Official: Iran needs 500 passenger planes

[rmi5]

and @Abii
Actually 4 millions visit, but that's not my point. I said there is the 'potential', and yes there is certainly the potential, doesn't mean it will certainly happen in reality.

Anyways, talking about that 500 number is meaningless for now, first we should replace current aircrafts, most of them, if there was the need for buying more, we'll buy, if there wasn't the need, we won't buy. It's not like Iran has already signed the contracts.

Serpentine jan, No, there is no such potential.
Iran will need some 50 big aircrafts for operating international flights, and some 100-150(at most) cheaper smaller size aircrafts for local flights, which even this one would cost a huge amount of money. Even if Iran can financially afford 50+(100-150) new aircrafts, I would have been surprised and satisfied.

 

[kollang]

Dear kollang, Delta which is the biggest airlines of the US and the world, operates 700-800 aircrafts. So, how this Irish airlines(that I have no idea about it) or Iran Air are going to operate 500 aircrafts is a big question mark for me. Let alone the financial issues apart. Unless Iran Air is going to enter international market which it will need expensive large aircrafts like dreamliner. one dreamliner, costs close to 300 million dollars, which it is just the initial cost. You need to double or triple of this amount for trainings, maintenance, investing on local airports, ... This cost is simply not affordable for Iran even in 10 years.

Rmi jan, you can check RYANAIR page in wikipedia.they already have 306 aircrafts and they have ordered 274 more and and there is a option of more 100 airplanes (B-737MAX).

BTW i agree with you on the number. 500 is still very optimistic but doable.i believe 300 to 400 is more realistic.

 

[Abii]

and @Abii
Actually 4 millions visit, but that's not my point. I said there is the 'potential', and yes there is certainly the potential, doesn't mean it will certainly happen in reality.

Anyways, talking about that 500 number is meaningless for now, first we should replace current aircrafts, most of them, if there was the need for buying more, we'll buy, if there wasn't the need, we won't buy. It's not like Iran has already signed the contracts.

What potential though? What is that based on? Iran is literally Mordor in 2015. It's an Islamic dictatorship under economic blockade, with harsh laws (laws that classify women as second class humans, no alcohol, dress codes and even laws on hairstyles and other 6th century restrictions) and awful infrastructure compared to modern countries. Where are you getting that 20 mln from????? Where are these 20 million geniuses going to come from? Again, Afghan and Iraqi shias don't count.

And you can't sign any contracts, that's our point. Iran doesn't have the money or the credit to take out such massive loans.

 

[rmi5]

Rmi jan, you can check RYANAIR page in wikipedia.they already have 306 aircrafts and they have ordered 274 more and and there is a option of more 100 airplanes (B-737MAX).

Honestly, I don't have any ideas about them. When I have questions about western europe, I usually ask @T-123456 who is a businessman living in europe. @T-123456 your inputs about this thread would be appreciated.

@Abii @Serpentine
20 million is really unrealistic, and reformists propaganda. Ahmadinejad was not this much "Khaaliband".
1. Except for a few countries(like Azerbaijan, and Turkey), other nationalities need to receive visa to visit Iran which takes and costs too much time and money.
2. Dress code makes every non-muslimah women to forget about going to Iran.
3. Alcohol laws will make every men to forget about going to Iran.
4. There are a couple of(literally a dozen of) good quality hotels in Iran and they are too expensive. a 4-star Iranian hotel(call themselves 5 star!) are sometimes(in Nowrouz) more expensive than 5-star hilton hotels!!!
5. Consequently, No foreigner beside shiites who want to visit Imam Reza's shrine, will come to Iran, in which they will mostly choose bus, except for Saudi shiites.

 

[Serpentine]

@Abii @rmi5

I'm not insisting on number 500. No matter what the number, as long as Iran has a safe, new and advanced operational fleet, that's enough, whether with 20 planes or 2000. I don't think we can judge the exact number needed now and arguing over it goes nowhere. Same goes for tourists.

