IRIAF | News and Discussions

[Iranitaakharin]

If that is the case why not build underground mountain airbases like China and North Korea have?

China's underground airbases are basically impossible to destroy. You can't destroy it even with nuclear weapons.

IRIAF could built 5-10 underground airbases hosting IRIAF most valuable assets.

The same preposition has come up before on here.

@TheImmortal

Runways are not ramps that one only needs to get to the end of and launch from at that point. They are the length they are for a reason. Aircraft takeoff whenever they have the lift to do so; keeping at aircraft at just under takeoff speed for too long is damaging to the landing gear and tyres, and could have catastrophic results.

The takeoff run depends on the type of aircraft and its fuel and weapons load. It is not fixed.

Airbases like Hamadan have 4000m long runways for many reasons, one of them is to accommodate transport aircraft that would be the only way to replenish an airbase (but especially one in a mountain) quickly.

Underground/mountain runways are a catastrophe waiting to happen if the aircraft based there have any issues at all during takeoff and landing - which they will.

Even if you only wanted to have the supporting infrastructure in a mountain, good luck finding adjacent flat land for a runway.

If you want a big engineering project for an airbase, you're better off making a "normal" super airbase.

Aircraft runways damaged by normal bombs and cruise missiles can be repaired in as little as under 24 hours. You just need to protect them from specialised anti-runway bombs that inflict longer lasting damage, and ballistic missiles if the enemy has them - currently they don't. But ABM systems, coupled with SAMs and the fighters you seek to base there should be capable of fending off these threats.

The major engineering work would be on a highly redundant number of taxiways, and heavily fortified aircraft shelters, fuel/ammo dumps, and other supporting infrastructure. Iran has good experience with fortifying structures of this size.

Red Hill Underground Fuel Storage Facility - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Hack-Hook]

You do realize that underground tunnel:

Is similar width and height

To this:

Just because there is no fighter jets now doesn’t mean they can’t fit them in there. No point right now since war is not on horizon. Pilots still need to train.

Plus outside of F-14 and a few Mig’s not a lot of high value air assets exist in Iran’s airforce anymore.

well , when you want to bomb enemy position , you see the most valuable would be Su-24 and F-4 of army and Su-21 of IRGC

let put it like it , for Iran air force primary target in Iraqi air force was its bombers not fighters . most daring and complex operation of our air force was H-3 airstrike. the target was Iraqi bombers not fighters
in war always enemy bombers had higher priority than its fighters army for army always destroying enemy artillery have higher priority than its tanks

 

[drmeson]

You do realize that underground tunnel:

Is similar width and height

To this:

Just because there is no fighter jets now doesn’t mean they can’t fit them in there. No point right now since war is not on horizon. Pilots still need to train.

Plus outside of F-14 and a few Mig’s not a lot of high value air assets exist in Iran’s airforce anymore.

With their weak radar and lack of electronic warfare suite, MIG fleet is not very valuable as you are making them to be. The same would not have been true if this was an upgraded MIG to even 9.13 standard even with a local suite from SAIRAN, but unfortunately, they are not.

Here are the IRIAF assets in terms of Radar + electronic warfare capabilities. I have listed the detection/tracking range against an enemy fighter with a 2-3 m2 cross-section (F-16). Tracking range matters more than anything in aerial combat.

F-14AM with AWG-9+ (370/270 km, mild level e-warfare, datalink)
Long range BVR: AIM-54+, Fakour-90
BVR: AIM-7E-2
WVR: Fatter/AIM-9P
Ground Attack: None

Kowsar-I with Bayyenat-II/Grifo346 (112/93 km, ECM control, full e-warfare suite, datalink)
Long range BVR and BVR: Possible future procurement of PL-12/PL-15
WVR: Fatter
Ground Attack: SDB-1 variant, Glide PGMs

F-4E (upgraded ones only) with Bayyenat-I (100/80 km, no e-warfare suite, no datalink)
Long range BVR: None, key aero states that Fakour-90 as tested but reduced G's to 3
BVR: AIM-7E-2
WVR: AIM-9P/J
Ground Attack: Ghader AShCM, Possible Long-range LR-CM attack integration, multiple PGMs

MIG-29 9.12 with RLPK-29 N019 (80/40-60 km, no e-warfare suite, no datalink)
Long range BVR: None
BVR: R-27R1
WVR: R-73
Ground Attack: None

Kaman-22/Fotros UCAV with Absar SAR radar (SAR range ~80 km, slant range 30 km, external ECM, datalink)
Long-range ground attack: Heydar-1 LACM, Glide PGMs, SDB-1 variant
Short-range ground attack: Sadid,

So which assets are of more value, we can decide for ourselves.

 

[TheImmortal]

well , when you want to bomb enemy position , you see the most valuable would be Su-24 and F-4 of army and Su-21 of IRGC

let put it like it , for Iran air force primary target in Iraqi air force was its bombers not fighters . most daring and complex operation of our air force was H-3 airstrike. the target was Iraqi bombers not fighters
in war always enemy bombers had higher priority than its fighters army for army always destroying enemy artillery have higher priority than its tanks

We don’t want to bomb enemy positions with our airforce. We are trying to defend the skies and take strain off of air defenses from doing all the work. Look at what happened in Ukraine when Russia couldn’t achieve air superiority. It increased the cost of war on the enemy.

Any war Iran is a part of (Israel or Saudi Arabia or USA) will be an air war and missile war. Nobody is doing a land invasion of Iran. The probability of such a war is very remote.

Also comparing Iran’s capabilities 40 years ago to now is absurd. Iran didn’t have accurate missiles (BM or CM) or UCAVs 40 years ago and thus had to rely on airforce.

With their weak radar and lack of electronic warfare suite, MIG fleet is not very valuable as you are making them to be. The same would not have been true if this was an upgraded MIG to even 9.13 standard even with a local suite from SAIRAN, but unfortunately, they are not.

Here are the IRIAF assets in terms of Radar + electronic warfare capabilities. I have listed the detection/tracking range against an enemy fighter with a 2-3 m2 cross-section (F-16). Tracking range matters more than anything in aerial combat.

