Will China Put An End To The Korean Crisis?
Chairman Mao always used to say China and North Korea were "as close as lips and teeth".*
Two communist countries with a shared border and shared ideology - one preparing to take over as the world’s superpower, the other like an errant and deranged relative threatening to start a nuclear war.
The US Secretary of State is in China after discussing the crisis on the Korean Peninsula with President Park of South Korea.
That was the reassurance leg of the trip when Mr Kerry metaphorically thumped the lectern and pledged to keep his allies in the region safe.
But it’s the China visit which is the absolutely crucial part of this Asia tour.
Mr Kerry believes China has the power and the influence to end this crisis. And he’s made it clear if China wants to be a respected member of the world club of top nations, it has a responsibility to use its power wisely. But it’s not that simple.
China has always steered well clear of public displays of interference in other country’s internal affairs. Just look at its abject refusal to support any meaningful UN action over the Syrian crisis.
It's a policy based on the simple notion that it doesn’t want anyone else to get involved in what goes on in its own backyard.**
But China does not want instability on its doorstep. If there’s a war North Korea will lose. If North Korea collapses there are a plethora of spectacular scenarios, not least the prospect of China’s People’s Liberation Army marching over the border and occupying the vacuum.
As things stand North Korea provides a convenient buffer between China and South Korea.
For South Korea China reads America. China doesn’t want to get into conflict with America. It’s too busy driving forward its capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
China’s economy must boom if the Communist Party is to stay in power.
So - it suits China to deflate this crisis. China supported the UN resolution passed on March 7 by the Security Council which sanctioned North Korea.
China props up North Korea and there are plenty of economic reasons why Kim Jong Un has to listen.
China cannot make North Korea back down but its become clear that China’s patience is running thin.
There was an unusually public critical and cryptic message from China’s new President Xi Jinping when he said "no one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain".
He was obviously talking about Mr Kim and North Korea. China’s foreign minister has also said China would not allow "trouble-making on its doorstep".
Clearly those lips and teeth are not quite as close as they were. More like lips and ears. The question is whether Mr Kim is prepared to listen to the warnings of its big brother.