 

[Abii]

Honestly, I don't have any ideas about them. When I have questions about western europe, I usually ask @T-123456 who is a businessman living in europe. @T-123456 your inputs about this thread would be appreciated.

@Abii @Serpentine
20 million is really unrealistic, and reformists propaganda. Ahmadinejad was not this much "Khaaliband".
1. Except for a few countries(like Azerbaijan, and Turkey), other nationalities need to receive visa to visit Iran which takes and costs too much time and money.
2. Dress code makes every non-muslimah women to forget about going to Iran.
3. Alcohol laws will make every men to forget about going to Iran.
4. There are a couple of(literally a dozen of) good quality hotels in Iran and they are too expensive. a 4-star Iranian hotel(call themselves 5 star!) are sometimes(in Nowrouz) more expensive than 5-star hilton hotels!!!
5. Consequently, No foreigner beside shiites who want to visit Imam Reza's shrine, will come to Iran, in which they will mostly choose bus, except for Saudi shiites.

Excellent points. I can add to that:

6. Shria law won't allow non relatives to travel together and the vast majority of tourists after old retiree couples are bf/gf tourists. Which moronic couple will want to visit a county like Iran?! lol

7. Even married couples won't want to visit when they can't go to a beach together. 99% of the reason why Canadians and Europeans travel is to go to a warmer country for a few weeks or months.

8. Alternatives! Iran, even at the best of conditions, is still not a good choice. There are many many better alternatives.

9. For 40 years Iran has been considered the world's most backward mid-sized country and to some extents it still is alongside Saudi Arabia. Even if IR falls tomorrow, it'll take 20 years for the image to be somewhat fixed. IR is going nowhere though. That image is also going nowhere.

I can keep going till tomorrow morning. 20 million tourists is laughable. First solve the mass migration, then worry about getting tourists.

Iran under IR should keep its focus on Afghan and Iraqi shias. Bus those guys in and out and get a few dollars out of them if you can.

@Abii @rmi5

I'm not insisting on number 500. No matter what the number, as long as Iran has a safe, new and advanced operational fleet, that's enough, whether with 20 planes or 2000. I don't think we can judge the exact number needed now and arguing over it goes nowhere. Same goes for tourists.

There's no arguement here. You and Kollang are insisting on the impossible. 20 million tourists in light of the facts that RMI and I mentioned is pure trolling and past the point of arguing. That 500 figure is also laughable.

 

[New]

Hey guys lets do a simple calculation here,
Oil barrels exporting today are less than a million or so, for the sanctions lifted, you call it raising to a number of around 1.5 m per day, multiply it by the value of 40$ for each barrel (we are optimistically ignoring the costs), that's a 60 m$'s a day of income, lets see the amount for an annual period, and that's something around 20 B$'s of annual income, and let me try the harsh side of reality, that's a 90% of Iran's annual hard currency income. That's not a detailed calculation, but a rule of thumb to show you guys the last episodes of this not so long drama. Guys, you need to be more realistic, the days of happy cheering of we are a rich nation have passed like the squeeze of a breath. The days of investment chances are passed, and to be honest, the days of easy money gaining of some backward mono culture, single product nations, are gone for the good of planet.
In the verge of the final days of these long run negotiations, this is just a cheap attempt of creating some temptation for the private sectors of the guys in the other side of the negotiation table.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Excellent points. I can add to that:

6. Shria law won't allow non relatives to travel together and the vast majority of tourists after old retiree couples are bf/gf tourists. Which moronic couple will want to visit a county like Iran?! lol

7. Even married couples won't want to visit when they can't go to a beach together. 99% of the reason why Canadians and Europeans travel is to go to a warmer country for a few weeks or months.

8. Alternatives! Iran, even at the best of conditions, is still not a good choice. There are many many better alternatives.

9. For 40 years Iran has been considered the world's most backward mid-sized country and to some extents it still is alongside Saudi Arabia. Even if IR falls tomorrow, it'll take 20 years for the image to be somewhat fixed. IR is going nowhere though. That image is also going nowhere.