F-14AM with AWG-9+ (370/270 km, mild level e-warfare, datalink)
BVR: AIM-54+, Fakour-90, AIM-7E-2
WVR: Fatter/AIM-9P

Kowsar-I with Bayyenat-II/Grifo346 (112/93 km, ECM control, full e-warfare suite, datalink)
BVR: Possible future procurement of PL-12/PL-15
WVR: Fatter

F-4E (upgraded ones only) with Bayyenat-I (100/80 km, no e-warfare suite, no datalink)
BVR: AIM-7E-2, Fakour-90 (reduces range and Gs to 3-4)
WVR: AIM-9P/J

MIG-29 9.12 with RLPK-29 N019 (80/40-60 km, no e-warfare suite, no datalink)
BVR: R-27R1
WVR: R-73

Kaman-22/Fotros UCAV with Absar SAR radar (SAR range ~80 km, slant range 30 km, external ECM, datalink)
Long-range ground attack: Heydar-1 LACM, Glide PGMs
Short-range ground attack: Sadid

So which assets are of more value, we can decide for ourselves.

Mig is still very valuable hence why Ukraine tried to get there hands on them from NATO countries. Yes Iran’s are a bit long in the tooth, but at this point beggars can’t be choosers.

Kowsar is irrelevant as it doesn’t have a BVR at this time. Speculation and hope for a BVR is not a strategy. Thus right now it doesn’t make sense, to keep F-5’s or Kowsar in mountain airbases. It could change if it is able to get a BVR in sufficient quantity. Wouldn’t hold my breath on China giving us anything after the C-802 debacle in late 90’s.

 

[drmeson]

Mig is still very valuable hence why Ukraine tried to get there hands on them from NATO countries. Yes Iran’s are a bit long in the tooth, but at this point beggars can’t be choosers.

Kowsar is irrelevant as it doesn’t have a BVR at this time. Speculation and hope for a BVR is not a strategy. Thus right now it doesn’t make sense, to keep F-5’s or Kowsar in mountain airbases. It could change if it is able to get a BVR in sufficient quantity. Wouldn’t hold my breath on China giving us anything after the C-802 debacle in late 90’s.

MIG of Ukraine is 9.13 and even better with upgrades, they are armed with ARH R-77. They have survived against SU-20SM/35S/MIG-31BM but our MIGS are 9.12 with no e-warfare suite, no datalink, they are armed with R-27R1 SARH failure missile. They would not survive easily against EF-2000 or Rafale. They wont see a 1m2 adversary before 60 km and by that time they will be jammed, tracked, fired upon, gone. You are seeing the shape of an IRIAF MIG which looks same as MIG-29M so you are thinking "oh they are great". In reality they are like MIG-21-93 at best. If IRIAF does not give them proper MLU and an extensive local upgrade with IEI package, this fleet will turn into a burden.

As for Kowsar, I truly believe if IRIAF decides to get its underground strategy in motion, it will take them about 3-4 years to develop assets, train staff, pilots, etc. By that time Kowsar's next generation will be there to get into production which will be even better than the current one in terms of avionics package. That asset will be worth saving. Even the current one can massively help F-14AM and Airdefence a lot more compared to what a relic MIG 9.12 or the flying brick F-4E can do.

As for Iran-China cooperation, you need to read about IEI-CATIC deep cooperation from western unbiased sources. I read them, I saw the evidence too. Using logic, I have no doubt IRIAF will get its first 4+ or 4++ generation Kowsar-II in few years, even the current one was no less a miracle from IAMI floors (clowns that gave us Qaher) and there is a proper role of CATIC, China in it. My own assumption, PL-12/15 would not come to Iran. They will be made in Iran like how long-range OTHRs and Track radars, SM-2/40N6 equivalents are being made inside Iran. You walk then you run, HESA has learned to walk with Kowsar.

 

[TheImmortal]

MIG of Ukraine is 9.13 and even better with upgrades, they are armed with ARH R-77. They have survived against SU-20SM/35S/MIG-31BM but our MIGS are 9.12 with no e-warfare suite, no datalink, they are armed with R-27R1 SARH failure missile. They would not survive easily against EF-2000 or Rafale. They wont see a 1m2 adversary before 60 km and by that time they will be jammed, tracked, fired upon, gone. You are seeing the shape of an IRIAF MIG which looks same as MIG-29M so you are thinking "oh they are great". In reality they are like MIG-21-93 at best. If IRIAF does not give them proper MLU and an extensive local upgrade with IEI package, this fleet will turn into a burden.

As for Kowsar, I truly believe if IRIAF decides to get its underground strategy in motion, it will take them about 3-4 years to develop assets, train staff, pilots, etc. By that time Kowsar's next generation will be there to get into production which will be even better than the current one in terms of avionics package. That asset will be worth saving. Even the current one can massively help F-14AM and Airdefence a lot more compared to what a relic MIG 9.12 or the flying brick F-4E can do.

As for Iran-China cooperation, you need to read about IEI-CATIC deep cooperation from western unbiased sources. I read them, I saw the evidence too. Using logic, I have no doubt IRIAF will get its first 4+ or 4++ generation Kowsar-II in few years, even the current one was no less a miracle from IAMI floors (clowns that gave us Qaher) and there is a proper role of CATIC, China in it. My own assumption, PL-12/15 would not come to Iran. They will be made in Iran like how long-range OTHRs and Track radars, SM-2/40N6 equivalents are being made inside Iran. You walk then you run, HESA has learned to walk with Kowsar.

I wasn’t speaking about Ukrainian Migs. Many of them were destroyed while sitting in repair and overhaul facilities. I am talking about Old Migs sitting with NATO militaries. There was talk of donating them to Ukraine. These weren’t top of the line upgraded Migs, but Ukraine was still desperate to get their hands on them. In the end the deal fell thru because no NATO country wanted to be the one that physically delivered it.

Your whole strategy on Kowsar can be best summed up on “if Iran decides to invest in the platform”.

That’s a big IF. So we need to stop making your IF sound like it’s already a forgone conclusion. There is nothing out there that shows IRIAF, HESA, and Iran’s armed forces in general are willing to invest substantial capital and facilities to mass produce the number of Kowsar I or II or III that you allude to.

This saga has been ongoing for 2 decades. So I’m just going to wait for tangible results and actions rather than the same old press release talk we have been getting.

 

[drmeson]

I wasn’t speaking about Ukrainian Migs. Many of them were destroyed while sitting in repair and overhaul facilities. I am talking about Old Migs sitting with NATO militaries. There was talk of donating them to Ukraine. These weren’t top of the line upgraded Migs, but Ukraine was still desperate to get their hands on them. In the end the deal fell thru because no NATO country wanted to be the one that physically delivered it.

