My prediction: SCO will become a military alliance within 10 years

[ChineseTiger1986]

In ten years, China would become a huge economic and military power.

If China wanted to, Iran could become as important to China as Israel is to the United States.

China could arm Iran to the teeth to assert control over the MidEast.

Advanced radars, including anti-stealth radars. SAMs. Stealth aircraft. Real-time satellite information sharing regarding the Middle East region. Advanced UCAVs (possibly including Dark Sword). It could be quite extensive.

The other approach is to establish massive Chinese military bases in Iran to protect the country. The Chinese military personnel are experts with the Chinese weapon systems. They are the best qualified to use them. Protecting Iran would assure China a steady supply of oil.

Everything depends on whether Uncle Sam keeps pressuring all three countries over the next few years. If so, a militarized SCO becomes increasingly likely.

By the way, Iran is a huge country. I think it is like 2.7 times the size of Texas.

After that, China will have to pick side in the sectarian conflict, and Assad's regime and Hezbollah will also include as the allies for the SCO military alliance.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Well unlike , (drama queen India ) , Pakistan respect the SCO members

And we want to improve global bilateral trade and cooperation against anti terrorism efforts.

Pakistan already has defence agreements and MOU , and infact we had a navy practice few days back with China

However for SCO , our will is to develop good trade relations with central asian nations and slowly build defence relations as friends. Large scale defence partnership a level of organization are done after 10-20 years of close partnership

Pakistan wants better relations with all nations of SCO (Full members)

Right now , Pakistan and China are like Brother !! for other nations of SCO we are slowly building relationship understanding their point of view.

Shanghai group is great platform , to bring the people together sit down discuss trade, and economy well being for all countries.

Discuss purchase of oil & gas from Russia and central asia etc or discuss trade , how more companies from Russia / Central Asia or China can do business in Pakistan and also give our students chance to study in SCO countries and expand trade improve lives

 

[Martian2]

Russia and Iran both have huge oil reserves.

If the relations between the United States and China turn rancorous, China would be tempted to exchange a security guarantee for assured oil supplies.

Right now, China is sitting on the fence. It thinks a military alliance is bad for business.

However, if the US keeps annoying China in the South China Sea then China has a lot less to lose.

If relations between the US and China are already antagonistic, why not go all the way? Hence, I predict a militarized SCO if US-China relations go downhill over the next five to ten years.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

@SOHEIL, we want to know the comments from you and other Iranian members.

The US will soon announce the new sanctions on Iran, and the formation of the SCO military alliance will be a critical change for the future of your country.

 

[Martian2]

I will add one more prediction.

If China reaches the point where it is willing to form a militarized SCO, I predict China will re-annex Mongolia.

Mongolia was part of China until 1945. Also, Mongolia is huge. It is the size of four Californias.

Re-annexing and developing Mongolia would make SCO stronger and shorten ties to Russia.

If China is willing to use its military, reclaiming Mongolia like the way Russia reclaimed Crimea is a likely scenario.

Mongolia: 604,200 square miles
California: 163,696 square miles

604,200 / 163,696 = 3.7 Californias

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Pakistan wants relations with SCO nation to be friendly , so that country men can visit each other , improve tourism More Pakistanis going to Russia for vacation and also more Pakistani visiting Central Asia. We want to see more Russian / Central Asian companies visiting Pakistan opening offices , banks and other trade outlets like our Chinese colleagues

We like all SCO nations are against "Terrorism" and we have understanding to fight against such elements globally

What happens 20-25 years from now , etc is debatable but right now and in present Pakistan wants peaceful relations with SCO nations like we want peace with other nations of world

Average Pakistani does not know much about "Central Asian countries" so again using the SCO platform we can expand the understand of these countries with average Pakistani trader and public so that they also choose these countries to develop trade , engineering , medical research etc

When the Shanghai cooperation was announced it was a PROUD moment as a Pakistani to hear that Pakistan is considered as a full member in 2016 for this wonderful organization, which aims to promote economic development in region thru peace , dialog and cooperation


Also it was really proud moment again to see our Prime Minister Invited for important meetings for the SCO organization , the prestige to be in company of such wonderful leaders of SCO was tremendous and more joy came knowing the SCO organization bears the name of city of "Shanghai"from brotherly China

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

@Martian2, but Iran will also need China to demonstrate some sincerity to consolidate the alliance with them.

For example, to weed out the opposition for Assad.

PressTV-Iran urges China anti-Daesh fight

Do you think that China should get involved in Syria? If we did, then it is going to be easier to build up the mutual trust with Iran and its allies in the future.

@SOHEIL

 

[Martian2]

Here is the uncertainty. I can't tell if the United States is serious about antagonizing China.

The US sent a naval ship within 12 miles of a Chinese island. However, there were restrictions.
1. The ship had to turn off its radar.
2. The ship could not have any airborne helicopters.
3. The ship could not stop.

Next, the US sent B-52 bomber(s) over a Chinese island. However, the US claimed it was an accident.

What are we to make of these mixed signals?

If the US is serious about antagonizing China, I would feel confident about predicting a formal SCO military alliance.

