JF17 BLK4-----Major Upgrade & Replacement For F16's

[Khafee]

Why is that? The PAF has around 200 older fighters to replace....so there is demand for that. Then, she'll need strike, electronic warfare and ground support variants. The JFT is a multi-role platform but you can still focus on creating certain squadrons doing specific tasks.....that way, you have more specialized skills and also, modified JFT variants, thus creating larger numbers and economies of scale.

And no other aircraft in history will ever match economies of scale created by the F-16. THe Japanese issues were different. They simply didn't want to produce F-2 in larger numbers and would rather use the US defense umbrella.

Pakistan on the other hand, doesn't have the luxury the Japanese have, whether its the US defending Japan, or the economy and availability of easy few billions of $$. Pakistan's JFT program is really a lifeline due to various reasons, including the JFT's lower cost. So it would workout for Pakistan due to fewer options. Someone once said in Russian, that "need is the mother of invention"....JFT is that invention born out of serious need....

Well as long as the F-16D is flying, that's good. BUT a domestic dedicated Growler type aircraft should be Top Priority.

 

[SQ8]

F-16XL was never produced in large numbers so the economy of scale doesn't matter.


China/Pakistan can always increase the number of JF-17 they produce. JF-17 blk/3 and blk/4 should garner some attention in the 2nd and 3rd world.


I can see 300 JF-17 being build in the next 15 years

300 is nothing to justify the investment in both cost and time that goes into an airframe change.

They simply didn't want to produce F-2 in larger numbers and would rather use the US defense umbrella...

I am at a loss how economies of scale are pertinent to the issues faced by the F-2 which was essentially the Agile Falcon concept realized? Sure, 500 F-2s would have ironed the issues out but that was never the program intention. Hence it only serves to reinforce the idea that the JF-17 is good as it is in its size.I have to see a strong argument to change my mind, and neither has the current director of operations for the JF-17.

Well as long as the F-16D is flying, that's good. BUT a domestic dedicated Growler type aircraft should be Top Priority.

A growler type aircraft would be great if one could afford it in the face of paucity the best one can hope for is rigorous SEAD/DEAD training which comes via the EW training range we have.

The Turkish budget is much more expansive than ours but they have no adopted a EW fighter aircraft and instead, like the Israelis.. rely on sophisticated automated jamming systems that can go onto existing airframes. A similar approach is being taken by us.

 

[Viper0011.]

300 is nothing to justify the investment in both cost and time that goes into an airframe change.

I am at a loss how economies of scale are pertinent to the issues faced by the F-2 which was essentially the Agile Falcon concept realized? Sure, 500 F-2s would have ironed the issues out but that was never the program intention. Hence it only serves to reinforce the idea that the JF-17 is good as it is in its size.I have to see a strong argument to change my mind, and neither has the current director of operations for the JF-17.

I disagree with you. 300 is a LOT of planes to justify the cost, as long as the jet fits into any country's military doctrine and is needed. -22 was produced with only 187 air-frames. It was never let to a point where economies of scale could kick in. Always remember, a nation's defense isn't building a TV or GPS devices that "economies of scale" must meet for ordinary consumers to bring the price down. In national defense for any nation, often you'll see that smaller countries spend too much and have to do cuts elsewhere in their budget so their national security isn't compromised (the way their strategy is created around it).

So I maintain my opinion, the JFT will go through an air-frame change if its required. The economies of scale concept was more practical when there was virtually no economy and sanctions were slapped on, back in 1999. Today's Pakistan, in terms of economic strength, is much different and can actually put some cash in, if need be. If the massive operation to get rid of terrorists in FATA wasn't costing so much, you'd have seen some changes to the JFT program already as that money was available. But it still doesn't mean you won't see air-frame changes in the next 2-3 years. In fact, I am willing to put my money on air-frame changes in the next 2-3 years.

Having read many things and spoken to a few people, Pakistan wants the JFT to be 90% of the -16 block 52. That sure as hell won't happen with the current air-frame. The current jet was a great experience to built a nice 4th gen light jet, to replace much older J-7 and Mirages. But now to compete with the -16, the bar is much higher for that and the JFT has to go through a redesign in the next 2-3 years. Just watch how it plays out.