Future Ukrainian procurement is irrelevant to the discussion here.

Ukrainian AF has not fought Ru-AF SU-30SM/35S with anything other than their own MIG-29 9.13 which is again ... far better than the relic IRIAF operates. 9.13 Fulcrum-C with almost twice the tracking range of N019M over RPLK-29 N019 (IRIAF), has a good IFF, RWR, and ECM package which 9.12 totally lacks. It also has semi FBW for controls and additional tandem pylons. Last but not least they have R-77 ARH BVR which we lack. You cant accept it because like I said to your mind both the IRIAF MIG 9.12 and 9.13 look the same in pics so they have equal capabilities but in reality, one is a mere MIG-21-93 and the other one is a top-tier BVR fighter that has blocked monsters like SU-35S in the air.

Translating this to actual combat, a 9.13 can see and track a fighter at BVR ranges of 90-100 KM, can fire multiple ARH R-77, and run away from the area using the 65000 ft/min vertical linear dash because it doesn't have to guide the SARH R-27R1 then IRIAF uses. If itself is being tracked it can know this using SPO RWR, it can jam that enemy radar tracking it using ECM package. None of this can happen with a 9.12 since it lacks that package.

That’s a big IF. So we need to stop making your IF sound like it’s already a forgone conclusion. There is nothing out there that shows IRIAF, HESA, and Iran’s armed forces in general are willing to invest substantial capital and facilities to mass produce the number of Kowsar I or II or III that you allude to.

This saga has been ongoing for 2 decades. So I’m just going to wait for tangible results and actions rather than the same old press release talk we have been getting.

Well, you have been shut up recently with your previous silly claim of 6 prop airframes when you were shown that at least 18 airframes have been worked upon. Have not you? No Saeqeh did not see similar production, 6 radar+avionics less aerial performance testbeds were made in 11 years. That was shown to you as well when you decided to leave the argument.

You see your problem is of holding a nontechnical and assumptious POV. You are seeing HESA fighter program as a product. I am seeing it as an achieved industrial capability. My concern is that HESA has demonstrated that they can literally raise a 4.0 generation fighter on their floors from scratch. It is the same organization that gave birth to idiots like Parvaneh who were calling the Saeqeh tech demo a F/A-18 equivalent. The modern airframe, the engines, avionics package + nav-comm + FBW control, radar all is demonstrated. Now how many can be made or will be made is upto the money. IRIAF's interests are of no concern here. This organization wasted money on overhauling and maintenance of weapon+radar less fleet of some 73 x Mirage F1EQ + F-7N like jokes. So do they even know what is good for them? They were having trouble gathering money to bringing some 40-45 x F-14A to F-14 AM standards for 1 million USD a plane but MIRAGE+F-7 trash fleet was more important for them.

and btw CATIC's cooperation with HESA is not a "press release talk". Its shown in the products we are seeing in Iran. I can post them here if you want.

 

[TheImmortal]

Future Ukrainian procurement is irrelevant to the discussion here.

Ukrainian AF has not fought Ru-AF SU-30SM/35S with anything other than their own MIG-29 9.13 which is again ... far better than the relic IRIAF operates. 9.13 Fulcrum-C with almost twice the tracking range of N019M over RPLK-29 N019 (IRIAF), has a good IFF, RWR, and ECM package which 9.12 totally lacks. It also has semi FBW for controls and additional tandem pylons. Last but not least they have R-77 ARH BVR which we lack. You cant accept it because like I said to your mind both the IRIAF MIG 9.12 and 9.13 look the same in pics so they have equal capabilities but in reality, one is a mere MIG-21-93 and the other one is a top-tier BVR fighter that has blocked monsters like SU-35S in the air.

Translating this to actual combat, a 9.13 can see and track a fighter at BVR ranges of 90-100 KM, can fire multiple ARH R-77, and run away from the area using the 65000 ft/min vertical linear dash because it doesn't have to guide the SARH R-27R1 then IRIAF uses. If itself is being tracked it can know this using SPO RWR, it can jam that enemy radar tracking it using ECM package. None of this can happen with a 9.12 since it lacks that package.

And none of this can happen with Kowsar either since it lacks a BVR. I understand what you are saying about the lack of upgraded MIg in Iran’s inventory. But as it stands now Kowsar is in same position in terms of engaging lacking a BVR. I don’t see why you don’t address that dilemma like you do the same way with the Migs

Well, you have been shut up recently with your previous silly claim of 6 prop airframes when you were shown that at least 18 airframes have been worked upon. Have not you? No Saeqeh did not see similar production, 6 radar+avionics less aerial performance testbeds were made in 11 years. That was shown to you as well when you decided to leave the argument.

My claim wasn’t ment to be precise. It was a jest at the same presidential photos we see under each president. I said how come every time I see this prokect it’s 6-12 airframes that are sitting around giving the appearance of mass production. They did the same thing at unveiling then when got the infamous picture that showed production is not anywhere close to what they were touting at unveiling. (Can’t remember if it was ~1 per month or what. So I won’t make any claim here on the poster).

And Saeqeh not seeing even 1 or 2 squadrons production was a shock to me. I’ll take your word for it. I could have sworn that press releases said back in the day they had at least a squadron. Maybe my memory is getting fuzzy. But I don’t see how that serves your point, it actually serves mine showing you this has been test bed project since the start.

They could upgrade many current F-5’s to “Kowsar standard” and still haven’t. Why is that?

. The modern airframe, the engines, avionics package + nav-comm + FBW control, radar all is demonstrated. Now how many can be made or will be made is upto the money.

So ask yourself, if what you say is true. And the plane is 9-10M to produce (very cheap when a Turkish TB-2 cost 2-3M) then how come the flows into the project are still just at a trickle? Certainly the powers that be have access to all necessary data to make an informed decision.

I think you have to assume a typically fighter has a 20+ year lifespan. If Iran invests in Kowsar I or II. Is this plane still going to be competitive in 2035? 2040? If you produce only 12 Kowsar a year, it will take a decade just to reach 120 fighters. How many owj engines can Iran mass produce? How many radars can it mass produce?

A lot of unknown variables that Iran has never come out and described for a plane that is supposedly available for export. Has Iran even confirmed the statistics of the radar that we are all assuming is a Griffo?

