PAKISTAN Closer to COLLAPSE as Cash & Fuel Run Out & National Electricity Blackout after Shutdown

[blain2]

This country needs 33 billion to avoid default. Even if Imf gives us the remaining 1.3 billion then that money will be enough to run this country for another three weeks. What will happen after that? Reality is bitter and I believe Pakistan has already defaulted. We aren't Greece or Argentina. people are angry and I can't rule out civil war.
You understand this country much better than I do. I just want to hand over all jehadis to India so that we can trust each other again. Terrorism will not help us by any means. India can still help and send commodities. Problem is lack of trust and hate on both sides.

$33B would be needed if you were to pay everyone off all at once for this year. What happens here is that once the IMF comes in with a program (let's say $1B), it opens the door for Pakistan to get into discussions with other bi-lateral, multi-lateral entities on their loans (since they look at IMF as the bellwether on Pakistan's economic feasibility) on rescheduling the payments to a later date and thus buying fiscal space. If the IMF delivers the $6B, it gives the government more breathing space by paying off the highest interest ones first.

As much as we think the ones we borrow from are tired, they really aren't. For them Pakistan extending the payment is more interest payments. Each and every one of them knows that Pakistan is good for their money since the country is not going under.

Also, Pakistan is not asking for hand-outs or grants/donations, we are asking for loans to payback with interest. I'd rather that we did not need these loans but there isn't shame in asking for loans. What is shameful is the cyclical tendency and not breaking out of this dependence on foreign funding.

 

[lightning F57]

Let me be very direct here. Is IK the only SoB who cares about Pakistan and every single one of the uniformed people a sell out?

Nobody is taking any orders. This is called geo-political re-alignment which IK clearly had no clue about despite claiming he knows west the best. The same west kicked him to the curb instead of understanding him.

The reason that the entire establishment will continue on this path is because they have already gamed these scenarios many times over on what benefits or harms Pakistan. IK's FP was a disaster for Pakistan. His base keeps on talking about his stance on "Islamophobia" and "Kashmir". Can anyone tell me what tangible difference either of these made? Pakistan's relations with the west in his time went into cold-storage, his relations with China became luke-warm and his relations with Gulf became transactional.

So what "sellout" are we harping over? We need to shut our muzzles and just focus on keeping our bi-lateral relations on track with the West, China and the Gulf. What IK perhaps wanted to present was a posture better suited to a country that has few external dependencies. We have a lot. The establishment is a realist in these matters and does not give a damn about populist sentiments formulating our policies because they lead to dead ends in execution.

Case in point, our policy on Kashmir. The relations are absolutely dead-locked and India has not backtracked on its repression in IoK. What is the alternate? You want another Kargil so you can blame the military? IK's diplomacy has yielded nothing for Pakistan's Kashmir stance.

Islamophobia - Name one western country that has changed its stance on Islamophobia thanks to IK's efforts. Symbolic burning of Quran goes unabated, among many other issues.

So why would our establishment continue to gamble on a right of center agenda that makes Pakistan's case even weaker in the west when we have a ton of dependencies and zero leverage? Gone is our leverage in Afghanistan, we have no FDI coming in, our Arab friends are turning to India in a major way in trade so what karnamay has IK performed for the establishment to continue to support him?

The above is a realistic assessment of where and why we are here. Not discussing why the military influenced the end game for the PTI government etc. etc. The binary is what is good for Pakistan vis a vis external entities etc.

The Islamophobia and Kashmir angle to the side, tell me prior to IK what have any of the leaders in Pak (supported by the establishment) ever achieved? this isn't a mess caused over the last three years but many decades. IK has not led the country down to this path, infact allot of the economic indicators under him were strong. What has brought this issue is a perfect storm of political instability created by the establishment, floods, war in Ukraine, Covid and other inflatory pressures.

For many years now Pak has been importing more than it can export, its let corruption turn into a culture of normality among its people, its own civil laws are not kept and there is lesser confidence with investors putting anything into Pak. This is a leadership failure across the board. What you are stating is grossly exaggerated, IK had decent relations with Trump, he probably did make some foreign policy mistakes but nothing that couldn't be fixed and that would lead to Pak in this position.

