New US chip export controls wreaking havoc on Chinas chip industry and causing industry wide decapitation

[F-22Raptor]

Dude, seems some people here are indulging in wishful thinking to suit their ego and pride. There is no denying that if this law is really real and implemented which seems to be the case, then it would have a drastic impact on China's semiconductor industry as a whole. There is no denying that.
The thing is that, the US is now treating China as a real rival and adversary(almost on a war footing) and to make it even more serious, the US is even ready to take economic losses just for its national security and maintain its technological lead/hegemony in the world. Its now almost official US policy and backed by all sides of US political spectrum. So China better get used to this new reality......no more hidding your so called "strength" and bidding your time, China is already too big to hide and the US won't allow you to hide anymore anyway. All bets seems to be off now.
China can't continue relying on US technology to carry on powering its industries and tech companies platforms. That era is over. The US wont allow that anymore. In fact I can predict that maybe even your mobile companies will one day be banned from using Android and your computers might even be baned from windows app(which they rely on massively and any other US technology/software product(like Intel processors etc) .

In fact if the US cuts any Chinese company/official/public off from their internet platforms like Youtube, Twitter, instagram, facebook etc etc China has almost no way of interacting with the world , since US technology/internet companies almost dominate the globe and discussion. China's own internet company are basically just restricted to their own borders. And coupled with the so called stupid Great firewall, average Chinese have been discouraged from accessing foreign websites or interacting with world audiences and even when they want to do so, they have to do so while relying on foriegn platforms(mostly US/Western ones, not chinese ones). In fact even the few that try to do so can only do so through VPN(like all of you Chinese on this site living in China do. Lol ) this shows how much China is lagging behind in this aspect.....reason Chinas own propaganda can only stop at its own borders.

In short, CCP will now need to start putting money where her mouth is, they will have to create an entire ecosystem themselves from a reliable working Operating system to every sector in semiconductor industry, to almsot anything high tech , Which takes alot of time, skills, technology, knowledge, planning, experience and huge investments to pull off. So no more freeriding on US laxism.

NB: If you really believe Chinese citizens who tried so hard to get US citizenship will now give up their US citizenship because of working in China's semi conductor industry then i have a bridge to sell you. Lol Many might want to help their home country develop as well but not at the expense of their US citizenship. Just like many members on here I guess

The Chinese suck so bad at soft power projection, they’ve let their one global hit social media app TikTok get dominated by American creators and content.

 

[gambit]

Sadly, a lot of comments on this site are pissing contests and Ad hominem attacks than a true platform for exchange of ideas. Unfortunately, that is true of most sites, and they tend to deteriorate absent some moderation.

Then be careful of what you read. Ask, or insist if possible, on supporting sources. Use keywords search whenever possible to verify assertions.

For example...Key words search for 'wafers excursion human cause'.

Yield Advantages Through Maintaining and Upgrading FOUP Populations

FOUPs were originally designed to serve as a wafer transport carrier from the FOSB, and then from process chamber to process chamber.

blog.entegris.com

Over 20 years ago, the semiconductor manufacturing industry moved to factory automation, not only to increase device throughput, but also to mitigate yield risk caused by human interaction with wafers.​

The word 'excursion' mean deviation from 'process of record' (POR).

https://www.lexjansen.com/nesug/nesug09/po/PO11.pdf

The case studies focus on back-end-of-line (BEOL) manufacturing process excursions. The semiconductor process of the present fabrication facility features an analog CMOS 180nm technology process-of-record (POR) with a conventional aluminum – 0.5% copper interconnect architecture with 240nm interconnect line – space metal layer M1 design rules and five layers of metal interconnects.​

A 'process of record' (POR) is not just a technical phrase detailing how a wafer travels but also is a LEGAL contract. A customer go to a foundry and want the foundry to create a chip based upon precise processes. The foundry lay out what are its capabilities. Customer and foundry agreed upon a POR. During wafer travel, any deviation from POR is call an 'excursion' and must be documented. Usually, a deviation is harmless. An engineer could be doing spot checks for whatever reasons. But hardware failures or accidental human interactions often cause large batches of wafers to be reworked or worse -- scrapped. Each wafer downgraded/scrapped is a contract violation and must be replaced at the foundry's cost.

If Apple paid for 1,000 wafers, and Apple is a Tier One customer, and if there is an excursion that ruined 10,000 wafers for a list of customers, the foundry must replace to Apple what was lost with 1,000 Product Grade Level (PGL) 1 wafers. Each company may have slightly different terminology for its prime wafers/dies, but essentially, all of them have different grades for different die quality. A 'prime' die is a die that passed all Functional/Parametric testing with literally zero repairs. If the wafer/die started as 128gb per die, the die must pass as 128gb with zero repair arrays used. Prime die is PGL 1. If some redundant arrays were used to make the full 128gb capacity, that die will be rejected by Tier One customers, the foundry must replaced at its cost, and the die is sold as PGL 2 or 3 to Tier Two/Three customers at a loss.