The F-5 crowd was on IMF back in the day as well as was the ones who were adamant that F-313 would fly within a few years. I got roasted back then saying seeing that Qaher fly before 5 years would be unlikely. Got roasted when I joined saying here that was unlikely for years. Then got roasted saying it was likely shelved since there was next to no new information besides a Rouhani propaganda photo op of a taxi run. You can tell when Iran’s serious about a project (Bavar-373) and when it’s not (attack helicopter project, Yasin, etc)

I don’t mind if Iran spends some money to build or upgrade the current F-5’s to be competitive in today’s era. My focus is on the development of heavy engines and medium and heavy fighters they announced 5+ years ago. My focus is on what happened to Sofreh Mahi. I’m not focused on Kowsar nor do I think it’s the future of Iranian Air Force. Sure some technologies could be extrapolated into the next Iranian fighter.

There was a very very knowledgeable person by the name of @evilwesterners who wrote extensively on Iran’s aerospace with direct knowledge to the technology and expertise available to Iran. I suggest if his posts are still available you go back and read them. Unfortunately he left within last 2 years as quick as he joined.

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

General TheImmortal
is very pathetic on this subject. He understands nothing to nothing and has no intuition

1 year after the introduction of Kowsar, an Iranian general declared that he had made a great advance on the Kowsar in only 1 years. Iran has a nice surprise in store for us. I read an article that said that kowsar would be in contact with drones with artificial intelligence.

I saw a new radar in a plane factory but I did not find the image. The Kowsar II is perhaps the single-seater Vesion which already built. I also read that Iran tries to make the Kowsar stealth. They do not wait for your complaints to advance

This confirms again and again that Iran is more advanced than their public ads, I have noticed this fact for years. Let's wait for the official public exit of the single -seater version to see these advances

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

Kowsar equipped with Qaem, Sadid, SDB

During the visit of the Iranian president to the installations of the Aircraft Manufacturing Company of the Ministry of Defense in the province of Ispahan, an important step was taken to equip the Kowsar hunters with remote -controlled weapons and guidance bombs of precision.

The issue of equipment that can be embarked on the National Kowsar hunter, which is one of the important projects in the Iranian defense industry, is one of the measures that have been discussed in recent years.

Iranian air defense industry experts have designed and built new equipment to install on Kowsar planes, including a bomb similar to the Small Diameter Bomb series (SDB) equipped with retractable wings which are a new generation of bombs Iranian satellite guidance.
The Iranian bomb, on which little information has been disclosed, had already been observed under the wings in Iranian drones Kaman 12 and Karar, and was designed for the first time to be installed in the Iranian hunter Kowsar.

The bomb is equipped with two pairs of wings, the first X -shaped of which is located at the bottom of the bomb and the second, is installed there.

Although the name and specifications of this bomb have not been officially revealed, according to its appearance, you could say that it is a light bomb, probably in the total weight category between 100 and 150 kg, of a range varying between 60 and 100 kilometers which was designed in the initial phase to target fixed targets.

Such a scope gives the Iranian fighter the ability to distinguish on enemy targets without being detected by many advanced air defense systems.

The light weight of the bomb also allows it to be on board not only on drones, but also in large numbers of fighter planes.

At least 8 cartridges of this bomb can be embarked on an F-4 hunter and at least 4 cartridges on an F5 or Kowsar hunter.

Press tv

 

[Hack-Hook]

I wasn’t speaking about Ukrainian Migs. Many of them were destroyed while sitting in repair and overhaul facilities. I am talking about Old Migs sitting with NATO militaries. There was talk of donating them to Ukraine. These weren’t top of the line upgraded Migs, but Ukraine was still desperate to get their hands on them. In the end the deal fell thru because no NATO country wanted to be the one that physically delivered it.

the European Migs were probably 9.13 but even if they were 9.12 they are far better than Iran mig-29 because they were sent to Warsaw pact allies and those allies get Migs with superior component compared to non allies countries. not all mig-29 9.12 are made the same , the radar and electronics in our Migs are shit

and Ukraine wanted those Migs not because they were superior , but because their pilots were familiar with them and knew how to fly them.

We don’t want to bomb enemy positions with our airforce. We are trying to defend the skies and take strain off of air defenses from doing all the work. Look at what happened in Ukraine when Russia couldn’t achieve air superiority. It increased the cost of war on the enemy.

well , if you don't bomb enemy position , Radars and air defense you won't get air superiority and if you don't achieve it , well look at Ukraine

Any war Iran is a part of (Israel or Saudi Arabia or USA) will be an air war and missile war. Nobody is doing a land invasion of Iran. The probability of such a war is very remote.

in case of land invasion , you need CAS not bombers .

Also comparing Iran’s capabilities 40 years ago to now is absurd. Iran didn’t have accurate missiles (BM or CM) or UCAVs 40 years ago and thus had to rely on airforce.

the mistake of abandoning one aspect of power projection in favor of another aspect , very wrong indeed

Your whole strategy on Kowsar can be best summed up on “if Iran decides to invest in the platform”.

all evidence point to Iran is investing in something based in F-5 all other things come and go , this one is there from ages ago and still there

 

[drmeson]

And none of this can happen with Kowsar either since it lacks a BVR. I understand what you are saying about the lack of upgraded MIg in Iran’s inventory. But as it stands now Kowsar is in same position in terms of engaging lacking a BVR. I don’t see why you don’t address that dilemma like you do the same way with the Migs

Wrong choice of words here by you. It does not "lack BVR" it lacks a "BVR missile". Its radar and Fire control system is equivalent to that of FCK-1, T-50, TEJAS. FC-1 Blk I/II. We literally have no idea what will they procure for it from China if the plane gets fully operationalized.

Lets have a comparision between Kowsar and MIG-29

- If they procure ARH PL-12/15 for Kowsar I/II then IRIAF can have some ~150 fighters with PL-12/15 + e-warfare/ECM suite. Based upon how much money they will put into its production. 150 will cost some 1.5-2 Billions USD (I am assuming Kowsar next gen to be atleast 15-20 Millions USD per unit if they use AESA and HOTAS).

- If they procure ARH R-77 for MIG-29 then IRIAF will have 23 fighters whose airframes are 30 years old (require MLU) and they lack entire ECM and e-warfare suites.

So tell me which option is better?

