For me the matter is wide.
The issues are
1) Replacement of equipments which are past their expiry dates.
2) Bringing up the numbers .
The first one , is more important as a man in uniform losing life due to faulty equipment is the greatest shame for any nation.
And coming on numbers , we atleast need
A.) 1.25:1 Ratio in our favor in the western sector , and atleast 1/3rd of PLAAF in the north and east. Means about 450-500.
This means if I take 21 aircrafts to be a squadron , we need atleast 52 squadrons.
Now comes the two questions
1.) Money
2.) Options
Coming to first even if we are looking to spend 20-30 billion USD(not defence budget ,but budget for capital purchase) each year , for next 15 years , it is quite possible and money won't be a problem.
Now coming to options.
1.) Su30MKI
As of today we would be having ~232 of them. And the present order of 272 will be competed by 2019. Now here is what is disappointing. We have one working option here , and clowns at HAL have been "Successful in bringing down the production rate" from 15 in 2014-15 to 12 in 2015-16 , so as to extend the production .
What we need is to drill some arses, and get the production upto atleast 18 aircrafts a year.
And the Su30MKI line is the most probably one which will be transformed by 2024 to build FGFA.
So it gives us a window to utilise this option more.Order atleast 4-5 more squadrons , 2 for Strategic needs , and two more to get 2 Mig 21 squadron replaced. ( Which by the 18/Year rate from mid 2018, to 2024 is possible ) [Here I am taking that 18/year from next year we will compete the present orders earlier. ]
This is possible, economically good idea too.
If we actually utilise this option we would be able to operate 18 Full Strength Su30MKI squadrons .
The Spare Parts Manufacturing in India and Super Sukhoi upgrade is also important.
2.) Rafale
36+18 from France should be aimed by 2022.
And meanwhile a MII deal , to ensure that we have a manufacturing unit by 2020 in India ready to roll out Rafale by 2021.
We should not wait to negotiate the MII deal , rather compete it by 2017-18 start constructing the manufacturing unit , capable of at least 1 aircraft every two weeks , meaning atleast 24 a year. 33 A year would be still better.
And order 198 more , so as to have 12 compete squadrons.
Now when we opt for the above two we already have 30 squadrons by 2030. (Assuming Super Sukhoi upgrade adds a minimum of 15 years to the very first Su30MKI ).
EVEN IF WE OPT THE TWO , problem remains with the quick replacement of over 150 Mig21s.
Here I would choose the cheaper option which is not even being thought about.
They are
3.) More Mig29SMT
Yes , order 2 full squadrons straight and add them all before 2021, which is all possible.
Its 1.) Cheap 2.) Damm Effective , and given the low numbers and direct G2G deal it will be easier to sign ( as there will be little pressure from other big companies here ) , and will also ensure Russia is in our side for at least 5 more years.
These along with present UPG will mean 5 modern 4+ gen multirole aircrafts , capable of taking on any aircraft which our enemy posses as of today.
4.) Second one is 2nd Hand Mirages .
Yes , you read it right.
We have an infrastructure in place ,capability to MLU too , and the experience too. And it will surely be cheaper .
Now you would think , where do we get the 2nd hand airframes from , answer is Egypt, Qatar and UAE. You will ask why would they sell us ?
Now let me take them one by one , Qatar as known is getting Rafales , to replace its seldom used fleet of 12 Mirage 2000, which it wants to get rid off. Second is Egypt , which too is getting Rafales , but you would say , how can I say that they want to get rid of their too ? Because UAE in 2014-15 offered Egypt 24 UAE airframes to strengthen their Mirage Fleet of 1 squadron , but they didn't , this also shows that how they are looking to replace the small fleet.
Now coming to UAE , the case is well known , and the new closeness too. 36 of their 67 are almost only a decade old.Also they are not going to sell all before any new deal signed , its better to negotiate and get the half.
Adding 12(Qatar) + 16( Egypt) + 36( UAE), to our 50, we will have 5 Squadrons.
And please , no , buying second hand if it serves our purpose is not shameful . Don't bring that type of crap to me.
And you can see , together the 3 and 4 , we are going to add 5 squadrons very early , replacing almost 5 Mig21 squadrons. They are cheaper options as of today .
5.) Su35 MKI
Now you would think why I am bringing this ? The answer is J31, 3 Squadrons of improved Su35 MKI , ( Which has been discussed with our top brass quite a few times by Russians) is the solution of the gap which may happen if PAF manages to get J31 before we get FGFA.
6.) LCA MK1A.
HAL at present is severely screwing this for its benefits , which is criminal.
Two lines , one Private and one HAL , with orders of 5 squadrons each.
These will replace the remaining gap.
And these 6 options , do solve our problem.
Untill we want to pay more , with more delays and more lives lost , I don't feel necessity of any 2nd foreign fighter jet.
@PARIKRAMA @anant_s @Abingdonboy
I don't feel we should shell out another 20 billions for an aircraft whoes importance is only for next 5-7 years for replacing Mig21s , when we have very cheaper and very quick options.
