Best to get 3-4 dozen air frames now using CSF funds (if not with CSF funds then don't do it and just go for the J-10CE with AESA), and if they pan out in terms of a future upgrade great, but if they don't then no loss of Pakistani funds.
Especially to upgrade the F-22P SAM capacity from 8 FM-90 of 15 km range to 32 ESSM with a range out to 50 km; Couple that with an upgrade of the radar to a Smart S Mk. 2. The real issue remains political with western upgrades on Chinese vessels, when the Chinese are more than capable of manufacturing similar missiles, and giving over the AAW capability for the ship to Americans could be risky if relations sour again.
Hence the PAF should commit to getting
One Squadron of the J-10CE TODAY. It will show the US (and PAF's own fence sitting officers) the
PAF is deadly serious. Once the PAF gets the ball rolling on inducting a new type it will make it a lot easier for the PAF to shift away from the F-16 and towards the J-10CE if the US doesn't supply needs spares or upgrades or weapons in the future. With out proper support and an upgrade, in a few years the F-16 Block 52 will be third string to the J-10CE and the JF-17 Block III.
@$60 million; a squadron of 18 Fighters would be give or take $1 Billion. (there will be hundreds of millions more spend to induct a new type) Once the PAF is busy training on the J-10CE, the US will visibly see the PAF slipping out of their hands, the best pilots and mostly likely to be promoted to highest ranks will go to the J-10 Squadron.
Do this across the other two branches, with Attack helicopters for the Army and C4ISR equipment or ships for the Navy, and the cadres of future high ranking officers will no longer be going to the the US.
This is the consequence of the US not supporting the Pakistani Military with modern equipment. BTW the saga of the F-16 Radars is not new, it was the same in the 80s, with the US initially refusing to sell the look down shoot down radars, until they realized PAF would only accept the jets with the radars or not at all. It was very well demonstrated in the movie; Charlie Wilson's war.
0:32-0:37
3:50-4:22
BTW the SABR Radar; the one in the Block 70/72 is itself not as good as the AN/APG-80 on the Block 60, The AN/APG-80 is the same radar offered to the Indians for the F-16IN. So if the US is serious about a strategic relation with Pakistan, it needs to be get real and at the very least AESA radar it has already approved to so many nations. Or sell Used F-16 C/Ds and let Pakistan buy Turkish F-16 AESA radars, and protect the SABR's "secret sauce".
To paraphrase the clip above; IF this was a real war, the US would take into account Pakistan's need and find a middle ground approach.
New F-16s are not it unless they are fully equipped (including AESA) birds, otherwise CSF funds should just go to buying 50-60 if not more F-16 C/D with the least hours on their air frames and Thousands of Aim-120C7 and Aim-9X. This way we fill some of the numbers gap we have at the least cost; and speed up the retirement of the oldest F-7s and Mirages.
We can spend our own money on AESA birds like the J-10CE.