Killing India’s hidden ‘Cold Start’ strategy

[gubbi]

As per me all this denial is to out the pressure back on our Pakistani counterparts who have been denying US pressure using CSD as an excuse....what do you think????

Two points come to mind.

1. With talking about CSD, Indian authorities are putting pressure on Pakistani authorities to man their eastern borders which surprisingly helps decrease infiltration bids by terrorists substantially!

2. With denying CSD, Indian authorities are indirectly helping PA, by taking their mind off a 'supposed' Indian assault in the east and moving their forces to the west where they are much needed!

This dillydallying helps keep PA on their toes to help decrease infiltration bids in the east with 'minimum' PA forces, while letting US pressurize Pakistan to move its troops to west to beat talibunnies!

Win-win for India.

 

[Mirza Jatt]

Our mentality is clear. We do not want war with anyone. However, if India does not stop its kartoot then no body will be able to save India. Yeh we know we will be doomed too.

fisrt of all keep your fanboyish attitude with yourself. am just not in mood.

and sir do shed some light on India's kartoots that you are talking about,that can prove so dangerous for India's future.

 

[Xeric]

Seems nice piece of literature, so I am thanking your post, makes somewhat sense. But...........

1). Your presumption that such an operation will fail is backed by "notion". Past military engagements show nothing of what the Indian military may "try" to do in the future.

2). Cold start, gone wrong or gone right for India, will ultimately go wrong for the whole region if Pakistan decides to use tactical nukes on Indian IBG's (assuming they manage to penetrate Pakistani territory). Such an attack on Indian soldiers (even if on Pakistani soil) will revoke Indian no-first-use policy and such a move will invite Indian retaliation. So nightmares about MAD may come true here if situation goes out of control.

Here, we are assuming that Pakistan decides to take the extreme step of using tactical nukes on our soldiers on your territory. Again a "notion".

US/NATO will come into the picture here.

3). Cold start is not meant to paralyze and crush your forces. Its meant to keep some sections of your strike corps pre-occupied and also to provide some cover time for the Indian strike corps to get into its place. As you know, Indian strike corps will take more time to get the logistics in place.

4). As you say India is capable of unveiling CSD but will have go leaps and bounds, so theoretically speaking India can pull this off.

5). CSD is India's military doctrine but is now not recognized at the government level to fend off US pressure and to deny Pakistan an opportunity not to send forces from its eastern border to its western border.

And lastly, your insistence that India roll back this policy in front of the whole world is baffling and actually can be seen as a excuse for your country to not remove any more troops from the Indian border and engage them in WOT.

Agreed!

A few concerns though; First, 'the operation like this fail is a notion,' well your CSD and Limited War wishful thinking is in sympathy which each other so you cant be really sure that the indian military would not try the CSD next time. But then who knows what 'magic' would india unveil next time it goes to war with Pakistan, but then isnt it the CSD that we are discussing here?

As for the failure of such an operation thing that you mentioned, well no one can be sure about it, can you be? Can you assure everyone that Pakistan wouldnt use nukes the instance the hostilities are broken? i dont know whether this can be or should be done. i dont know even if we should be preparing for a contingency against CSD, i dont know if we actually are preparing for such a thing, neither do i know if we are not preparing for such a thing, even if i knew i would not be discussing it here. So let's leave this job to those who do it best - the int guys. Or you can believe in the links provided by Gubbi and accept what the media tells you. But what if Pakistan use the Nukes, would your CSD goes up in flames? But then let's talk tangibles, is the requirement like air superiority etc and a few others can be met by you at present? Can the mighty CSD be actually applied on ground at present or in future when you meet the requirements? i dont know and if if i know i wont be telling you.

So i dont know what india would do next during war, do you? Moreover, neither would you and i know how Pakistan would respond to it. Things could have been much easier if these secrets could reach the media for us to discuss, wouldnt it? But if that had been the case your and our countries shouldt be required to pay generals


Second, as per your statement and also the article Pakistan might use Nukes against the IBGs, again you consider this as a notion. So the only thing i can pray for is that God this really should be a notion or else we wouldnt have PDF to argue on. Seriously, can you people guarantee the world that Pakistan wouldnt Nuke them? i bet if that had been the case there wouldnt be any discussion left to be done over this topic.