I can keep going till tomorrow morning. 20 million tourists is laughable. First solve the mass migration, then worry about getting tourists.

Iran under IR should keep its focus on Afghan and Iraqi shias. Bus those guys in and out and get a few dollars out of them if you can.


There's no arguement here. You and Kollang are insisting on the impossible. 20 million tourists in light of the facts that RMI and I mentioned is pure trolling and past the point of arguing. That 500 figure is also laughable.

I've never been to Iran but a Chinese friend of mine working on Tehran Metro project speaks highly of the city (and other places of Iran) after spending some years there. After the sanction is lifted, it's time to invite tourists from around the world to see the beauty of Iran and Persia!

 

[T-123456]

Honestly, I don't have any ideas about them. When I have questions about western europe, I usually ask @T-123456 who is a businessman living in europe. @T-123456 your inputs about this thread would be appreciated.

@Abii @Serpentine
20 million is really unrealistic, and reformists propaganda. Ahmadinejad was not this much "Khaaliband".
1. Except for a few countries(like Azerbaijan, and Turkey), other nationalities need to receive visa to visit Iran which takes and costs too much time and money.
2. Dress code makes every non-muslimah women to forget about going to Iran.
3. Alcohol laws will make every men to forget about going to Iran.
4. There are a couple of(literally a dozen of) good quality hotels in Iran and they are too expensive. a 4-star Iranian hotel(call themselves 5 star!) are sometimes(in Nowrouz) more expensive than 5-star hilton hotels!!!
5. Consequently, No foreigner beside shiites who want to visit Imam Reza's shrine, will come to Iran, in which they will mostly choose bus, except for Saudi shiites.

Is Iran open for tourists already that you need 500 planes?
Shouldnt you wait for the nuclear deal to be finalized?

 

[Abii]

I've never been to Iran but a Chinese friend of mine working on Tehran Metro project speaks highly of the city (and other places of Iran) after spending some years there. After the sanction is lifted, it's time to invite tourists from around the world to see the beauty of Iran and Persia!

He went there for work, not as a tourist with his gf to sit beside a beach and drink Coronas all day. Thanks for being polite, but you're border line brown nosing here. You're not adding value to the discussion. I'd gladly go and work in Saudi for Aramco. But I would have to be insane to go there as a tourist.

 

[IR-TR]

Both Emirates and Turkish airlines are some of the biggest airlines of the world, which have achieved this amount of aircrafts/flights after many years. Still Emirates has less than 500 aircrafts. Iran simply will not need that number of aircrafts even for the next 10 years!!!

10 years is a long time bro. Look at how Emirates, Etihad etc grew in 10 years. Hell, you couldn't even call them countries 20 years ago. Iran has indeed a very large domestic market. Think Turkey but twice the size in geography. Aside from that, indeed also strategic location in the world. Like Turkey and Dubai etc. So Iran could definitely compete with them. 10 years is a short time in that respect. But including regional planes, single aisles and widebodies, Iran could surely absorb 500 in 10 years.

Baba what planet are you living on? Iran and Saudi have the same image as Mordor around the world. Who the hell wants to come to Iran other than Iraqi and Afghan shias going to Mashhad and Qom??? 99% of people would rather spend their hard end money in Turkey or India or... if they want to come to Asia. Those Iraqi and Afghan shias will take the bus btw. So who's left?

Iran doesn't have any use for 500 planes period. The money is also not there and neither is the infrastructure. Emirates Airlines and Turkish Airlines are two of the world's best airlines and they're two of the world's busiest. Comparing them with Mordor Airlines is stupid.

Iran Air was the largest and fastest growing airline in the Middle East during the 70's. Iran has a strategic location. Indeed it'll take many years to get rid of the 'pariah' image bestowed upon Iran, but guess wat. Even in business flights from around the world to the US, we'll need a couple hundred aircraft. And yes, let's not forget the 100-200 old jets flying now. Iran can have a bright future if well managed. All the ingredients are there.

