Living in a world without the West

[FaujHistorian]

EXACTLY. couldn't have said it better myself.

Though I have to say, Change is coming.

There will come a day when Chinese people realize that making factory wages for a pittance is not the best way to make money.


There will come a day when Americans wake up and find that they no longer have the skills nor the expertise to make the stuff they once made.

There will come a day when Chinese companies realize that all they need is Branding, and that doing OEM work without branding is for suckers.

and that day, my friends, is coming sooner than you think.

Increase in hourly rates for labor is gradual and very normal.

Once the labor rates in China go up, it will be difficult to find that large of a skilled population anywhere. Perhaps Indians will undercut a little bit, but not much.

As a result, imports for Americans will become more expensive.

However this will not be the end.

Here is an example.

Indian call centers were really inexpensive in the beginning, so most of the American companies outsourced their call centers to India and Philippines.

However the trend is slowly reversing because poor states within USA are competitive with Indian call centers and in some cases better if you consider the customer satisfaction.

I respectfully disagree that Americans are losing skills.

they have a large educated population, that can be trained and retrained. Couple this with huge number top universities, innovation and industrial development, and you will see that America will be at the leading edge for a long time to come.

However this is no snub to the hardworking Chinese.

I think they will have the place they deserve among the top nations of the world.

Lesson for Pakistanis. Learn from Chinese. Work like Chinese, and Serve the world like Chinese and Pakistan too will become developed country.



peace.

 

[Rig Vedic]

However the trend is slowly reversing because poor states within USA are competitive with Indian call centers and in some cases better if you consider the customer satisfaction.

Quite.

But the US economic edge is being eroded. And that is normal and expected, since others are going to catch up.

The question is what will happen to the global balance of power, when the US is no more exceptional than Brazil, say.

 

[Developereo]

Americans have put 1+ billion Chines and 1+ billion Indians and countless other millions from Asia (Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Thailand etc.) to work for them.

These 'laborer' countries are using Western financing to build their infrastructure to world class level, often surpassing Western standards. These countries are not deluded into being servile 'laborers' forever; they are bootstrapping themselves out of poverty using Western consumers as leverage.

There is a LONG line of countries who would be more than happy to take over this 'laborer' role.

I am betting that Russians will make a decision to lean towards China with a Eurasian Union

Russia will prefer to form a European Union, with itself at the head, rather than play second fiddle to China in a Eurasian Union.

India, whose leaders compete with Britain to cosy up to Washington

As the laggard, India is the country most likely to backstab fellow risers and cut a deal with the established West.

 

[FaujHistorian]

If an when America takes a bow, the most likely replacement is Germany.

Yes Germans have large, innovative industrial base to lead the world.

Once Germans take their lead role for 100 years or so, then perhaps Asian could get a chance.


peace.

 

[faithfulguy]

This is by far the smartest thread in PDF in a long time. Everyone post intelligent and well thought out statements instead of just trolling.

Its true that US is losing production and market share in the world, that is why US is building up 3 advantages that will keep US on the top for long time to come. The three are military prowess, technology superiority and cultural influences. Another major US advantage that I believe is the most important is geography. US will be fighting battles in areas far away from US territory for a long time to come.

 

[R0H1T]

These 'laborer' countries are using Western financing to build their infrastructure to world class level, often surpassing Western standards. These countries are not deluded into being servile 'laborers' forever; they are bootstrapping themselves out of poverty using Western consumers as leverage.

There is a LONG line of countries who would be more than happy to take over this 'laborer' role.



Russia will prefer to form a European Union, with itself at the head, rather than play second fiddle to China in a Eurasian Union.



As the laggard, India is the country most likely to backstab fellow risers and cut a deal with the established West.

You're talking as if this were an assassination plot ! Every country looks after itself first before thinking about others, take CN for example as their undervalued currency has given them the leverage to be the most viable alternative for cheap(not necessarily bad) goods worldwide & the garment industry in South Asia(not just IND) suffers heavily as a result !

This is by far the smartest thread in PDF in a long time. Everyone post intelligent and well thought out statements instead of just trolling.

Its true that US is losing production and market share in the world, that is why US is building up 3 advantages that will keep US on the top for long time to come. The three are military prowess, technology superiority and cultural influences. Another major US advantage that I believe is the most important is geography. US will be fighting battles in areas far away from US territory for a long time to come.

Not necessarily, I feel going forward towards the later half of this century there won't be many wars & the defence sector in the US will be a major drag on their whole economy. You see the US defence sector sustains itself through the wars that US has fought over the years. But with the decline in worldwide conflicts there only reliable market would be sovereign nations like IND which again are heavily investing in domestic defence oriented industries. Hence their second largest industry(after the tech sector) will bear the brunt of this sea change going forward !

 

[Developereo]

US will be fighting battles in areas far away from US territory for a long time to come.

The more likely scenario is that the US will pare down its direct military involvement and look for 'lieutenants' to manage the local neighborhoods (backed by assurance of US support).

You're talking as if this were an assassination plot ! Every country looks after itself first before thinking about others, take CN for example as their undervalued currency has given them the leverage to be the most viable alternative for cheap(not necessarily bad) goods worldwide & the garment industry in South Asia(not just IND) suffers heavily as a result !

