drmeson
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You may be right about sustaining these 6 airframes as flying laboratories because whatever Kowsar-I is or the hypothetical next gen will be, is because of Azarakhsh + Saeqeh-I/II program so their significance is there. They tested many things on these Frankensteins that we are seeing in Kowsar. Yes the program got late by a healthy 7-8 years, Kowsar should have been there by the early 2010s so that HESA would have its hands free for research on next generation. But, if you consider other countries who worked on 4.0 generation light fighters they all got late from their schedules even with massive foriegn help.
As for Kowsar program or conversion, we can see the numbers of the current Tiger II fleet to judge what they are doing. So by the start of 2000, IRIAF had ~65 F-5E/F + around 11 airframes they purchased from Vietnam and Ethiopia. These 11 airframes got dismantled to produce 7 Airframes of Azarakhsh and Saegheh-I/II. This left us with the fleet of 63 F-5E/F (2 crashes) which are currently in service in 5 mixed squadrons. Flightglobal confirms at least 35-45 serial numbers through pics, 16 F-5EF + ~44 F-5E.
Azarakhsh- Kowsar-Saegheh program of Local F-5E/F derivatives to me is almost a replica of the Israeli Nesher-Kfir-Nammar program for Mirage-V. Initial Kfir-C airframes were rebuilt from French-supplied Mirage-III/V (I think ~60). Tom Cooper did some research on them and he even found some parts of airframes of Nesher/Kfir even to this day have metal tags from Dassault on them despite israeli claims of total indigenous production. But thats only the intial 60-70 airframes, 160+ further airframes Kfir-C7 and beyond were built in Israel from scratch like Kowsar-I 37400 was built from scratch as a demonstrated capability that at any time we can add as many planes as we want. 1 Billion USD means 100+ brand new Kowsar as a rough estimate.
Right now, like Kfir, the Kowsar program is a mixture of severe level extensive re-building for 7.5 Million USD + brand new airframes for 9 Million. If BT is to be believed, there will be some ~65 Kowsar-I with Bayyenat-I/Grifo 346, IEI E-warfare suites, Datalink, FBW etc. We have already seen some 18-24 airframes inside HESA out of this number while squadrons of F-5E/F + Saeqeh are not being grounded which means their production (just like Kfir) is more extensive then just conversions. My guess is that over the years, they have created a repository of indestructible parts from existing airframes (like Kfir used Dassault made Mirage V) + brand new local built parts (70 % Kfir was local airframe) and then you have a new Kowsar-I with 0 hour life status. Nothing different from a brand new Kowsar (example 3-7400). So beyond this number of 65 x Kowsar-I will come the next generation in which every single fighter will have to be built entirely from scratch because Tiger II repository by then will be exhausted already and they will need to retire beaten body fleet of 73 x MIRAGEF1 + F-7N by late 2020s so the numbers will have to be filled in otherwise we will get squadrons cut or filled with fast MALE UCAVs as force multipliers. Or worst, if MIG fleet doesnt get the required MLU+Upgradation that it badly needs then you are down by 23 x 4th Gen BVR fighter in your interceptor force. In that case, numbers will have to be made up by brand new Kowsar-I or II whichever will be available by that time.
What will be the next generation of Kowsar/Saegheh program can be judged by the fact how Kfir program unrolled. Kfir itself was turning into a competition for Mirage-2000 market in 1990s. They themselves had plan to create Nammar the next generation of Kfir which would have been 4+ by now with upgrades but with incoming F-16/15 and later F-35 program they just put the project in shelves.. The recent most Kfir-C block 60 which Israelis are trying to market as a new plane from their storage has on par avionics package to Mirage 2000-9. HESA's next fighter in IMO post 65 x Kowsar-I will similarly be 4+ generation at least in terms of radar, avionics, navigation, comm etc. If they fit a larger turbofan inside then you get better physical performance too. Will it have twin tails like Saegheh or one like Kowsar is to be decided. So IRIAF by 2026 will end up with 145 x strong fleet of Interceptors i.e. F-14AM (45-47) + MIG-29 (23) MLUed and upgraded locally + 65 x Kowsar-I. Not a bad force of 12 x 4.0 generation squadrons with LR-BVR and strong e-warfare. Kowsar-II will then start adding upto this force with some 6-8 aircrafts per year. Currently the Missile/Space program, UCAVs, and navy are taking a huge chunk. When the production of Kowsar's 65 aircraft be done by 2026-27, at least the some of the naval constructions be done too so IRIAF might receive the funds to (A) procure 4++ gen which is difficult (B) Produce Kowsar-II.
F-4E/D Dowran will stay but IMO there is a chance that SU-24M might ... might end up either in storage or long shot, in Assad's hands just like a local MLUed SU-22 squadron went there previously. SU-24M are becoming a problem for IRIAF. Not much of local infrastructure is available and the fleet is small to invest time, the money on. Without MLU or upgrade, I see them not taking off in a few years. Signs are there, the recent most IRIAF pics on spotter websites have few pics of IRIAF SU-24 being airborne and we are seeing no evidence of it receiving some new weaponry either. Compare the extensive upgradations of squadrons of F-4E/D. Shows us the priorities of IRIAF.
Yes 70s and 80s were all about camo'ed fighter jets. Then in 2000s things changed to metallic grey. I personally like the American way of keeping the entire fleet metallic grey for standardization. Looks robotically professional and deadly. Modern airforces around us took the same route, while isolated from the world, IRIAF refused to understand the meaning of standardization so we have splinter + Blue + Navy blue + Cream yellow + green + and what not. Except for the piloting skills, ace of aces in this force, I have zero respect for their management skills. It's like squadrons and bases are run by people with HUGE egoes.
