Opinion: The time for equivocating about a nuclear-armed, Taliban-friendly Pakistan is over

[Meengla]

However, I do not agree this China backing as a reason for ineffective sanctions. You will notice today that Pakistan's primary export partners are the NATO countries and not China. In fact, Pakistan has a substantial trade surplus with western nations that need cheap goods from low income countries. China on the other hand does not have this need. In fact, very few countries have the capability to manufacture goods that are cheaper than what the Chinese could manufacture. Case in point, check the China - Pakistan trade balance.

Bull's eye as far a China's economic help. The trade numbers should be very sobering for Pakistanis. Even without going through the UNSC, the US and its allies can economically cripple Pakistan. It's a sad reality which, luckily, has never escaped the Pakistani planners. And, NO, Pakistan has NEVER been hit with sanctions like they were imposed on Iran etc.

 

[LeGenD]

John Bolton is the American equivalent of the Pakistani Lal Masjid Maulana Abdul Aziz.

His statements are in stark contrast to how USA and Pakistan have co-addressed Afghanistan since Trump administration.

Nobody takes him seriously.

No need to worry about.

Agreed.

Bolton does not get to decide and shape the course of US-Pakistan relations.

We have faced sanctions and in fact are still facing them in the form of FATF.

Sanctions can be applied on a country in different ways (economic trends) and IMPACT will vary according to which type of economic trends are disrupted.

Pressler Amendment was a significant drop in American financial aid to Pakistan (one of the economic streams); core Pakistani economic activities were not disrupted however (other economic streams). KSA provided financial assistance to Pakistan in these times (i.e. big relief). Even then, Pakistan experienced a period of political turmoil and Pakistani military readiness status took a hit which was apparent in the Kargil War (1999).

FATF is aimed to curb money laundering and additional controversial flow(s) of funds. This is not a threat to core Pakistani economic activities either.

FATF will be 'punishing' IF Pakistan make to the Black List (God forbid).

We have to understand, that a giant is still reeling from the punches it had faced in the past 20 years and it is hurting as he prepares to get out the ring, defeated and dejected. He is bruised and angry. But its not the first time the US is in this state.

The US couldnt do shit in 1990 (after Soviet breakdown) and 1998 (After N-tests), then we are in a much better position now. World is no longer unipolar and I seriously doubt the US establishment want to lose its focus from its strategic rivalry in the South China Sea. It is infact this reason it decided to get out of Afghanistan to focus on its main front and this article proposes a complete antithesis to that. Getting sanctions on a soon to be the largest Islamic country in the world wouldnt seem good for the US if it plans to finger point China as the violater of Uigher rights.

In the worst case even if we face sanctions, our dependence on the US militarily is probably the lowest in our history. China is our ally. And we have enough food and resources to face any eventuality.

John Bolton writing in Washington Post means no more than pure shit considering the many other factors involved some of which I have listed above.

US had played all its cards, infact overplayed them, and we are still standing there alhamdullilah, to fare him the LAST KISS

Hold on...

1. It wasn't USA that was invaded and occupied for 20 years but Afghanistan.

2. It wasn't USA that was subjected to drone strikes (and more) for several years but Pakistan.

3. It wasn't NATO that was dismantled but Al-Qaeda Network.

4. Afghan Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan (very impressive) but at the cost of many lives (over 50,000 KIA), and after many years in waiting and negotiations with USA. Pakistan brought both USA and Afghan Taliban to the 'negotiation table' to bring an end to the war in the region.

5. This war have not even dented American warfighting capability. Just look at reports highlighting American military advances lately.

So which is the bruised and/or battered party in the exchange?

WE need to understand that Pakistan have failed to develop a sustainable economy thus far. The country have economically subsisted on goodwill of friendly countries, and on IMF bailout packages from time-to-time.

USA still have Cards to play in the region.

IF Americans are to apply 'crippling sanctions' on Pakistan, Pakistani economy will be TOAST in short order.

Pakistani armed forces have benefitted from dealings with China on many counts (no doubt) but there is still considerable reliance on Western-origin equipment and technologies to deliver heavy blows to a potential adversary. This is apparent in Operation Swift Retort as well.

Afghan Taliban also need 'international assistance' to manage and develop Afghanistan in the long-term. Neighbors will not be sufficient.

IF Pakistan is to step out from FATF, this would be when USA will say YES.

People should be HUMBLE in their views. Do not mistake GOODWILL of 'others' for weakness.

 

[VCheng]

WE need to understand that Pakistan have failed to develop a sustainable economy thus far. The country have economically subsisted on goodwill of friendly countries, and on IMF bailout packages from time-to-time.

USA still have Cards to play in the region.

IF Americans are to apply 'crippling sanctions' on Pakistan, Pakistani economy will be TOAST in short order.

Except that China's support will likely be crucial to tide Pakistan over any difficult period.

 

[Maula Jatt]

That may have been the case, but China is an economic powerhouse now, without a doubt. One must keep that in mind.

China isn't an export destination like EU and US, that's why trade deals with them are really good for countries, that's what he is pointing towards

 

[VCheng]

China isn't an export destination like EU and US, that's why trade deals with them are really good for countries, that's what he is pointing towards

Yes, but it is China's financial might coming to help out Pakistan that is the key point. Pakistan's trade is not really important in this regards.

Bull's eye as far a China's economic help. The trade numbers should be very sobering for Pakistanis. Even without going through the UNSC, the US and its allies can economically cripple Pakistan. It's a sad reality which, luckily, has never escaped the Pakistani planners. And, NO, Pakistan has NEVER been hit with sanctions like they were imposed on Iran etc.

