AT the peril of earning the ire of Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar, it has to be said that in essence the trade policy 2006-07 looks more like the old wine in a new bottle.
It is difficult to dig out something different in the current policy from the earlier policies. The thrust remains the same: Promotion of exports through diversification of product base and markets.
It would have looked more credible to put the bar a little higher than the conservative targets of $18.6 billion of exports, $28 billion imports and $9.4 billion trade deficit.
Are these targets understated to glorify the governmentââ¬â¢s performance when the actual realization of both import and exports surpass targets in the election year?
The trade policy could be construed to reflect governmentââ¬â¢s resolve not to succumb to the pressure of powerful lobbies for unconditional support in the form of subsidies and blanket exemptions. That aside, the unjustifiable high bound rates have not been revised in the policy reflecting the old mindset in the ministry of commerce that does not hold on its priority list the importance of fetching a respectable place for Pakistan on international trade indexes.
As for the trade with our neighbours, seemingly the current political developments weighed in favour of anti-India lobby within the establishment. That section managed to put measures aimed at establishing closer trade ties with India on the back burner.
It was interesting to watch the commerce minister speak. He opted for a more direct and a professional approach in the policy. In contrast to the verbose politically charged budget speech that was made by the minister of state for finance Omer Ayub Khan, the trade policy speech, mercifully, spared listeners of rhetoricââ¬â¢s. It dealt directly with issues related to trade and commerce.
In his trade policy pronouncements, the commerce minister even hinted at weaknesses in the government efforts to deal with hitches in the way of rapid industrialization.
ââ¬ÂWe are facing a shortage of exportable surpluses and this is proving to be a major obstacle in an effort to rapidly increase our exportsââ¬Â, Humayun Akhtar remarked. At another place in the speech he said, ââ¬Å...the ministry of commerce by itself cannot ensure export growth or contain trade deficit within certain limits. This is because the ministry functions within the overall economic environment of the country and its performance is therefore constrained by the impact other economic policies of the government have, on trade. Here I am referring to monetary and exchange rate policies and of course other policies affecting our GDP growth rateââ¬Â.
The significant patches of the policy included announcement that numbers of trade in services will be disaggregated to plan more rigorously for promotion of trade in this sector. The minister also informed that a decision had been taken to integrate figures of defence and services sector in the overall trade data collected and processed by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. Up until now, trade figures pertain to merchandise exports and imports.
An expert on trade diplomacy who has also served the government termed the trade policy as ââ¬Ëcomprehensiveââ¬Â. ââ¬ÅThe fact that the government is looking towards value-addition and exports diversification is commendableââ¬Â, he said and explained that several initiatives of clean cotton, horticulture development, domestic commerce, fashion design, skill development, long-term financing, were all in the right direction.
But an economist of some repute was not impressed by the policy at all and termed most targets unrealistic. He went as far as to call it all as ââ¬Åwindow dressingââ¬Â. His argument was that ahead of announcing such super-sounding plans as dazzle city and carpet city the commerce minister should have explained how much has actually been achieved on the earlier announced projects of textile city and one village one product schemesââ¬Â.
ââ¬ÅIt all depends on the commitment and willingness of the government to actually implement what it projectsââ¬Â, he commented.
A senior economist felt that the governmentââ¬â¢s declared import, export and trade deficit targets had been pitched a little bit too wayward. ââ¬ÅI fail to understand how will the government contain the import bill at $28 billion when both demand and prices are moving in the same direction and that is towards north?ââ¬Â
On the issue of subsidy and concessions, some businessmen with interests in textile were not happy as the textile package announced a few days before the trade policy was not up to their expectations. The private sector demanded a support of Rs50 billion that they felt was necessary for the sector to cope with the pressures of globalization. Some textile trade bodies started a public campaign through advertisements in local media to pursue their case for more subsidies.
ââ¬ÅIt is not fair to blame government for our failings. It gave support for a very long time. Now it is about time that the private sector gears itself up to meet business related challenges on its ownââ¬Â, Chaudhry Mohammad Saeed, President the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry said from Muzaffarabad over telephone commenting on response of the corporate Pakistan to the trade policy.
ââ¬ÅSome of our colleagues are not ready to grow. They are stuck in ââ¬Ëexemption eraââ¬â¢. They have not done benchmarking. They have not channelised R&D subsidy in a prudent fashion. They have not gone for branding of their products. This has led to falling unit prices, which is very unfortunate. For reversal of the trend, they need to put their own act together instead of again leaning on the governmentââ¬Â, he commented.
The head of countryââ¬â¢s premier trade body thought the trade policy direction to be satisfactory with emphasis on logistic improvements for facilitation and improving the competitiveness. Chaudhry Saeed, however, felt the government needs to do more to simplify procedures to create atmosphere of trust and transparency in the country.
Shabbir Dhanji, President Indo-Pakistan business forum expressed disappointment as he was expecting some concrete measures aimed at enhancing level of trade with India. In the trade policy speech the Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar did refer to South Asia Free Trade Agreement (Safta) when he was listing trade diplomacy initiatives of the government.
ââ¬ÅWe were expecting inclusion of more items on the positive list if nothing else but unfortunately India did not get even a mention in the entire policy speechââ¬Â, he complained. ââ¬ÅIf we improve trade relations it would not be a favour to the Indians; it would be the most logical move for the benefit of both nationsââ¬Â.
Dhanji with interest in auto sector saw scope for both Pakistan and India in establishing closer trade relations. He said and many other businessmen concurred with his view that political bickering had held back the two nations for too long. ââ¬ÅWe must keep walkingââ¬Â, he added.