Limited War Possible: Indian Army Chief Kapoor

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You know that is an eyewash but taking your bait would take us on a tangent to what is being discussed here.

The trial is an eyewash?

Without going into the validity of your claim on the trial, if you do believe that then you undermine your very own argument of 'shivering at icy cold premonitions' since it would appear that Pakistan really doesn't give a hoot about this alleged 'changed dynamic' (it isn't really, as I pointed out and you agreed) based on Kapoor's utterances.

Angling with anemic worms seems to be a favorite pastime in your neck of the woods dost ..... your not catching this fish that way.

Unlike you my friend, our foreign policy and rules of engagement with partners does not start and end with "sops."

Let me know when you can run your country without them.

Oh we can run the country without sops, we did so in the past, its just that the current leadership feels it needs those 'financial sops' to do its job - hence its unpopularity with a large majority of Pakistanis who believe otherwise.

To its credit however, while the current leadership has argued for 'financial sops', it has also focused on and continued negotiations on more comprehensive economic engagements with the West and the East - the negotiations on the BIT's and FTA's with the EU, US and Asian nations etc.

But the point about 'no sops for India' was more a reference to your point about 'changed world dynamics' - what place do 'world dynamics' have in the strategic calculations of a 'sop less India'?

If they do, and you aren't even getting sops, then chuck the 'changed world dynamics' out the window.

Coming to objectives ..... encircling Pakistan through a land bridge with Afghanistan comes to mind ..... the mountainous part of *** you hold would serve no other meaningful strategic advantage today to us than to do that and cut you away from China.

Wouldn't encroach on your holy Lakshmanrekha of Lahore-Karachi axis either.

What say?

Yeah we discussed this particular hypothetical scenario in the Rah-e-Nijat thread. As I pointed out to you there, to gain any sort of military advantage from an Afghanistan so beholden to India (or under its influence) that it would allow its territory to be used against Pakistan, you would need to either have a very strong Afghan military or the ability to project significant Indian military power from Afghan soil, while not undermining your capabilities on Pakistan's Eastern front.

The ANA is as of yet not even completely capable of taking on an insurgent militia by itself, let alone tackle a battle tested and far superior conventional military force. The estimates on raising an ANA that is capable of merely controlling Afghanistan and maintaining security in the country without Western support range up to a decade or so on the high side.

And the ANA will then have its hands full putting together that Afghanistan and making sure it stays together, and they have no vast reserves of oil ala Iraq to go and buy modern fighter jets and tanks and build an offensive modern military.

And then of course there is the vast natural barrier of the Hindukush mountain range that this Afghan Army has to cross, outnumbered and out gunned - it'll be a slaughter much like the one the Taliban have faced.

BTW, to even get to the point of an Afghan Army attempting to cross the Hindukush, you are looking at decades of rebuilding the devastated Afghan state and the Afghan Army, and some as of yet unknown source for funds that would allow the Afghans to spare money to buy some level of offensive military capability.

So lets rule out the Afghan Military playing any role in this 'grand design' of yours.

The other option is to base a large enough number of Indian Army and Air force assets in Afghanistan and use them to accomplish this 'two front war'. To do that you need to run an extremely long and vulnerable supply line through Iran, and look at whether the Iranians would want to be dragged into supporting your war.

The redirection of enough military assets to allow a successful offensive by Indian troops across the Hindukush is something India is as of yet not really capable of. Given the effort expended in just kicking out a few hundred well entrenched 'infiltrators' in Kargil, not completely backed by the Pakistani military, one would have to argue that the possibility of India being successful im crossing the vast swathe of the Hindukush, facing both the Pakistani military and hostile tribes, is extremely remote (to put it kindly).

In all, this 'grand design' based on 'encirclement' remains a fantasy given current realities and near to medium term projections of possible military capabilities of both nations.

And to be fair it does belong to us and was illegally taken away by you to start with, so it would only be righting an earlier wrong.

Only if the UNSC issues new resolutions indicating such, or India implements its commitments to the UNSC resolutions and there is a UN led plebiscite in the region whose result favors India.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Yes it is risky ..... but what Pakistan is doing behind the scenes against India for decades is risky too.