Please see the above.

 

[LeGenD]

Except that China's support will likely be crucial to tide Pakistan over any difficult period.

Like DPRK?

China is doing much for Pakistan already but it isn't all-encompassing entity. China have its limits in international forums and dealings as well.

Pakistan can flourish while having productive relations with multiple progressive countries.

To give you some perspective, China helped Pakistan in FATF-related matters but American nod is necessary to close this chapter for good.

One country is not sufficient to rely upon for all manner of needs in coming years. Just take a good look at Pakistani export destinations.

China itself became a superpower by having trade relations with entire world.

 

[SMC]

People are taking this too seriously. John Bolton is a known extreme war monger in the US. He was fired by trump for this reason because he wanted Iran invaded. Just leave this guy to be. He isn't not representing state policy of the US.

 

[VCheng]

Like DPRK?

No single country is sufficient to rely upon in coming years.

China itself became a superpower by having trade relations with entire world.

The analogy with DPRK may not be too far off, actually, not that there is anything wrong with that at all.

 

[Meengla]

Yes, but it is China's financial might coming to help out Pakistan that is the key point. Pakistan's trade is not really important in this regards.

Okay. We are all talking in hypothetical terms here. Scenarios unlikely to happen--such as 'crippling' US-backed sanctions against Pakistan, which have never happened and @LeGenD pointed toward those 'sanctions' (previously, they were more like slap on the wrist, relatively speaking).

So hypothetically speaking... the moment US and its allies start putting economic choke-hold on Pakistan like blacklisting Pakistani banking/commercial entities, stopping remittance from any financial agencies whether from American allies or even the Middle East, threatening sanctions on countries who'd do business with Pakistan in anyway, egging on India (economically and militarily) to keep Pakistani Army 'engaged' in low-level conflicts... Think those all together. This forum is full of people smarter than me on those topics and they can come up with those hypothetical scenarios better.

But to me there is no uncertainty about the out comes. Much better naturally endowed countries have greatly lost their potentials due to enhanced sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia). Unless China is willing to pump in tens of billions $$ in direct aid /free money (as America did to Afghanistan for 20 years), it is a catastrophic economic situation for Pakistan: Not only is Pakistan's economic base / standard of living much higher than the Afghans' but also crippling of only the textile sector would result in huge loss of incomes for many families. China would have to a LOT more proportionally then America ever did in Afghanistan.

Add in some internal socio-economic factors: Pakistanis are a little bit of spoiled people--years of imports and living on fancy cars (unlike Indians were) and imports without developing enough local industry, and having the internal political divisions which provide openings to foreign opportunism. All it takes is to co-opt a Yelstin or a Challabi or a Karzai with meager followings to create a alternate viable 'govt'.

Pakistan doesn't have the leadership and the population for some 'Juche' like defiance.

 

[VCheng]

But to me there is no uncertainty about the out comes. Much better naturally endowed countries have greatly lost their potentials due to enhanced sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia). Unless China is willing to pump in tens of billions $$ in direct aid /free money (as America did to Afghanistan for 20 years), it is a catastrophic economic situation for Pakistan: Not only is Pakistan's economic base / standard of living much higher than the Afghans' but also crippling of only the textile sector would result in huge loss of incomes for many families. China would have to a LOT more proportionally then America ever did in Afghanistan.

Add in some internal socio-economic factors: Pakistanis are a little bit of spoiled people--years of imports and living on fancy cars (unlike Indians were) and imports without developing enough local industry, and having the internal political divisions which provide openings to foreign opportunism. All it takes is to co-opt a Yelstin or a Challabi or a Karzai with meager followings to create a alternate viable 'govt'.

Please keep in mind it may not take much Chinese money to keep Pakistan going as another version of DPRK as a client state. Pakistanis will learn frugality in short order, for sure.

 

[mudas777]

But if they apply iran/noko style sanctions we'd be doomed

Don't be so pessimistic things have changed for Pakistan and time have moved on. We are not a Pakistan of 1999 era and Pakistan have got options too.

 

[Meengla]

Please keep in mind it may not take much Chinese money to keep Pakistan going as another version of DPRK as a client state. Pakistanis will learn frugality in short order, for sure.

Yes. I do think that if push comes to shove, Pakistanis will 'learn frugality'. And to perhaps posit a counter to my own argument above: Russia, Iran and Venezuela had much better standard of living than Pakistanis ever had and so the 'pain' to those countries has been higher from the sanctions. Pakistanis maybe spoiled when compared with Afghans--and even with Indians-- but the economic base is still low in Pakistan. Also, Pakistan does have enough domestic economic activity, a long growing season, and a fairly strong agrarian base to survive, even if pushed back decades on the global economic rung; that pushing back is I called 'catastrophy'. Already regional players like Bangladesh went ahead when Pakistan was in a turmoil and they and others would grab with both hands any missed export options from Pakistan.

 

[HammerHead081]

Thank god for nukes, USA would have invaded us a long time ago if we didn't have them. Their words are empty, there are no counter measures to nukes existing at the moment. They can slow our progress down through sanctions but they will be making an enemy of a country that is only among the few friendly to them in central asia.

 

[Genghis khan1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429938995983753216

He is the extremest retard, that is why he got kicked out even by Trump.
He is equivalent to what he himself describes as " Pakistani extremists" of the US.

 

[Goritoes]

I think he lost his mind when Trump Fired him... Mujhe tu F-35 Larako Vimaan Sargoda mai land hote nazar a rahe hai, Pilot wapsi pe chingchi le len gay