MAKS 2013.......indian angle

[he-man]

There is nothing to contribute, worst case scenario almost every big project will now be pushed back by at least 1 or 2 years. Best case scenario, fund outlays already made will cover the situation for at least projects like FGFA and certain relatively lower cost acquisition. Rafale, naval projects beyond P-15A will be facing a good amount of delay- confirmed. The real scenario will lie somewhere is the middle. Beyond that, I will leave one last tidbit- if only there were more people with the common insight of the likes of Aakar Patel sans the crushing cynicism and ego.

Time to take a break from def.pk.
@Abingdonboy Hold the fort.

nooo!!!

There is nothing to contribute, worst case scenario almost every big project will now be pushed back by at least 1 or 2 years. Best case scenario, fund outlays already made will cover the situation for at least projects like FGFA and certain relatively lower cost acquisition. Rafale, naval projects beyond P-15A will be facing a good amount of delay- confirmed. The real scenario will lie somewhere is the middle. Beyond that, I will leave one last tidbit- if only there were more people with the common insight of the likes of Aakar Patel sans the crushing cynicism and ego.

Time to take a break from def.pk.
@Abingdonboy Hold the fort.

nooo!!!

 

[Abingdonboy]

There is nothing to contribute, worst case scenario almost every big project will now be pushed back by at least 1 or 2 years. Best case scenario, fund outlays already made will cover the situation for at least projects like FGFA and certain relatively lower cost acquisition. Rafale, naval projects beyond P-15A will be facing a good amount of delay- confirmed. The real scenario will lie somewhere is the middle. Beyond that, I will leave one last tidbit- if only there were more people with the common insight of the likes of Aakar Patel sans the crushing cynicism and ego.

Time to take a break from def.pk.
@Abingdonboy Hold the fort.

Bro I wouldn't be as gloomy about the immediate financial issue wrt defence deals. Unless defence budget cuts are made the situation should be relatively unaffected. The only issue is the increased cost of some deals that are being contemplated because of the USD-Ruppee ER. However I'm not all that concerned by this as most of the deals on the table now will have a fixed ER (from sometime in the last 2-3 years) built in to the contract so today's ER means little. Then there are the deals not being done in USD (Rafale). Then there is the simple fact that India's current economic issues are a short term mess but mid to long term things look pretty rosy still.

Maybe one or two deals will be pushed back by a few months and will be signed next fiscal instead of this fiscal but I don't think we should expect much worse. Large scale defence deals like the FGFA and Rafale should be relatively unaffected (much more so the FGFA though) IMHO.



And it's funny you say that @Dillinger bro, I too have been taking much more of a backseat here on PDF recently and have even been contemplating a holiday of my own from PDF!!

 

[Dillinger]

Bro I wouldn't be as gloomy about the immediate financial issue wrt defence deals. Unless defence budget cuts are made the situation should be relatively unaffected. The only issue is the increased cost of some deals that are being contemplated because of the USD-Ruppee ER. However I'm not all that concerned by this as most of the deals on the table now will have a fixed ER (from sometime in the last 2-3 years) built in to the contract so today's ER means little. Then there are the deals not being done in USD (Rafale). Then there is the simple fact that India's current economic issues are a short term mess but mid to long term things look pretty rosy still.

Maybe one or two deals will be pushed back by a few months and will be signed next fiscal instead of this fiscal but I don't think we should expect much worse. Large scale defence deals like the FGFA and Rafale should be relatively unaffected (much more so the FGFA though) IMHO.



And it's funny you say that @Dillinger bro, I too have been taking much more of a backseat here on PDF recently and have even been contemplating a holiday of my own from PDF!!

Yaara you need to check the outlays coming out of the sanctioned funds and tijoris. The FGFA is cushioned since a lot of the outlay has already been requisitioned for if not released. The Rafale deal, P-15B and P-17A projects will suffer the most.