 

[tarrar]

I am sure PAF is well aware of the future sanctions from US & this will effect F16's as we wont be able to buy spare parts as a result the fleet will be grounded, but up to some extent. My source told me that when sanctions were on from US, PAF Engg. team were able to fix a F16 engine & fix it back which had seriously pissed US off, well whatever happened this is the reason why I am against PAF buying F16's.

Pakistan must keep on advancing JF17, which they are already doing & buy J31 once China inducts them in PLAAF, also there is a small hope of buying SU35, which PAF should if there is any chance.

 

[SQ8]

I disagree with you. 300 is a LOT of planes to justify the cost, as long as the jet fits into any country's military doctrine and is needed. -22 was produced with only 187 air-frames. It was never let to a point where economies of scale could kick in. Always remember, a nation's defense isn't building a TV or GPS devices that "economies of scale" must meet for ordinary consumers to bring the price down. In national defense for any nation, often you'll see that smaller countries spend too much and have to do cuts elsewhere in their budget so their national security isn't compromised (the way their strategy is created around it).

So I maintain my opinion, the JFT will go through an air-frame change if its required. The economies of scale concept was more practical when there was virtually no economy and sanctions were slapped on, back in 1999. Today's Pakistan, in terms of economic strength, is much different and can actually put some cash in, if need be. If the massive operation to get rid of terrorists in FATA wasn't costing so much, you'd have seen some changes to the JFT program already as that money was available. But it still doesn't mean you won't see air-frame changes in the next 2-3 years. In fact, I am willing to put my money on air-frame changes in the next 2-3 years.

Having read many things and spoken to a few people, Pakistan wants the JFT to be 90% of the -16 block 52. That sure as hell won't happen with the current air-frame. The current jet was a great experience to built a nice 4th gen light jet, to replace much older J-7 and Mirages. But now to compete with the -16, the bar is much higher for that and the JFT has to go through a redesign in the next 2-3 years. Just watch how it plays out.

The -22 was not produced with 187 planes in mind. It was to be produced first above a 1000, then 800, then 300+..and then finally 187. The result is that it is one of the most expensive programs ever produced and costs higher to fly than any comparable program; that is saying without the added extras of LO maintenance.

I am not sure where you get your budgetary ideas on the PAF but the FATA ops have very little to do with what is happening. The damage to the funds began when they were diverted during the earthquake reconstruction which cost a lot more in corruption than actual disaster relief and rehabilitation. Next came a plethora of corrupt staff officers who spent millions on upgrading officer privileges and facilities instead of procuring equipment.
Even then, pre-2008 the budget was still laid out despite the world economy crashing if it was not for Asif Zardari. He did more damage to the economy and budget than terrorism could not do in twenty years. The FC-10 20 and other programs screeched to a halt as the PAF struggled to keep its flying hours up and the JF-17 program alive. What was to be a joint investment turned out to be an entire national program on loan from the Chinese down to the pays of the peons. That entire era was perhaps the most corrupt in the history of Pakistani armed forces that even Zia ul Haq and his shenanigans with his pals overseas would pale in comparison.

Every piece of equipment that has been bought from China is on loan, The Erieye's are on loan, the Midas's are on loan, the Spada is on loan, the ZDK is on loan. The only cash available was quickly doled out in part payments for the F-16 since no foreign lender would finance it and lockmart would not accept a Chinese Bank's assurance. Between 2008 and 2012 , the PAF did not even have money to pay the PREMIUM on these loans let alone the principal amount payments.

Nawaz Sharif has only slightly improved the situation and that too because Raheel Sharif still retains some of his concience as comapred to his predeccsor. Yet the PAF will still seek any future assets on a mix of loan a token down payment which is not going to be enough to finance both more JF-17s (which have NO requirement in the current Air Staff requirement beyond 150) and a replacement asset for the older Mirages.

So, just as you having read many things so have I.. and instead of speaking to many only spoken to the right ones..and can confidently disagree with you knowing what I know.

 

[Viper0011.]

200 that can take JF-17 in its standard aircraft configuration. No need for the needless.

At maximum, the PAF is prepared to push its combat inventory to 500 aircraft.. and wants a minimum of 300.

I think you are grossly underestimating your actual need. KSA is about to do a push for you guys to some ME countries with respect to buying the JFT. I'd expect 100-150 JFT's sold in the next 5-7 years or so. SO your cost further decreases to produce the current variant.

