Owais
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SBP set to reaffirm tight monetary stance
KARACHI (updated on: July 25, 2006, 15:18 PST): The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to reaffirm its tight monetary stance when it unveils its half-year policy statement on Saturday, analysts said.
The SBP is also likely to voice growing concerns over the country's rising external deficit, they said.
But analysts doubted whether the bank would opt for any significant depreciation of the rupee, although the carefully managed currency has been allowed to ease very gradually.
"It is very likely that the central bank will once again highlight its concerns regarding the growing external and fiscal imbalances," said Asif Qureshi, head of research at brokers Invisor Securities.
"But it is unlikely that it would allow a weakening of the rupee, as it apparently wants a stable exchange rate," he said.
The bank has raised concerns over a current account balance that has swung from a $1.8 billion surplus in 2003/04 to an estimated $5.7 billion deficit in 2005/06.
But despite the ballooning deficit, the rupee shepherded by the central bank, has held largely steady.
On Tuesday, it traded at 60.31/33 per dollar, less than one percent weaker than its exchange rate in January.
"In the short run, there is very little chance of a weakening in the rupee," said Mohammed Sohail, director of research at Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets.
"Maybe three months from now, the central bank may allow a two percent depreciation, but not at the moment," he said.
Invisor's Qureshi said the central bank was trying to facilitate exporters through interest rate concessions instead of a weaker rupee.
The central bank has already announced a reduction of 1.50 percentage points in its export refinance rate to 7.5 percent.
NO LOOSENING EXPECTED
Analysts said the central bank was unlikely to change its tight monetary policy stance despite a fall in headline inflation.
In 2005/06, inflation in Pakistan, as measured by the consumer price index, stood at an average of 7.92 percent, compared with 9.28 percent a year ago.
The government is targeting to reduce inflation to 6.5 percent in 2006/07.
Earlier this month, the central bank said in its quarterly economic review that a loosening of monetary policy was not advisable while inflation pressure remained and growth was strong.
A few days later, it raised the mandatory cash reserve requirement (CRR) for banks to 7.0 percent from 5.0 percent, in an attempt to check money supply and control private sector credit growth, and thereby counter inflation.
It also raised the statutory liquidity requirement (SLR) for banks to 18 percent from 15 percent.
"These moves are a clear signal that the central bank will continue its tight monetary stance despite the fact that headline inflation is coming down," said Sohail.
KARACHI (updated on: July 25, 2006, 15:18 PST): The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to reaffirm its tight monetary stance when it unveils its half-year policy statement on Saturday, analysts said.
The SBP is also likely to voice growing concerns over the country's rising external deficit, they said.
But analysts doubted whether the bank would opt for any significant depreciation of the rupee, although the carefully managed currency has been allowed to ease very gradually.
"It is very likely that the central bank will once again highlight its concerns regarding the growing external and fiscal imbalances," said Asif Qureshi, head of research at brokers Invisor Securities.
"But it is unlikely that it would allow a weakening of the rupee, as it apparently wants a stable exchange rate," he said.
The bank has raised concerns over a current account balance that has swung from a $1.8 billion surplus in 2003/04 to an estimated $5.7 billion deficit in 2005/06.
But despite the ballooning deficit, the rupee shepherded by the central bank, has held largely steady.
On Tuesday, it traded at 60.31/33 per dollar, less than one percent weaker than its exchange rate in January.
"In the short run, there is very little chance of a weakening in the rupee," said Mohammed Sohail, director of research at Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets.
"Maybe three months from now, the central bank may allow a two percent depreciation, but not at the moment," he said.
Invisor's Qureshi said the central bank was trying to facilitate exporters through interest rate concessions instead of a weaker rupee.
The central bank has already announced a reduction of 1.50 percentage points in its export refinance rate to 7.5 percent.
NO LOOSENING EXPECTED
Analysts said the central bank was unlikely to change its tight monetary policy stance despite a fall in headline inflation.
In 2005/06, inflation in Pakistan, as measured by the consumer price index, stood at an average of 7.92 percent, compared with 9.28 percent a year ago.
The government is targeting to reduce inflation to 6.5 percent in 2006/07.
Earlier this month, the central bank said in its quarterly economic review that a loosening of monetary policy was not advisable while inflation pressure remained and growth was strong.
A few days later, it raised the mandatory cash reserve requirement (CRR) for banks to 7.0 percent from 5.0 percent, in an attempt to check money supply and control private sector credit growth, and thereby counter inflation.
It also raised the statutory liquidity requirement (SLR) for banks to 18 percent from 15 percent.
"These moves are a clear signal that the central bank will continue its tight monetary stance despite the fact that headline inflation is coming down," said Sohail.