My claim wasn’t ment to be precise. It was a jest at the same presidential photos we see under each president. I said how come every time I see this prokect it’s 6-12 airframes that are sitting around giving the appearance of mass production. They did the same thing at unveiling then when got the infamous picture that showed production is not anywhere close to what they were touting at unveiling. (Can’t remember if it was ~1 per month or what. So I won’t make any claim here on the poster).

Well, you were very precise with the number. You said there are "6 prop airframes" only. You did not say 12 or anything. You said 6. Then I proved to you that even if we assume that Raisi's 6 were the 6 out of Ashtiani's 12 and we do know that 4 out of the initial 7 have been at TAB-2 for evaluation (1+ 3 that showed acrojet maneuvers). Then there are at least 18-19 airframes that have been worked upon in HESA. Now we can argue whether 18 units/4 years is enough or not but the 6 prop jab was just silly.

And Saeqeh not seeing even 1 or 2 squadrons production was a shock to me. I’ll take your word for it. I could have sworn that press releases said back in the day they had at least a squadron. Maybe my memory is getting fuzzy. But I don’t see how that serves your point, it actually serves mine showing you this has been test bed project since the start.

Saeqeh numbers are not my words Its their serials that add up to 6 airframes.

I gave the Saeqeh numbers because you were saying that Saeqeh also saw some 24 airframes (2 squadrons) so will Kowsar but I proved that Saeqeh barely got 6 airframes/11 years. They tested what they could like squared air intakes, twin tails, elongated radom, domestic made pylons, and probably some FBW components. I had a long discussion on IMF once with Eagle 2009 whether Saeqeh with V tails can even fly without FBW control. They also tested twin seat config with exact same cockpit 3 x LCDs + HUD on Saeqeh-II that we today see in Kowsar.

And then the project concluded. Kowsar's case is different.

They could upgrade many current F-5’s to “Kowsar standard” and still haven’t. Why is that?

So ask yourself, if what you say is true. And the plane is 9-10M to produce (very cheap when a Turkish TB-2 cost 2-3M) then how come the flows into the project are still just at a trickle? Certainly the powers that be have access to all necessary data to make an informed decision.

I think you have to assume a typically fighter has a 20+ year lifespan. If Iran invests in Kowsar I or II. Is this plane still going to be competitive in 2035? 2040? If you produce only 12 Kowsar a year, it will take a decade just to reach 120 fighters. How many owj engines can Iran mass produce? How many radars can it mass produce?

Like I said, IRIAF has no budget + management, they are a very stupid bunch except for the piloting skills which we know they massively excel at (only AF in the world to have 4th generation ace of aces).

Waste of Budget:

- 23 x Mirage-F1 that we know, do not have a single missile to fire in inventory. Let alone missile, it does not even have pylons to hang ammunitions from. I think they even lack a functioning Cyrano-IV. Why create a Mirage infrastructure? train pilots? maintain a stupid platform that lost 34:1 to F-14A during the war?

- ~44-50 F-7N. Why waste money on this stupid 3rd generation BVR-less Chinese MIG-21? It offers nothing in combat for the last 20 years. Why did they even purchase it is beyond me. They could have got J-8IIM from the same source but they instead went for this stupid fighter. Pilots, Infrastructure, overhaul centers, and training all went to waste.

- 60 x F-5E/F fleet offers nothing, they have served us well, and helped us win the air war strongly against Baathists but it's time to go. They are sitting ducks in the sky against what we might face in the air from enemies. The ones who did well in combat like shooting down MIG-25 or carrying out attacks on Iraqi oil fields can go to museums.

So IRIAF had the money for above three but they refused to make a budget plan for F-14A => F-14AM standard upgradation or even a local HESA+IEI based MIG-29 9.12 upgrade that we know is in dire need of upgradation. A HESA+IEI upgrade of F-14AM+MIG29 9.12 means you have 75 x 4+ generation top-notch interceptors that can bully and shoot any intruder in the sky from 150 km away (Fakour-90's range). But they instead went with wasting money on maintenance + overhaul of mentioned 160 x good for nothing fleet. So can we rely upon these people to make sensible financial decisions?

Bad management:

Why are they not producing Kowsar at a rate of lets say 12-14/year. I will tell you why ? because they are bad at the management of projects. They could have generated money by grounding the Mirage fleet first which offers less that what F-7N offers (F-7N at least fires PL-7C). But they did not. If 18-24 Kowsar airframes are already worked upon, Why are we not seeing squadrons of F-5 being grounded to be dismantled for useful parts in production? When I saw first 6 Kowsars I thought next year we will see one F-5E/F squadron grounded but that did not happen. Now we have seen 18-24 airframes of Kowsars and still not a single F-5E/F squadron is gone. Why would they waste money on creating Kowsar airframes from scratch when they actually can just get some useful parts from dismantled F-5E/F? F-5's only use right now is to ground them and dismantled into parts, throw away the APQ-153 radars, J-85, cockpits, canopies, skins, wings, tails, radoms, actuators, fuel lines and pumps, wirings, rugged airframe parts, landing gear assembly etc because none of it is of any use to IRIAF. Whatever will be left can create a large repository of parts that can be used for keeping the Kowsar I/II fleet of 120 fighters in a top-notch combat-ready condition. Pilots get 200+ flying hours on them yearly while you have a long tracking radar with ECM, and e-warfare suite flying in the air on a highly manuverable platform that has 1m2 RCS.

I think you have to assume a typically fighter has a 20+ year lifespan. If Iran invests in Kowsar I or II. Is this plane still going to be competitive in 2035? 2040? If you produce only 12 Kowsar a year, it will take a decade just to reach 120 fighters. How many owj engines can Iran mass produce? How many radars can it mass produce?

Not exactly, we have nations around us that are purchasing 4.0 generation fighters (attributes comparable to Kowsar or even below).

Turkey is designing Hurjet combat version
Iraq just recently ordered FC-1
Taiwan came up with T-5
Sweden/Australia/Serbia might induct T-7 Redhawk combat version
Pakistan flying FC-1 Blk-I/II, they also purchased a batch of used ex Egyptian Mirage-V (wtf???)
India getting its TEJAS M1 (a fighter they took 30+ years to make)

Manned 4th generation fighters will keep flying for as long as there is an unmanned substitute for them which I described in my previous post. Something that can fly at 1.5-2 Mach, pull 10+ G's, tracks enemy at 150+ km, fires at least 4 x BVR + 4 x WVR missiles, climbs at 40000-50000 feet/min, and makes its own decisions during battle. Right now even USA has no such machine in production so what are you expecting from HESA? trust me we might see Iranian air-to-air specialized UCAV before we might see something similar from Russia. We have a larger more diverse fleet of MALE UCAVs than Russia after all.