 

[Arsalan345]

The Islamophobia and Kashmir angle to the side, tell me prior to IK what have any of the leaders in Pak (supported by the establishment) ever achieved? this isn't a mess caused over the last three years but many decades. IK has not led the country down to this path, infact allot of the economic indicators under him were strong. What has brought this issue is a perfect storm of political instability created by the establishment, floods, war in Ukraine, Covid and other inflatory pressures.

For many years now Pak has been importing more than it can export, its let corruption turn into a culture of normality among its people, its own civil laws are not kept and there is lesser confidence with investors putting anything into Pak. This is a leadership failure across the board. What you are stating is grossly exaggerated, IK had decent relations with Trump, he probably did make some foreign policy mistakes but nothing that couldn't be fixed and that would lead to Pak in this position.

I think IMF overall program was 6 billion. they extended it to 7 billion. we have already received 5.7 billion in the last two years so only 1.3 billion is remaining. There is no new 6 billion program from IMF. We are in a deep mess.

 

[blain2]

The Islamophobia and Kashmir angle to the side, tell me prior to IK what have any of the leaders in Pak (supported by the establishment) ever achieved? this isn't a mess caused over the last three years but many decades. IK has not led the country down to this path, infact allot of the economic indicators under him were strong. What has brought this issue is a perfect storm of political instability created by the establishment, floods, war in Ukraine, Covid and other inflatory pressures.

For many years now Pak has been importing more than it can export, its let corruption turn into a culture of normality among its people, its own civil laws are not kept and there is lesser confidence with investors putting anything into Pak. This is a leadership failure across the board. What you are stating is grossly exaggerated, IK had decent relations with Trump, he probably did make some foreign policy mistakes but nothing that couldn't be fixed and that would lead to Pak in this position.

Without exception, all of the past rulers have done the following two:

a) Keeping Kashmir status-quo, as has Imran Khan.

b) Denouncing, condemning Islamophobia - perhaps they did not go to the UN so I can credit IK with that, but on the ground nothing has changed and they all (NS and even Zardari) have spoken out about Islamophobia.

1) Economic indicators under IK were strong - Ok, but Pakistan had not taken a $30B hit under his tenure due to a once in a hundred years flood. We did not even take that kind of a hit during 3 years of Covid. Things that we experienced in Covid years (expensive oil etc.) continued into this year. We can say Ishaq Dari is a dunce but PTI went through 5 Ishaq Dars (not saying they were all dunces but imagine the impact to the policies/running of affairs within finance ministry).

2) Establishment did things because of external reasons including Ukraine among other things. As we say in the vernacular, pagal kuttay nay nahi kata tha establishment ko to push IK out of the office. We had a misaligned foreign policy and it was starting to hurt Pakistan. I am conflicted here because I do believe that it is not the job of the military to set policy and they need to mind their damn business in the cantonments but unfortunately this is not Pakistan's reality at least currently.

3) 100% agree on importing more than exporting. We were writing checks our bodies could not cash. Rest, I am not in disagreement with.

As always, I say my issue is not with IK or even his government. For good or bad, I could have lived with it and would have defended it just the same as I do any other Pakistani government for the sake of Pakistan. I just hope this poisonous bile against our own country and establishment cools down a bit because it is a path to nowhere.

 

[VCheng]

Case in point, our policy on Kashmir. The relations are absolutely dead-locked and India has not backtracked on its repression in IoK. What is the alternate?

Make the LoC a recognized international border.

(But that will allow Pakistan to be able to break the shackles of being a security state, hence unlikely.)

 

[blain2]

Make the LoC a recognized international border.

(But that will allow Pakistan to be able to break the shackles of being a security state, hence unlikely.)

Not for that reason. Musharraf, a through and through establishment man was ready to make that happen. The other side backed off.

There is no reason for the military to have Pakistan as a security state. All militaries get funded and most others get far more funded than ours with their defense budgets.

People should dig into this accusation to realize that this claim of the military wanting to keep Pakistan in the status quo is far from reality.

 

[VCheng]

People should dig into this accusation to realize that this claim of the military wanting to keep Pakistan in the status quo is far from reality.

