New Zealand will host the annual plenary meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in Christchurch on June 24, 2010. Though not listed in the formal agenda, the proposed China-Pakistan deal to set up two more nuclear reactors at Chashma is likely to come up.
When China joined the NSG it told the group that the Sino-Pakistan nuclear cooperation agreement permitted China to export the Chashma-2 reactor to Pakistan, small research reactors, and the fuel for these units.
On the basis of previous Chinese statements, the United States is expected to argue that the supply of additional power reactors would not be grandfathered. In that sense, the Christchurch meeting will demonstrate how far China is prepared to abide by its commitments to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the NSG guidelines.
The Indian example is not a precedent since Indias exemption had to go through the US legislative scrutiny and the NSG exemption. Pakistan cannot compare its non-proliferation record with that of India. The exoneration of A Q Khan by the judiciary of charges of unauthorized nuclear trade clearly implies that Pakistani proliferation had the approval of successive governments in Islamabad. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is still to get access to Khan. The proliferation, Iran being uppermost in international concern, started with a Pakistani deal with that country.
While there are fears in the West that Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons may trigger an arms race in West Asia as Saudi Arabia is likely to go nuclear to counter Iranian proliferation, the impact of likely Pakistani expansion of its nuclear arsenal exceeding Indias manifold which has been reported on by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on the west Asian situation, has hardly received any attention. Iran as a Shia Muslim state suffered half a million casualties at the hands of then Sunni leadership of Iraq and was subjected to attacks with weapons of mass destruction (chemical weapons) at the hands of Sunni Saddam Hussein.
Shias are targets of al-Qaida and its associated Sunni extremist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and others. Iran and Pakistan were in a state of covert war when Taliban ruled Afghanistan with Pakistani support. While Pakistan supported the Taliban, Iran supported the majority of Dari speaking people, especially the Northern Alliance. Reports from Washington media indicate that there have been secret missile deals between China and Saudi Arabia after 9/11. Even in the 1980s, as Pakistan assembled its nuclear weapons with Chinese proliferation help, it sold long-range CSS-2 missiles to Saudi Arabia. Those missiles did not make sense unless they had nuclear warheads. Since Saudi Arabia was the financier of Pakistani nuclear programme the logical inference was the Saudi missiles will get the Pakistani nuclear warheads when required.
With the Shia majority rule in Iraq the three Shia states Iran, Iraq and Azerbaijan, all oil-rich states, are rising in power and influence and this is a morale-booster for the oppressed Shia minorities in Sunni-dominated countries. The Shia-Sunni animosity goes back to the early years of the origin of Islam itself.
The Iranian nuclear ambitions are likely to be more to counter a two-front encirclement of Shias by Sunni Pakistan and Sunni Saudi Arabia. China appears to be taking full advantage of this conflict to make deals for oil with Saudi Arabia as well as Iran by selling them missiles, lending tacit support to Iran on sanctions and providing Pakistan additional capacity to make plutonium warheads to supply Saudi Arabia. Many observers believe the supply of civil nuclear reactors is only a cover for China to continue to sustain its nuclear proliferation to Pakistan going back to Bhuttos agreement with China in June, 1976. According to the disclosures of two US nuclear scientists, Thomas Reed and Danny Stillman in their book The Nuclear Express, Chinese even conducted the first bomb test for Pakistan on 26th May 1990 at their Lop Nor test site. So strong is the commitment of China to Pakistans nuclear capability.
China has a penchant to carry on successful business in conflict zones like Sudan or Afghanistan. Increased tension in the Af-Paf region or West Asia will make both confronting sides rely on China for missiles. Iran too depends on Beijing to lighten the rigours of sanctions. Now, US scientists have discovered enormous mineral resources in Afghanistan. China is already in the mining business in that country. They will have an interest in ensuring the US and Western multinationals are kept out of this newly discovered mineral treasure. It is time US and its allies looked afresh at the Iranian proliferation issue giving full consideration to the China-Pakistan nexus and the Shia-Sunni divide.
The great China-Pak nuclear nexus - India - The Times of India