North Korean Stand Off With the US & S.Korea: News and Updates

[Devil Soul]

N Korea preparing for fourth nuclear test: South
By AFP
April 08, 2013 -
SEOUL: North Korea appears to be preparing a fourth nuclear test as well as a provocative missile launch, South Korea said Monday, despite an unusually blunt call from China for restraint.

Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-Jae told lawmakers there were "signs" that another test was in the pipeline, with intelligence reports showing heightened activity at the North's Punggye-ri atomic test site.

"We are trying to figure out whether it is a genuine preparation for a nuclear test or just a ploy to heap more pressure on us and the US," the JoongAng Ilbo daily cited a senior South Korean government official as saying.

It was the North's third nuclear test in February and subsequent UN sanctions that kickstarted the cycle of escalating military tensions on the Korean peninsula.

While North Korea has made no secret of the fact that it intends to carry out further nuclear tests, most analysts believe a detonation in the current climate would be a provocative step too far, even for Pyongyang.

"It would just be unbelievably risky," said Robert Kelly, a political science professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.

"The Americans would freak out, for a start. I think a missile test is far more likely," Kelly said.

Intelligence reports suggest Pyongyang has readied two mid-range missiles on mobile launchers on its east coast, and is aiming at a test-firing before the April 15 birthday of late founding leader Kim Il-Sung.

Japan has ordered its armed forces to shoot down any North Korean missile headed towards its territory, a defence ministry spokesman in Tokyo said Monday.

A missile launch would still be highly provocative, especially given the strong rebuke the North's sole ally China handed it at the weekend and a US concession to delay its own planned missile test.

"No one should be allowed to throw a region, even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gains," Chinese President Xi Jinping told an international forum in southern China on Sunday.

Although he did not mention North Korea by name, Xi's remarks were taken as a clear warning to the regime in Pyongyang, which is hugely dependent on China's economic and diplomatic support.

 

[Juice]

Today did China wanna a war with U.S? Absolutely NO !
Today did China willing to send soldiers fight against U.S.A ? NO !

Mao's Red China fighted for the honour and respect by using soldiers' life, but now China fighted for development and better living conditons by using trade and investment. Today CCP always said "中华崛起/China's rise", without foreign customers where selling ur goods, how to earn huge money? Yes China market growing more and more bigger, but foreign market still occupy most profits.

If China won't wanna war with West, does DPRK could beat them? obviously NO ! So if DPRK crash, who will takeover them first? I believe China army must prepared, this time they would in again in the name of U.N army instead of 1950 "China People's Volunteer Army".

A most likely scenario......China would seek a UN mandate, US would support it....DPRK would become a Chinese protectorate. Strangely enough....the best outcome for the North Korean people....short of un-conditional reunion with the south.

 

[cnleio]

Strangely enough....the best outcome for the North Korean people....short of un-conditional reunion with the south.

I don't think both China and Russia support it.
DPRK not like former East Germany,its border directly close to China and Russia.Last West and East Germany reunion, due to Whole S.U and Warsaw Pact Organization crashed, two Germany countries far far away from Moscow and Russian lose strength to stop changes.

DPRK is not East Germany, and its position and relationship is very subtle for China and Russia. If i'm wrong, 1950s U.N army would have taken Pyongyang city or now U.S Airforce would have blow up N.Korea hundred times.

 

[cnleio]

China and Russia must do not welcome WAR in Korean Peninsula, also do not support any foreign military actions here.

In China, most ppl think Korean Peninsula is the "KEY" and "Springboard" into mainland of China and FarEast area of Russia, WWII Japan Empire did.

The Korean Peninsula has important strategic value, to protect safety of North China and FarEast of Russia far away from foreign army threats. But now U.S.A had stationed in South Korea, if U.S Army into N.Korea it seems for both of China and Russia must face to the same problem. What Chinese feelings when military actions to N.Korea or Korea reunion but U.S.A still stay in Korean Peninsula? Huh ... just like China and Russia would send millions of soldiers in Mexico, or send missiles to Cuba.

If U.S and S.Korea Army across 38th parallel into N.Korea, i fully believe both China and Russia never watch outside. United State of America wanna return Asia and play his influence in this area, they need own this "KEY"(The Korean Peninsula) to threat China and Russia, but both China and Russia never give up.

 

[Martian2]

The tail is wagging the dog

North Korea is trying to rearrange the balance of power in Northeast Asia at China's expense. They figure they have nothing to lose.