And as for the remaining, well there may be certain things which i might be knowing by the virtue of my placement, but you dont want me to discuss that here.

So this brings us to one thing, if you people want us to go inside N.Waziristan and not use the CSD as the pretext, you either had to convince the world (read US) or take some 'actual' steps and force us to revoke using CSD as an 'excuse', now would you do that is the question of the day.

 

[SQ8]

Two points come to mind.

1. With talking about CSD, Indian authorities are putting pressure on Pakistani authorities to man their eastern borders which surprisingly helps decrease infiltration bids by terrorists substantially!

2. With denying CSD, Indian authorities are indirectly helping PA, by taking their mind off a 'supposed' Indian assault in the east and moving their forces to the west where they are much needed!

This dillydallying helps keep PA on their toes to help decrease infiltration bids in the east with 'minimum' PA forces, while letting US pressurize Pakistan to move its troops to west to beat talibunnies!

Win-win for India.

Actually.. it was going this way till 2008 or so.. till a certain meeting involving our top leadership.. and a clear briefing about ground realities was given to our civilian leadership by both the military..and the senior establishment.
Right now.. the approach is changing.. thanks in part to the TTP themselves..whose antics have now started alienating them from the masses in FATA and KP... in parallel.. the level of operational troops will be increased(eating up from the reserves).. So in other words.. the level of troops that meet any misadventure(pardon the pun) from India.. will remain the same.

As for the pressure shift to eastern borders(north waziristan).. troop levels,readiness.. were never a part of that equation..

Op Parakaram was a plain move by the Indian Hawks to punish Pakistan.. there was no "terrorist" target in mind.. just plain all out war.
The terrorists were an excuse to say the least.
Now when it comes to infiltration into Kashmir.. ill be the first to say it was a prime policy before 2008..not anymore..although the assets are kept in reserve.. the simple problem of where to put an unused trained militant is starting to come bite us..
Also..the desire of our intelligence outfits was always to create a self sustaining agitation movement in Kashmir..and that has happened now..dont want to sound cold but it is actually more effective than the occasional dead IA jawan or officer.

 

[Xeric]

Yeah! Well put! This is easily one of the best strategies we have come up with. Just the mere mention of it drives the Pakistanis into a tizzy. What more could we ask of a doctrine which may or may not exist, which may or may not have an occasion to be used?

Quote from Sun Tzu(The Art of War)

"So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself"

Pakistan fits well into the last category.

That's the dumbest post ever!

And BTW before i go any further why, would you care to enlighten us all that how the CSD 'has driven Pakistanis into a tizzy'?

i never knew keeping forces uncommitted from the West fall into getting 'tizzy' per se?

i know, i know what you gonna say. You would refer to the 'concerns' raised by Pakistan with the West over the CSD, well if india can go shytty even over American aid to Pakistan because of the WOT, Pakistan can atleast fart some concerns out! Or may be you want us to sit and watch as you play baniya, right?

 

[silent hawk]

I am amazed at the effort being wasted on this thread purely for egoistic purposes.

The cold start is dead or it never existed , in both cases there is no need to kill it.

The army does not consider cold start to be a threat and there are other reasons why army is not going into north waziristan.

At present the buzz word in army is India's likely pro-active approach. This theory says that after being reactive for more than sixty years (it is always Pakistan who is the aggressor), India may finally decide to initiate an incursion. I have said it before and I will say it again

Indian cold start is a dead issue

 

[SQ8]

I am amazed at the effort being wasted on this thread purely for egoistic purposes.

The cold start is dead or it never existed , in both cases there is no need to kill it.

The army does not consider cold start to be a threat and there are other reasons why army is not going into north waziristan.

At present the buzz word in army is India's likely pro-active approach. This theory says that after being reactive for more than sixty years (it is always Pakistan who is the aggressor), India may finally decide to initiate an incursion. I have said it before and I will say it again

Indian cold start is a dead issue

Not bad bonito..
All proactive approaches need a motivational starter..
Question is.. what will India use as the reason to attack us?.
Another bombing...Ajmal kasabs....We'll know later in this decade..

