PAKISTAN Closer to COLLAPSE as Cash & Fuel Run Out & National Electricity Blackout after Shutdown

[datafreak]

.

@datafreak

by July they have 30 BIllion worth of bonds becoming mature. How are they going to get that amount?

Most likely they won't. The loanholders will be forced to roll over the amount; or take a huge provision on them- i.e. both not get the money and recognise a provision. It doesn't take much to figure out which option the loanholders will opt for.

Regards

Who do you think the 'loan holders' are? Saudi/Dubai/ China?

No- many of these are bonds floated in markets, financial institutions, retail investors and stuff. Try telling Morgan Stanley they need to give a 'provision'. The only provision they have for defaulters is to break legs.

 

[Arsalan345]

There is still time. the establishment can still sideline this government and bring back Khan otherwise citizens will be on the roads. This is it. this is the time for a change. I feel there is still a week left. Appoint someone who can deal with other countries, especially India. We all see the real face of China now. People still think that China will help. china only wanted a bankrupt Pakistan. Talk to India.

Open the gates. Allow their trucks. let them trade with us and with Afghanistan. Necessary items can come within 2 to 3 days via the Indian border. Apologize to India for Mumbai and other attacks. Write a letter and send it to Pm Modi. initiate contacts now otherwise it will be too late. Jihadis can't save this country. Supporting jihadis was a mistake that caused a total collapse. Let's work hard, like a civilized society. With Indian assistance, Pakistan can regain lost money and the economy will become stable. We have so much to learn from Americans and Indians.

There are many Pakistanis who think of Indian assistance as a sign of humiliation. Great countries learn from mistakes. our youth should hold books and not guns. It's time to save the country. Matric pass, inter pass, can't save this country now. The corrupt elite has ruined us.

If they still feel humiliated then appoint me. I can make things work. Come on! someone should save my country. Are there any eligible candidates who can handle India diplomatically? I feel there are very few.

 

[epebble]

The only provision they have for defaulters is to break legs.

Sovereign defaults are not like private defaults. There is no legal recourse. Remember the old adage: You borrow a million dollars from bank, the bank owns you. You borrow a billion dollars from bank then you own the bank. The only option they have is rollover or take a haircut. In the current situation, no reasonable analysis can conclude Pakistan can pay its external obligations even over a decade or more. This is a difficult time for lenders too.

 

[HAIDER]

2 billion rollover by UAE , so basically 1.09 billion. ​

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Pakistan’s forex reserves with SBP drop to $3.09bn​

Dawn.com | Reuters Published February 2, 2023 Updated 11 minutes ago

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank decreased by 16.1 per cent to $3.09 billion in the week ending Jan 27, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday, which analysts said covers less than three weeks of imports.

 

[datafreak]

Sovereign defaults are not like private defaults. There is no legal recourse. Remember the old adage: You borrow a million dollars from bank, the bank owns you. You borrow a billion dollars from bank then you own the bank. The only option they have is rollover or take a haircut. In the current situation, no reasonable analysis can conclude Pakistan can pay its external obligations even over a decade or more. This is a difficult time for lenders too.

The 'haircut' is not the problem. There will be an immedeate credit freeze.

It is a confidence game and so dominos start falling-
a) rating plummets so no further bond issues possible
b) no further loans from anyone to tide over the crisis
c) all commodity imports are done on credit so everything including oil stops coming in
d) inflation, already out of control becomes devastating because of shortage
e) SHipping itself stops and insurance companies who insure all shipping increase rates

and on and on it goes in a vicious cycle

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

Time for Pakistan, and India, to work hard on a strong and real peace agreement.
As Egypt with Israel for exemple. They were hard opponents and now are living in peace, without love, but in peace and some respect.

Indians are a different breed.

Indians are worse than the French when it comes to hating Islam.

There will be no peace unless and until India has been balkanized.

 

[epebble]

There will be an immedeate credit freeze.

Anyone with eyeballs can see it is already the case. The only ones lending are essentially considering it as almsgiving (Saudi Arabia, UAE). The lender of last resort, IMF, is asking so many questions that I would have jumped off a building if I were negotiating on Pakistan's side.