Stop that and there is no risk ..... for either of us.

That is his message.

Heed it.

For your own good ..... and ours.

And if ANY nuclear country felt that by going nuclear it had achieved the Holy Grail, pray tell why would it simply not stockpile nuclear warheads and sit back waiting for hostilities?

Why spend time and money in training and equiping you conventional forces at all? Homeland security?

Cheers, Doc

Pakistan has been doing nothing 'behind the scenes' since the days of the 'back channel diplomacy' started under Musharraf. Infiltration is still close to record lows (read almost non existent) and has been acknowledged by international observers and the Indian military itself.

15,000 troops were pulled out of Kashmir for a reason.

Quite frankly there seems little rhyme or reason for Kapoor's comments, other than chest thumping, to assuage the feelings of insecurity from the yawning abyss in his underpants perhaps.

He shoudl try your 'sock in the underpants' method - might help him relax instead of reiterating old threats he can't really back up.

 

[vsdoc]

Thanks AM for your reply .... I appreciate the effort taken.

You however are looking at things wrongly ..... to an extent. More in monochrome black or white ..... ignoring the various shades of grey in terms of likely possibilities.

#1 I am not even contemplating ANA or a role whatsoever ..... defensive or offensive. At best they would take care of the country from internal strife, and let the IA concentrate on pakistan's western flank.

#2 The long tenuous supply line via Iran is a possibility, and may work in the short term based on shared national interests ..... both within Afghanistan and against Pakistan.

However this would not be a necessity once a land bridge through *** was established. It may well be a cart before the horse type ituation in the end.

The US would no doubt have a role to play too vis-a-vis Iran and its help ..... relaxation of its nuclear stance for one, in what i see as a foregone conclusion of when and not if.

#3 Coming to India having the necessary forces, some will have to be raised, some will be diverted on a fluid basis, bolstered by the fledgling ANA.

Manpower will never be an issue for India, nor training or equipment. What India will need will be money and lead time ..... and here is where the US will come to the party, providing its future Afghan Peacekeeping Force the luxury of both, through a phased withdrawal of its own forces.

#4 The ability or otherwise of the Indian forces of crossing the Hindukush and fighting tooth and nail in mountain warfare against the PA, while debatable with both of us having different views, is not really a pressing issue from the Indian point of view.

Our mere presence on your Western flank is enough to keep you in check.

Through the same reasons you pointed out for the IA ..... money, manpower, redeployment, manning two flanks, etc. etc.

Here is where the US comes in, and the lobbying we will do versus what we offer them versus what you do.

In fact, depending on how things pan out, initially the objective could well be limited to taking and holding the land bridge. There is no hurry, and time gives allies time to put indigenous boots on the ground while we raise an army.

#5 China ..... the Joker in the pack. Though I do not see them taking your side directly in a theater where it would directly butt heads with the US .... not for the next 10-15 years at least.

#6 Israel ..... a fine balancing act vis-a-vis the US and the Iranian angle ..... versus helping to stick it to Pakistan. But should not be a problem, and can only be an asset.

Would appreciate your further inputs.

Cheers, Doc

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

BTW, one thing that should be factored into the equation is the secondary impact of this war against the Taliban in terms of the capacity building of the Frontier Corps.

The FC has been both enlarged in terms of size (upwards of 80,000 are some of the estimates I have heard) and significantly enhanced in terms of training, equipment and compensation.

Gone are the days of the indisciplined FC soldier in chappals, WW II era rifles and no helmet. The FC even has its own Special Forces unit now. Most units are equipped with body armor, newer rifles, armored transportation, and backed up with artillery, tanks and the PAF. The compensation and benefits match those of equivalent ranks in the PA.

The Corp has progressed from a force that routinely got routed by the Taliban to one that can substitute for the Army in providing the ground troops necessary for the various ops.

That is a significant enhancement of capability in terms of threats on Pakistan's Western front.

 

[XYON]

He is not. Please read again.

He is talking about a limited war between two nuclear nations.