1. The North Korean gamble succeeds and the U.S. pays economic blackmail (e.g. fuel aid, food aid, lifting economic sanctions, etc.) to North Korea.

2. The North Korean gamble fails. Who cares? China paid dearly in blood to fight off the U.S. military during the Korean War from 1950-1953. Let's use the Chinese to fight the Americans again! It's their problem.

3. North Korea increases its options. By confronting the United States, Kim Jong-un has established himself as a hawk. He can do whatever he likes afterwards, including embracing the West. Kim Jong-un is trying to copy Nixon. Establish your hawkish credentials and later make peace with the enemy. This way no one can claim he is selling out his country to the capitalists.

We've previously seen this kind of tactic. Georgia started a war with Russia in the expectation of forcing America's hand. Here, North Korea is trying to start a war by forcing China's hand.

While America chose to stay above the fray in Georgia and let Russia annex 20% of Georgian territory, China cannot stay neutral on North Korea. There is no way China will allow the U.S. to come any closer to the Yalu River. Hence, China should annex North Korea for itself after a second Korean War and put a stop to this kind of brinkmanship.

 

[anon45]

The tail is wagging the dog

North Korea is trying to rearrange the balance of power in Northeast Asia at China's expense. They figure they have nothing to lose.

1. The North Korean gamble succeeds and the U.S. pays economic blackmail (e.g. fuel aid, food aid, lifting economic sanctions, etc.) to North Korea.

2. The North Korean gamble fails. Who cares? China paid dearly in blood to fight off the U.S. military during the Korean War from 1950-1953. Let's use the Chinese to fight the Americans again! It's their problem.

3. North Korea increases its options. By confronting the United States, Kim Jong-un has established himself as a hawk. He can do whatever he likes afterwards, including embracing the West. Kim Jong-un is trying to copy Nixon. Establish your hawkish credentials and later make peace with the enemy. This way no one can claim he is selling out his country to the capitalists.

We've previously seen this kind of tactic. Georgia started a war with Russia in the expectation of forcing America's hand. Here, North Korea is trying to start a war by forcing China's hand.

While America chose to stay above the fray in Georgia and let Russia annex 20% of Georgian territory, China cannot stay neutral on North Korea. There is no way China will allow the U.S. to come any closer to the Yalu River. Hence, China should annex North Korea for itself after a second Korean War and put a stop to this kind of brinkmanship.

What is your fixation with the Yalu River? The US can bring China to a standstill conventionally without troops on the Yalu.

As for China annexing North Korea, that is a viable option that won't start a war with the US, if there was a misunderstanding with my previous post. That only applies to trying to annex South Korea, the US would love it if China annexed North Korea. China gets to pay the costs of developing an economy and people poorer, more starved, and possibly more fanatic than that which China started with before Deng, and South Korea has a reason besides previous policies to stay in US orbit.


Of course there may be a new line of demarcation depending on if hostilities have already commenced, and that line may be further north depending on where US/ROK and Chinese troops meet.

And then of course you now have US troops on the now new Chinese border.

 

[Vitchilo]

The only problem with China annexing North Korea... South Koreans would be pissed since they want a unified Korea.

 

[Vassnti]

The only problem with China annexing North Korea... South Koreans would be pissed since they want a unified Korea.

Perhaps they would be willing to acept a Chinese controlled NK with free border crossing?

The pluses you dont have a lunatic with nuclear toys threatening to kill you every morning, you relatives in the north arent starved to death or sent to gulags when they dont cry hard enough at a glorious leaders death.

Thing is the story is over we can argue and offer half baked scenarios the fat lady has sung so to speak. The north has been able to act like a 2year old on the floor of the sweet isle in a super market for years because China and Russia were willing to put up with the tantrums. Now China has told the north to pull its head in Putin was a little more blunt pointing out he doesnt want a nuclear wasteland on his border.