 

[Contrarian]

Op Parakaram was a plain move by the Indian Hawks to punish Pakistan.. there was no "terrorist" target in mind.. just plain all out war.
The terrorists were an excuse to say the least.

So you dont consider the attacking of the Indian parliament a provocation at all? Its just something India should grin and bear?

Now when it comes to infiltration into Kashmir.. ill be the first to say it was a prime policy before 2008..not anymore..although the assets are kept in reserve.. the simple problem of where to put an unused trained militant is starting to come bite us..

Unfortunately your own countrymen keep denying that it was ever a policy or at the very max, they say it was till 2001.

Also..the desire of our intelligence outfits was always to create a self sustaining agitation movement in Kashmir..and that has happened now..dont want to sound cold but it is actually more effective than the occasional dead IA jawan or officer.

Well, there's no point talking about Kashmir. I would put money on status quo regardless of how many agitations or dead Kashmiri's.

 

[Xeric]

U tested N bomb within few days of India's Test. How come so soon when U werent intending already? So soon U could develop a credible Nuke? Amazing

Are you stuoid or what?

Do you think Pakistan was unaware of india playing around with Uranium?

Amy be you forgot that you had already exploded a bomb back in the 70s, wouldnt it enough a reason for Pakistan trying to build a bomb for itself?

Even if we had to 'borrow' the bomb from somebody it couldnt have been done 'within days' after your tests.

Now you would probably ask, hey how did you tested Babur just after you played around with ABM defence?

Boy, you should have known that you are being watched! And i am sure you are doing to same to us, so what's the fuss about? Idiocity, perhaps?

 

[Xeric]

with whom India signed no first use treaty ? with Pakistan or with china ?

these are self proclaimed policy's made by India & india can change then on its own conditions.

And do you think we are surprised if you do?

We all know that you people master in hypocrisy. Take eating your CSD back for instance.

 

[Contrarian]

Seems hurt ego's are more at work than any nervousness...
If Azm-e-Nau taught Pakistani forces anything.. they realized that it took only a meager investment in a certain SA multiplier to put all the cold start to cold turkey.
The whole idea of cold start involves constant readiness for a corps sized force.
Think that 2001-2 standoff.. if I remember correctly.. didn't some IA troop suicides start during that??..but wait.. IA just raised a battalion of prostitutes recently for Kashmir.. that could work for cold start forces as well.
Maybe we should start calling this cold suicide...some IA officers are going to lose their wives to this..after all.. all that time away from home can get your sweetheart very very lonely.

I had quite a lot of respect for you before i read this post of yours! I thought you were an intelligent poster.
Alas, did not realize you were one of the trolls in disguise.

Sure, Cold start/suicide, cold turkey, whatever. What matters in the end is the increasing amounts and quality of equipment we procure or make, and whether Pakistan can match it. Its hard now, imagine 10 years from now.

 

[SQ8]

I had quite a lot of respect for you before i read this post of yours! I thought you were an intelligent poster.
Alas, did not realize you were one of the trolls in disguise.

Sure, Cold start/suicide, cold turkey, whatever. What matters in the end is the increasing amounts and quality of equipment we procure or make, and whether Pakistan can match it. Its hard now, imagine 10 years from now.

No Im a recent convert.. your countrymen were the ones to "baptize" me into the world of trolls.

 

[deckingraj]

First of all thanks for lowering the testosterone around here.

You are welcome

What i think is that the CSD is hurting no one but at the same time hurting all of us, including you.

I agree but partially....CSD is not hurting us at the moment. There is potential it can hurt us if we go ahead and apply it but then that choice lies with us, no????

CSD is just a strategy but if you read my post #82 you would be clear on my understanding of the situation. The CSD whether applicable or not may prove disaster. And then statements like 'Two Front War' from you people makes the matters worst. i must say you people do a terrible job when it comes to show someone something and also when it comes to hide something from someone.

I agree with you....but then who knows if this was intentional to let the genie out of the bottle...

Lolz..not so fast.

Coming over a mike and saying few words is surely eating back your words but it cant be termed as a measure where one could be satisfied that nothing like CSD exists. You people also need to toned down your emotions. Two-Front-War, Limited-Offensive, man WTF is this BS.