Now that you'd have customers (including the PAF), what do you think they'd want? Upgrades with AESA and all. So this really is a journey, not a small sprint. So eventually another variant of the JFT will be created. Like I said, economies of scale means jack in this case....

Also, the PAF is keeping 500 jets for now. Starting 2019-2020, more $$ will be available due to a rise in the economy and comes with more money, is the need to power project. So no matter how you look at it, your neighbor is fielding SU-30's, Rafale, Mirage-2K9 (upgraded standard), and probably -16 or -18 IN versions. And looking at this serious inventory, you think they'd want to stick to the gold old JFT with "economies of scale" in mind?

The -22 was not produced with 187 planes in mind. It was to be produced first above a 1000, then 800, then 300+..and then finally 187. The result is that it is one of the most expensive programs ever produced and costs higher to fly than any comparable program; that is saying without the added extras of LO maintenance.

Nawaz Sharif has only slightly improved the situation and that too because Raheel Sharif still retains some of his concience as comapred to his predeccsor. Yet the PAF will still seek any future assets on a mix of loan a token down payment which is not going to be enough to finance both more JF-17s (which have NO requirement in the current Air Staff requirement beyond 150) and a replacement asset for the older Mirages.

So, just as you having read many things so have I.. and instead of speaking to many only spoken to the right ones..and can confidently disagree with you knowing what I know.

You started out with a great notion from the -22, but you ended your post with typical B.S about the Pakistan Army. RS is a great guy, but the guy can only run budjet for his house hold. If your military generals were this effing smart, Pakistan would've become South Korea (economy wise) like 40 years ago. So PLEASE, don't bring a military general into the topic, with 0 education or training on how to grow a country's economy!! These are things the civilians do and they are doing them with a pretty darn clear strategy that's already working. The US investors are excited about Pakistan and here you guys are, ignoring the work done by civilians, and always including military generals into useless credits. Posts like these, destabilize Pakistani military's image as someone will call it out and it doesn't look nice. A soldier protects the country, he doesn't have any idea on how to create a business growth strategy. That's civilians forte.

On loans, yes, there are loans because the entire nation, didn't care to pay taxes for over 60 years!!!! So when nations steal from the government and don't pay taxes, what alternative are you left with outside of taking loans? There is none.
But things are moving in the right direction and the loans can be paid off as the economy and the tax net grows.

I am sure PAF is well aware of the future sanctions from US & this will effect F16's as we wont be able to buy spare parts as a result the fleet will be grounded, but up to some extent. .

The US has never put sanctions on a democratic country (unless someone did nuke tests, etc). So Pakistan doesn't need to worry too much. Also, the PAF now keeps at-least 5 years of spares on them, just so if there are ever sanctions, the -16 fleet can fly for 6-8 years without issues. That's a lot of time to induct another platform, etc.

 

[SQ8]

I think you are grossly underestimating your actual need. KSA is about to do a push for you guys to some ME countries with respect to buying the JFT. I'd expect 100-150 JFT's sold in the next 5-7 years or so. SO your cost further decreases to produce the current variant.

Now that you'd have customers (including the PAF), what do you think they'd want? Upgrades with AESA and all. So this really is a journey, not a small sprint. So eventually another variant of the JFT will be created. Like I said, economies of scale means jack in this case....

Also, the PAF is keeping 500 jets for now. Starting 2019-2020, more $$ will be available due to a rise in the economy and comes with more money, is the need to power project. So no matter how you look at it, your neighbor is fielding SU-30's, Rafale, Mirage-2K9 (upgraded standard), and probably -16 or -18 IN versions. And looking at this serious inventory, you think they'd want to stick to the gold old JFT with "economies of scale" in mind?



You started out with a great notion from the -22, but you ended your post with typical B.S about the Pakistan Army. RS is a great guy, but the guy can only run budjet for his house hold. If your military generals were this effing smart, Pakistan would've become South Korea (economy wise) like 40 years ago. So PLEASE, don't bring a military general into the topic, with 0 education or training on how to grow a country's economy!! These are things the civilians do and they are doing them with a pretty darn clear strategy that's already working. The US investors are excited about Pakistan and here you guys are, ignoring the work done by civilians, and always including military generals into useless credits. Posts like these, destabilize Pakistani military's image as someone will call it out and it doesn't look nice. A soldier protects the country, he doesn't have any idea on how to create a business growth strategy. That's civilians forte.

