Learning to dance with India: Gulf News
The relationship between the Asian giant and the GCC needs to be nurtured, not neglected
By Abdullah Al Shayji, Special to Gulf News
Published: 00:00 October 18, 2010
* The GCC states are aware of the facts and of Indias potential and future role.
For over a year and a half, I have been a member of a GCC-India joint research group that is composed of academics, former officials and diplomats from both the GCC states and India.
The group engages in serious debates and holds meetings and sessions in the GCC states and India to find ways to chart a course for a stronger and lasting strategic partnership between the two powerhouses.
Both the GCC and India have emerged as rising stars in their own right, with the largest GDP in a region that stretches from Spain to South Korea.
There is more in common between the two sides than disagreements, and there is a lot of potential for a win-win formula if both sides play their cards well, allay the other sides fears, accommodate each others demands and iron out some loose ends.
What drives us is the genuine interest in cementing and strengthening our strategic interests and elevating them to a formidable partnership that benefits both sides, building on historical ties, geographical proximity and harnessing the mutual interests to be the driving force for both sides.
This, in an era of blocs and alliances where fundamental changes are taking place at the international level. In a more multi-polar world, India is one of the major players, part of the famed BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and G20 groups and the GCC states are a powerhouse with responsible and moderate posture, sovereign wealth funds and contributions to international stability in terms of energy supplies and energy security in a world hungry for oil and gas.
There are changes underway in this region as well. New actors, rising stars, energy demands, new venues for investments, trade, and joint ventures would be the signs of things to come.
This project between the GCC states and the India is a bold attempt to chart future strategic ties. US intelligence predictions point out that there is [a] shift of wealth from west to east without precedent in modern history. Some pundits go as far as to say that the 21st century will be an Asian century.
As the GCC states collectively and individually implement their look-east strategy, India, along with China and other Asian giants, looms large and promises to strike a serious partnership.
Considering that India and China and other Asian countries import more than 70 per cent of their energy needs from the Gulf region, there is no doubt that they have a future role to play in Gulf security in a globalised economy.
Because of the economic meltdown and the rise of other stars with demands and interests who maintain good ties with Arabs and Iranians in the Gulf, it is possible to see a more international involvement in the region.
The GCCs substantial oil and gas reserves are of vital importance to Indias energy needs. In addition, the GCC countries host a large Indian expatriate community of more than five million who send $20 billion (Dh73.4 billion) out of the $60 billion transferred annually from the region. In short, the GCC states offer tremendous potential for cooperation in energy, trade, investment and manpower.
It is no secret that the GCC states are collectively looking for ways to diversify and expand their pool of allies, friends and partners. What is worrying us in the GCC are regional uncertainties that could have negative consequences with regards to failed and fragmented states, WMDs, terrorism and nuclear proliferation, which would precipitate a nuclear arms race.
From the perspective of GCC states, India has the potential of being a major player and power on the international stage with its growing economy, high tech industry, and its large pool of young population.
As a recent article in the Irish Times put it, India is so much more than impossible to ignore ... This is the understated claim made for it by foreign secretary Nirupama Rao ... Seventeen per cent of the worlds population, 1.2 billion people, half of them under 24, live in the huge, vibrant and glorious mass of contradictions that is India. Its booming economy is expected to grow by nearly 9 per cent this year, double the global average and faster than China.
GCC states are aware of these facts and of Indias potential and future role. Their leaders have visited Asian countries in the past few years. Indias role has been highlighted in confronting a host of challenges around the world.
Underscoring Indias potential and growing role and charting a future strategic alliance between the two sides, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during his visit to the GCC in 2008 insisted that India viewed the Gulf as an intrinsic part of its broader neighbourhood. Gulf states, which aim to diversify their security cooperation, have no quarrels over it, since they perceive India as a rising soft power neighbour with great economic, trade, investments opportunities, and which is a partner of the GCC in counter-terrorism efforts and securing energy supply routes. GCC Foreign Ministers in November 2008 issued a joint statement supporting a collective joint cooperation with the major powers navies to safeguard and protect oil passages and maritime security against pirate attacks in the Sea of Oman, Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
On a bilateral level, Indias dragging of its feet on the signing the Free Trade Agreement with the GCC states is a nuisance and should be addressed seriously by the Indians. This contentious issue between the two sides could stand in the way of a full strategic cooperation and is perceived by the GCC states as deliberate stalling, especially since the FTA was signed back in 2004. Trade between the two sides stood at $28 billion in 2007 and is projected to exceed $40 billion in 2010. But after three rounds of talks over the FTA, there seems to be little progress because of Indias insistence on protecting and safeguarding its domestic chemical and petrochemical industries to help give it an advantage over the competition from GCCs low crude oil cost. This violates the principles of FTA and GCC states object to this.