Wafers/dies that are slated for automotive, especially for autonomous or semi-autonomous driving, the wafer/die MUST be prime or PGL 1. No auto or airplane maker is going to risk deaths and lawsuits for using lower grades. Any foundry that broke contract will have its name broadcast to the entire industry and most likely blackballed for yrs. Apple, IBM, Lockheed, NASA, Sony, just to name a few, are Tier One customers and their contracts are valuable to anyone.

Chinese fabs are looking at thousands of experienced engineers loss and everyone know the risks of excursions of all causes increase exponentially.

You will not find technical information from the PDF Chinese on semicon like how I explained to the readers. They think it is easy just to use wiki and pass off as knowledgeable -- until I came around and debunked them.

 

[Arsalan345]

It's a great decision by the United States. Theft shouldn't be allowed at all. I urge Americans to deport every Chinese who is involved in technology theft. These thieves must serve in prison. United states technology shouldn't become easily available to the Chinese. Look at Russian technology, the Chinese copied everything. United states should think about severe sanctions on China.

 

[REhorror]

Here's hoping the chinese can do it, so we will cheap GPU or at least more competition within the GPU market.
Nvidia is leading it to hell and AMD doesn't seem able to compete.

 

[Ajamal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889341265469440

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889342402129921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889343417233409

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889344550002689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889345493413888

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889346722648064

China's again population and semi-detached diaspora is not capable of mainting china's China as the factory of the world. They are losing out the position very quickly.

 

[Beast]

Micron is investing $100b over the next 20 yrs in the US. Intel and everyone is experiencing a downturn cycle aggravated by COVID. You over in China can console yourselves by posting as much negative news about US as you can find, but overall, semicon is returning to the US, helped by some of your government officials talking about seizing foreign owned assets.

White American are lazy and only look forward week end to spend time with family. They have lost all the motivation to work since the mass promotion of freedom and human right. US can even throw 1 trillion dollars and manufacturing of chips will not come back to USA,.

China's again population and semi-detached diaspora is not capable of mainting china's China as the factory of the world. They are losing out the position very quickly.

LOL.. Yes reported by bias US media. Look at Chinese space development. Did US sanction on China space works?

 

[Han Patriot]

Micron is investing $100b over the next 20 yrs in the US. Intel and everyone is experiencing a downturn cycle aggravated by COVID. You over in China can console yourselves by posting as much negative news about US as you can find, but overall, semicon is returning to the US, helped by some of your government officials talking about seizing foreign owned assets.

So you can't compete and you force companies to invest. I thought US was all about free market economics. Looking at this desperate move, I guess Smee litho machine is up and running? Hahahah

 

[gambit]

So you can't compete and you force companies to invest. I thought US was all about free market economics. Looking at this desperate move, I guess Smee litho machine is up and running? Hahahah

So you cannot innovate so you forced foreign companies into joint ventures to steal their ideas...

White American are lazy and only look forward week end to spend time with family.

Nothing wrong with that. I guess that conditioning to obey the State did make it to the genetic level in China.

 

[Beast]

Nothing wrong with that. I guess that conditioning to obey the State did make it to the genetic level in China.

Very wrong, trying to spend all your time with family and not working or spend little time working. Who is gonna feed your family? State? Chinese are very practical people, We dont wait for state to feed you or give you money. You work hard for it. Nobody owes u anything. But western promote this kind of feeding mentality and laziness which is different from Far East culture.

The crumble of US society, rising crime, mass shooting, racist mugging, mass teen taking drugs, more adult american living off street and poor. You tell me US society is better than China? LOL.. Continue to rot with American lazy culture. Even Elon MUsk rather open factory in China to give Chinese job rather than giving his fellow American paid. You American can continue ask State to pay and feed u everything.. There is no free lunch.

 

[gambit]

Very wrong, trying to spend all your time with family and not working or spend little time working. Who is gonna feed your family? State? Chinese are very practical people, We dont wait for state to feed you or give you money. You work hard for it. Nobody owes u anything. But western promote this kind of feeding mentality and laziness which is different from Far East culture.

The crumble of US society, rising crime, mass shooting, racist mugging, mass teen taking drugs, more adult american living off street and poor. You tell me US society is better than China? LOL.. Continue to rot with American lazy culture. Even Elon MUsk rather open factory in China to give Chinese job rather than giving his fellow American paid. You American can continue ask State to pay and feed u everything.. There is no free lunch.