 

[he-man]

Yaara you need to check the outlays coming out of the sanctioned funds and tijoris. The FGFA is cushioned since a lot of the outlay has already been requisitioned for if not released. The Rafale deal, P-15B and P-17A projects will suffer the most.

u are right and we need to prioritize things right now as the next 2-3 years are gonna be quite difficult,,,,,rafale is in real danger as our CAD has risen to 90 billion dollar,,,,,,we have to cut back on imports

 

[he-man]

new goodies!!!

side facing pakfa radar with 370t/r modules

@Dillinger @Abingdonboy @vostok

 

[Dillinger]

u are right and we need to prioritize things right now as the next 2-3 years are gonna be quite difficult,,,,,rafale is in real danger as our CAD has risen to 90 billion dollar,,,,,,we have to cut back on imports

Its not that simple. Everything depends on the sort of moves we will see on subsidies and sops next fiscal, investment environment, infra blockages being removed, proper fiscal discipline, certainty being brought in. The good thing is so far no requisitioning has been made from the consolidated fund of India for the Food security bill for eg. Lets see where it goes. All these ad hoc and ham handed measures are going to crystallize into a proper crisis if steps are not taken- at least we see very quick movement in the infra sector- around 50 large stalled projects out of around 300+ were fast tracked in the last week with the required credit flow and FSAs being properly and completely provided for thus clearing the last mile hurdles- the rest are undergoing scrutiny by a special cell so that's good movement on around 2 lakh crores and another 8-9 lackh crores pending. VERY choppy, I can't elucidate on every macro-economic move, sector atm. But its going to be a very edgy game of wait and watch.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Yaara you need to check the outlays coming out of the sanctioned funds and tijoris. The FGFA is cushioned since a lot of the outlay has already been requisitioned for if not released. The Rafale deal, P-15B and P-17A projects will suffer the most.

You're right about the FGFA mate. However wrt the P-15B and P-17A projects as the intial work will all be indigenous (hull construction) I don't foresee much of a delay. But still these projects are yet to start but I don't think finances are the issue.


All payment for large scale defence projects/procurements are spread out over a considerable Period of time (a decade or more in some cases) so it's not as if the Indian exchequer has to cough up $20 BN USD (€12 euros) this year or $10 BN USD for 7 P-17A by March.


Like I said- I'm pretty optimistic.


There is also a poltical angle to all this, no govt now can afford to look weak in the face of seemingly open agression by China and Pakistan so defence deals will still be a priority.

 

[he-man]

You're right about the FGFA mate. However wrt the P-15B and P-17A projects as the intial work will all be indigenous (hull construction) I don't foresee much of a delay. But still these projects are yet to start but I don't think finances are the issue.


All payment for large scale defence projects/procurements are spread out over a considerable Period of time (a decade or more in some cases) so it's not as if the Indian exchequer has to cough up $20 BN USD (€12 euros) this year or $10 BN USD for 7 P-17A by March.


Like I said- I'm pretty optimistic.


There is also a poltical angle to all this, no govt now can afford to look weak in the face of seemingly open agression by China and Pakistan so defence deals will still be a priority.

i live here and i know we are gonna go for a spin soon enough,,,,,believe me

 

[Abingdonboy]

Its not that simple. Everything depends on the sort of moves we will see on subsidies and sops next fiscal, investment environment, infra blockages being removed, proper fiscal discipline, certainty being brought in. The good thing is so far no requisitioning has been made from the consolidated fund of India for the Food security bill for eg. Lets see where it goes. All these ad hoc and ham handed measures are going to crystallize into a proper crisis if steps are not taken- at least we see very quick movement in the infra sector- around 50 large stalled projects out of around 300+ were fast tracked in the last week with the required credit flow and FSAs being properly and completely provided for thus clearing the last mile hurdles- the rest are undergoing scrutiny by a special cell so that's good movement on around 2 lakh crores and another 8-9 lackh crores pending. VERY choppy, I can't elucidate on every macro-economic move, sector atm. But its going to be a very edgy game of wait and watch.

