Open Debate l Ex-UAE Mirage 2000-9s for PAF, aye or nay ?

[bc040400065]

@Basel

Ex Norwegien F-16s around 57 odd upgraded with MLU-M5 too can be a good deal for PAF.Around 120 odd Block 52 standard air crafts are a good deterence.

But those F16's are almost 40years old, How PAF will maintain them beyond 2020? won't they be to risky to operate?

 

[Kompromat]

But those F16's are almost 40years old, How PAF will maintain them beyond 2020? won't they be to risky to operate?

They have been given MLU and F-16 lines are likely to remain open well beyond 2020, at least for spare parts.

 

[MilSpec]

@Aeronaut

Older F16 air frames will see fatigue cracks, also the turbine blades in the past have seen fatigue cracks, I may be wrong, but it think there was a crash attributed to engine blade fatigue crack in a Jasdf F16..

do these MLU's also involve Airframe strengthening and retrofitting main landing gear units?

 

[Nishan_101]

Better to invest in JF-17s and K-8s along with super Mushak production which is helpful for Pakistan also we should invest in block-II production and make 100 of Block-II JF-17s if we had money.

 

[fatman17]

we keep beating dead horses dont we

 

[bc040400065]

@Aeronaut

Older F16 air frames will see fatigue cracks, also the turbine blades in the past have seen fatigue cracks, I may be wrong, but it think there was a crash attributed to engine blade fatigue crack in a Jasdf F16..

do these MLU's also involve Airframe strengthening and retrofitting main landing gear units?

What looks like that f16 will be the next mirage 3/5 for PAF. They will keep them till at-least 2040. Same story will be repeated again.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@Aeronaut
Firstly. does the PAF have the capital acqustion funds for such a procurement? IIRC the PAF has already said it will fail to meet self-imposed modernsation standards/force levels by 2017 because of a lack of funds, conisdering M2K-9s weren't even part of this plan I would speculate there is effectively 0 cash for any deal like this.

I'll follow your blueprint though:

* Strengths of such a procurement.
- The PAF has extensive experience in the Mirage birds (albeit an earlier model) not to mention Pak aerospace industeries have expereince in upgrading these Mirages (see ROSE). The M2K-9s fit with the PAF's single engine methodology. The M2K-9s are lethal machines and will add some serious teeth to the PAF's combat effectivness, complimenting the Thunder and F-16 nicely against an ever expanding IAF who faces none of the finacial constraints of the PAF. As this is a non-US bird one doesn't have to worry about the drama that comes with US products ie end-user agreements and sealed parts of your own a/c that you aren't even allowed to look inside. The French are a independant nation and won't just be the US's lacky.

* Weaknesses of such a procurement
- The IAF has already been using this bird for decades and is all too familiar with it, they've studied inside and out, compared how it performs against other fighters in their inventory, have sent it to their "top guns" (TACDE) and thus have almost unlimited literature on this bird and know very well what she can do-they've even gone to war with the bird. Addtionally with the IAF upgrading their M2Ks to a standard comparable with the -9s the UAE M2Ks won't really give any descernable edge over the IAF. Cost is obviously another issue of this procurement as it's unclear whether the PAF could even afford to fly this bird over the course of its remaining life span let alone the upfront unit costs. Any M2K-9 procurement may eat into JF-17 Blk2/3 orders which, long term, isn't good for the Pak aerospace industry. Now given the French are already looking to bag untold tens of billions from deals ranging from the Rafale deal to subs to nuke power plant deals with India one can only summise they will be loyal to the one with the deepest pockets if ever it came to a point where France needed to make a choice. So France really isn't a loyal freind at all.

* Difficulties in creating the ground infrastructure.
- Well if Pakistan has the cash I don't see why there would too much issues in setting up such ground infrastructure. OEMs in France would be more than willing to assist.

* Maintainance
- Well I don't really know if anyone outside of the UAE's AF is aware of the true life left in these birds so it's quite hard to guage what kind of issues the PAF could have with these birds. Having said that the M2Ks are said to be very easy birds to maintain and given there is certain MRO facitlies in Pakistan for the Mirage IIIs I think things could work out on this front with little difficulty.

* Spareparts
During peacetime, if Pakistan gets good contracts in place with French OEMs for spares and keeps up their end of the bargin (ie paying) then there is no reason spares should be an issue as it is well known the Frecnch are trustworthy on this front and will deliver what they have been contracted to. Once simply needs to look across the border, despite all the "flying coffin" drama, the M2Ks in IAF colours have an impressive safety record. Yes this isn't a fair comparison as the MIG-21s are older machines etc etc but still. However, for reasons I have outlined, when/if it comes to Wartime I don't think the PAF should expect much from the French on this front.

