Pakistan and Second-strike

[ejaz007]

I don't think at the moment PN should acquire a nuclear submarine. We should try to get german subs, if possible. After completion of present modernization plan a review should be carried out to see if we need nuclear submarines.

 

[Dante]

Hi,

KISS----keep it simple stupid----there is no reason for us to follow whatever indian millitary is procuring----our resources are limited---.

Let india do what it wants to---we only need to cross the minimum threshold deterence---that is all---having nuclear subs and ships delivering nuclear weapons is going too far overboard---.

India and pakistan live in too closed and confined space----neither there is any time for warning nor there is any time to correct the error in judgement.

Pak millitary has too much on its plate at this moment---stay focussed---beware of the priorities---let the research in weapons systems do its job and see what direction they take and what break throughs they make in miniaturizing the req'd system.

In a five years time period---we will be in a different position to evaluate our standings.

hi, I know little about nuclear warfare, so correct me if im wrong,

from what i understand, 1st strike usually targetting air and strategic missilles bases, simply because these bases are detecable, so submarine-launch and nuclear-capable ballistic/cruise missille is important to make sure retaliation attack capability.

 

[592257001]

Actually, this idea is pretty good, although the conventional sub would need some modifications such as a good AIP system, such enables the sub to to longer underwater undetected, thus increasing its survivalbility.

 

[faithfulguy]

Actually, this idea is pretty good, although the conventional sub would need some modifications such as a good AIP system, such enables the sub to to longer underwater undetected, thus increasing its survivalbility.

A guided missle modern diesel electric sub with AIP should be sufficient. Pakistan has no enemies that has nuclear sub with SLBM point at it.

 

[MastanKhan]

hi, I know little about nuclear warfare, so correct me if im wrong,

from what i understand, 1st strike usually targetting air and strategic missilles bases, simply because these bases are detecable, so submarine-launch and nuclear-capable ballistic/cruise missille is important to make sure retaliation attack capability.

Hi,

Nuclear warfare is brutal---anyway---for pakistan---there is no first or second choice---it has limited resources---smaller number of cities---smaller area---the first is the only choice they will have of strike--after that it will be the doomsday.

The flight times are too short---too many errors in judgements can be made---lack of time prevents from correcting any errors---truthfull, it is not a good situation to be in.

A nuclear war in such close proximity is a losing proposition for both.

 

[Blue Curacao]

^^Rightly said. Moreover, I would like to add that unlike Pakistan, India has a "No First Use" doctrine. Hence, we got to have a second strike capability as a deterrence against a nuclear attack.
In case of a war, Pakistan will be more likely to go nuclear as it does not have a no first use doctrine. In any case, a first nuclear strike will be very lethal for India. If India does a successful second retaliatory strike, there would be enough destruction on both sides of the border that it might not remain feasible to prolong the war. Hence, a second strike from Pakistan makes no sense as it would be like striking an already burnt house again.
The war would be over in the first nuclear exchange itself. I pray that such time never comes

 

[TaimiKhan]

A guided missle modern diesel electric sub with AIP should be sufficient. Pakistan has no enemies that has nuclear sub with SLBM point at it.

Yeah currently we don't have a nuclear sub with SLBM by our enemy, but in a few years they will, so better we start preparing right now.

 

[abbasniazi]

In my opinion pakistan should go with german tech for conventional subs and should negotiate for a strategic technological long term partnership with france over Nuclear technology and Nuclear sub TOT.

French will sell you anything if you have euros.

 

[DavyJones]

taimikhan - I don't think the nuclear sub will be used to against Pakistan - it's for China. But yes - every nuke power needs a second strike capability. Nuclear subs are the best option for that. Not one but 3 or 4 subs so that you have the capability in place 24X7 365 days a year.
One sub completes duty in 90 days or so - you need 3 or 4 to rotate.
Diesel subs for 2nd strike - with AIP - maybe this will be possible.

 

[TaimiKhan]

taimikhan - I don't think the nuclear sub will be used to against Pakistan - it's for China. But yes - every nuke power needs a second strike capability. Nuclear subs are the best option for that. Not one but 3 or 4 subs so that you have the capability in place 24X7 365 days a year.
One sub completes duty in 90 days or so - you need 3 or 4 to rotate.
Diesel subs for 2nd strike - with AIP - maybe this will be possible.

