Make In India - Fighter Jet musings - News, Developments, Updates - F16,F18, Gripen, Any other

[Abingdonboy]

What exclusive rights, nothing of the sort mentioned here...

SAAB would be setting up a production line in India with India only reaping the benefits if there are long term export prospects from this line. SAAB has promised Brazil exclusive marketing rights in S.America that could be one of the few large markets for the Gripen (Europe is already saturated and would be services from Sweden anyway and Asia is not all that promising for the Gripen) . There is little incentive for India thusly.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Oh look, the emprorer isn't wearing any clothes.......


Bro, it's amply clear to anyone who is interested in the truth that the SAAB and LM offers are basically exercises in futility. The Gripen NG is matched by the LCA MK.2 in almost every manner and the F-16 is a 1960s design, there is no room for a foreign LWF in the IAF. The only people pushing this are their agents and proxies in the media, neither the IAF or MoD are interested.

Gripen E will fly this Year., LCA Mk. 2 is nowhere close.
LCA Mk. 2 will certainly not speed up any schedule,
and significant extra delays is a significant risk here, based on experience.

Main problems with Gripen E.
1. Meaningless to buy, since LCA is as good.
2. If Gripen E is bought, LCA will be cancelled, because noone would want it.

Indian Logic....

SAAB would be setting up a production line in India with India only reaping the benefits if there are long term export prospects from this line. SAAB has promised Brazil exclusive marketing rights in S.America that could be one of the few large markets for the Gripen (Europe is already saturated and would be services from Sweden anyway and Asia is not all that promising for the Gripen) . There is little incentive for India thusly.

SAAB is discussing with several countries in Asia and Africa.
Based on the needs to increase strength of the IAF, the production line
is going to be fully booked for a number of years.

Development cost of upgrades would be shared with Brazil & Sweden,
not payed by India alone, like for LCA, F-16, F/A-18.

 

[Hephaestus]

Oh look, the emprorer isn't wearing any clothes.......


Bro, it's amply clear to anyone who is interested in the truth that the SAAB and LM offers are basically exercises in futility. The Gripen NG is matched by the LCA MK.2 in almost every manner and the F-16 is a 1960s design, there is no room for a foreign LWF in the IAF. The only people pushing this are their agents and proxies in the media, neither the IAF or MoD are interested.

Sir,
I read sometime back that India might go for 2 MII fighter programs (cryptic comments from RM MP). Is that a feasible option. If so what should be the 2nd line - Rafale being 1st. More so i'm interested in knowing how does it translate to Naval Air Wings requirements. Shouldn't there be some commonality.

A person i know tells me N-LCA is definitely on and was impressed with the initial capabilities.

Apologies if this has been discussed earlier.

 

[sathya]

Lets GET the Dassault help in setting up modern LCA production line, with private sector .
with snecma help we can even get kauveri engine to work in MK2
all made in india.

case closed, no F16/ GRIPEN.

Lets think about US UAV ..

 

[Abingdonboy]

Gripen E will fly this Year., LCA Mk. 2 is nowhere close.
LCA Mk. 2 will certainly not speed up any schedule,
and significant extra delays is a significant risk here, based on experience.

Main problems with Gripen E.
1. Meaningless to buy, since LCA is as good.
2. If Gripen E is bought, LCA will be cancelled, because noone would want it.

Indian Logic....

As @PARIKRAMA bas pointed out, for India the timeline for a Gripen or F-16 MII line would be a 2023 (at best) roll out of the first unit, by this time the LCA MK.2 will be readying for induction and the MK.1A will be close to 100 units in service. I'm not talking about anyone else but using the actual Indian context.


As for "Indian logic" most of it is common sense mate.

Sir,
I read sometime back that India might go for 2 MII fighter programs (cryptic comments from RM MP). Is that a feasible option. If so what should be the 2nd line - Rafale being 1st. More so i'm interested in knowing how does it translate to Naval Air Wings requirements. Shouldn't there be some commonality.

A person i know tells me N-LCA is definitely on and was impressed with the initial capabilities.

Apologies if this has been discussed earlier.

