Opinion - Saudis rattled by Pakistan's central role in creating Iran-China $400 billion deal

[Bouncer]

It's easy to think this Iran deal is just another one of China's many BRI deals and sweep it under the wrong but its not. China doesn't have direct physical links to every country they sign agreements with. How many countries can you count that have signed deals with China more than $100 billion? There is no way China would have invested $400 billion without some iron clad agreement of a direct physical link that more or less has to go through Pakistan. Why? Because building the kind of infrastructure that costs $200 billion cannot be done without a physical link to transport construction and supplies. This is not some small port in Africa that costs $50 million and can be built with a couple of ships in a few weeks and boom its done. For a $400 billion infrastructure deal, you need all kinds of links, road, rail, etc. some of which don't even exist right now because they have to be created in Pakistan first so they can be extended to Iran later over a period of many years.

Makes sense that Chinese would look to get something much more out of this deal against some solid guarantees. And we have to keep in mind its not just the dollars they are investing. They are also pissing off the West. And that alone is enough to warrant a huge payback.

 

[Ace of Spades]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292868311911260163

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291758507088322566

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291427871253319680

https://twitter.com/x/status/1293449759596908544

https://twitter.com/x/status/1293064645603782656

https://twitter.com/x/status/1293814613503627264

@Mangus Ortus Novem all we have to do is to connect the dots...

 

[fitpOsitive]

This deal, the biggest loser is China

Ofcourse, as always.

 

[Vapour]

Not saying that I hold the same view, but public support and statements in favour of Pakistan's stance on IOK from certain actors in Iran's power echelon does lend some credence to this theory.

 

[Aspen]

And then there's also the Pakistani angle. Any Pakistani diplomat worth his salt would have anticipated the Saudi, and even worse, American backlash for such a move. So I am sure they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. Unless they grew some balls and decided to get rid of Saudi/GCC/US influence which I don't think so.

There is a famous saying in Washington DC that the only thing more dangerous than being enemy of US is being friend of US.

I think Pakistan is at a crossroads where they have to decide the future:

Does Pakistan want to fear US forever and lose out on benefits of Iran, China, Pakistan regional cooperation?

I think answer is no.

 

[TNT]

Just immature speculations. China and iran arw fully capable to strike a deal between them, why do they need Pakistan? Pakistan at most would allow china to connect to iran, which Pakistan have to, given huge investment of china in CPEC.
In reality Pakistan have attracted saudi to the CPEC and connectivity would extend to ME from china. The current spat or bitterness is all due to Kashmir. UAE and saudi have been blocking efforts at OIC and elsewhere for high level kashmiri meetings, this irked Pakistan and Pakistan reacted in anger. Saudi and UAE may have also asked Pakistan not to help china with border issue with india but Pakistan denied that and caused friction.
Its still a non issue and pak saudi relations remain very strong.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I posted this in another thread but I am also making a separate thread so more people can see it:

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

Excellent analysis and a very thought provoking post. Completely agree with the above.

 

[Fawadqasim1]

Foreign policy is a balancing act in the game of interests. We should learn to play this game well playing zero sum is almost always fatal.

 

[Aspen]

Just immature speculations. China and iran arw fully capable to strike a deal between them, why do they need Pakistan? Pakistan at most would allow china to connect to iran, which Pakistan have to, given huge investment of china in CPEC.
In reality Pakistan have attracted saudi to the CPEC and connectivity would extend to ME from china. The current spat or bitterness is all due to Kashmir. UAE and saudi have been blocking efforts at OIC and elsewhere for high level kashmiri meetings, this irked Pakistan and Pakistan reacted in anger. Saudi and UAE may have also asked Pakistan not to help china with border issue with india but Pakistan denied that and caused friction.
Its still a non issue and pak saudi relations remain very strong.

It's not really connection to CPEC, but rather integration of Iran into CPEC itself. For a variety of reasons which would take too long to explain, two way transit and exchange between Iran and China through Pakistan to either side affects Pakistan more than Iran or China. Basically, Pakistan has to be in the loop about this Iran-China deal from the very beginning and probably helped create it due to the fact that any infrastructure deal in Iran logistically is connected to a number of points in Pakistan facilitated by CPEC. Hence, connection of Iran is not the right word, integration is a better word to describe it since there is a big difference where Iran is being merged into an existing framework.