But yes, Istanbul and the Turkish Riviera are tourist magnets. Iran doesn't have that. But business wise, sure.

Serpentine jan, No, there is no such potential.
Iran will need some 50 big aircrafts for operating international flights, and some 100-150(at most) cheaper smaller size aircrafts for local flights, which even this one would cost a huge amount of money. Even if Iran can financially afford 50+(100-150) new aircrafts, I would have been surprised and satisfied.

Iran would do very well to immediately buy a lot of second hand 'gas guzzlers', that nobody wants anymore. Some 747-400s, a340's and perhaps some older 330's, 767's and 777s. Aside from narrow bodies, I think those widebodies need immediate replacement. It's just dangerous to keep them flying.

Hey guys lets do a simple calculation here,
Oil barrels exporting today are less than a million or so, for the sanctions lifted, you call it raising to a number of around 1.5 m per day, multiply it by the value of 40$ for each barrel (we are optimistically ignoring the costs), that's a 60 m$'s a day of income, lets see the amount for an annual period, and that's something around 20 B$'s of annual income, and let me try the harsh side of reality, that's a 90% of Iran's annual hard currency income. That's not a detailed calculation, but a rule of thumb to show you guys the last episodes of this not so long drama. Guys, you need to be more realistic, the days of happy cheering of we are a rich nation have passed like the squeeze of a breath. The days of investment chances are passed, and to be honest, the days of easy money gaining of some backward mono culture, single product nations, are gone for the good of planet.
In the verge of the final days of these long run negotiations, this is just a cheap attempt of creating some temptation for the private sectors of the guys in the other side of the negotiation table.

You seem to forget Iran has a LOT of gas to export, and a lot of petrochemicals. And yes, electricity.

Iran's boom will not necessarily come from liquid gold immediately, but the SHEER amount of foreign investment. Think automotive production, those old vehicles need replacing, those old peugeots etc. Infrastructure investments: the Chinese are here. They invest up front. Subway lines, high speed rail etc. Household appliances etc. There is a lot to be made in Iran. Iran has been squeezed dry for the last few years, and now the race will be on. IF we get a nuclear deal.

PS: just a few days ago China has announced to finish the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Things like that. Turkey would like to double it's imports as well. Just the foreign energy investments are calculated at more than 200 billion in the coming decade. That's a lot of business.

 

[Uhuhu]

guys,even if sanctions will lift up, it's not gonna be like shah's era. maybe our economy will be fixed and be like khatami's era. in some fields we continue our progress, but in some others we cant. because of few regim's limitations, we wont have many tourists as italy, spain or our neighbors.

about the numbers of aircrafts, we have the capacity, thanks to shah.
in late of 70's and early of 80's we were gonna become a regional hub. so still we have good inf-structure, just some of them need to be upgraded.( but still there will be some problems, IRGC's interference. remember Imam airport project during khatami era.)

 

[IR-TR]

guys,even if sanctions will lift up, it's not gonna be like shah's era. maybe our economy will be fixed and be like khatami's era. in some fields we continue our progress, but in some others because of few regim's limitations. we wont have many tourists as italy, spain or our neighbors.

about the numbers of aircrafts, we have the capacity, thanks to shah.
in late of 70's and early of 80's we were gonna become a regional hub. so still we have good inf-structure, just some of them need to be upgraded.( but still there will be some problems, IRGC's interference. remember Imam airport project during khatami era.)

Tourism contributes about 30bn a year to Turkey's economy. That's about 30 million tourists. Turkey has a PPP GDP of over a trillion. Tourism isn't all that important. Iran has lots of energy, and a starved (from investment) population of 80 million. Meaning there is plenty of growth in aviation, regardless of tourism.

 

[scythian500]

and @Abii
Actually 4 millions visit, but that's not my point. I said there is the 'potential', and yes there is certainly the potential, doesn't mean it will certainly happen in reality.