Parrikar is playing games, since then it has been made clear there is only one foreign OEM that is seriously discussing MII whilst the others (SAAB/Boeing/LM) are being allowed to make their case but it is more than a little doubtful that they will ever be seriously entertained. Not even the IAF wants their products now.

 

[[Bregs]]

Super sukhoi upgrades, faster induction of Tejas and MII of Rafale are the only logical choices for next 4-5 yrs for India which makes sense too. At later stages AMCA and FGFA should be expedited too

No where is the scope left for Gripen killing Tejas, F-16( Older design and risk of sanctions) and F-18 is of no use when in heavy category we will have super sukhoi and Rafale is medium role

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

As @PARIKRAMA bas pointed out, for India the timeline for a Gripen or F-16 MII line would be a 2023 (at best) roll out of the first unit, by this time the LCA MK.2 will be readying for induction and the MK.1A will be close to 100 units in service. I'm not talking about anyone else but using the actual Indian context.


As for "Indian logic" most of it is common sense mate.

100 LCAs does not meet the stated needs of IAF.

The LCA Mk.2, may suffer from the same type of delays as the Mk.1.
Even if it is available, it may lack S/W needed for it to be useful.
Weapons needs to be qualified, so it may not be really ready until 2030...

 

[surya kiran]

100 LCAs does not meet the stated needs of IAF.

The LCA Mk.2, may suffer from the same type of delays as the Mk.1.
Even if it is available, it may lack S/W needed for it to be useful.
Weapons needs to be qualified, so it may not be really ready until 2030...

There is a second line for the Tejas being planned. This will be by the private sector. This will be for the Mk1.A. The roll out plan is for each line to scale up to 18 planes in a year and optimistically to 23-24. The final number of planes for the Tejas Mk1.A will be closer to 300 planes. Why? No private player will put up a plant for making 50 planes. They will need at the least 150 planes to make any sense. This private player will then be involved in the AMCA also. You will hear about all this once the current Rafale deal is closed.

The Mk.2 will be nothing but a further customised IAF version of the naval version of the Tejas.

If another fighter line consisting of either the F16 or Gripen is selected, then, there will be no Mk2 for the IAF. The development for the naval Tejas will continue. But, if this is selected, then there is a major squadron increase kicking in. Why? You are then talking about at the least 500 lower tier fighters, 200+ Rafales and 300 Sukkhois. Not to mention the UAV squadrons. Last I heard a crazy number of 1000. I will take that UAV number with a huge pinch of salt.

By the way, @PARIKRAMA have you heard of any Army Aviation role for the Combat Hawks? For Close air support?

 

[Abingdonboy]

100 LCAs does not meet the stated needs of IAF.

The LCA Mk.2, may suffer from the same type of delays as the Mk.1.
Even if it is available, it may lack S/W needed for it to be useful.
Weapons needs to be qualified, so it may not be really ready until 2030...

The MK.1A is more or less what the IAF wants from the LCA right now. The MK.2 may take a bit longer than is ed right now but the MK.1A line(s) can keep running to cover the delays.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the IAF's doctrine is to employ the LCA/single engined LWF as a point defence fighter and rear guard, it is not going to go striking enemy territory, that will be the job of the "heavies" (MKI/Rafale/FGFA/AMCA).

Today's news of the Rafale deal finally coming to a close further entrenches this doctrine. The MK.1A as a highly optimised A2A fighter with a decent range, small RCS, high availability and exceptional situational awareness (thanks to perfect integration with the C4I systems of the IAF and an AESA radar) is more than enough to meet the needs of the IAF for their point defence/rear guard fighter. If it isn't then they focus on the MK.2.

+ @surya kiran there is next to no market for the combat hawk in India, it is being developed by HAL/BAE primarily for the export market.

 

[dadeechi]

I personally think there should be two separate sticky threads other than RAFALE. which would be the first MMRCA line

The second assembly line would be F-16.

SAAB would be for LCA MK2 (Re: its replacement)

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I personally think there should be two separate sticky threads other than RAFALE. which would be the first MMRCA line

The second assembly line would be F-16.

SAAB would be for LCA MK2 (Re: its replacement)

if formally any one of the 3 planes - F16,F18 and Saab gripen- any one is chosen as a MII line, a separate sticky will be created and this will be removed surely.