I can see your point. When you are only child, you have no siblings, no uncles, and no aunts. No life, really, except to give to the State. Congrats.

 

[epebble]

White American are lazy and only look forward week end to spend time with family. They have lost all the motivation to work since the mass promotion of freedom and human right.

Your statement will ring true when I can buy a computer with China designed CPU with its instruction sets (like X86, MIPS, ARM, SPARC etc.), China designed Operating System like Windows/Unix/Linux , China designed languages like C++, Java, Python running China designed Internet running Chinese version of TCP/IP, China designed browser like Chrome. Till then, a little humility may look good. I am genuinely keen on experiencing some Chinese creativity - for example, as in cuisine. But, outside of TikTok (I don't like it much), I have not seen any. Help me. I do like some old architecture, it is beautiful. Also, ceramics and costumes.

 

[FuturePAF]

Didn’t SMIC master 7nm chip production recently. Perhaps China will fall further behind and they will have to invest more heavily in recruiting and R&D, but aren’t 7nm chips still relatively modern enough for most applications at the moment.

 

[FuturePAF]

Dude, seems some people here are indulging in wishful thinking to suit their ego and pride. There is no denying that if this law is really real and implemented which seems to be the case, then it would have a drastic impact on China's semiconductor industry as a whole. There is no denying that.
The thing is that, the US is now treating China as a real rival and adversary(almost on a war footing) and to make it even more serious, the US is even ready to take economic losses just for its national security and maintain its technological lead/hegemony in the world. Its now almost official US policy and backed by all sides of US political spectrum. So China better get used to this new reality......no more hidding your so called "strength" and bidding your time, China is already too big to hide and the US won't allow you to hide anymore anyway. All bets seems to be off now.
China can't continue relying on US technology to carry on powering its industries and tech companies platforms. That era is over. The US wont allow that anymore. In fact I can predict that maybe even your mobile companies will one day be banned from using Android and your computers might even be baned from windows app(which they rely on massively and any other US technology/software product(like Intel processors etc) .

In fact if the US cuts any Chinese company/official/public off from their internet platforms like Youtube, Twitter, instagram, facebook etc etc China has almost no way of interacting with the world , since US technology/internet companies almost dominate the globe and discussion. China's own internet company are basically just restricted to their own borders. And coupled with the so called stupid Great firewall, average Chinese have been discouraged from accessing foreign websites or interacting with world audiences and even when they want to do so, they have to do so while relying on foriegn platforms(mostly US/Western ones, not chinese ones). In fact even the few that try to do so can only do so through VPN(like all of you Chinese on this site living in China do. Lol ) this shows how much China is lagging behind in this aspect.....reason Chinas own propaganda can only stop at its own borders.

In short, CCP will now need to start putting money where her mouth is, they will have to create an entire ecosystem themselves from a reliable working Operating system to every sector in semiconductor industry, to almsot anything high tech , Which takes alot of time, skills, technology, knowledge, planning, experience and huge investments to pull off. So no more freeriding on US laxism.

NB: If you really believe Chinese citizens who tried so hard to get US citizenship will now give up their US citizenship because of working in China's semi conductor industry then i have a bridge to sell you. Lol Many might want to help their home country develop as well but not at the expense of their US citizenship. Just like many members on here I guess

An interest element you brought up at the end is talent retention (not just ethnic Chinese, but perhaps if there are Koreans that use to work at Samsung, or Taiwanese that use to work at TSMC). What incentivized could China offer the cream of the crop to stay in China, especially if China starts to fall behind and these top engineers risk being out of the loop on the cutting edge of technology and relatively unemployable if they don’t leave.

China will have to build up its industry by allowing start ups to fail and learn from the process so as not be discouraged. This will mean a lot more spending on R&D.

 

[epebble]

Didn’t SMIC master 7nm chip production recently. Perhaps China will fall further behind and they will have to invest more heavily in recruiting and R&D, but aren’t 7nm chips still relatively modern enough for most applications at the moment.

See https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/column_7nm_chips_china/

Looks like it was a 'Prestige' project. Not a repeatable process. Interestingly, I am curious about their better known Loongson processor, but somehow it is never sold anywhere. I don't understand how they can make a successful product but not sell.

Loongson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[FuturePAF]

See https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/column_7nm_chips_china/

Looks like it was a 'Prestige' project. Not a repeatable process. Interestingly, I am curious about their better known Loongson processor, but somehow it is never sold anywhere. I don't understand how they can make a successful product but not sell.

Loongson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

High cost to produce? Or perhaps a high defect rate?

It might be prestige at the moment, but they will have to make it commercially viable if they hope to export it and flow the money back into their chip industry.