North Korea can back down or cease to exist

 

[kalu_miah]

cross posted:

No，it's jiandao(*****)
Jiandao - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After liberation of Korea in 1945, many Koreans believed that ***** should be given to Korean rule, but the military control by United States of America in the south and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the north hindered any unified Korean claim to the territory. The chaos of the Korean War and the geopolitical situation of the Cold War effectively diminished any opportunity for Koreans to highlight the ***** issue. In 1962, North Korea signed a boundary treaty with People's Republic of China setting the Korean boundary at Yalu and Tumen, effectively foregoing territorial claims to *****. South Korea also recognizes this as the boundary between Korea and China.
Today, none of the governments involved (North Korea, South Korea, People's Republic of China, or Japan) make the claim that ***** is Korean territory. In addition, there is very little enthusiasm for irredentism among the Korean minority in China. Although there are occasional arguments over historical interpretation, this issue arouses very little emotion or official interest on the part of any of the parties, and relations between China and both Koreas remain warm.
In 2004 the South Korean government issued a statement to the effect that it believed that the ***** Convention was null and void. The resultant controversy and strong negative reaction from the PRC led to a retraction of the statement, along with an explanation that its issuance was an "administrative error."
A small number of South Korean activists believe that under a unified Korea, the treaties signed by North Korea can be deemed null, allowing the unified Korea to actively seek regress for *****. However, the current political situation make this a faint possibility at best. Also, some scholars claims that China's efforts to incorporate the history of Goguryeo and Balhae into Chinese history is an effectively pre-emptive move to squash any territorial disputes that might rise regarding ***** before a unified Korea can claim such or the Korean ethnic minority in the Manchuria region claim to become part of Korea.

From the wiki entry it does not look like an important issue for South or North Korean govt. except for a very small number of South Korean private activists.

I heard that although Chinese citizens of Korean origin have some privilege due to their common ethnic origin in South Korea, most people now-a-days recognize that they (Chinese of Korean origin) have completely assimilated to Chinese culture and consider them more as Chinese than Korean. Even when they move to Korea, they prefer to speak in Chinese among themselves, perhaps because they recognize that the Chinese identity will be more important for them in the future, while they do not hesitate to use their Korean ethnic origin to gain benefits from South Korean state. So I think both Korea's consider these population of Korean origin effectively lost and assimilated to Chinese culture.

Unification, on the other hand, is a far more important issue for both North and South Korea. It is the US and US supported politicians (Grand National Party) in South Korea who are against unification, while Uri party (or its latest incarnation) is for unification. US wants to prevent unification because that will remove the last excuse for keeping their bases in East Asia.

So if China wants the removal of US bases from East Asia, then I would think unification would be in China's interest.

But I do recognize that this is a complicated matter and there is no easy answers. The status quo will change slowly with China's economic and military rise.

As for the OP and topic, the US do not want a war, the US wants to maintain status quo. Its the same old brinkmanship and bluff by North Korea to get more leverage before the North Koreans sit down to negotiate, because a war would be suicidal for North Korean Kim regime, I would think.

 

[gambit]

"The USAF does not talk".

Right, USAFpulls back! As a few of wise of us know we (US and S.K.) are the provocative ones and, when China mobilized, we are not prepared: http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-...-brief-u-s-scaling-back-show-force-korea.html

Yeah...We 'pull back' to give a brat room to vent his childishness and to establish his rule over a crappy country. But do you really believe we cannot give this brat a spanking he needs?

The only problem with China annexing North Korea... South Koreans would be pissed since they want a unified Korea.

North Korea is already an economic burden on China and China is currently undergoing economic reforms. To annex a territory is to accept all responsibilities and duties regarding that territory and that includes economy. How long will it take for the new territory to be a positive contributor to China? This talk of annexation is nothing but fantasy.

 

[MooshMoosh]

Can someone answer this question;
Is North Korea really going to start a war after April 10th nuclear test or bluffing to show how powerful they are?

If it happens, is China really going to be in North Korea's side or just sit back and watch?

I'm confused, China and Japan are fighting over an Island, does that means China accused US of helping them so could be possible that China defends North Korea?

Not really sure if North Korea actually wants to start a "NUCLEAR" war lol, I wonder what's China's reaction if it happens.

 

[Fsjal]

Can someone answer this question;
Is North Korea really going to start a war after April 10th nuclear test or bluffing to show how powerful they are?

If it happens, is China really going to be in North Korea's side or just sit back and watch?

I'm confused, China and Japan are fighting over an Island, does that means China accused US of helping them so could be possible that China defends North Korea?

Not really sure if North Korea actually wants to start a "NUCLEAR" war lol, I wonder what's China's reaction if it happens.