What has been alarming from the GCC states point of view was the new controversy that caught everyone by surprise and triggered negative coverage about India. It was the call by the Indian representative at the Manama Dialogue in December 2008 to GCC states to consider Indian expatriates as immigrants and not expats, which could entitle them to political rights and citizenship. This caused a lot of consternation, which can have far-reaching consequences if not addressed in a more accommodating and understanding manner by the Indians, considering how sensitive the issue of the large Indian expatriate presence in the GCC is.
Furthermore, three of the six GCC states have more foreigners than native inhabitants. No country in the world will tolerate or accept this huge imbalance between its natives and foreign population. As one GCC labour minister noted, it is the most threatening security challenge faced by the GCC states, even worse than a war.
In the final analysis, India, from the GCCs perspective, could provide added value in terms of all these opportunities. Furthermore, GCC states feel at ease in dealing with India. This is because India have no political agenda, and make no criticism of GCC states over political reforms. India does not carry any political baggage; it also does not impose its values or preach political reforms or interfere in the GCCs domestic affairs. It is a win-win situation for both parties that could be the foundation for moving this relationship forward.
Both the GCC states and India have a lot at stake. Both sides want to cement their strategic relationship. But India has to be cognisant of the fact that it has to meet the GCC states half-way through and address the contentious issues. Both sides should see eye-to-eye and be willing to cooperate and leverage their shared goals and interests to underpin their future relationship on a mutually beneficial formula in a changing world with multi-polar actors and rising and falling stars.
India is not impossible to ignore but it deserves a central role in future strategy of GCC states as they weigh their options in looking east. But India has to work on its image and address all the relevant issues GCC states have been raising and want answers for. On the other hand, GCC states should address Indias needs and interests and expand and deepen their strategic ties with India beyond energy, trade and expatriate workers.
Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is the Chairman of the Political Science Department-Kuwait University
gulfnews : Learning to dance with India
The relationship between the Asian giant and the GCC needs to be nurtured, not neglected
By Abdullah Al Shayji, Special to Gulf News
Published: 00:00 October 18, 2010
* The GCC states are aware of the facts and of Indias potential and future role.
For over a year and a half, I have been a member of a GCC-India joint research group that is composed of academics, former officials and diplomats from both the GCC states and India.
The group engages in serious debates and holds meetings and sessions in the GCC states and India to find ways to chart a course for a stronger and lasting strategic partnership between the two powerhouses.
Both the GCC and India have emerged as rising stars in their own right, with the largest GDP in a region that stretches from Spain to South Korea.
There is more in common between the two sides than disagreements, and there is a lot of potential for a win-win formula if both sides play their cards well, allay the other sides fears, accommodate each others demands and iron out some loose ends.
What drives us is the genuine interest in cementing and strengthening our strategic interests and elevating them to a formidable partnership that benefits both sides, building on historical ties, geographical proximity and harnessing the mutual interests to be the driving force for both sides.
This, in an era of blocs and alliances where fundamental changes are taking place at the international level. In a more multi-polar world, India is one of the major players, part of the famed BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and G20 groups and the GCC states are a powerhouse with responsible and moderate posture, sovereign wealth funds and contributions to international stability in terms of energy supplies and energy security in a world hungry for oil and gas.
There are changes underway in this region as well. New actors, rising stars, energy demands, new venues for investments, trade, and joint ventures would be the signs of things to come.
This project between the GCC states and the India is a bold attempt to chart future strategic ties. US intelligence predictions point out that there is [a] shift of wealth from west to east without precedent in modern history. Some pundits go as far as to say that the 21st century will be an Asian century.
As the GCC states collectively and individually implement their look-east strategy, India, along with China and other Asian giants, looms large and promises to strike a serious partnership.
Considering that India and China and other Asian countries import more than 70 per cent of their energy needs from the Gulf region, there is no doubt that they have a future role to play in Gulf security in a globalised economy.
Because of the economic meltdown and the rise of other stars with demands and interests who maintain good ties with Arabs and Iranians in the Gulf, it is possible to see a more international involvement in the region.