* Refurbishment
- Surely PAC could deal with most of the Refurbishment/MLUs involving the M2K-9s?

* Operational effectivene* Operational effectivene* Operational effectivene* Operational effectiveness/role
- Well the M2K-9s are a true swing-role platform and given the electronics on the -9s are quite capable across the board. However as far as the PAF is concerned, perhaps the M2K-9s could be best utulised for "ground pounding"/strike missions with the F-16 Blk.52s taking the A2A role.

* Price we should offer for them
- This is a hard one as, like I've said, one doesn't know the true life left in these birds so one would have to figure this out before a price could be calaculated. But I think the price would still be upward of $25-7 million.

* Pilot training
- Shouldn't be an issue, again, if the PAF is willing to shell out the cash. I'm sure the FrAF or UAE AF would be more than willing to help the PAF get the inital lot of pilots up to scratch not to mention the PAF laready has a training syllabus for the F-16 and Mirage IIIs so there should be little difficulty here.

* Weapons package
- An interesting one really as I'm not sure how this would work. Whether the PAF would have to talk to the French about an arms deal or could buy the UAE's waepons all upfront. AFAIK Pakistan has certain arms restrictions imposed on it by the EU so maybe the top-end stuff like the MICA is out of the question.

* Any upgrades
-Depends on the life left in the birds AND how much the PAF has to spend. You can see how much the IAF is paying to up grade their M2Ks (more than $40 million apeice).

* Cost to benefit ratio
- All things conisidered it's got to be pretty low. These are second hand birds, ones your adversoy has initmiate knowledge of and you cannot be sure of spares and such in the long run.


I would just add that these dreams could all come to nought as IIRC the UAE was seriosuly interested in a "buy back" deal with the French wrt the UAE's possible buy of Rafales. So it could transpire that there is nothing for the PAF to buy. One will have to wait and see how this works out as by all accounts the UAE is waiting to see what happens with India and their Rafale buy. I guess it would be a bit of a stink if by buying the Rafale the Indians ALSO make this much-speculated purchase by the PAF out of the question.

Saudis too are negotiating Rafale, .

What?? I think you'll find they are not! They went for the EFT a LONG time ago and have invested heavily in setting up infrastructure for this platform in-country.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@Aeronaut addtionally. your assertation that once India is "locked into" the Rafale deal they lose all leverage with France so cannot do anything to upset a PAF-M2K-9 deal is pretty flawed and optimistic don't you think? Firstly even IF the IAF wasn't seriosuly interested in another 74 follow-on Rafales, even IF the long-term future upgrade/support contracts for 126-200 Rafales wasn't in itself worth billions to the French, even if the French weren't finilising nuke power plant deals worth billions, even if the French weren't looking to take part in SSK bids with India worth billions- do you REALLY think France would risk getting on the wrong side of India for Pakistan or for the sale of a few second hand M2Ks? Let's be realisitc mate. If India doesn't want this deal going through-it is going NOWHERE. If ther even is a deal to go anywhere as I've stated ^^

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

3 years from now---if the M2k9's are availble at 7 - 12 million a piece---they are a deal---anymore then geo politicl issues will be the deciding factor if more needs to be paid---. But in the end---paf needs to fight tooth and nail to get this aircraft---.

Pakistanis must already know what a force multiplier the jordanian F16 sqdrn has been and how much of a morale booster it has been for the public and the air force.

Paf has extensive experience in managing and maintaining the m2k9 fleet---so it should be an easy fit in.

Now why do we need n m2k9, when we hve Blk52-----why do you need a left arm fast bowler when you have an abundnce of right hand fast bowlers----.

The last and the most important part is " psychological warfare "---indians brag about knowing this aircraft inside out----& in the first encounters if paf can shatter that myth---that would smsh the confidence of the iaf pilots---.

So---for that reason alone----this aircraft is a must must---. Take the enemy on with its top best aircraft placing against it the same aircrft and then taking them out--- acoupe de grace---.

 

[Bilal.]

The most important question is whether it requires France's approval and if so why would France allow it?

 

[Luftwaffe]

Hi,

3 years from now---if the M2k9's are availble at 7 - 12 million a piece---they are a deal---anymore then geo politicl issues will be the deciding factor if more needs to be paid---. But in the end---paf needs to fight tooth and nail to get this aircraft---.

Pakistanis must already know what a force multiplier the jordanian F16 sqdrn has been and how much of a morale booster it has been for the public and the air force.

Paf has extensive experience in managing and maintaining the m2k9 fleet---so it should be an easy fit in.

Now why do we need n m2k9, when we hve Blk52-----why do you need a left arm fast bowler when you have an abundnce of right hand fast bowlers----.