Where the hostilities will be limited in area and scope and objective without escalation to a point of no return by pressing either country's sensitive buttons.

What is so implausible about that?

Yes it is risky ..... but what Pakistan is doing behind the scenes against India for decades is risky too.

Stop that and there is no risk ..... for either of us.

That is his message.

Heed it.

For your own good ..... and ours.

And if ANY nuclear country felt that by going nuclear it had achieved the Holy Grail, pray tell why would it simply not stockpile nuclear warheads and sit back waiting for hostilities?

Why spend time and money in training and equiping you conventional forces at all? Homeland security?

Cheers, Doc

Dude, you 'seem' to be sensible fella from your pic until such time you try to desperately rationalize the stupid comment made by your war monger COAS!

There is no such scenario as a 'limited nuke war' where you Indians are trying to be 'extra careful' not to harm the Pakistan populace while trying to 'eliminate' with 'great precision' the military targets using a 22 kiloton air burst nuke?

Like I have said elsewhere; what you think will be limited we will take as an all out act of nuke war and missiles will fly through the length and breadth of your 'shinning (as in nuclear radiation)' India.

Also, the statement of your idiot COAS goes against your touted policy of NO FIRST USE! If you will throw a stone, we will shower you with boulders! So please stop the rationalization and holier-than-thou lecture on military tactics before I really change my opinion about you!

And yes we all know that Manmohan Singha and Gen. Kapoora are having severe nightmares about the Talibans ending up in India and creating havoc for your population and the weakling LEA's (case and point Mumbai Massacre) ! Which is the real reason of such goofy and irresponsible statements. I can assure you though; next stop for the Talibans on the run........New Dehli! Enjoy because talking will not get you anywhere nor attacking Pakistan with a limited nuke war or anything else for that matter for reason mentioned above!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

#1 I am not even contemplating ANA or a role whatsoever ..... defensive or offensive. At best they would take care of the country from internal strife, and let the IA concentrate on pakistan's western flank.

Agreed then that the ANA is largely neutered in terms of playing any offensive role.

#2 The long tenuous supply line via Iran is a possibility, and may work in the short term based on shared national interests ..... both within Afghanistan and against Pakistan.

However this would not be a necessity once a land bridge through *** was established. It may well be a cart before the horse type ituation in the end.

The US would no doubt have a role to play too vis-a-vis Iran and its help ..... relaxation of its nuclear stance for one, in what i see as a foregone conclusion of when and not if.

One third of Iran's population resides in Tehran alone - not sure they would want to take the risk of provoking Pakistan (despite all the bluster they display - but then they do that with the US as well). Then there is the issue of the Saudis being dragged in if the Iranians are seen as becoming ascendant in the region. The Iranians have little to gain by getting involved in an outright confrontation with Pakistan, even over Afghanistan, and in this particular case we are looking at an Afghanistan that is not Taliban controlled, sine it is allowing Indian bases, so what strategic interest of Iran will be served by creating instability through support for an Indian war?

The Iranians will concede on some issues on the nuclear front, but until the leadership changes there, the inherent anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment in the ruling regime will prevent broader engagement with the West, barring a 'revolution' or sudden change in heart.

To obtain a 'land bridge' you have to actually fight and occupy territory that historically neither side has been able to get the other to budge on militarily. To do so before the 'encirclement' idea means it is a single front war for both nations, and barring the freak of 1971 (for obvious reasons) there is little to show that India will be able to do so.

In any case, trying to militarily wrest all of J&K from Pakistan goes beyond 'limited engagement' so I am unsure how this is relevant.

#3 Coming to India having the necessary forces, some will have to be raised, some will be diverted on a fluid basis, bolstered by the fledgling ANA.

Manpower will never be an issue for India, nor training or equipment. What India will need will be money and lead time ..... and here is where the US will come to the party, providing its future Afghan Peacekeeping Force the luxury of both, through a phased withdrawal of its own forces.

Quickly raised poorly trained forces in the Hindukush will meet the fate of the ANA in combat with the Taliban. You don't have enough military resources or trained manpower to do the job currently, nor does it look like you have any plans to put in motion such an increase anytime in the near future.