1. Bluffing
2. Sit back, might warn NK
3. Don't think it's possible
4. China's Reaction would be anger

 

[Vitchilo]

Yonhap quotes #ROK source saying #DPRK shuffling missile locations in apparent bid to outwit intel monitoring

Kyodo quotes a Japanese defense official that a #DPRK missile launcher is in a "raised position."

N. Korean Paper Warns of Japan Nuke Catastrophe - HispanicBusiness.com
North Korea could target nuclear facilities in Japan if a new war were to begin on the Korean Peninsula, the newspaper of the (North) Korean Workers' Party said, warning of catastrophic damage.

Zhang Liangui, the most quoted Chinese analyst on N Korea, estimates 70-80% chance of war.

War With North Korea: Smallpox and Bioweapons Are the Real Threat, Not Nukes
War With North Korea: Smallpox and Bioweapons Are the Real Threat, Not Nukes

Those nuts are gonna start something. Why else would you move your test missiles to avoid intel gathering??

 

[visom]

 

[selvan33]

Kerry: North Korean Missile Launch Would Be ‘Huge Mistake’

By Steve Herman

America’s top diplomat, at the start of a four-day trip to Asia, is warning North Korea it will face further consequences should it test-fire a new missile.

After meetings with South Korea’s president and foreign minister, Secretary of State John Kerry made it clear that both North Korea’s bellicose rhetoric and its hopes of becoming a nuclear power are unacceptable.

Kerry, on his first visit to Seoul, warned North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong Un, not to proceed with an anticipated launch of a medium-range ballistic missile.

“It is a huge mistake for him to choose to do that because it will further isolate his country and further isolate his people who frankly are desperate for food, not missile launches,” Kerry warned.

Kerry’s next stop is Beijing. And while in Seoul he emphasized the Chinese government must “put some teeth” into ensuring North Korean denuclearization.

“China has an enormous ability to help make a difference here,” he noted. “And I hope that in our conversations when I get there tomorrow we’ll be able to lay out a path ahead that can defuse this tension, that can allow the people of the North and the South and other people in the world to recognize that people are moving this in the right direction which is towards negotiations and towards a reduction in the current level of tension.”

Provocation

Standing alongside Kerry, the South Korean Foreign Minister, Yun Byung-se, characterized Pyongyang’s threats as a “grave provocation” to the entire international community.

Both officials agreed the door remains open for dialog if North Korea makes good on the various international agreements it has broken concerning development of weapons of mass destruction.

South Korea’s semi-official Yonhap news agency quotes President Park Geun-hye as telling ruling party officials Friday there should be such a South-North meeting to “listen to what North Korea thinks.”

North Korea, after conducting a missile launch and nuclear test in the past few months, has in short order unleashed a string of threats against Seoul and Washington. These have included renouncing the 1953 cease-fire which halted the Korean War, threatening to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on the United States and declaring a state of war in effect between the North and South.

Kaesong

Pyongyang this week also pulled its 53,000 workers from the only remaining joint venture with the South, the Kaesong factory complex.

As Kerry was meeting top leaders in Seoul, the latest invective from Pyongyang warned Tokyo it would be “consumed in nuclear flames” should the Japanese shoot down any North Korean missile.

Kerry will wrap up his Asian trip in Tokyo.

Another U.S. official in Seoul, speaking on condition he not be named, said if North Korea launches a missile there will likely be “little or no warning.” Asked by a reporter if he sensed war was imminent, he
replied “not at all”, explaining there are no signs of North Korean troop movements to back up Pyongyang’s frequent characterization that the peninsula is on the brink of war.

NATO chief visit

The trip to Seoul by the top American diplomat also coincided with an unprecedented visit to South Korea by a NATO secretary general.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters he came to South Korea to demonstrate the international community’s united stance and firm message to the North that a peaceful solution can come through dialog.

“We don’t know much about what is real intention of North Korean leadership, but we do know from the past and we do know from what has actually happened, that North Korea has the capacity to launch missiles. They have done nuclear tests and that’s enough to express grave concern.”

The visits by Kerry and Rasmussen came amid a disclosure in Washington of an excerpt from a classified U.S. intelligence report contending North Korea is now capable of arming a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead. But officials at the Pentagon and the intelligence community quickly downplayed the analysis of the Defense Intelligence Agency. They say it would be inaccurate to suggest Pyongyang has fully tested or demonstrated the full range of capabilities needed to deploy a nuclear armed missile
Kerry: North Korean Missile Launch Would Be 'Huge Mistake' Eurasia Review