 

[datafreak]

Anyone with eyeballs can see it is already the case. The only ones lending are essentially considering it as almsgiving (Saudi Arabia, UAE). The lender of last resort, IMF, is asking so many questions that I would have jumped off a building if I were negotiating on Pakistan's side.

I agree. the credit freeze is already there. Poeple aren't talking about it because the lenders of last resort are still 'negotiating'. But since it now seems that even that option will be nowhere near what is needed to stabilize pak, a default now seems inevatable. And with that the credit crisis will become 'formal'

 

[nahtanbob]

Pakistan has over $275 BILLION of DEBT and requires over $30 BILLION to service its debt and purchase FUEL & FOOD over the next 6 months. An urgent BAILOUT is needed and Pakistan is in discussions with the IMF about a Bailout Loan however the IMF want Pakistan to agree to Terms that they do not like. What is Pakistan going to do?

$275 billion ??

 

[blain2]

Many non-military ways for India to take advantage of this situation.

Even on a military level if it happens during an internal collapse/civil war I don't think any jarnails will have the stomach for civil war when even the people are against each other and them.

Truth is Pakistan is in a massive pile of sh1t and the fact that jarnails still don't care means that they've been completely sold out and taking elders from elsewhere, or just don't give a fu'ck

Let me be very direct here. Is IK the only SoB who cares about Pakistan and every single one of the uniformed people a sell out?

Nobody is taking any orders. This is called geo-political re-alignment which IK clearly had no clue about despite claiming he knows west the best. The same west kicked him to the curb instead of understanding him.

The reason that the entire establishment will continue on this path is because they have already gamed these scenarios many times over on what benefits or harms Pakistan. IK's FP was a disaster for Pakistan. His base keeps on talking about his stance on "Islamophobia" and "Kashmir". Can anyone tell me what tangible difference either of these made? Pakistan's relations with the west in his time went into cold-storage, his relations with China became luke-warm and his relations with Gulf became transactional.

So what "sellout" are we harping over? We need to shut our muzzles and just focus on keeping our bi-lateral relations on track with the West, China and the Gulf. What IK perhaps wanted to present was a posture better suited to a country that has few external dependencies. We have a lot. The establishment is a realist in these matters and does not give a damn about populist sentiments formulating our policies because they lead to dead ends in execution.

Case in point, our policy on Kashmir. The relations are absolutely dead-locked and India has not backtracked on its repression in IoK. What is the alternate? You want another Kargil so you can blame the military? IK's diplomacy has yielded nothing for Pakistan's Kashmir stance.

Islamophobia - Name one western country that has changed its stance on Islamophobia thanks to IK's efforts. Symbolic burning of Quran goes unabated, among many other issues.

So why would our establishment continue to gamble on a right of center agenda that makes Pakistan's case even weaker in the west when we have a ton of dependencies and zero leverage? Gone is our leverage in Afghanistan, we have no FDI coming in, our Arab friends are turning to India in a major way in trade so what karnamay has IK performed for the establishment to continue to support him?

The above is a realistic assessment of where we are and why we are here. Not discussing why the military influenced the end game for the PTI government etc. etc. The binary reduction for the establishment is simply what is good for Pakistan vis a vis external entities.

 

[epebble]

final kill against its primary adversary for decades when it's about to collapse?

What happens to the prey after the kill? Eaten or allowed to rot? Eating causes indigestion and stomach flu. Allowing it to rot produces a big stink in the neighborhood for a long time. A good hunter should think a little, don't you think?

 

[blain2]

There is still time. the establishment can still sideline this government and bring back Khan otherwise citizens will be on the roads. This is it. this is the time for a change. I feel there is still a week left. Appoint someone who can deal with other countries, especially India. We all see the real face of China now. People still think that China will help. china only wanted a bankrupt Pakistan. Talk to India.

Open the gates. Allow their trucks. let them trade with us and with Afghanistan. Necessary items can come within 2 to 3 days via the Indian border. Apologize to India for Mumbai and other attacks. Write a letter and send it to Pm Modi. initiate contacts now otherwise it will be too late. Jihadis can't save this country. Supporting jihadis was a mistake that caused a total collapse. Let's work hard, like a civilized society. With Indian assistance, Pakistan can regain lost money and the economy will become stable. We have so much to learn from Americans and Indians.