Till the time being since there is always 4-5 articles more or less every month and we dedicate and debate about them in separate thread , its necessary that this sticky thread is used for better collation of such news and discussions.


Combining this post with another here

Fortunately or unfortunately , that means that most of the future inventory of IAF would be coming out of factories at the same time - Tejas Mk-2 , FGFA & Rafale ( MII ) .I'm referring to a timeline of 2023 - 26.

Given the rapidly declining nos of aircraft with the IAF & assuming we have the full quota of Tejas Mk-1a ( not exactly top of the line aircraft ) nducted along with half or three fourths of the Super Sukhoi ( post MLU Sukhoi -30 MKI ) , that still leaves a huge hole in the inventories of fighter aircrafts in the IAG considering that the Jaguars, MIG -29 & Mirage - 2000 would be on their last legs.

Where will the other nos come from ?? @Abingdonboy & @PARIKRAMA

Don't you think there is a case here for the F-16 ( irrespective of whether it comes with full ToT ) or the Gripen - E ( irrespective of whether it's a potential Tejas Mk - 2 killer.IMHO , irrespective of the similarities between both the Tejas & Gripen , developmental work will not cease & we shall actually see both a naval & air force version of MK 2 .I have some additional points too which I shall make after your posts if you would be kind enough to oblige us with your views

Tagging @Abingdonboy too as this is a more appropriate thread for this.

There are two aspects. One the Mig29,Jags and Mirages would be used for another 15 years with reduced number of hours per year flight hours to sustain their life and will be retired from 2030 onwards (give and take couple of years)

The production numbers of new jets inducted of say when these above jets retire
LCA Mk2 - 16
Rafale MII - 16
FGFA - 8
Minus
1 squadron ~ 18- 20
----------------
Total new jets inducted 20-22 new jets per year.

So ideally it should balance it out.

Now if we consider LWF of F16/Gripen E
This thread has some of the views https://defence.pk/threads/indian-airforce-mmrca-lwf-alternate-discussion.448646/
Its about possible permutation combinations

Coming back to the point of say F16/Gripen E as second line

Assuming F16 uses the present Mig21 base infrastructure with minimal change , The cost of F16 Blk 70 as given by newspaper as $70Mn +other support packages + say Derby, Derby ER and Python combo + training simulator etc etc will cost anything in upward of $120 Mn

Assuming Saab Gripen E as LCA Mk2 (which is a wrong move as per me and i have said this to Saab), it will cost again in a similar cost for a package in and around $120+ Mn and even more owing to certain new specs and additional cost bcz of the much superior tech in Gripen .

The purpose of LCA Mk1A with such packages and weapons will all inclusive be around $60 Mn or 50% of this cost.

Its true capability wise Gripen E will be multiple of LCA MK1A but so is also 2-2.5X cost.

This implies if we justify Saab Gripen E as LCA MK2, either we have to drop F16 packaged deal or we have to get this package at best say 10-15% superior price to LCA Mk2. Implying if we get say flyaway also at $45-50Mn and all inclusive package price of say $70-75Mn for a Block 70 F16, yes it can be justified saying its additional capabilities at a suitable but manageable premium. And prime focus is to just get the numbers. In return keep USA happy and get something in bargain.

No doubt Gripen E will outclass and outsmart F16 Block 70. So if we are building a capability addition then i would prefer Gripen E as it gives me multiple effect of LCA and F16 . In such a scenario a little lower than 1:1 replacements wont eb bad also.

BUT

If we negate all cost stuff angle and focus on other points, Pilot training and evolving a matured strategy/tactic will take anywhere between 5-7 years. On top the surge in number of pilots required may also be a potential challenge . This does makes me feel LWF if needed does nt need a MII line.

Rather i would get say for example F16 from USA and get 5-6 squadron delivered between 2019-25 (6 years 6 squadron) and use the leverage and offsets in some other stuff /collaboration.

This helps me reduce time and unnecessary cost that comes with establishing MII line and waiting for so called benefit and TOT thing. Even reduce offsets if it gives a good bargained deal.

