Opinion - Saudis rattled by Pakistan's central role in creating Iran-China $400 billion deal

[Ceylal]

I posted this in another thread but I am also making a separate thread so more people can see it:

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

It’s the other way around when the Saudi decided to cut Pakistan...and Imran Khan left empty handed...

 

[mikkix]

Iranians will buy russian chinese weapons, while arabs will buy US european weapons. Both group will get latest weapons due to their fake animosity to each other. A win win situation for the muslim world. Congratzs to both and Pakistan.

 

[FuturePAF]

I completely agree, but the point is that Pakistan allows Iran-China deal to be much bigger than it otherwise would be. Pakistan allows physical infrastructure links in CPEC that makes Iran-China deal much more cost efficient, practical, and useful. Iran-China agreement is economically and also literally an extension of CPEC that will have a substantial and direct positive impact on Pakistan's economy.

It is a win-win-win. Iran benefits, Pakistan benefits, China benefits. Losers are Israel, Saudi, India, US.

Don’t forget Afghanistan. If Pakistan, China, Iran, and Russia (aligned with the Central Asian Republics) can come to a consensus on Afghanistan, then regional economic development (mining, value added industries with the use of the regions labor force) can take place without fighting between the different power blocks.

If the money is funneled back into modernizing agriculture and value added industries, the people of the region will be more deeply integrated into each other’s economies and not dependent on going further abroad for work and eventually trade to some extent.

China and Russia Have industries in need of customers while the other countries have a labor force in need of work and an increase in their quality of life.

Turkey also has a large part to play in this. As a trans-shipment route for goods and some raw materials from Iran and Pakistan to Europe, it can recover the costs it has invested into its rail network and get access to mining in Central Asia; fellow Turkic peoples.

Pakistan also needs a reliable way to payback its CPEC loans ASAP. Regional stability on a common frame work is the answer.

 

[Max]

Seeing is believing. When I will see the list of projects worth 400 Billion, I will be in better position to share my thoughts.

 

[redtom]

Oil is only part of it. Geopolitics is the more important consideration. China needs to establish a strategic pivot in the Middle East and must choose at least one major country in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United States are getting too close. Iraq is not a state at all. The best option is Iran.

The Middle East was supposed to be Russia's arena. But Russia's economy is so poor that it is increasingly struggling to stand up to the U.S. in the Middle East, which is why it needs China's cooperation.

China's entry into the Middle East opens up a new battlefield against the US. The US has become the new oil exporter, which makes the US and Middle Eastern countries' strategic rivals. So there is a need for strategic cooperation between China and the Middle East. It is only a matter of time before the US abandons Saudi Arabia. Sooner or later the US will need to bomb Saudi Arabia to raise oil prices.

 

[R Wing]

I posted this in another thread but I am also making a separate thread so more people can see it:

The issue with Saudis is actually not Kashmir. I was watching a video from GVS News on YouTube that did an excellent analysis of the situation.

What basically happened is this: SMQ made some criticism in a statement about Saudis and OIC. At almost the same time Saudis suspended an oil deal and loan which was unrelated to anything SMQ said except the fact that it happened at around the same time. Indian media started speculating, they put 2+2 together and published a hit piece that Saudi is punishing Pakistan for brining up Kashmir at OIC by pulling oil deal and loan. However SMQ Kashmir statement and Saudi reaction is not related in any way besides the fact that it happened around the same time. Typically Indian media is garbage in Pakistan, but this story was a little bit different because Pakistanis themselves believe the same story about Saudis getting angry over Kashmir OIC that Indians cooked up and hence this is giving more credibility to Indian media on this story in Pakistan than normal because Pakistanis themselves are saying same thing as Indians.

Saudis are not angry about Kashmir. It might be a factor but it is a side issue for them. Saudis would not cancel an oil deal or call a loan over Kashmir dispute because Saudi is familiar with this Kashmir issue in Pakistan for decades and many years and it is not something new that happened recently. For Saudis, Kashmir is a tiny issue that does not matter to them or affect them in any way. Saudis do not care about Kashmir, it is irrelevant distraction for them, and they would not take drastic steps over something irrelevant to them like Kashmir. There is something else completely separate going on besides Kashmir that caused Saudis to react like this so suddenly. So Kashmir is not the reason for this tension.

Nothing in Kashmir has changed recently. But something else big in Pakistan did change recently.

Think outside the box. Kashmir is small for Saudis. There is a different problem involving Pakistan for Saudis way bigger than Kashmir.

There is something much bigger in Pakistan that is going on that is a problem for Saudis....

Something big has changed recently and suddenly in Pakistan and it is not Kashmir. Think bigger. Much bigger.

