Election uncertainty begins to bite on stability, economic progress
Shahid Islam
Overcoming the fear of uncertainty is as uphill a task as is climbing the summit of the Himalayas.
While a lot is being written and discussed about the next general election, due by the end of 2018, precious little is known whether it will be an inclusive election partaken by major political parties, or the nation and the world will witness a déjà vu reminiscent of the 2014 electoral façade and the mayhem that accompanied it.
BNP’s mindset
Unless the uncertainties relating to the next general election are assuaged sooner, holding onto the current level of growth (7.24%) will be near to impossible.
Sources say the BNP is less bothered about the election due to three main reasons.
First: BNP’s party hierarchy believes the incumbent regime is unlikely to bring any constitutional amendment to comply with BNP’s demand for a non-partisan, caretaker, or cooperative regime of some sort to commandeer the election.
In that instance, BNP doesn’t want to its verb and credibility by joining the election under the same set up that had prevented it from joining last one.
Second: BNP thinks the government cannot afford another election, and another full term in the office, without fulfilling the whetting public appetite for a representational parliament.
An election like the 2014 one will tarnish the last vestige of the AL’s image, irreparably and irretrievably, so as to make it impossible in the future to reclaim the AL’s credibility as an institution committed to democratic governance.
Third: According to a reliable source, BNP’s senior leadership had confided to some regional and global powers that it doesn’t want to resume power without ensuring that a post-election revenge-spree will not turn the nation into a burning cauldron to put the blame squarely on the BNP’s shoulder.
Above all, of late, BNP’s relationship with neighbouring India has been smoothened up.
Besides, the fact that brutal attack on Mrs. Zia’s motorcade in late October on way to and from the Bangladesh-Myanmar borders by ruling party cadres became known to all who are watching the Bangladesh scene.
The BNP chief went to the Myanmar border area to see the plight of the hapless Rohingya refuges where almost a million of the uprooted Rohingyas are rotting in desperation after being driven from their ancestral homeland by the Myanmar military.
Ruling party’s road map
While these and other concerns may deter the BNP from participating in an election under the incumbent regime’s umpire ship, the regime in power also has a roadmap in the making to lure the BNP and its allies into the polling fray.
This ‘being prepared’ roadmap includes a variety of incentivization, confirmed by more than one sources,“including the PM and the BNP chairperson sitting on face to face dialogue when time ripens.”
That prospect had gained traction following an alleged secret meeting in London, UK, between Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Rehana, sister of the PM, during Mrs. Zia’s latest jaunt to the British capital for medical treatment. More than one source confirmed of such a meeting having taken place amidst a volley of exposures in the mainstream and social media of alleged plotting against the PM in person by a disgruntled section of the Bangladesh armed forces.
“Madam Zia and Mrs. Rehana discussed the necessity to deter jointly any military intervention in politics,” confirmed a source, insisting anonymity.
PM’s predisposition
That notwithstanding, PM Sheikh Hasina—who had already declared earlier of her antipathy to holding another election of the like of 2014 due mainly to the fear of prospective uncertainty and socio-political instability that may rob her regime of the desire to becoming a mid-income country by 2021 — remains unbuckled and unfazed, say her aides.
“The reason she’s not much visible in the public is purely medical,” confirmed a PMO official, alluding to her recent surgery.
There is no denying that the PM is aware of the private sector growth stagnation that instability ushers in, and, wants over all investment as percentage of GDP to increase from 28.97% to 34.4%. The goal of increasing the FDI from its current stymied level of $2.25 billion to $9.56 billion will also hit a breaker if political instability resurges.
Above all, the vision outlaid in the 7th FY plan (2016-20) will remain a chimera unless the cumulative investment can be accelerated to the level of $407 billion, in which the private sector is slated to carry bulk of the slab by contributing 77.3% ($314 billion) while the public sector to inject the remaining 22.7% ($92 billion).
Only by implementing policies commensurable to meeting these targets can create enough employment and productivity to reduce existing poverty level from 22.5 % to 9% by 2021.
Poor investment-GDP ratio
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the ratio of private sector investment to GDP staggers around 23.01% while the public-sector investment still hovers around 7.26%, despite, in FY 2016-17,Tk1,01292 crores (29.74% of the total budget) having been allocated for physical infrastructure building.
These and other election-related premonitions loom large at a time when the industrial growth is edging downward due to softer export growth, weaker domestic demand, and, warily fallen remittances.
Above all, the service sector, which alone contributes 56.7% of the GDP, is showing a steady decline too by registering only 6% growth, which is much below the national average.
One auto-rickshaw driver summed up the nation’s state of nervousness by saying: “Rice is gold, over taka 60 per kilo.
It’ll not come down before next election, which is far away.
We can’t bear it any more.”
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Khaleda discusses politics with US and Canadaian leaders
Special Correspondent
A Canadian parliamentary delegation held a meeting with BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia on Monday night.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas A Shannon met BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia at Khaleda’s Gulshan office on Monday morning (Nov 6).
At the meeting, the US delegation led by Shannon included other officials of the US embassy in Dhaka while Khaleda Zia was accompanied by BNP secretary general Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and others.
According to sources, the meeting focused on the on-going political issues, Rohingya crisis and the upcoming parliamentary election.
After the meeting, BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia’s meeting with Thomas A Shannon was productive,Fakhrul said the US delegation talked about the on-going Rohingya crisis with Khaleda Zia. Moreover, the political situation of the country was also discussed.
Meanwhile, a Canadian parliamentary delegation at a meeting with BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia on Monday night said their country wants to see an inclusive and credible election in Bangladesh.
“Our discussions were very lively and fruitful. They (Canadian team) told us very clearly that their country wants to see a fair, neutral and acceptable election in Bangladesh with the participation of all parties,” said BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.
A six-member Canadian delegation, led by Yasmen Ratanski MP, went to Khaleda’s Gulshan office around 7:00pm and held nearly an hour-long meeting.
Briefing reporters about the meeting, Fakhrul also said they discussed the country’s latest political situation and the Rohingya issue.
The Canadian parliamentary delegation arrived Dhaka last week to join the 63rd conference of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA).
Apart from Fakhrul, BNP standing committee members Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, Jamiruddin Sircar, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury and special secretary Asaduzzaman Ripon and Canadian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Benoit Préfontaine were present at the meeting.
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