If all of this is confusing, let me put it in simpler terms. An Iran-China deal of this scale is not possible without Pakistan. India's ambitions to build millions of dollars worth of infrastructure in Afghanistan have ended in utter failure because they were not able to achieve a direct road link to Afghanistan to build infrastructure of any kind on a large scale. You need physical road or rail links to build infrastructure, there is no alternative. Supplies must be trucked in or brought by train, flying in or shipping for very large infrastructure projects is prohibitively expensive. Some things just don't fit on a plane. No matter how much India wanted to build in Afghanistan, they couldn't do any of it because Pakistan blocked them. An Iran-China deal is as big as it is because Pakistan was there from the beginning and helped to smooth out the wrinkles and logistics of seamlessly integrating Iran into CPEC, facilitating new infrastructure projects into the framework of completed projects in a single continuous and consolidated multinational program instead of creating two separate expensive and cost inefficient duplicate agreements that mirror each other in close proximity.

 

[CrazyZ]

I stated the following in another post but many thoughts have relevance here. Current global situation has caught KSA completely by surprise. They're oil price war was poorly timed. This plus the shut down in hajj and umrah has no doubt hurt their economy. The petro dollar is being debased in record amounts.

KSA needs to think bigger then the GCC and think past the petro-dollar. The dollar order is on its way out, IMO. This process could take decades. KSA needs to cozy up to China and a future Eurasian bloc. Better for KSA to start hedging its bets on the petro dollar. Pakistan should offer any access to CPEC and Eurasia KSA requires. Iran really had no choice, but KSA should plan this out and hedge its relations with the USA and China.

 

[Nasr]

Plausible, considering the one country that would actually "connect" China with Iran, would be Pakistan. As Pakistan does have the necessary infrastructure and the land routes in place to connect the two. I have said time and time again, saudis are useless and not the way forward for Pakistan. The saudi regime is the creation of the zionist-british empire, when they meddled in the Islamic World, to bring down the Islamic Caliphate during World War One. Worse still, today the saudi regime is led by an absolute idiot, MBS. His actions has ripped through the very fabric of the regime itself. This guy has made more enemies within his ranks, than any other saudi monarch before him. To top it all off, he ain't even king yet.

Pakistan stands to strategically benefit from diversification of it's alliances. This policy has benefited Pakistan, historically. Just look at what Pakistan achieved by diversifying the hardware OEMs for Pakistan Air Force. Or for that matter, it's Navy. By diversifying it's military hardware, not one country has a sense of leverage on Pakistan. Chosing to forging closer ties with Turkey, has paid dividends for Pakistan. Similarly now, with the Sino-Iranian Deal, Pakistan stands to benefit from closer relations with Iran. Both Iran and Turkey support Pakistan on Kashmir. That makes two regional powerhouses who are backing Pakistan on Kashmir, apart from China.

I have said this many times over, Pakistan must establish strong and close ties with Russia. Not lip service, but a rock solid alliance. Russia today is NOT the Soviet Union of the past. Pakistan has the ability, the people, the will and the resources to establish a powerful alliance with Russia. An alliance which mutually benefits both countries. The same way Pakistan, Iran and China stand to benefit from the Iranian Deal. The closer Asian Continental countries come together toward economic, trade and military alliance. The more benefit it would bring to Asian countries and their people.

Imagine, an alliance between Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. All having direct borders, Russia with China, China with Pakistan, Pakistan with Iran. Now that would be a powerful message Asian Continental Countries would send to NATO. Working together to push zionist-western nato out of Afghanistan. With those idiots gone, then we can welcome Afghanistan into the fold. For once there would be peace in Afghanistan, and for once we can have open border movements between all five countries. Russia and China will have access to the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and the Oceans in the South.

If the gentleman's analysis has any validity to it, then it would serve a notice to all countries who take their relations with Pakistan lightly. Not to mess around Pakistan on issues which are close to it's heart. Support Pakistan's stance on Kashmir, or else Pakistan will drop you like a bad habit.