As for the Kowsar production, we know there have been 18-24 airframes at HESA. If the target is to get 60 x Kowsar-1 fighters (5 fully equipped combat squadrons) then HESA has already worked upon 1/3 of the targetted numbers. Even if they get some 6-8/year airframes done by the 2023 year (quoting BT's estimate) 2023, the project will conclude in 2027. IRIAF will have ~160 x 4.0 generation BVR interceptors (F-14AM, MIG, Kowsar) + layered L/SH/ORAD + 300 MALE UCAVs for ELINT/SIGINT, PGM, and LACM strikes. Not a bad deal I say. If they manage to get SU-35S/J-10C or even some additional numbers of MIG-29M/MIG-35 then it will be an additional force multiplier. Farewell to F-7N, MirageF1, F-5E/F.

A lot of unknown variables that Iran has never come out and described for a plane that is supposedly available for export. Has Iran even confirmed the statistics of the radar that we are all assuming is a Griffo?

Decide for yourself.

1) Same number of T/R elements (300 each in ditto 12 rows)- Check
2) Same no. of antenna edges (12) - Check
3) Same processing and power unit size and design, even the lifting handles are dittos - Check
4) Same tracking range - Check
5) Same configuration Tracks 8, attacks 2 targets - Check
6) Same weight
7) Even the steering platform design is a ditto

NRIET of China (a CATIC subsidiary for radars) copied some Grifo radar designs as dittos or they purchased them as TOT since Leonardo (makers of grifo) did not get their bids successful for these products sale, while CATIC already was in large contracts with rogue nations so Leonardo (Italy) technically got business through CATIC of China. Italians are tricky people. Hence:-

Grifo S becomes KLJ-7 on FC-1 Block I/II
Grifo 346 becomes KLJ-Whatever that got TOT-ed to IEI as Bayynet-II of Kowsar,
Grifo E becomes KLJ-7A AESA on FC-1 Blk III or Bayyenat-III for Kowsar-II (highly likely)

... or the Chinese stole the blueprints or copied them. We will never know.

Topic for another time but there is a ditto of Bayyenaat-I on upgraded F-4E of IRIAF in the PLAAF right now too.

The F-5 crowd was on IMF back in the day as well as was the ones who were adamant that F-313 would fly within a few years. I got roasted back then saying seeing that Qaher fly before 5 years would be unlikely. Got roasted when I joined saying here that was unlikely for years. Then got roasted saying it was likely shelved since there was next to no new information besides a Rouhani propaganda photo op of a taxi run. You can tell when Iran’s serious about a project (Bavar-373) and when it’s not (attack helicopter project, Yasin, etc)

Except that Kowsar is here and Qaher was Hassan Parvaneh + Ahmed Vahidi + Ahmadinejad's stupidity who decided to present a mockup concept (every other country did same) as an in-production fighter. Kowsar cant be compared to Qaher. Qaher will fly one day with modifications if the airframe design came from Shafagh's R&D between HESA and Mukhamedov OKB. If not then it won't.

I don’t mind if Iran spends some money to build or upgrade the current F-5’s to be competitive in today’s era. My focus is on the development of heavy engines and medium and heavy fighters they announced 5+ years ago. My focus is on what happened to Sofreh Mahi. I’m not focused on Kowsar nor do I think it’s the future of Iranian Air Force. Sure some technologies could be extrapolated into the next Iranian fighter.

There was a very very knowledgeable person by the name of @evilwesterners who wrote extensively on Iran’s aerospace with direct knowledge to the technology and expertise available to Iran. I suggest if his posts are still available you go back and read them. Unfortunately he left within last 2 years as quick as he joined.

Kowsar is not the future of IRIAF but it is ensuring there is a future. No light fighter is a future of any force like

Hurjet LCA is not the future of Turkish Hava Kuvvetleri, they want EF-2000
T-5 is not the future of Taiwanese AF, they are iducting more F-16
TEJAS is not the future for Indian AF, they are inducting Rafale @ ~130 Million USD per unit
FC-1 is not the future of Pak-AF , inducting J-10C + just purchased Mirage V for parts
T-7 is not the future of Swedish/Austrailian AF, they are chasing 5th gen
T-50 is not the future of Korean or Indonesian AF, they are chasing 5th gen

I will call anyone who thinks Kowsar is the answer to IRIAF's aging fleet a stupid person. Like I said before do not see this as a product, I see it as an achieved industrial capability that will initially give a 60-70 electronically advanced BVR capable interceptors as stop gap while we have nothing else. The same capability in 2-3 years can evolve (high likely it will) into a much better "product" that will be Kowsar-II. Even if it wont, the current capability can provide the much needed extensive upgrade to MIG Fleet or may arm the future A2A-UCAV.

I know who EvilWesterner is. I have talked to him before. I have talked to you/other members as well on IDF/IMF. IMF is gone but some of my predictions have exactly true e.g

I predicted Zoljanah (Sejjil derivative SLV) in 2012/13 when people called me silly because we only knew our tested Safir SLV. I also predicted Hawk based genuine production of a local AIM-54 and we have Fakour-90. I also predicted future IRIAF+IRGC-AF fleet of some 300-400 HALE/MALE UCAVs. We have that now.

My current predictions (based upon logic and published articles) in a few years are:

4+ or 4++ gen Kowsar-II
Sejjil based MaRV-ICBMs
Bavar 373 becomes equivalent to S-500
Stealth Shahed 171 into IRIAF
Air to Air UCAV with WVR missiles
KAMAN-22/FOTROS/GAZA with SIGINT/ELINT roles
Unveiling of Iranian possession of initially 8-10 mid to low yield Fission devices.
IRIN/IRGCN UCAV Carriers

 

[sha ah]

With the current political tensions between Russia/China and the west, it's more likely than ever that Iran will be able to procure vital parts & components in order to upgrade its fleet of aging MIGs.

Migoyan has been struggling for some time because of a lack of exports and they were recently merged with Sukhoi so they should be eager for anything that comes their way, including upgrading Iran's MIGs. Either that or Iran can upgrade them with Chinese technology.