It is sort of pointless to argue over an engagement for which you need resources that are not even on the drawing board yet. Lets see some movement from India on actually building the capacity to fight a two front war from Afghanistan before arguing over it.

I mean I could argue Pakistan will have developed some 'super weapon to zap Indian soldiers into oblivion from hundreds of miles away' - estimating future capabilities is alright so long as it is within reason.

#4 The ability or otherwise of the Indian forces of crossing the Hindukush and fighting tooth and nail in mountain warfare against the PA, while debatable with both of us having different views, is not really a pressing issue from the Indian point of view.

Our mere presence on your Western flank is enough to keep you in check.

Through the same reasons you pointed out for the IA ..... money, manpower, redeployment, manning two flanks, etc. etc.

The ratio of attackers to defenders in mountain warfare is typically in the favor of defenders (12:1 I believe).

Pakistan will not be trying to cross the Durand and the Hindukush through narrow roads and valleys, India will.

Here is where the US comes in, and the lobbying we will do versus what we offer them versus what you do.

In fact, depending on how things pan out, initially the objective could well be limited to taking and holding the land bridge. There is no hurry, and time gives allies time to put indigenous boots on the ground while we raise an army.

See, here you have gone way beyond 'limited exchange' - you are talking full fledged war, which brings the nuclear card into play. I fail to see what India can offer the US from creating instability in the region and raising the specter of nuclear war that will undermine the global economy and likely send the price of crude sky high.

If anything, India will be causing a colossal loss to the US.

And your naiveté in skipping past the actual fighting, occupying and defeating of Pakistani forces, and moving right to 'taking and holding land bridge and raising indigenous boots on the ground' is just astounding.

I really have no more to discuss with this kind of inane attitude. You feel like India can just walk over and occupy this 'land bridge', fine, let me know when you do it. Maybe then Kapoor won't need a sock in his underwear and can refrain from his bellicosity to keep his flagging spirits up.

 

[DaRk WaVe]

BTW, one thing that should be factored into the equation is the secondary impact of this war against the Taliban in terms of the capacity building of the Frontier Corps.

The FC has been both enlarged in terms of size (upwards of 80,000 are some of the estimates I have heard) and significantly enhanced in terms of training, equipment and compensation.

Gone are the days of the indisciplined FC soldier in chappals, WW II era rifles and no helmet. The FC even has its own Special Forces unit now. Most units are equipped with body armor, newer rifles, armored transportation, and backed up with artillery, tanks and the PAF. The compensation and benefits match those of equivalent ranks in the PA.

The Corp has progressed from a force that routinely got routed by the Taliban to one that can substitute for the Army in providing the ground troops necessary for the various ops.

That is a significant enhancement of capability in terms of threats on Pakistan's Western front.

yup there is a Special Force Unit in FC...

 

[rubyjackass]

Actually, the Cold Start doctrine is entirely an Indian Army creation (not even the IAF or IN were involved in its initial formulation) and the civilians have close to nothing to do with it. There is this tendency to brag about India being a democracy as if Pakistan is some perpetually totalitarian nation where the voice of the populace is entirely irrelevant. But the fact is that the Indian Army (in particular) has just as much a critical role in the formulation of defense policy as does the Pakistan Army. Cold Start would be a good example, as the whole concept was partly conceived as a strategy that would negate the powers of the executive politicians to interfere in the particulars of a military confrontation with Pakistan. Once the plan would be pushed into action, as the tanks will be placed right NEXT to our border, there will be no turning back. The war will have begun and the politicians won't be able to go cold feet like they've done before, or so is the implicit understanding in Indian policy circles. There has hardly been any resistance to this plan from the civilians (and considerable from the Air Force and Navy) which doesn't mean that the civilians are all hand-dandy with it, or that they've voted on it or even understand it, but that in India as well the domain of military strategy - factors like objectives, escalation as you mentioned - is firmly with the army.