On loans, yes, there are loans because the entire nation, didn't care to pay taxes for over 60 years!!!! So when nations steal from the government and don't pay taxes, what alternative are you left with outside of taking loans? There is none.
But things are moving in the right direction and the loans can be paid off as the economy and the tax net grows.



The US has never put sanctions on a democratic country (unless someone did nuke tests, etc). So Pakistan doesn't need to worry too much. Also, the PAF now keeps at-least 5 years of spares on them, just so if there are ever sanctions, the -16 fleet can fly for 6-8 years without issues. That's a lot of time to induct another platform, etc.

Lets start from the top. the effect of economic improvement isnt directly proportional to spending in defence. Something our neighbours in the east are realizing because they current dont have enough pilots to fly a fleet that has a high proportion of unserviceable jets. The PAF has a particular limit and operational tempo that they wish to keep because regardless of better economics you cannot even fathom to compete with India and its economy( basic resource pool and time makes it a very very long shot).

What one can do is what the Israelis do in planning against an all out offensive from their current friendly Arab neighbours and that is maintain superiority in technology and find the asymmetric edge.. in their case it is their utter dominance over the electronic spectrum as compared to any of their neighbours and even many allies. They cannot match the Arabs plane for plane, man for man so they focus on being able to utilize their resources in the most effective manner for shock and awe.

The same goes for the PAF, sadly you are too embroiled in the usual cockamiemie fights with the trash doled out in the politics section to see anything beyond black and white in sides. Had I needed to give any praise to the military I would not have spent twenty words describing thier corrupt nature. RS is no solution but compared to the previous commander he is a welcome reprieve at the top to stave off what was a total looting spree. Can he run the country or is he even qualified to? Not at all, but so far the civilian side hasn't thrown up a single intellectual rival to the Army(and that is saying something regarding the Army's intellect since it isn't exactly the best either).
NS is a businessman so we see progress, but not without him transferring ownership of useful assets to himself. So please,let's try to focus less on blue is my favourite colour of all time rhetoric and counter rhetoric to more along what works for the feng shui based on the otherwise pathetic décor.

Pakistan isnt exactly your poster boy state and the military has cocked it up so bad over the years that it now faces a dilemma of not knowing how to fix it anymore. That does not mean that it still does not have useful inputs available and it is always a partnership of resources that can stave off disaster. And praise of an effort or quality regardless of which side the person is from does not imply Im lifting his scrotum to lick it all the time.

 

[MastanKhan]

F-16XL was never produced in large numbers so the economy of scale doesn't matter.


China/Pakistan can always increase the number of JF-17 they produce. JF-17 blk/3 and blk/4 should garner some attention in the 2nd and 3rd world.


I can see 300 JF-17 being build in the next 15 years

Hi,

Thank you for your post---at 20% increase in size---is really what is needed for the JF17---.

I mean to say---the F2 issues is not the best example---. Just because they chose to make an aircraft that was a little bigger than F16---and that caused a problem---as someone with automotive engineering background---I cannot believe that.

What does size in the same parameter has to do with the engineering issues---they were just teething problems---the aesa radar of the 90's was not as powerful---so big deal---the Cell phones of today are 100 times more powerful than the desktops of the 90's.

The current JF17 is already a successful aircraft---and there should absolutely be no problem to do the modifications.

And if the WS13 engine is ready in a year or two----and that was supposed to be the original engine planned for this aircraft---then I would doubt if there would be any major changes to be done to the tunnel.

If that is the case then the wing and wheels re-location modifictaion and strengthening of the frame and wings should not be a big issue---. I think that is a 6 months project---.

Taller wheel assembly is a must for the aircraft to carry ALCM's with reasonable clearance from the ground---. I think that Gripen NG has given the JF 17 and excellent design option for modifications.

I think the BLK 3 with aesa and HOBS capability will bring a lots more interest in this aircraft. I would not be surprised if they reach 500 + in 15 years.

I think that a somewhat 20% larger JF17 BLK 4 will be a game changer for the Paf---and the other market.