As for new fighters, it's either Flankers from Russia or J-10s from China from what I've read.

Wrong choice of words here by you. It does not "lack BVR" it lacks a "BVR missile". Its radar and Fire control system is equivalent to that of FCK-1, T-50, TEJAS. FC-1 Blk I/II. We literally have no idea what will they procure for it from China if the plane gets fully operationalized.

Lets have a comparision between Kowsar and MIG-29

- If they procure ARH PL-12/15 for Kowsar I/II then IRIAF can have some ~150 fighters with PL-12/15 + e-warfare/ECM suite. Based upon how much money they will put into its production. 150 will cost some 1.5-2 Billions USD (I am assuming Kowsar next gen to be atleast 15-20 Millions USD per unit if they use AESA and HOTAS).

- If they procure ARH R-77 for MIG-29 then IRIAF will have 23 fighters whose airframes are 30 years old (require MLU) and they lack entire ECM and e-warfare suites.

So tell me which option is better?



Well, you were very precise with the number. You said there are "6 prop airframes" only. You did not say 12 or anything. You said 6. Then I proved to you that even if we assume that Raisi's 6 were the 6 out of Ashtiani's 12 and we do know that 4 out of the initial 7 have been at TAB-2 for evaluation (1+ 3 that showed acrojet maneuvers). Then there are at least 18-19 airframes that have been worked upon in HESA. Now we can argue whether 18 units/4 years is enough or not but the 6 prop jab was just silly.



Saeqeh numbers are not my words Its their serials that add up to 6 airframes.

I gave the Saeqeh numbers because you were saying that Saeqeh also saw some 24 airframes (2 squadrons) so will Kowsar but I proved that Saeqeh barely got 6 airframes/11 years. They tested what they could like squared air intakes, twin tails, elongated radom, domestic made pylons, and probably some FBW components. I had a long discussion on IMF once with Eagle 2009 whether Saeqeh with V tails can even fly without FBW control. They also tested twin seat config with exact same cockpit 3 x LCDs + HUD on Saeqeh-II that we today see in Kowsar.

And then the project concluded. Kowsar's case is different.



Like I said, IRIAF has no budget + management, they are a very stupid bunch except for the piloting skills which we know they massively excel at (only AF in the world to have 4th generation ace of aces).

Waste of Budget:

- 23 x Mirage-F1 that we know, do not have a single missile to fire in inventory. Let alone missile, it does not even have pylons to hang ammunitions from. I think they even lack a functioning Cyrano-IV. Why create a Mirage infrastructure? train pilots? maintain a stupid platform that lost 34:1 to F-14A during the war?

- ~44-50 F-7N. Why waste money on this stupid 3rd generation BVR-less Chinese MIG-21? It offers nothing in combat for the last 20 years. Why did they even purchase it is beyond me. They could have got J-8IIM from the same source but they instead went for this stupid fighter. Pilots, Infrastructure, overhaul centers, and training all went to waste.

- 60 x F-5E/F fleet offers nothing, they have served us well, and helped us win the air war strongly against Baathists but it's time to go. They are sitting ducks in the sky against what we might face in the air from enemies. The ones who did well in combat like shooting down MIG-25 or carrying out attacks on Iraqi oil fields can go to museums.

So IRIAF had the money for above three but they refused to make a budget plan for F-14A => F-14AM standard upgradation or even a local HESA+IEI based MIG-29 9.12 upgrade that we know is in dire need of upgradation. A HESA+IEI upgrade of F-14AM+MIG29 9.12 means you have 75 x 4+ generation top-notch interceptors that can bully and shoot any intruder in the sky from 150 km away (Fakour-90's range). But they instead went with wasting money on maintenance + overhaul of mentioned 160 x good for nothing fleet. So can we rely upon these people to make sensible financial decisions?

Bad management:

Why are they not producing Kowsar at a rate of lets say 12-14/year. I will tell you why ? because they are bad at the management of projects. They could have generated money by grounding the Mirage fleet first which offers less that what F-7N offers (F-7N at least fires PL-7C). But they did not. If 18-24 Kowsar airframes are already worked upon, Why are we not seeing squadrons of F-5 being grounded to be dismantled for useful parts in production? When I saw first 6 Kowsars I thought next year we will see one F-5E/F squadron grounded but that did not happen. Now we have seen 18-24 airframes of Kowsars and still not a single F-5E/F squadron is gone. Why would they waste money on creating Kowsar airframes from scratch when they actually can just get some useful parts from dismantled F-5E/F? F-5's only use right now is to ground them and dismantled into parts, throw away the APQ-153 radars, J-85, cockpits, canopies, skins, wings, tails, radoms, actuators, fuel lines and pumps, wirings, rugged airframe parts, landing gear assembly etc because none of it is of any use to IRIAF. Whatever will be left can create a large repository of parts that can be used for keeping the Kowsar I/II fleet of 120 fighters in a top-notch combat-ready condition. Pilots get 200+ flying hours on them yearly while you have a long tracking radar with ECM, and e-warfare suite flying in the air on a highly manuverable platform that has 1m2 RCS.



Not exactly, we have nations around us that are purchasing 4.0 generation fighters (attributes comparable to Kowsar or even below).

Turkey is designing Hurjet combat version
Iraq just recently ordered FC-1
Taiwan came up with T-5
Sweden/Australia/Serbia might induct T-7 Redhawk combat version
Pakistan flying FC-1 Blk-I/II, they also purchased a batch of used ex Egyptian Mirage-V (wtf???)
India getting its TEJAS M1 (a fighter they took 30+ years to make)

Manned 4th generation fighters will keep flying for as long as there is an unmanned substitute for them which I described in my previous post. Something that can fly at 1.5-2 Mach, pull 10+ G's, tracks enemy at 150+ km, fires at least 4 x BVR + 4 x WVR missiles, climbs at 40000-50000 feet/min, and makes its own decisions during battle. Right now even USA has no such machine in production so what are you expecting from HESA? trust me we might see Iranian air-to-air specialized UCAV before we might see something similar from Russia. We have a larger more diverse fleet of MALE UCAVs than Russia after all.