The GCCs substantial oil and gas reserves are of vital importance to Indias energy needs. In addition, the GCC countries host a large Indian expatriate community of more than five million who send $20 billion (Dh73.4 billion) out of the $60 billion transferred annually from the region. In short, the GCC states offer tremendous potential for cooperation in energy, trade, investment and manpower.
It is no secret that the GCC states are collectively looking for ways to diversify and expand their pool of allies, friends and partners. What is worrying us in the GCC are regional uncertainties that could have negative consequences with regards to failed and fragmented states, WMDs, terrorism and nuclear proliferation, which would precipitate a nuclear arms race.
From the perspective of GCC states, India has the potential of being a major player and power on the international stage with its growing economy, high tech industry, and its large pool of young population.
As a recent article in the Irish Times put it, India is so much more than impossible to ignore ... This is the understated claim made for it by foreign secretary Nirupama Rao ... Seventeen per cent of the worlds population, 1.2 billion people, half of them under 24, live in the huge, vibrant and glorious mass of contradictions that is India. Its booming economy is expected to grow by nearly 9 per cent this year, double the global average and faster than China.
GCC states are aware of these facts and of Indias potential and future role. Their leaders have visited Asian countries in the past few years. Indias role has been highlighted in confronting a host of challenges around the world.
Underscoring Indias potential and growing role and charting a future strategic alliance between the two sides, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during his visit to the GCC in 2008 insisted that India viewed the Gulf as an intrinsic part of its broader neighbourhood. Gulf states, which aim to diversify their security cooperation, have no quarrels over it, since they perceive India as a rising soft power neighbour with great economic, trade, investments opportunities, and which is a partner of the GCC in counter-terrorism efforts and securing energy supply routes. GCC Foreign Ministers in November 2008 issued a joint statement supporting a collective joint cooperation with the major powers navies to safeguard and protect oil passages and maritime security against pirate attacks in the Sea of Oman, Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
On a bilateral level, Indias dragging of its feet on the signing the Free Trade Agreement with the GCC states is a nuisance and should be addressed seriously by the Indians. This contentious issue between the two sides could stand in the way of a full strategic cooperation and is perceived by the GCC states as deliberate stalling, especially since the FTA was signed back in 2004. Trade between the two sides stood at $28 billion in 2007 and is projected to exceed $40 billion in 2010. But after three rounds of talks over the FTA, there seems to be little progress because of Indias insistence on protecting and safeguarding its domestic chemical and petrochemical industries to help give it an advantage over the competition from GCCs low crude oil cost. This violates the principles of FTA and GCC states object to this.
What has been alarming from the GCC states point of view was the new controversy that caught everyone by surprise and triggered negative coverage about India. It was the call by the Indian representative at the Manama Dialogue in December 2008 to GCC states to consider Indian expatriates as immigrants and not expats, which could entitle them to political rights and citizenship. This caused a lot of consternation, which can have far-reaching consequences if not addressed in a more accommodating and understanding manner by the Indians, considering how sensitive the issue of the large Indian expatriate presence in the GCC is.
Furthermore, three of the six GCC states have more foreigners than native inhabitants. No country in the world will tolerate or accept this huge imbalance between its natives and foreign population. As one GCC labour minister noted, it is the most threatening security challenge faced by the GCC states, even worse than a war.
In the final analysis, India, from the GCCs perspective, could provide added value in terms of all these opportunities. Furthermore, GCC states feel at ease in dealing with India. This is because India have no political agenda, and make no criticism of GCC states over political reforms. India does not carry any political baggage; it also does not impose its values or preach political reforms or interfere in the GCCs domestic affairs. It is a win-win situation for both parties that could be the foundation for moving this relationship forward.
Both the GCC states and India have a lot at stake. Both sides want to cement their strategic relationship. But India has to be cognisant of the fact that it has to meet the GCC states half-way through and address the contentious issues. Both sides should see eye-to-eye and be willing to cooperate and leverage their shared goals and interests to underpin their future relationship on a mutually beneficial formula in a changing world with multi-polar actors and rising and falling stars.
India is not impossible to ignore but it deserves a central role in future strategy of GCC states as they weigh their options in looking east. But India has to work on its image and address all the relevant issues GCC states have been raising and want answers for. On the other hand, GCC states should address Indias needs and interests and expand and deepen their strategic ties with India beyond energy, trade and expatriate workers.
Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is the Chairman of the Political Science Department-Kuwait University
gulfnews : Learning to dance with India