Your thoughts are misplaced and not based on facts. I don't blame you for being so desperate to prove that India is as bad as Pakistan, Indian army as vilanous as Pakistan's and I wish you the best with it.
I would like you to support your arguments that the cold start is entirely a creation of the Indian army without the confidence of the IAF and IN.
Also Cold Start is a military doctrine not a defense policy and so does not need any civilian approval and hence the air in your argument:Indian Army as ... as Pakistan's is lost. Indian Army will attack and defend by the orders of the Indian Government and in the regions where it is authorized to operate by the Government. Cold Start is just a code on how the armed forces will take the call from the administration.


It says this: Let the politician give me orders. But when he gives them, I will execute it and it alone, fast and so fast that he will not be and need not be afraid to do what he intended in the beginning.
I see it more like an undertaking by a loyal employee than a statement by a power centre to seek attention.

Compare this with the 'Army reviewing Government's so-and-so decision', 'Army unhappy with so-and-so decision about some x decision' where x does not belong to the domain of military affairs that we often here in Pakistani newspapers.

 

[beckham]

I see Indians start hasving pain when Chinese remind them of the past

better check your waters before boasting about the past.

When Chinese reminds us of past, we returns the favor !

Then we are cool !

www.defence.pk/forums/india-defence/38492-india-has-forgotten-lessons-1962-war-global-times-3.html

How about you guys ? Got anything to remind us other than taking pride in some1 else's victory ??

Sister Jana Haven't I checked my waters b4 boasting about the past ?

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

I would support india invading pakistan to take it nucleaer weapons. Pakistan is such an unstable country at the moment, the taliban could take the nukes and use them.

I would support Iran nuking (Irhabist)Israel and whiping it out from the face of earth....

 

[Moorkh]

Dude, you 'seem' to be sensible fella from your pic until such time you try to desperately rationalize the stupid comment made by your war monger COAS!

There is no such scenario as a 'limited nuke war' where you Indians are trying to be 'extra careful' not to harm the Pakistan populace while trying to 'eliminate' with 'great precision' the military targets using a 22 kiloton air burst nuke?

even gen kapoor is not talking about a limited nuclear war. i agree there is nothing called a limited nuclear war. what he is saying that conventional military operations are possible without escalating to nuclear war.

Like I have said elsewhere; what you think will be limited we will take as an all out act of nuke war and missiles will fly through the length and breadth of your 'shinning (as in nuclear radiation)' India.

Also, the statement of your idiot COAS goes against your touted policy of NO FIRST USE! If you will throw a stone, we will shower you with boulders! So please stop the rationalization and holier-than-thou lecture on military tactics before I really change my opinion about you!

same response as above

And yes we all know that Manmohan Singha and Gen. Kapoora are having severe nightmares about the Talibans ending up in India and creating havoc for your population and the weakling LEA's (case and point Mumbai Massacre) ! Which is the real reason of such goofy and irresponsible statements. I can assure you though; next stop for the Talibans on the run........New Dehli! Enjoy because talking will not get you anywhere nor attacking Pakistan with a limited nuke war or anything else for that matter for reason mentioned above!

cant say much on this. TTP is closer to islamabad and fighting PA right now. their backs are towards afganistan not india so they will run there. i can not imagine them eyeing india unless they have politically taken over the GoP.

the general's statements are directed to pop the bubble of living happily under a nuclear umbrella that seems to be present among many.

kargil is not exactly analogous as at the time neither country had very credible nuclear arsenals or delivery systems.

 

[r4rehan]

i just wana say one thing WELCOME PAPPO JANI :-* (KAPOOR) ..............
AAoooo Zara Darya main PANI ki Gherai ka maza pata chal jai ga yaar we are Ready for Die ,,, r u REady ?? we'll be wid our forces u'll face 170000000/- Men Army.......................

<(_|_)| AKBAR

 

[praveen]

Quick,bold,fast,and decisive the essence of coldstart.Fighting under the threshold of a nuclear scenario and trying to reach the logical conclusions,thats it

 

[naseebkhanniazi]

can you imagine about nuke war

 

[praveen]

can you imagine about nuke war

Cold start doesn't give time for you to assemble a nuke