, the value addition is likely to be an improvement over the preceding year if contribution from the livestock and the wheat crops remains strong. While dropping hints on less than expected growth in large-scale industry and agriculture, the SBP report pins all hopes on the services sector ââ¬Åto turn in an above the target growthââ¬Â.
It reports acceleration in growth of large-scale manufacturing in first quarter of FY07 to 9.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent in the same quarter of FY06. This growth was led by textiles, electronics, chemicals and metals.
The report claims of ââ¬Åsomewhatââ¬Â easing of inflationary pressures in the current fiscal year which it attributes to its tight monetary policy but stresses for a further reduction in domestic inflation to ensure improvement in export competitiveness and a better return to bank savers. ââ¬ÅCore inflation has already dropped significantly,ââ¬Â the report claims while attributing it to its monetary policy to point out the instability in inflation is driven by food prices.
Food inflationary pressures, the report says, could be better controlled by improvement in supply of key staples and to take suitable administrative measures as were taken in Ramazan.
According to report the collection of indirect taxes declined in the first quarter that is attributed to deceleration in imports coupled with higher growth in development expenditure. But direct tax collections improved and State Bank hopes that this should considerably offset the loss of indirect tax reduction.
ââ¬ÅHowever, if any revenue shortfall do emerge, the impact on fiscal account should be sterilised through curtailing expenditure and makes a specific reference to non-discretionary and non-development expenditure,ââ¬Â the report suggesting the possibilities of adjustments and appropriation in the budget in coming weeks and months.
The report calls persistent large-scale current account deficits ââ¬Åundesirable in the medium termââ¬Â but declares in clear terms that Pakistanââ¬â¢s present current account deficit is not yet a serious problem. It is because the current account deficit is forecast at 4.5 per cent which it says is manageable, the country is in a position to comfortably finance the deficit through strong non-debt flows also by taking at relatively favourable terms and that Pakistanââ¬â¢s GDP ratio is on decline.
As leading international rating companies continue upgrading Pakistanââ¬â¢s credit rating position, it manifests Pakistanââ¬â¢s comfortable debt-to-GDP ratio.
But then the State Bank advises the government to demonstrate its commitment of fiscal discipline because it is crucial in reassuring international investors, thereby supporting a further improvement in the countryââ¬â¢s credit rating.
A slowdown in Pakistanââ¬â¢s exports has surprised the State Bank of Pakistan which has contributed to the widening trade deficit. The report announces support in all measures that aim to reduce cost of doing business.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/01/19/ebr1.htm