Now think about this:

1. What event and recent development happened in last few weeks that involves Pakistan and is very bad for Saudi?

2. What huge change could be a bigger problem for Saudi-Pakistan that has nothing to do with Kashmir?

Remember that Iran-China $400 billion deal from few weeks ago?

That $400 billion Iran-China deal could not have happened without heavy Pakistani involvement.

Basically, in the eyes of Saudis, Pakistan was responsible for pumping $400 billion into Iranian economy vis a vis China.

Saudis are furious at Pakistan for this. Not only was Pakistan at the table between Iran and China to sign this $400 billion deal, it was probably Pakistan that gave Iran and China the idea and brought them to the table to sign this deal in the first place by helping to facilitate and connect the two with CPEC infrastructure links. Now what incentive does Pakistan have to do something like this? From Pakistan's perspective, if the Iran-China deal is $400 billion, probably $100 billion of this will directly or indirectly find its way into Pakistan's economy through infrastructure links either connected, added, or merged from Iran to China into existing Pakistan CPEC infrastructure. It was also in Pakistan's interests to kick India out of Iran and stabilize its borders by getting Iran into Chinese camp. So this $400 billion Iran-China is great news for Iran, Pakistan, and China.

But you know who its bad news for? Saudis, Israelis, and US. Saudis were watching Pakistan in this deal like a hawk. Saudis don't care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, but with China's help, Pakistan singlehandedly engineered the single biggest economic deal in Iran's history since the Iranian Revolution, which set off every alarm in Riyadh. Saudis were caught blindsided and utterly flatfooted by this move. For years, Saudis thought Pakistan was their puppet and that they could ignore Kashmir without consequences. Well, actions have consequences, a lesson the Saudis would soon learn. While the Saudis were busy dumping Kashmir to focus on isolating Qatar and killing Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan was quietly cooking up its own plans to distance itself from Saudis and get closer to Iran which gave Pakistan among the strongest support for Kashmir along with Turkey and Malaysia. An Iran-China deal was always a long shot that was never really possible on a big scale without Pakistan being onboard with it. For a while Pakistan didn't want to get involved in this, mainly due to what Pakistan believed to be Saudi pressure. However, a change of view and shift of opinion in Islamabad may have occurred after Saudi pressured Pakistan to boycott the Malaysia summit. In this sense, Kashmir was small the issue that triggered the much bigger issues later on. Imran Khan at some point must have realized that acting in alignment with Saudis would inherently mean going against Pakistan's national interest. And it is from this day that Pakistan began realigning itself, quietly with Iran on which Pakistan agrees on many issues. Iran supports Pakistan on Kashmir, but in reality, it is just a piece of one of many things that Pakistan and Iran agree on. Both agree that China is the future, both agree on Kashmir, both have economic difficulties, both share a border, both have common enemies with India/Israel alliance. Saudis disagree with both Iran+Pakistan on almost all of these key issues. It was natural that as both Islamabad and Tehran's tension with Riyadh and Washington increased that Pakistan would look to counter it by leveraging their influence in Tehran and Beijing as Tehran did in Islamabad. The result of this gradual realignment that started after Malaysia summit fiasco was Pakistan's increased willingness to take opposite side of Saudis over a period of time. The ultimate result of these efforts by Pakistan to bridge the gap between Iran and China economically and physically is the $400 billion deal that was unveiled recently.

While Saudis might not care what Pakistan does in Kashmir, they will be angry at Pakistan for facilitating recent Iran-China deal which is a much bigger deal for them than Kashmir as unlike Kashmir, a stronger Iran backed by Pakistan and China has grave implications that directly undermine Saudi interests. Saudis feel that they must punish Pakistan for this, and as it happened, this reaction happened to come at same time as SMQ statement on Kashmir even though Saudi tension has nothing to do with it other than a timing coincidence.

Just speculation

• Iran is important for China as it produces Oil , a resource China needs
• Iran produces rare Pistachios
• Iran is agricultural Hub
• Iran is naturally desirable for a Power (Fossil Fuel Driven country) like China
• Iran scientist / PHD capacity is desirable for any Space project / Science project

Pakistan is focused on trade, Iran-China deal is China's own national interest


If China builds Military relations with Iran that has nothing to do with Pakistan , China is a independent nation who has relation with many countries of world


For Saudi-Iranian relations, that is their own personal matter they should sit on table to sort

• If China wants it can sell 200 J-10B to iran as part of Military alliance

Pakistan's general objective is peace in our Neighborhood and increase of global trade

Any proof? Your theory seems solid but it is a bit far fetched that China and Iran would need Pakistan for their deal.

Given that China has entered dozens of deals with various countries and the fact that it has a direct relationship with Iran, why would it need us to broker a deal of this magnitude (bigger than anything that even we have with them)?