Incredibly such a move gives us the additional number by max by 2025 itself.

BTW my Gripen E POV in another forum

The Gripen E FOC is still some time awa. So negating the TOT part and if its for numbers credibly they can deliver more like in between 2023+ timeline post FOC attainment. So only viable soluton for quick numbers directly off the shelf is F16.

Now that goes against the very essence of a second line which aims at meeting the demands as well as creating a proper second aircraft manufacturing hub and MIC. This is as where the issue plagues me as both dont help us either.

The best solution according to me is using L&T and establishing a 16-24 jet per year line for LCA in private sector and start churning out HAL+L&T minimum 30-40 jets a year from 2021 onwards. Till MK2 comes keep churning our MK1A or a improved version of Mk1A+.

basically the cost benefit and established line and eco system helps us get a similar number like F16 with a much lesser investment. Not saying LCA Mk1A is more capable than F16 block 70 but it meets the numbers requirement quite easily. and also in a similar timeline.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Fortunately or unfortunately , that means that most of the future inventory of IAF would be coming out of factories at the same time - Tejas Mk-2 , FGFA & Rafale ( MII ) .I'm referring to a timeline of 2023 - 26.

Given the rapidly declining nos of aircraft with the IAF & assuming we have the full quota of Tejas Mk-1a ( not exactly top of the line aircraft ) nducted along with half or three fourths of the Super Sukhoi ( post MLU Sukhoi -30 MKI ) , that still leaves a huge hole in the inventories of fighter aircrafts in the IAG considering that the Jaguars, MIG -29 & Mirage - 2000 would be on their last legs .The full component of MIG - 21 & MIG 27 would be mothballed between 2019 - 2024.

Where will the other nos come from ?? @Abingdonboy & @PARIKRAMA

Don't you think there is a case here for the F-16 ( irrespective of whether it comes with full ToT ) or the Gripen - E ( irrespective of whether it's a potential Tejas Mk - 2 killer.IMHO , irrespective of the similarities between both the Tejas & Gripen , developmental work will not cease & we shall actually see both a naval & air force version of MK 2 .I have some additional points too which I shall make after your posts if you would be kind enough to oblige us with your views )

Don't worry too much about the IAF once the Rafale deal is signed bro.

1)The MiG-29s and M2Ks have been given extensive upgrades that will see them remaining relevent until 2030 at least (alone they easily match the PAF's top of the line fighter in capabilities and numbers ).
2) a similar story exists with the Jags (the newest airframes will be re-engined and also upgraded to the DARIN III standard that will keep them relevent for another 10-15 years).
3) The MKI is being inducted at a decent pace and the IAF will keep ordering them up to and beyond the 300 unit figure as they see fit. I won't discuss the Super MKI upgrade (needless to say it itself is a game changer in the region) but just the addition of the Brahmos-A ALCM is a major boost for the Indian military and a strategic asset.
4) The LCA is finally coming online and the MK.1A will be all the IAF needs it to be (and then some more)
5) Existing fleets (MiG-21/7) are being phased out but the pinch will only really be felt from 2019 onwards and the moves being made today (Rafale off the shelf induction, LCA induction etc) will stem this (somewhat).
6) From 2022/3 the IAF is going to expand RAPIDLY in both numbers and capabilities, some pain now will see plenty of gains in the not too distant future. If India can keep itself out of a conflict for the next 6 years you have nothing to be concerned about (and if it can't the IAF will more than hold its own).

Credit where credit is due, in the span of 20 something months this GoI has turned the IAF's fortunes around (Rafale and FGFA on track with AMCA developing in the wings also). Yes they will have to limp on for a little bit longer but the groundwork has been laid for them to be THE airpower in Asia and easily the finest airpower outside of N.America. The rot had set in so deep that the fix was never going to be quick. 2 decades of neglect has at least been stemmed and will soon(ish) be addressed.

Good days are ahead bro.


@PARIKRAMA bro I think I'll refrain (to the best of my ability) from commentating in threads about the Gripen/F-16/18/EFT for India, it is just too absurd to consider at this point. Unless something very dramatic changes I may as well discuss whether ancient Indians could fly. I'd prefer to live in reality and discuss what will actually happen, hypothetical matters do not really interest me.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

if formally any one of the 3 planes - F16,F18 and Saab gripen- any one is chosen as a MII line, a separate sticky will be created and this will be removed surely.

