jhungary
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Wrong.
Unless it's a limited skirmish where it can go either way, a serious naval conflict btw the two where each sends out all of their related naval assets (e.g. all surface ships, subs, naval aviation units, AWACS, anti-sub planes, Helos, spy sats, etc), china wins 100% without doubt, assuming no large amount of F-22 (the US)involved.
You made ONE BIG MISTAKE ON YOUR STATEMENT. You assumed soemthing...... You never assume anything in battle especially someone else's involvement. Bear in mind the US ASSUMED Chinese would not attack during Korean War and see how that get to??
Fighting a Naval war is not like what you calculated. There are many point to consider Geographical Location, Equipment, Support, Combine Service Strength, Technology, Morale and finally, luck
In Most naval battle history There are times and again the smaller force win over a larger force, just to name a few, USS Constitution Engagemen, Taffy 3 Engagement, Suez Canal during 6 days war.
There are problem on both side. On Japanese side, very apparent is their small number of force and their lack of diversity of support. Their advantage is their location (You need to remember Japanese is a Defender, as they currently coccupied the Senkakus, and odds favor defender), and they are complemented by their advance technology. not to forget strong support from American side, with or without they actually going to war with the Japanese.
The problem with China is they are sparsed deployed in North/East Region, you will not use 100% of the force to attack Japanese in the Senkakus or you will left your waterway opens. So CHinese will only fight with a fraction of the force. Also Chinese role will be attacking instead of defending, where they present their ship and their logistic as a good target before they are within range of their naval engagement. And the final disadvantages is their relative outdated navy. Yes there are new ship which are considered much much more technological but most pf the PLAN are stil lcurrently depending on their older, more outdated equipment.
Of course their tactical number is good, even if 50% strength, Chinese navy still ahead in number than the japanese counterpart.
Being a soldier for 8 years, i have never heard someone say there are 100% winning chance on a certain battle.....
JMSDF will not think like you.
They action follow task force team's work.
Atago/Kongo class are BMD role (and even flag ship role). DDH are flag ship and ASW main force. DD ship like Murasame and Takanami class are GP ship for ASW and ASuW. And Akizuki class are AAW's role for guard DDG and DDH ships. Not mention their Submarine's fleet.
China has number advantage, but PLAN must take time to gather all force for a all out war which It mean no step back and maybe lead a nuke war and the end of this world.
So If there are small and fast conflict, Japan has their advantage.
The problem is, China are fighting on Japanese home water, they have been there since 1900 and still there in 2013. And almost all naval engagement favor defender more than attacker, i would say 50:50 in this case, not a 100% on Chinese