You either play fair or you play dirty, hypocrisy has no place here.

Sir we are talking about CSD here...There was never an official confirmation of it. The only official statement on it is denial of such a policy. Since this has been used as an excuse in the past(as said by you) it is going to be difficult to use it further. This is pure diplomacy and not hypocrisy...

As far as toning down a bit is then i would request you to not believe in sensational media. Every time a two front war or limited offensive has been talked about it is in reference to defense of the nation during an all out attack on us or a terror strike. So nothing wrong in them as such....

You exercised the stuff man, what else do you want to do? Practice it real time against Pakistan?

What i want is peace...Anyways it doesn't matter what i want...There are enough hawks on both sides to keep the table hot....

Agreed. india is capable of sustaining US pressure and it has shown such in the past, but then the likes of Hoolbroke taking it up with you people and you trying portraying yourselves as angles (read defensive), well that's known as bending to pressure.

Pressure would be if you see a change in ground. Toning it down mean you are being sensitive about other. As said before there was never an official acknoledgement of such a doctorine, so what we did diplomatically make sense, no????

May be the timings were not correct - the US taking it up with you and you then blaming it over the thinktanks, but it did work in terms of accepting the US pressure. You can feel free to disagree.

Actually i believe the timing was perfect. The way US banned assets of LET, HUD etc just beofre president visit. It is called efforts to sweeten up the process for big tickets items....

i didnt get you? Arent these two the same things?

May be you missed a 'not' between 'is a' and 'genuine concern', if that be the case, please go through post #82, it would clear up certain things.

Don't bother. I get the message....

When i look through the indian lense, here's what i see.You spelled out CSD. You exercised it and told us that it is workable. You did the IBG thing.
You then brought in the Two Front War. You did sonay pe suhaga by spelling out an absurd thing like 'Limited War'You made us going 'paranoid' over the stuff.Then came the turning point and the US knocked at your door.And then you took your words back, but you didnt do anything credible enough to take us out from our so called 'paranoia'.And we still are not going in N Waziristan and probably wont till the time we and the world in general is satisfied. Savvy?

Sir let us be honest here. No matter what India do Pakistan's paranoia will not change. Please understand we are happy with the status quo and you are not. So unless and until we are not provoked(by the likes of mumbai) we have no reasons to attack or bully Pakistan....All we are doing is preparing ourself as per the new realities which is there is no chance for a full-fledge war b/w India and Pakistan. kargil is a big proof for that.....we are just working to ensure we have the capacity and capability to punish Pak if political establishment want's to. We are working for that goal. Are we going to suceed or not, only time will tell....However if one goes by the acquisitions that we have over the time and what we are going to have in coming decade, there is ample evidence that we are moving towards that goal....

 

[silent hawk]

I had quite a lot of respect for you before i read this post of yours! I thought you were an intelligent poster.
Alas, did not realize you were one of the trolls in disguise.

Sure, Cold start/suicide, cold turkey, whatever. What matters in the end is the increasing amounts and quality of equipment we procure or make, and whether Pakistan can match it. Its hard now, imagine 10 years from now.

That is the problem with respect takes a long time to build takes one post to loose.

Are you not being too harsh genral malaymishra

 

[Pagla Dashu]

And who is it hurting?

Arent we using the so called 'paranio' over Cold Start to face the US and refuse their demands like going in N.Waziristan? Now if you call that psyops, may God bless india!

Nah. It doesn't matter to India, one way or other, whether you accept or refuse US demands of going into N.Waziristan.

However, what is working for you is not cold start doctrine, but the threat of talibankruptcy.

But then i wonder, why would india try taking this Cold Start back to the same very hole it came out from? May be too much US pressure? May be it's not just causing Pakistan to go 'paranoid' but instead Pakistan is showing a genuine concern to which US sympathizes and india has to lick its own spit every now an then?

I am not sure if breadcrumbs off the table qualifies as 'genuine concern'. Btw, as far as licking spit goes, no country comes close to Pakistan's talent.

If that's how things work at your side, really God MUST bless india!

In that case, 'god' is indeed blessing India. A lot.