As for the Kowsar production, we know there have been 18-24 airframes at HESA. If the target is to get 60 x Kowsar-1 fighters (5 fully equipped combat squadrons) then HESA has already worked upon 1/3 of the targetted numbers. Even if they get some 6-8/year airframes done by the 2023 year (quoting BT's estimate) 2023, the project will conclude in 2027. IRIAF will have ~160 x 4.0 generation BVR interceptors (F-14AM, MIG, Kowsar) + layered L/SH/ORAD + 300 MALE UCAVs for ELINT/SIGINT, PGM, and LACM strikes. Not a bad deal I say. If they manage to get SU-35S/J-10C or even some additional numbers of MIG-29M/MIG-35 then it will be an additional force multiplier. Farewell to F-7N, MirageF1, F-5E/F.



Decide for yourself.

1) Same number of T/R elements (300 each in ditto 12 rows)- Check
2) Same no. of antenna edges (12) - Check
3) Same processing and power unit size and design, even the lifting handles are dittos - Check
4) Same tracking range - Check
5) Same configuration Tracks 8, attacks 2 targets - Check
6) Same weight
7) Even the steering platform design is a ditto

View attachment 856258View attachment 856259

NRIET of China (a CATIC subsidiary for radars) copied some Grifo radar designs as dittos or they purchased them as TOT since Leonardo (makers of grifo) did not get their bids successful for these products sale, while CATIC already was in large contracts with rogue nations so Leonardo (Italy) technically got business through CATIC of China. Italians are tricky people. Hence:-

Grifo S becomes KLJ-7 on FC-1 Block I/II
Grifo 346 becomes KLJ-Whatever that got TOT-ed to IEI as Bayynet-II of Kowsar,
Grifo E becomes KLJ-7A AESA on FC-1 Blk III or Bayyenat-III for Kowsar-II (highly likely)

... or the Chinese stole the blueprints or copied them. We will never know.

Topic for another time but there is a ditto of Bayyenaat-I on upgraded F-4E of IRIAF in the PLAAF right now too.



Except that Kowsar is here and Qaher was Hassan Parvaneh + Ahmed Vahidi + Ahmadinejad's stupidity who decided to present a mockup concept (every other country did same) as an in-production fighter. Kowsar cant be compared to Qaher. Qaher will fly one day with modifications if the airframe design came from Shafagh's R&D between HESA and Mukhamedov OKB. If not then it won't.



Kowsar is not the future of IRIAF but it is ensuring there is a future. No light fighter is a future of any force like

Hurjet LCA is not the future of Turkish Hava Kuvvetleri, they want EF-2000
T-5 is not the future of Taiwanese AF, they are iducting more F-16
TEJAS is not the future for Indian AF, they are inducting Rafale @ ~130 Million USD per unit
FC-1 is not the future of Pak-AF , inducting J-10C + just purchased Mirage V for parts
T-7 is not the future of Swedish/Austrailian AF, they are chasing 5th gen
T-50 is not the future of Korean or Indonesian AF, they are chasing 5th gen

I will call anyone who thinks Kowsar is the answer to IRIAF's aging fleet a stupid person. Like I said before do not see this as a product, I see it as an achieved industrial capability that will initially give a 60-70 electronically advanced BVR capable interceptors as stop gap while we have nothing else. The same capability in 2-3 years can evolve (high likely it will) into a much better "product" that will be Kowsar-II. Even if it wont, the current capability can provide the much needed extensive upgrade to MIG Fleet or may arm the future A2A-UCAV.

I know who EvilWesterner is. I have talked to him before. I have talked to you/other members as well on IDF/IMF. IMF is gone but some of my predictions have exactly true e.g

I predicted Zoljanah (Sejjil derivative SLV) in 2012/13 when people called me silly because we only knew our tested Safir SLV. I also predicted Hawk based genuine production of a local AIM-54 and we have Fakour-90. I also predicted future IRIAF+IRGC-AF fleet of some 300-400 HALE/MALE UCAVs. We have that now.

My current predictions (based upon logic and published articles) in a few years are:

4+ or 4++ gen Kowsar-II
Sejjil based MaRV-ICBMs
Bavar 373 becomes equivalent to S-500
Stealth Shahed 171 into IRIAF
Air to Air UCAV with WVR missiles
KAMAN-22/FOTROS/GAZA with SIGINT/ELINT roles
Unveiling of Iranian possession of initially 8-10 mid to low yield Fission devices.
IRIN/IRGCN UCAV Carriers

 

[Hack-Hook]

I will call anyone who thinks Kowsar is the answer to IRIAF's aging fleet a stupid person. Like I said before do not see this as a product, I see it as an achieved industrial capability that will initially give a 60-70 electronically advanced BVR capable interceptors as stop gap while we have nothing else. The same capability in 2-3 years can evolve (high likely it will) into a much better "product" that will be Kowsar-II. Even if it wont, the current capability can provide the much needed extensive upgrade to MIG Fleet or may arm the future A2A-UCAV.

depend on definition of light fighter, if defense ministry invest in it and increase the size around 10% (probably its not even needed if they make it single seat just some modification to the wing) it will become in size of pretty much serious Light-Medium fighter like Gripen
Length: 14.6876 m vs 15.2 m
Wingspan : 8.13 m vs 8.6 m
Height: 4.077 m vs 4.5 m
the plan is one of the few plane which actually can have supercruise with full load

so the size is not that important they are nearly the same , and Gripen is future of one of European country air force which didn't neglected its army and other NATO members do anything to convince them become a member.
I believe size is not the problem what you put inside the fighter is important .

Migoyan has been struggling for some time because of a lack of exports and they were recently merged with Sukhoi so they should be eager for anything that comes their way, including upgrading Iran's MIGs. Either that or Iran can upgrade them with Chinese technology.

upgrade 20-23 mig-29 for what purpose , the upgrade package available is already outdated ,what we need acquiring modern subsystem that we can't produce ,not full airplane or whipping already dead horses

As for new fighters, it's either Flankers from Russia or J-10s from China from what I've read.

its neither any one of them , it will be a domestically produced airplane with some imported component and be assured it will be light to medium in size not heavy fighter

 

[MMCM]

With the current political tensions between Russia/China and the west, it's more likely than ever that Iran will be able to procure vital parts & components in order to upgrade its fleet of aging MIGs.

Migoyan has been struggling for some time because of a lack of exports and they were recently merged with Sukhoi so they should be eager for anything that comes their way, including upgrading Iran's MIGs. Either that or Iran can upgrade them with Chinese technology.

As for new fighters, it's either Flankers from Russia or J-10s from China from what I've read.