Bro, you're right about now and the next 18 months but we should be looking at 5-10 years down the road where the economic outlook will be pretty pleasant. I think the talk of a crisis, personally, is very premature and exaggerated but then I'm just an economics student and not an official economist.


One thing I've noticed in the past year is Indians LOVE to talk themselves down- a tragic rape incident happens, NDTV is running a banner "no country for women" at the top of ever rape incident they report post Dec 2012 and making out rape is an Indian invention. This current economic hardship happens and the entire system is collapsing. Intrusions happen and India is a weak nation.


It simply isn't true. Some logical and rational thinking in a sedate environment is needed for once.

 

[Dillinger]

Bro, you're right about now and the next 18 months but we should be looking at 5-10 years down the road where the economic outlook will be pretty pleasant. I think the talk of a crisis, personally, is very premature and exaggerated but then I'm just an economics student and not an official economist.


One thing I've noticed in the past year is Indians LOVE to talk themselves down- a tragic rape incident happens, NDTV is running a banner "no country for women" at the top of ever rape incident they report post Dec 2012 and making out rape is an Indian invention. This current economic hardship happens and the entire system is collapsing. Intrusions happen and India is a weak nation.


It simply isn't true. Some logical and rational thinking in a sedate environment is needed for once.

Depends, the calls for a crisis are perpetuated not by whats happening in the now- you need to look at the steps taken since 2006 to now. 5 years of consistently overshooting fiscal margins by a large percentage- more than double- the 200+ stalled projects worth around a 100 billion dollars is the most telling example of the "policy paralysis"- its a good 5 years of skulduggery that got us here so don't expect it to go away too soon- at least 2 years from now unless the GOI goes in for shock and awe level of tapering.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Depends, the calls for a crisis are perpetuated not by whats happening in the now- you need to look at the steps taken since 2006 to now. 5 years of consistently overshooting fiscal margins by a large percentage- more than double- the 200+ stalled projects worth around a 100 billion dollars is the most telling example of the "policy paralysis"- its a good 5 years of skulduggery that got us here so don't expect it to go away too soon- at least 2 years from now unless the GOI goes in for shock and awe level of tapering.

What I don't understand is how this policy paralysis policy came about? What is the point in just stalling? What does the Govt gain?


I've come around to this- Modi with a sifnicant majority come 2014 would do nicely for India IMHO.

 

[he-man]

What I don't understand is how this policy paralysis policy came about? What is the point in just stalling? What does the Govt gain?


I've come around to this- Modi with a sifnicant majority come 2014 would do nicely for India IMHO.

the reasons

Sardar Speaks: REASONS FOR THE GLOOM................a layman's perspective

 

[Abingdonboy]

the reasons

Sardar Speaks: REASONS FOR THE GLOOM................a layman's perspective

Didn't MMS promise more reforms by the end of this fiscal? Do you not think yesterday's land acquisition bill outcome is a positive sigh for the road ahead wrt to paving the way for other bills/policies?
@Dillinger


Also what is going on with FDI in multi-brand retail? There was a lot of hype last year then nothing.

 

[vostok]

 

[Dillinger]

Didn't MMS promise more reforms by the end of this fiscal? Do you not think yesterday's land acquisition bill outcome is a positive sigh for the road ahead wrt to paving the way for other bills/policies?
@Dillinger


Also what is going on with FDI in multi-brand retail? There was a lot of hype last year then nothing.

Land acquisition bill is a lame duck- not much benefit to the farmers still some damage to the entrepreneur. Basically its like spilling mustard on your tee and still not handing you the hot-dog (as far as the people as a whole are concerned)...if only the farmer knew that there are 16 other LA bills which have been kept out of the ambit of the current one- which only subsumes 3 pre-existing LA bills within its ambit.