And I am prepared to argue my contention that it is indeed the reality. The military has assumed supra-Constitutional powers that it will never give up. That is the status quo it will actively maintain for the foreseeable future, no doubt about it.

 

[blain2]

And I am prepared to argue my contention that it is indeed the reality. The military has assumed supra-Constitutional powers that it will never give up. That is the status quo it will actively maintain for the foreseeable future, no doubt about it.

But not for the reasons (i.e. it benefits people personally etc.) commonly thrown around be people here. The idea within the military is that it is the ultimate guarantor of Pakistan's security and this lands it in the extra-constitutional space.

 

[doorstar]

But not for the reasons (i.e. it benefits people personally etc.) commonly thrown around be people here. The idea within the military is that it is the ultimate guarantor of Pakistan's security and this lands it in the extra-constitutional space.

not if we banglafy Pakistan as I suspect Prof. Haider wishes

Make the LoC a recognized international border.

(But that will allow Pakistan to be able to break the shackles of being a security state, hence unlikely.)

Gen. Musharraf accepted it but indian establishment persuaded the then bharati mouthpiece/frontman to decline it

 

[epebble]

Even if Imf gives us the remaining 1.3 billion then that money will be enough to run this country for another three weeks. What will happen after that?

I am surprised that nobody is rising this obvious as one's nose issue. All the arm wrestling with IMF will get Pakistan to April. Then what? Still 9 months in the year. Then there is 2024 . . . .

 

[Redbeanpaste]

But not for the reasons (i.e. it benefits people personally etc.) commonly thrown around be people here..

And yet Bajwa sir is enjoying his retirement and the journalist who revealed his remarkable and recent rise in fortune is in jail.

 

[Hephaestus]

Indians are a different breed.

Indians are worse than the French when it comes to hating Islam.

There will be no peace unless and until India has been balkanized.

Ye chacha alag hi level pe hain!

 

[VCheng]

The idea within the military is that it is the ultimate guarantor of Pakistan's security and this lands it in the extra-constitutional space.

This is not just an noble idea, it is ignoble policy. The military has appointed itself as the ultimate - and the ONLY one allowed - guarantor of national security, above all else, even the Constitution. A security state, by definition: people, meet your overlords, O mighty overlords, meet your serfs.

 

[MirageBlue]

Time for Pakistan, and India, to work hard on a strong and real peace agreement.
As Egypt with Israel for exemple. They were hard opponents and now are living in peace, without love, but in peace and some respect.

Why? What does India stand to gain? The moment things improve for Pakistan, they'll once again start with their anti-India plans.

Best is to just sit by and watch.

 

[MirageBlue]

There is still time. the establishment can still sideline this government and bring back Khan otherwise citizens will be on the roads. This is it. this is the time for a change. I feel there is still a week left. Appoint someone who can deal with other countries, especially India. We all see the real face of China now. People still think that China will help. china only wanted a bankrupt Pakistan. Talk to India.

Open the gates. Allow their trucks. let them trade with us and with Afghanistan. Necessary items can come within 2 to 3 days via the Indian border. Apologize to India for Mumbai and other attacks. Write a letter and send it to Pm Modi. initiate contacts now otherwise it will be too late. Jihadis can't save this country. Supporting jihadis was a mistake that caused a total collapse. Let's work hard, like a civilized society. With Indian assistance, Pakistan can regain lost money and the economy will become stable. We have so much to learn from Americans and Indians.

There are many Pakistanis who think of Indian assistance as a sign of humiliation. Great countries learn from mistakes. our youth should hold books and not guns. It's time to save the country. Matric pass, inter pass, can't save this country now. The corrupt elite has ruined us.

If they still feel humiliated then appoint me. I can make things work. Come on! someone should save my country. Are there any eligible candidates who can handle India diplomatically? I feel there are very few.

The horse has long bolted. No use closing the door now.

Those who fed Pakistanis the regular diet of India hatred and Kashmir obsession have a big hand in how India Pakistan relations are since many decades. Letting the Army rule a nation and dictate it's priorities, instead of having an Army to defend the nation has eventually led to this.