Till the time being since there is always 4-5 articles more or less every month and we dedicate and debate about them in separate thread , its necessary that this sticky thread is used for better collation of such news and discussions.


Combining this post with another here


Tagging @Abingdonboy too as this is a more appropriate thread for this.

There are two aspects. One the Mig29,Jags and Mirages would be used for another 15 years with reduced number of hours per year flight hours to sustain their life and will be retired from 2030 onwards (give and take couple of years)

The production numbers of new jets inducted of say when these above jets retire
LCA Mk2 - 16
Rafale MII - 16
FGFA - 8
Minus
1 squadron ~ 18- 20
----------------
Total new jets inducted 20-22 new jets per year.

So ideally it should balance it out.

Now if we consider LWF of F16/Gripen E
This thread has some of the views https://defence.pk/threads/indian-airforce-mmrca-lwf-alternate-discussion.448646/
Its about possible permutation combinations

Coming back to the point of say F16/Gripen E as second line

Assuming F16 uses the present Mig21 base infrastructure with minimal change , The cost of F16 Blk 70 as given by newspaper as $70Mn +other support packages + say Derby, Derby ER and Python combo + training simulator etc etc will cost anything in upward of $120 Mn

Assuming Saab Gripen E as LCA Mk2 (which is a wrong move as per me and i have said this to Saab), it will cost again in a similar cost for a package in and around $120+ Mn and even more owing to certain new specs and additional cost bcz of the much superior tech in Gripen .

The purpose of LCA Mk1A with such packages and weapons will all inclusive be around $60 Mn or 50% of this cost.

Its true capability wise Gripen E will be multiple of LCA MK1A but so is also 2-2.5X cost.

This implies if we justify Saab Gripen E as LCA MK2, either we have to drop F16 packaged deal or we have to get this package at best say 10-15% superior price to LCA Mk2. Implying if we get say flyaway also at $45-50Mn and all inclusive package price of say $70-75Mn for a Block 70 F16, yes it can be justified saying its additional capabilities at a suitable but manageable premium. And prime focus is to just get the numbers. In return keep USA happy and get something in bargain.

No doubt Gripen E will outclass and outsmart F16 Block 70. So if we are building a capability addition then i would prefer Gripen E as it gives me multiple effect of LCA and F16 . In such a scenario a little lower than 1:1 replacements wont eb bad also.

BUT

If we negate all cost stuff angle and focus on other points, Pilot training and evolving a matured strategy/tactic will take anywhere between 5-7 years. On top the surge in number of pilots required may also be a potential challenge . This does makes me feel LWF if needed does nt need a MII line.

Rather i would get say for example F16 from USA and get 5-6 squadron delivered between 2019-25 (6 years 6 squadron) and use the leverage and offsets in some other stuff /collaboration.

This helps me reduce time and unnecessary cost that comes with establishing MII line and waiting for so called benefit and TOT thing. Even reduce offsets if it gives a good bargained deal.

Incredibly such a move gives us the additional number by max by 2025 itself.

BTW my Gripen E POV in another forum
View attachment 335420

The Gripen E FOC is still some time awa. So negating the TOT part and if its for numbers credibly they can deliver more like in between 2023+ timeline post FOC attainment. So only viable soluton for quick numbers directly off the shelf is F16.

Now that goes against the very essence of a second line which aims at meeting the demands as well as creating a proper second aircraft manufacturing hub and MIC. This is as where the issue plagues me as both dont help us either.

The best solution according to me is using L&T and establishing a 16-24 jet per year line for LCA in private sector and start churning out HAL+L&T minimum 30-40 jets a year from 2021 onwards. Till MK2 comes keep churning our MK1A or a improved version of Mk1A+.

basically the cost benefit and established line and eco system helps us get a similar number like F16 with a much lesser investment. Not saying LCA Mk1A is more capable than F16 block 70 but it meets the numbers requirement quite easily. and also in a similar timeline.