Anyways, talking about that 500 number is meaningless for now, first we should replace current aircrafts, most of them, if there was the need for buying more, we'll buy, if there wasn't the need, we won't buy. It's not like Iran has already signed the contracts.

Iran has many airliners now... the Iran Air, Mahan Air, Aseman, Iran air tour have the power to buy 50 to 70 planes each... They have the money but can not buy it... Other airliners like Taban Air, Gheshm Air, Ata Air, Zagros, Caspian air they also can afford 10 to 20 new air-crafts each...

due to its strategic location, Iran can retain its presence as a hub for Asia-Europe and North to South trips in long run... It only need to get the infra (already have it), be it a new high quality airport (they are working on it.. with new hotel in IKA... new metro line to Tehran and new phases under development it will be high quality) and new planes... It is totally doable in 10 years since the day they get their planes...

Most of planes that regional airliners need are of small to medium range B-737 to A-320 series which are not expensive... The cost of acquiring a fleet of B-737 NGs (600/700/800/900 variants) or similar planes with all its needed spare parts and maintenance services will not exceed $60 - $90 Millions each... These planes can cover all major Iranian needs as all new gen 737s have the ability to fly up to 10000 kms in range.... I think if they have the possibility they would choose B-737 for longer range flights and A-320s for shorter regional flights as it is a more economic plane than B-737s...

If Iran does get rid of most sanctions but still not being able to buy from Airbus or Boeing then Iranians will definitely go for Irkut MS-21 bird or other new developments...

Regarding the financial part, I,m sure Iran will have enough money to buy at least 40 new planes each year... 40 X 70 millions= 28 Billions in 10 years.. If we take the average price at $70 million each, then 40 of them would be 2.8 billions a year... This sum is easily can be covered by all airliners... Iran has around $120 billion or more of blocked cash, when freed the gov would never say no to a chance to renew its aging fleet as they may never get this chance again... Let,s not forget that Iranian gov has to only pay for its own airliners, but will definitely credit private airliners to buy their planes... It is already being heard from Rouhani gov central bank and eco ministry that they will never use huge amounts of blocked money to create inflation and depreciating IRR... buying planes is a good way to avoid inflation and depreciating rial as it will add up to GDP and GNI in form of improved services and sales...This is a long temr investment so Iranian gov will definitely finance private airliners to buy few birds... so, it is possible..but how many planes they really buy may vary for sure...

Iran has top ranking in terms of number of airports in world... and from my personal point of view and based my own experiences... Iranian airliners can find passengers for at least 3 times more planes...Iran now has nearly 150 planes so 400 planes as announced is no big deal... I use to fly between THR-MHD a lot... The number of available seats is less day over day as more people can afford to fly but can't find an empty seat... Although an airport like Mashhad serves 170 to 240 flights per day and Mehrabad many more flights but you can still find thousands of passengers looking for tickets and can't get it...

One side of airline business is to serve incoming tourists to your flagship country...at least one million out of announced 4 millions at the moment are tourists or diaspora taking a visit... Today a good location, a good marketing and a good price can attract millions of travelers to use your airline to fly to any where in world not just to that specific country...

Other side is that Iranian airlines always were cheaper in ticket prices since I remember which includes pre-revolution times... Iran can again use governmental subsidies to help airliners create a foot print in rather competitive market... It can be done...
I agree that it is somehow a dream for Iran to get its international airline position back... but let,s hope with more planes there will be more passengers too!!

 

[Uhuhu]

Tourism contributes about 30bn a year to Turkey's economy. That's about 30 million tourists. Turkey has a PPP GDP of over a trillion. Tourism isn't all that important. Iran has lots of energy, and a starved (from investment) population of 80 million. Meaning there is plenty of growth in aviation, regardless of tourism.

every where and every field we need investment. tourism in compare to our others potentials(except oild and gas) is something that we can earn billions easy and we can make it in a few years.