AgNoStiC MuSliM
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The trial is an eyewash?You know that is an eyewash but taking your bait would take us on a tangent to what is being discussed here.
Without going into the validity of your claim on the trial, if you do believe that then you undermine your very own argument of 'shivering at icy cold premonitions' since it would appear that Pakistan really doesn't give a hoot about this alleged 'changed dynamic' (it isn't really, as I pointed out and you agreed) based on Kapoor's utterances.
Angling with anemic worms seems to be a favorite pastime in your neck of the woods dost ..... your not catching this fish that way.
Unlike you my friend, our foreign policy and rules of engagement with partners does not start and end with "sops."
Let me know when you can run your country without them.
Oh we can run the country without sops, we did so in the past, its just that the current leadership feels it needs those 'financial sops' to do its job - hence its unpopularity with a large majority of Pakistanis who believe otherwise.
To its credit however, while the current leadership has argued for 'financial sops', it has also focused on and continued negotiations on more comprehensive economic engagements with the West and the East - the negotiations on the BIT's and FTA's with the EU, US and Asian nations etc.
But the point about 'no sops for India' was more a reference to your point about 'changed world dynamics' - what place do 'world dynamics' have in the strategic calculations of a 'sop less India'?
If they do, and you aren't even getting sops, then chuck the 'changed world dynamics' out the window.
Yeah we discussed this particular hypothetical scenario in the Rah-e-Nijat thread. As I pointed out to you there, to gain any sort of military advantage from an Afghanistan so beholden to India (or under its influence) that it would allow its territory to be used against Pakistan, you would need to either have a very strong Afghan military or the ability to project significant Indian military power from Afghan soil, while not undermining your capabilities on Pakistan's Eastern front.Coming to objectives ..... encircling Pakistan through a land bridge with Afghanistan comes to mind ..... the mountainous part of *** you hold would serve no other meaningful strategic advantage today to us than to do that and cut you away from China.
Wouldn't encroach on your holy Lakshmanrekha of Lahore-Karachi axis either.
What say?
The ANA is as of yet not even completely capable of taking on an insurgent militia by itself, let alone tackle a battle tested and far superior conventional military force. The estimates on raising an ANA that is capable of merely controlling Afghanistan and maintaining security in the country without Western support range up to a decade or so on the high side.
And the ANA will then have its hands full putting together that Afghanistan and making sure it stays together, and they have no vast reserves of oil ala Iraq to go and buy modern fighter jets and tanks and build an offensive modern military.
And then of course there is the vast natural barrier of the Hindukush mountain range that this Afghan Army has to cross, outnumbered and out gunned - it'll be a slaughter much like the one the Taliban have faced.
BTW, to even get to the point of an Afghan Army attempting to cross the Hindukush, you are looking at decades of rebuilding the devastated Afghan state and the Afghan Army, and some as of yet unknown source for funds that would allow the Afghans to spare money to buy some level of offensive military capability.
So lets rule out the Afghan Military playing any role in this 'grand design' of yours.
The other option is to base a large enough number of Indian Army and Air force assets in Afghanistan and use them to accomplish this 'two front war'. To do that you need to run an extremely long and vulnerable supply line through Iran, and look at whether the Iranians would want to be dragged into supporting your war.
The redirection of enough military assets to allow a successful offensive by Indian troops across the Hindukush is something India is as of yet not really capable of. Given the effort expended in just kicking out a few hundred well entrenched 'infiltrators' in Kargil, not completely backed by the Pakistani military, one would have to argue that the possibility of India being successful im crossing the vast swathe of the Hindukush, facing both the Pakistani military and hostile tribes, is extremely remote (to put it kindly).
In all, this 'grand design' based on 'encirclement' remains a fantasy given current realities and near to medium term projections of possible military capabilities of both nations.
Only if the UNSC issues new resolutions indicating such, or India implements its commitments to the UNSC resolutions and there is a UN led plebiscite in the region whose result favors India.And to be fair it does belong to us and was illegally taken away by you to start with, so it would only be righting an earlier wrong.