We don't need nuke subs, all we need are good diesel AIP loaded submarines capable enough to give a match to nuclear subs, with the capability to launch cruise missiles. Plus some good surface based ASW capability.

 

[592257001]

This is not yet the right time for pakistan to acquire a nuclear submarine, in my opionion. Simply because India hasn't got its own nuclear sub ready (its first nuke sub is having probs with its reactor). It is costly not just to buy a nuclear submarine, but also maintaning it. The money would be more wisely spent on if pakistan lease a chinese Type 094 or Type 092 nuclear ballistic submarine to train submarine crews AFTER India has built up a credible submarine nuclear deterrence force.

 

[SABRE]

hi, I know little about nuclear warfare, so correct me if im wrong,

from what i understand, 1st strike usually targetting air and strategic missilles bases, simply because these bases are detecable, so submarine-launch and nuclear-capable ballistic/cruise missille is important to make sure retaliation attack capability.

1st strike is the 1st use of nuclear weapons against the adversary.

2nd strike is retaliation through nuclear strike. It is your ability to consume the first strike and still manage to retaliate on the enemy.

Assured 2nd Strike Capability is achieved through "something" that can signal to your enemy that you are capable of carrying out the 2nd strike. In the nuclear world submarines capable of launching nuclear strike are ultimate guaranteer of Assured 2nd Strike, hence the nuclear submarines are Assured 2nd Strike Capability.

Ground based targets are easy targets for ballistic missiles even when they are launched from land or ear. Nuclear Submarines assure you and your enemy that even if he destroys your state you'll still be able to do the same to him.


Targetting air, ground, sea or missile forces is referred to as "Counter Force" operations.

Targetting cities and civilians is referred to as "Counter Value" operations.

Both 'Counter Force' and 'Counter Value' can be done through nuclear weapons and conventional weapons. Depending on the level of destruction you want to inflict.

Strategic Bombing is WWII concept in which enemy's industrial and state infrastructure is bombed along with civilians through massive aerial bombing (nothing to do with nuclear but important to mention since nuclear weapons have replaced the strategy).

 

[courageneverdies]

Without Second strike assurance the balance will be severely disturbed.
It is actually crucial for peace that Pakistan has second strike capability, to discourage any misadventure.

Refitting our Agostas with a Nuclear Reactor is not only a never before attempted feat of engineering but i am afraid that such things are technically not workable unless there is 80-90% similarity in parts and design...i do not know how similar both these classes are but still it shall be better to buy 2 dedicated Nuclear attack Submarines from France or China.
We need to have a blue water presence and for now the only assets we should consider are Nuclear Submarines.

Very well said... No need to addition in this one, best described. Is German technology in this field of any use, as I heard PM had been on a stealth mission of buying some stuff for PN?

KIT Out

 

[Quwa]

At the present, Pakistan's main priority is to develop and induct a submarine and surface-launch capable LACM similar to the SCALP-Naval. This should effectively give Pakistan second-strike capabilities.

On PakDef, M Ahmed (link) said that Pakistan is aware of the possibility of eventually pursuing a nuclear submarine. To that end, it does have the foundational expertise and technology to develop a miniature reactor for a submarine. However, PAEC still requires a considerable level of funding, manpower, expertise, time, etc to successfully accomplish this...especially in matching modern standards in noise, safety, etc.

Instead of directly leasing or purchasing a nuclear submarine, Pakistan will have to rely on an indigenous solution. China cannot be direct in assisting Pakistan in this regard, but it can help with funding or providing relevant safety-related technology...speed up the process in some areas, etc. Honestly, I don't think we'll hear talk about a Pakistani SSN until after 2020.

 

[bucephalian]

Guys as its the first time for me in any blog..........i think first we should consider whatever role we are proposing for 90Bs to play on Pakistan's coastal waters.........given the total area of responsibility of PC length an efficient platform like 90B is more than enough.....and in my opinion the only improvement it needs is in the AIP system that is not as efficient in my openion