With the mixed signals, it is currently too murky to make a prediction. Hence, I need five to ten more years of US-China relations to make a confident prediction.

@Martian2, but Iran will also need China to demonstrate some sincerity to consolidate the alliance with them.

For example, to weed out the opposition for Assad.

PressTV-Iran urges China anti-Daesh fight

Do you think that China should get involved in Syria? If we did, then it is going to be easier to build up the mutual trust with Iran and its allies in the future.

@SOHEIL

I think China has done as much as it's currently willing. In conjunction with Russia, China thrice vetoed the US resolution on Syria. The Russians can take care of the rest.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Here is the uncertainty. I can't tell if the United States is serious about antagonizing China.

The US sent a naval ship within 12 miles of a Chinese island. However, there were restrictions.
1. The ship had to turn off its radar.
2. The ship could not have any airborne helicopters.
3. The ship could not stop.

Next, the US sent B-52 bomber(s) over a Chinese island. However, the US claimed it was an accident.

What are we to make of these mixed signals?

If the US is serious about antagonizing China, I would feel confident about a formal SCO military alliance.

With the mixed signals, it is currently too murky to make a prediction. Hence, I need five to ten more years of US-China relations to make a confident prediction.

The PLA think tank believes the US is serious as China has already sensed the coming escalating conflict.

The White House is playing as the "good guy", but their intentions are all the same which is to contain China with every possibility.

 

[Martian2]

No one can stop China if it wants to re-attach Mongolia. The military capability is already there.

Similarly, Russia re-annexed Crimea when it felt like it.

Neither scenario is a fairy tale.

You're an idiot.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I think China has done as much as it's currently willing. In conjunction with Russia, China thrice vetoed the US resolution on Syria. The Russians can take care of the rest.

But they still urge China to assist the Assad regime and Russia to finish off the fight as soon as possible.

Since the opposition is backed by the US, and the current situation is going to perpetuity if China is not going to get involved.

It is a proxy war, not just Russia vs the Syrian opposition.

 

[Martian2]

But they still urge China to assist the Assad regime and Russia to finish off the fight as soon as possible.

Since the opposition is backed by the US, and the current situation is going to for perpetuity if China is not going to involve.

The US and China meet in annual S.E.D. (ie. Strategic and Economic Dialogue) meetings. No one knows what kind of deals are being made.

The US and China have co-existed peacefully and both prospered for 50 years. I don't sense that China is willing to take on the United States at this point. Hence, I think China will sit out Syria.

I think the ball is in the US court. If China becomes sufficiently frustrated with the US, we should see incremental resistance.

Things are kind of tense. I believe China and the US are neither willing to take on the other. However, both are frustrated with the other party. China wants the US out of the South China Sea. On the other hand, I think the US is mad that China lent Russia a lot of money to keep the Russian economy afloat. The US wants Russia out of the Ukraine.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The US and China meet in annual S.E.D. (ie. Strategic and Economic Dialogue) meetings. No one knows what kind of deals are being made.

The US and China have co-existed peacefully and both prospered for 50 years. I don't sense that China is willing to take on the United States at this point. Hence, I think China will sit out Syria.

I think the ball is in the US court. If China becomes sufficiently frustrated with the US, we should see incremental resistance.

2016 will be a year with full of surprises, so we are going to see how the world geopolitics is going to be.

 

[ganesh623]

No one can stop China if it wants to re-attach Mongolia. The military capability is already there.

Similarly, Russia re-annexed Crimea when it felt like it.

Neither scenario is a fairy tale.

You're an idiot.

So you think just because there is military capability its fine to go on around annexing the smaller countries around ?

By that logic do you even know how many countries USA can annexe ?
How many countries europe can annexe ?
How many countries even india can annexe ? Also pakistan can annexe afghanistan easily. Coz by your logic capabilitiy is already there.

You just proved this thread is a fairy tale and you are a clown of this story.

 

[Martian2]

So you think just because there is military capability its fine to go on around annexing the smaller countries around ?

By that logic do you even know how many countries USA can annexe ?
How many countries europe can annexe ?
How many countries even india can annexe ? Also pakistan can annexe afghanistan easily. Coz by your logic capabilitiy is already there.

You just proved this thread is a fairy tale and you are a clown of this story.

You are incredibly stupid.

The United States is a liberal democracy. During the past 200 years, the United States has already annexed all of the land that it wanted.

China is not a liberal democracy. China has not gone through the expansion phase that the United States has already undergone.

China has the military power. The only question is whether it is willing to use it.

By the way, all of your analogies are stupid.

Europe is expanding by pulling countries into the European Union/NATO. Europe has been expanding non-stop. Europe pulled in many of the ex-Soviet nations including the Baltic States. NATO just expanded into Montenegro.

The other minor countries can't expand, because they live in a neighborhood with a superpower (ie. China). You don't do anything without China's assent.

About six months ago, the United States and South Korea were suggesting re-uniting the Korean peninsula. China moved 100,000 mechanized troops to the North Korean border. The United States and South Korea stopped talking about re-unification.