 

[khail007]

Pakistan never rattled by mutual relations of KSA with India.
Is there any need for KSA to be rattled on relation between Iran and Pakistan?
IMO KSA need not and if KSA done so, they are totally on wrong footings.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Pakistan Karachi Ka Nala to fix ker nahi sakta , let us be practical , every Moon Soon rain fishing is happening on streets.

My statement may be blunt but it is practical

Let us be real folks , we are a Nation still finding and fixing our broken systems

a) Political
b) Judicial
c) Municipal
d) Criminals are routinely being freed by Corrupt courts

Every next day , Nawaz Sheriff Family is disrupting by performing criminal acts against internal systems

Pakistan, has a place in dialog but ultimately China-Iran , collaboration is their own strategic initiative

If Iran did not had sanctions they would be Similar strength in world as Germany their Education/ Workforce and mindset is similar to Germans

People do realize they do have their own National Space Program which has launched a Rocket in Space

yes, a nation that is bhooka naga that makes its own planes, tanks , nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles.....and also has gadha gari’s parked right next to it.

damn I am speaking of Russia or Ukraine or post war Germany or post war japan ......

oh nations take time to develope and maybe Allah gave us time to simmer so when trade comes through our shores we can seize the opportunity and become Canada to the new super power China and over time become a power ourselves for Islam.

There is so much self doubt in my country men.

kv

 

[Xone]

Pakistan did offer KSA to invest in CPEC but Saudia did not fulfill its commitment, better for Pakistan to get out of KSA subservience. Pakistan and KSA will remain friends after all these messy issues. KSA would be a fool if it let Pakistan totally go with the Iranian regime. Yeah, Pakistan can avail of opportunities like these by playing its cards deftly. Pakistan can not afford to break its relations with KSA and American Block. Pakistan and Saudi relationship is vital for both and both understand it well.

 

[TNT]

It's not really connection to CPEC, but rather integration of Iran into CPEC itself. For a variety of reasons which would take too long to explain, two way transit and exchange between Iran and China through Pakistan to either side affects Pakistan more than Iran or China. Basically, Pakistan has to be in the loop about this Iran-China deal from the very beginning and probably helped create it due to the fact that any infrastructure deal in Iran logistically is connected to a number of points in Pakistan facilitated by CPEC. Hence, connection of Iran is not the right word, integration is a better word to describe it since there is a big difference where Iran is being merged into an existing framework.

If all of this is confusing, let me put it in simpler terms. An Iran-China deal of this scale is not possible without Pakistan. India's ambitions to build millions of dollars worth of infrastructure in Afghanistan have ended in utter failure because they were not able to achieve a direct road link to Afghanistan to build infrastructure of any kind on a large scale. You need physical road or rail links to build infrastructure, there is no alternative. Supplies must be trucked in or brought by train, flying in or shipping for very large infrastructure projects is prohibitively expensive. Some things just don't fit on a plane. No matter how much India wanted to build in Afghanistan, they couldn't do any of it because Pakistan blocked them. An Iran-China deal is as big as it is because Pakistan was there from the beginning and helped to smooth out the wrinkles and logistics of seamlessly integrating Iran into CPEC, facilitating new infrastructure projects into the framework of completed projects in a single continuous and consolidated multinational program instead of creating two separate expensive and cost inefficient duplicate agreements that mirror each other in close proximity.

U didnt get my point. Ofcourse iranian oil will be taken through cpec route and chinese stuff brought through same route. Pakistan would also have been in the loop but u suggest Pakistan playing a "central role" and using typical Pakistani media like language to assert as if its Pakistan behind all that is a mere speculation. Its that typical mullah propaganda getting to work to clash Pakistan with GCC. Pakistan is not an immature kid to directly jump in with iran who has been biggest indian asset against us. Yes we will control the routes and allow iranian oil to pass with condition that iran stop playing dirty games in Pakistan. Pakistan will never let it jeopardize its decades old relationship with GCC. Infact Pakistan aim is to connect GCC to central asia and china mainly.