It is no secret that the US is looking for allies to help it undercut the front-runner (China) and India has shown willingness to play that role. Whether India is doing it for its own reasons or not is secondary; the fact is that it is willing to support the US strategy.

 

[R0H1T]

The more likely scenario is that the US will pare down its direct military involvement and look for 'lieutenants' to manage the local neighborhoods (backed by assurance of US support).



It is no secret that the US is looking for allies to help it undercut the front-runner (China) and India has shown willingness to play that role. Whether India is doing it for its own reasons or not is secondary; the fact is that it is willing to support the US strategy.

Um no you're completely off the track here. Just FYI IND will overtake the US as the single largest domestic market for consumption of goods & services by 2050(over ~1.5 billion populace) so the US really doesn't have a say in this otherwise CN would't have been our biggest trading partner ! Again when we look at a 20-40 year horizon IND will be the biggest export market not just for CN but also the rest of the world & if we don't reduce our dependence on imports we will head towards the current US type of consumption driven ecomodel, which btw isn't a bad thing when we consider the US Japan scenario(akin to Sino IND paradigm) however what we don't have is domestic megacorps that both US/Japan have that innovate & bring multi trillion $ profits back home

 

[Developereo]

Um no you're completely off the track here. Just FYI IND will overtake the US as the single largest domestic market for consumption of goods & services by 2050(over ~1.5 billion populace) so the US really doesn't have a say in this otherwise CN would't have been our biggest trading partner ! Again when we look at a 20-40 year horizon IND will be the biggest export market not just for CN but also the rest of the world & if we don't reduce our dependence on imports we will head towards the current US type of consumption driven ecomodel, which btw isn't a bad thing when we consider the US Japan scenario(akin to Sino IND paradigm) however what we don't have is domestic megacorps that both US/Japan have that innovate & bring multi trillion $ profits back home

I am talking about what's happening TODAY, not what may happen 40 years in the future.

The OP posits that there is this alliance of rising nations against the 'West' and I am saying that is not so.

 

[R0H1T]

I am talking about what's happening TODAY, not what may happen 40 years in the future.

The OP posits that there is this alliance of rising nations against the 'West' and I am saying that is not so.

I was replying to your post as the US' strategy to counter the rise of CN by using IND as a tool ! IND has risen independent of any foreign influence & will continue to do so at its own pace & keeping its own interests in mind.

Again this "alliance" against the West is a fallacy as the major developing ecopowers are doing so on the back of their huge population base & when you think about it logically the West will have to fall back to what their place was pre ~1900 period though the per capita income would still be higher then again their living expenses aren't cheap either !

 

[Rig Vedic]

As the laggard, India is the country most likely to backstab fellow risers and cut a deal with the established West.

The Indian policy has been quite open and straightforward - to be independent, and friendly to all those who are not hostile.

I think you missed the subtlety of the original article - it was not about backstabbing and cutting deals and conflict.

It was about the emerging scenario in which the West is no longer the sole pole. The emerging nations will neither be in conflict with the western system, nor will they become a part of it.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

We will be there for a long time, albeit not as dominant as we once were but I don't mind a more equitable world order if that means lifting billions out of poverty. What I'm afraid of is a future where we will be treated like the video India 2030. Fortunately that day might never come if I see how things are (not) working in India.

 

[kalu_miah]

Russia will prefer to form a European Union, with itself at the head, rather than play second fiddle to China in a Eurasian Union.

The Eurasian Union is mainly former Soviet Union, it does not include China. Russian empire will not join EU leaving all its vassal states, unless all of them are acceptable to EU. Russia can be its own boss, if it can convince Iran, Pakistan and Turkey to join Eurasian Union along with Arab nations in West Asia. It sounds like a stretch, but it is something that will be good for all nations in this region, if they can make it work.

EXACTLY. couldn't have said it better myself.

Though I have to say, Change is coming.

There will come a day when Chinese people realize that making factory wages for a pittance is not the best way to make money.


There will come a day when Americans wake up and find that they no longer have the skills nor the expertise to make the stuff they once made.

There will come a day when Chinese companies realize that all they need is Branding, and that doing OEM work without branding is for suckers.

and that day, my friends, is coming sooner than you think.

Its not just branding, its more about R&D in science and technology including weapons technology. This is where the West leads, if anyone wants to surpass them, that is the area to concentrate on, by investing in human resource development.

 

[miss]

BS article.. i remember reading that infosys would be 1-trillion company in 10 year.. ie if the same rate of rise in stock price happened. if this was true, every batsman who made a hundred on debut would be better than bradman.

 

[Developereo]

The Eurasian Union is mainly former Soviet Union, it does not include China. Russian empire will not join EU leaving all its vassal states, unless all of them are acceptable to EU. Russia can be its own boss, if it can convince Iran, Pakistan and Turkey to join Eurasian Union along with Arab nations in West Asia. It sounds like a stretch, but it is something that will be good for all nations in this region, if they can make it work.

Ethnically, culturally and historically the Russians identify far more with the (East) Europeans than with Central Asians. They may form another "marriage of convenience" with some Asian countries, but it wouldn't be any stronger intrinsically than the Soviet Union was.