The last and the most important part is " psychological warfare "---indians brag about knowing this aircraft inside out----& in the first encounters if paf can shatter that myth---that would smsh the confidence of the iaf pilots---.

So---for that reason alone----this aircraft is a must must---. Take the enemy on with its top best aircraft placing against it the same aircrft and then taking them out--- acoupe de grace---.

Sometimes we have to look towards Capabilities rather than cost of maintenance and other aspects. I posted in one of the Thread when Pakistan in mid-late 80s was looking into M-2000 and Torandos, the F-1 second "improved" production run was from 1977 to 1983-84 we could fairly say it was still brand new aircraft french had money to throw at developing multiple projects since Pakistan was unable to buy M-2000 at that time due to costs F-1 would have been next best thing we lost that opportunity, in 90s we lost opportunity now again we have something in sight don't know what would be the out come.

 

[Donatello]

Hi,

3 years from now---if the M2k9's are availble at 7 - 12 million a piece---they are a deal---anymore then geo politicl issues will be the deciding factor if more needs to be paid---. But in the end---paf needs to fight tooth and nail to get this aircraft---.

Pakistanis must already know what a force multiplier the jordanian F16 sqdrn has been and how much of a morale booster it has been for the public and the air force.

Paf has extensive experience in managing and maintaining the m2k9 fleet---so it should be an easy fit in.

Now why do we need n m2k9, when we hve Blk52-----why do you need a left arm fast bowler when you have an abundnce of right hand fast bowlers----.

The last and the most important part is " psychological warfare "---indians brag about knowing this aircraft inside out----& in the first encounters if paf can shatter that myth---that would smsh the confidence of the iaf pilots---.

So---for that reason alone----this aircraft is a must must---. Take the enemy on with its top best aircraft placing against it the same aircrft and then taking them out--- acoupe de grace---.

Actually Indian M2000s are under going upgrades, UAE ones are already the latest ones. So if PAF does get them, it would be a huge boost. You can literally neutralize the threat by IAF, as now you have an equal aircraft and you know it inside out. I think it's best that PAF seeks loans or whatever way to pay these aircraft. Them ending up IAF would be a huge disaster.

 

[MastanKhan]

Sometimes we have to look towards Capabilities rather than cost of maintenance and other aspects. I posted in one of the Thread when Pakistan in mid-late 80s was looking into M-2000 and Torandos, the F-1 second "improved" production run was from 1977 to 1983-84 we could fairly say it was still brand new aircraft french had money to throw at developing multiple projects since Pakistan was unable to buy M-2000 at that time due to costs F-1 would have been next best thing we lost that opportunity, in 90s we lost opportunity now again we have something in sight don't know what would be the out come.

Hi,

Thank you.Cost of ownership is like a fool's gold----higher performnce and capability is solid 24 K gold. When you have an enemy with three times the equipment & extremely potent equipment at that---your only saving grace would be your high performance equipment and nothing else----cost of ownership ain't gonna save the day.

Paf has blundered on so many occsions---first the F1, then M2k, then Rafale, then Grippen, then F16 Blk 52---.

Blk52----it should have been a part and condition of helping the U S against wot right from the begining.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Suprised we have not got any more F16 for long time since the small supply of 18 planes

Yet we happily turned down offer of 36 J10B first class fighters from China

 

[The SC]

@Aeronaut addtionally. your assertation that once India is "locked into" the Rafale deal they lose all leverage with France so cannot do anything to upset a PAF-M2K-9 deal is pretty flawed and optimistic don't you think? Firstly even IF the IAF wasn't seriosuly interested in another 74 follow-on Rafales, even IF the long-term future upgrade/support contracts for 126-200 Rafales wasn't in itself worth billions to the French, even if the French weren't finilising nuke power plant deals worth billions, even if the French weren't looking to take part in SSK bids with India worth billions- do you REALLY think France would risk getting on the wrong side of India for Pakistan or for the sale of a few second hand M2Ks? Let's be realisitc mate. If India doesn't want this deal going through-it is going NOWHERE. If ther even is a deal to go anywhere as I've stated ^^

Pakistan can get them for free, what can India do about it? What is a few hundred million dollars to the UAE?
2 or 3 squadrons of these birds can have a positive impact on PAK's air defense needs. Pakistan will have to pay for pilots training, parts, maintenance and weapons. The birds can be gited for a symbolic 1$.

Otherwise the UAE can gift one squadron to Morocco, one to Tunisia , one to Egypt and one squadron to Pakistan. I still remember that all of them wanted to by the M2K in the 80' but could not afford them, it will be a good brotherly gesture and a good start to the GCC unification extention.