There are many Pakistanis who think of Indian assistance as a sign of humiliation. Great countries learn from mistakes. our youth should hold books and not guns. It's time to save the country. Matric pass, inter pass, can't save this country now. The corrupt elite has ruined us.

If they still feel humiliated then appoint me. I can make things work. Come on! someone should save my country. Are there any eligible candidates who can handle India diplomatically? I feel there are very few.

This is not about assistance. It's about trade with India which means being on equal footing.

However trade with India should not be conflated with the situation on hand. Pakistan will get through this with some reckoning which is needed and trade with India isn't necessarily a must have at this juncture (I am all for trade with all the neighbors) given Pakistan is in a position which can be taken advantage of.

We need to work with IMF, get on a program, implement and execute it fully, increase our own tax net, reduce imports and enhance exports. Tax the bloody hell out of all the bastards parking their money in real estate and get back on track.

Logically there is no reason for India to go for a peace agreement, vocally it should tow the peace narrative but Pakistan is like a vulnerable old man - why should India not go in for the final kill against its primary adversary for decades when it's about to collapse?

Peace will only be vocally - India is in a very powerful position of strength and I don't think its government is feeling generous enough to not utilise this clear advantage

Pakistan is socially divided and weak, India claims Kashmir, going in aggressively in the background could make it quite possible to take Kashmir and maybe even other parts considering the social strife

Let's give this narrative of "all is lost" a break. Pakistan is on its feet and certainly not out. It may be financially strapped but there is no such a thing as a collapse.

Even if the "worst case scenario" happens, i.e. sovereign default, we have examples of other countries like Greece, SL, Argentina that have defaulted and carried on. Pakistan too will move on.

Pakistan does not have to make deals with India at this juncture. India cannot militarily take on Kashmir regardless of the social strife unless you believe our own Pakistanis will pick up the gun and work against our own national integrity in cahoots with India.

 

[datafreak]

What happens to the prey after the kill? Eaten or allowed to rot? Eating causes indigestion and stomach flu. Allowing it to rot produces a big stink in the neighborhood for a long time. A good hunter should think a little, don't you think?

India will stay away from events in Pakistan. This is the prevailing sentiment. If we can help out, we will. But considering the strange emotional and historical sentimtents it evokes in Pak, we have to assume that these are not problems we have the capacity or ability to solve.

 

[epebble]

these are not problems we have the capacity or ability to solve.

I think you can safely strip off the qualifiers and assumptions and let the statement stand unadorned. After watching the video, I agree with the reporter near 100%. Any attempt to rapprochement will be easily seen as an attempt to fish in troubled waters. Besides, it as obvious as anyone's nose that neither Sharif nor IK nor the Military or anyone else has the political capital and popular support to engage in any serious foreign policy course correction. Their immediate concern for the foreseeable future is to keep the wolf from the door and foreign policy change is just a distraction.

 

[Arsalan345]

This is not about assistance. It's about trade with India which means being on equal footing.

However trade with India should not be conflated with the situation on hand. Pakistan will get through this with some reckoning which is needed and trade with India isn't necessarily a must have at this juncture (I am all for trade with all the neighbors) given Pakistan is in a position which can be taken advantage of.

We need to work with IMF, get on a program, implement and execute it fully, increase our own tax net, reduce imports and enhance exports. Tax the bloody hell out of all the bastards parking their money in real estate and get back on track.


Let's give this narrative of "all is lost" a break. Pakistan is on its feet and certainly not out. It may be financially strapped but there is no such a thing as a collapse.

Even if the "worst case scenario" happens, i.e. sovereign default, we have examples of other countries like Greece, SL, Argentina that have defaulted and carried on. Pakistan too will move on.

Pakistan does not have to make deals with India at this juncture. India cannot militarily take on Kashmir regardless of the social strife unless you believe our own Pakistanis will pick up the gun and work against our own national integrity in cahoots with India.

This country needs 33 billion to avoid default. Even if Imf gives us the remaining 1.3 billion then that money will be enough to run this country for another three weeks. What will happen after that? Reality is bitter and I believe Pakistan has already defaulted. We aren't Greece or Argentina. people are angry and I can't rule out civil war.
You understand this country much better than I do. I just want to hand over all jehadis to India so that we can trust each other again. Terrorism will not help us by any means. India can still help and send commodities. Problem is lack of trust and hate on both sides.