@Viper0011.

When you talk about the BLK4 being 90% of the F16---I would assume that it would be to the BLK 60 and not the BLK 52.

The supposed upgrade on the BLK 3 should make it close to the BLK 52 in some areas and better than the BLK52 in other areas.

 

[barbarosa]

Is the B3 completed that we are thought of B4.

 

[Viper0011.]

@Viper0011.

When you talk about the BLK4 being 90% of the F16---I would assume that it would be to the BLK 60 and not the BLK 52.

The supposed upgrade on the BLK 3 should make it close to the BLK 52 in some areas and better than the BLK52 in other areas.

Block III won't have the ability to lift so much weapons like the -16 block 52 does, also no full composites on the air-frame and no CFT's. May be first gen Chinese AESA. So first you have to meet block 52 all the way, before you look at block 60. JFT block IV would be closer to -16 block 60. If I was to guess, the block IV would have an upgraded air-frame or even a newer air-frame.

But the beauty in meeting block 52 specs is that when that happens, your entire JFT program is then set to be on par with the baseline of the modern tech, i.e. -16 block 52. You can run one project to retro block I and II's to have similar capability at block 52 standard, and keep running the ongoing development as a separate project where you are then modernizing the air-frame and AESA to meet block 60 specs for the JFT block IV. If I was to guess it, the block IV of the JFT, would be an entirely different platform, both avionics and air-frame wise.

 

[MastanKhan]

Is the B3 completed that we are thought of B4.

Hi,

Yes pretty much---. But you have to think and plan two steps ahead---and sometimes you still get behind.

This upgradation would have been on the table when the first sqdrn of the JF17's were flying---and when the Gripen came up with their upgrade for the NG----the discussions must have finalized what the future JF 17 needs to look like---.

If that has not happened---then you have serious issues at air force HQ.

Block III won't have the ability to lift so much weapons like the -16 block 52 does, also no full composites on the air-frame and no CFT's. May be first gen Chinese AESA. So first you have to meet block 52 all the way, before you look at block 60. JFT block IV would be closer to -16 block 60. If I was to guess, the block IV would have an upgraded air-frame or even a newer air-frame.

But the beauty in meeting block 52 specs is that when that happens, your entire JFT program is then set to be on par with the baseline of the modern tech, i.e. -16 block 52. You can run one project to retro block I and II's to have similar capability at block 52 standard, and keep running the ongoing development as a separate project where you are then modernizing the air-frame and AESA to meet block 60 specs for the JFT block IV. If I was to guess it, the block IV of the JFT, would be an entirely different platform, both avionics and air-frame wise.

Hi,

I think that is a very genuine statement that you have made---. By the time the BLK4 comes out---there would be the second generation chinese aesa radar available---in a worst case scenario---.

We could have a selex aesa as well. The bottomline over here is that you have to have something that is larger than the current JF17----and then you will find out there is a lots of electronics packages and at least four fire control aesa radars available for it in the coming years.

 

[Zain Malik]

Is PAC participating in TAI TFX Project..........????????
I came to hear that PAC is also participating in j31 Project.........?????Is that true because I didn't find any authentic source may any one know.....????

 

[RealNapster]

What did you find abusive in my post?

bro. not in your post. i tagged in @Thunder.Storm in my post for the answer he asked for.
but why i tagged him in reply to your post.? well, he asked a question and you answered that. that's why i tagged him in the reply to your post . "so that he can get his answer you know

And Why is that?

because i really respect that guy in your Dp. studied him A-lot. and love him for many reasons. that's the reason.

but don't worry. your Dp is abusive to me doesn't mean you have to change it. Again , "we are democracy" .

 

[Thunder.Storm]

because i really respect that guy in your Dp. studied him A-lot. and love him for many reasons. that's the reason.

but don't worry. your Dp is abusive to me doesn't mean you have to change it. Again , "we are democracy" .

I also respect him and he is one of my favorite, that's why i set his pic on my dp. every one make their dp some kind of animal,fighter jets so i thought why not set my favorite Muslim warier. i couldn't find better pic than this one.

 

[MystryMan]

If we are going to re-engineer JF-17 to a larger air-frame, more powerful engine then what benefits it will offer over lets say a latest J-10C Variant with customized subsystems according to PAF needs?