I agree .This is cleatly going to be a toss up between the Gripen & F - 16.I don't foresee both being inducted .Though that would be stand of most posters here too . Further , I don't think it ought to or will be a case of Gripen E being our Mk 2 too.Not under this governments watch .

Gripen essentially rules itself out primarily coz it's work in progress.By the time Gripen E is out , we'd be out with our Tejas Mk 2 in plus 2-4 years which in my opinion is a reasonable time frame.While it may not match the Gripen in terms of its avionics & EW suite among a few other accessories, it certainly would be what the IAG desires & more importantly what ADE / HAL can deliver.

Morover , whatever short comings Tejas MK 2 may suffer vis a vis the Gripen E can always be made up in MLU given that Tejas Mk 1a , in my understanding doesn't offer much scope for it , or in a 3 rd iteration - Mk 3 which can also build on the LSA concept & be a fore runner for many of the technologies to be deployed in the AMCA .

Coming back to your theory of the Mk- 1a being CO manufactured by an L & T ( any other Pvt Player ) / HAL combine while full of common sense seems unlikely to take off given turf warfare & lines being drawn in stone by HAL ( though I suspect were it any other aircraft manufacturer in the world , you'd see a similar response.That'd be how any industry operates .The higher the stakes the more zealously companies protect their turf .The most likely excuse & deal breaker would be none of the Pvt sector players have any credible experience in full fledged manufacturing or assembly of fighter aircraft.) . We may see some positive movement in this direction in the Mk 2 series.

I won't delve into the ToT part of either Gripen or F - 16 , since as you rightly grasped the thrust of argument was on making up the nos ASAP. The idea of importing whole sale some 6-7 squadrons of the F -16 , while making eminent sense with the argument you made bolstering your point will not hold much water here with the present government given their emphasis on MII .

For a moment let's leave the cost part aside - for both Gripen as well as F 16 as the emphasis is on making up the nos ASAP.(Unfortunately , if we opt for the F - 16 , under the MII not only would the cost shoot up , the fact remains that there simply isn't much scope for any MLU which in turn means that in another 20 years from the date of induction somewhere around 2040 - 45 you'd be looking at replacements for both - Mk 1a & F - 16.But that's leaping too far ahead .)

The larger picture now unfolding is this - in mastering critical technologies as we progress , given the rate of progress in the current programmes we may see an active Plan B where in a stand by will be identified & agreements concluded just in case our desi R & D companies fail to deliver within a reasonable time frame .Such thinking which may make for ad hoc thinking or juggad now , will definitely emerge as a policy decision soon although the cost implication will be terrible given the pursuit of two platforms for the same role though I suspect that's the price one pays for self reliance & for leap frogging from 3.5 + to 5 + technology .I believe it's a price worth paying .Something which will yield big dividends in the future.

 

[dadeechi]

Another angle we are all forgetting that apart from convergence of interests on china factor to a certain level between India and US, by offering such planes to india to assemble, the US is also very cleverly luring India away from Russia which we can not afford in any case with vast amount of weaponry of Russian origin

No. We are not forgetting that. I don't think anyone if us has negated the Russian factor.

Project 23000e, the four warships, sukhoi upgrade, and other equipment on order as earlier elucidated by @PARIKRAMA is a bigger deal.
Money speaks

F-16 deal would pave the way for CISMOA and BECA.

Which other deal can do that?

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

Don't worry too much about the IAF once the Rafale deal is signed bro.

1)The MiG-29s and M2Ks have been given extensive upgrades that will see them remaining relevent until 2030 at least (alone they easily match the PAF's top of the line fighter in capabilities and numbers ).
2) a similar story exists with the Jags (the newest airframes will be re-engined and also upgraded to the DARIN III standard that will keep them relevent for another 10-15 years).

Agreed.But the point I'm trying to make is irrespective of the nature of the upgrades , all the above mentioned aircraft will be nearing the end of its life from 2025 onwards .That's precisely around the time , we're assuming the first MIi fighters from Tejas - Mk 2 , Rafale & FGFA makes it's appearance .

From training to getting the manuals wriiten to honing tactics on 2 different fighter jets ( not including the Rafale here ) would be quite a task

3) The MKI is being inducted at a decent pace and the IAF will keep ordering them up to and beyond the 300 unit figure as they see fit. I won't discuss the Super MKI upgrade (needless to say it itself is a game changer in the region) but just the addition of the Brahmos-A ALCM is a major boost for the Indian military and a strategic asset.
4) The LCA is finally coming online and the MK.1A will be all the IAF needs it to be (and then some more)
5) Existing fleets (MiG-21/7) are being phased out but the pinch will only really be felt from 2019 onwards and the moves being made today (Rafale off the shelf induction, LCA induction etc) will stem this (somewhat).
6) From 2022/3 the IAF is going to expand RAPIDLY in both numbers and capabilities, some pain now will see plenty of gains in the not too distant future. If India can keep itself out of a conflict for the next 6 years you have nothing to be concerned about (and if it can't the IAF will more than hold its own).

Credit where credit is due, in the span of 20 something months this GoI has turned the IAF's fortunes around (Rafale and FGFA on track with AMCA developing in the wings also). Yes they will have to limp on for a little bit longer but the groundwork has been laid for them to be THE airpower in Asia and easily the finest airpower outside of N.America. The rot had set in so deep that the fix was never going to be quick. 2 decades of neglect has at least been stemmed and will soon(ish) be addressed.

Good days are ahead bro.


@PARIKRAMA bro I think I'll refrain (to the best of my ability) from commentating in threads about the Gripen/F-16/18/EFT for India, it is just too absurd to consider at this point. Unless something very dramatic changes I may as well discuss whether ancient Indians could fly. I'd prefer to live in reality and discuss what will actually happen, hypothetical matters do not really interest me.

It's the fact that the Tejas -Mk 1a , which won't come in adequate nos between 2019-25 to mitigate the loss of the retired MIG's, which has prompted my posts.

That period is going to be one of the most critical times in the IAF's existence as it's mainstay the MIG 21 would start being mothballed ( the process for the MIG 27 begins next year onwards ) .Given that we're expecting the FOC for Tejas - Mk 1a around 2018-19, getting the full component of 100 odd aircrafts by 2026 will be our priority .That part seems achievable except in my opinion they'd be merely filling in the nos & not bolster the capacity of the IAF in any major way.

The induction of these aircraft isn't going to provide any cutting edge to the IAF.That will come with the Mk2 on which developmental work will proceed at full speed post FOC for Mk1.That would be 2019.Which means , all milestones having been met on time , we can expect FOC to be granted to Mk 2 around 2024-25 .Now , that's making a lot of favourable assumptions .

Which in turn means that around 2024 - 26 , all things proceeding as per plan we shall see the first Mk 2 , Rafale & FGFA ( all under MII) roll out simultaneously.

Up until this point , we are expected to have close to 140 Tejas ( both Mk1 & Mk 1a) , 54 Rafales ( ?) & upto 235 odd MKI ( not counting the full compliment of 275 as 40 will be ear marked the SFC ) .With the information posted just now by @PARIKRAMA on the Dassault Rafale thread , it seems the first compliment of 36 Rafale from Merignac seems destined for the SFC as well (??? Have I understood this right? )

This leaves a huge hole in our nos of fighter aircraft given the retirement of close to 271 MIG 21 & MIG 27.Where are the adequate replacements going to come from ?

While there is a big case to be made for proceeding with further production of the MKI till we hit the 375 - 400 mark , we see no signs of any progress on this front ( current nos stand at approx 240 & HAL is expected to meet its target of manufacturing all the MII ordered compliment by 2019 as per the current order book ) .An increase of 100 MKI will definitely boost the nos although they're meant for a different role .

Which is why I'm not entirely convinced by your claims that we will not be considering the F - 16 or Gripens or even the F-18 ( though the latter has the least chances of making it ) @Abingdonboy & @PARIKRAMA .

The period between 2019-25 is going to see the IAF in a severely depleted form & at its most vulnerable .

This in itself makes for a strong case for a 2 nd LWA .I believe that's the thinking in the MoD & that's why they're re opening the entire case of a Dekko at Gripens & the teens .