IRIAF | News and Discussions

[Cancerous Tumor]

USSR got license of DC-3 and built ~6000 home made version of it Li-2.
At best it had 4000 kg capacity.

Iran got license of An-140 and built less than 10 ? and we don't have made in Iran anything related for cargo or passengers.

In paper Iran-140 looks so fancy but in production numbers something like DC-3 is still the king .20 Vs 7000

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

On issue of fuel consumption and $110 per barrel of oil going back to turboprop era might be the solution .

 

[lydian fall]

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538904474680532992

 

[drmeson]

Something really good is happening. Seems like in the end IRIAF/IRGCF will end up with one type of avionics set by IEI for the entire fleet.

In 2030s there will be an IRIAF fleet of:

~30 x Yasin AT
~160-170 x Kowsar-I/II
~120 x SU-35 + MIG29/35 + F-14AM
~300 x HALE/MALE UCAVS including SIGINT/ELINT, PGM carrier, low RCS Air to Air Wingmen

All of these except the Russian fleet will have a local IEI SAIRAN package of Radar-NAV-COMM-eWarfare package. And training on that will start from Yasin AT. Now here is something interesting. OWJ is a small engine with a low fuel consumption rate so IRIAF pilots esp the ones who will be going from Yasin AT to Kowsar-I/II will be having something around 240+ hours of yearly training on the same Bayyenat-II in Kowsar-I/Yasin AT or future Bayyenat-III (might be AESA) in Kowsar-II + SAIRAN e-Warfare suite that some 200 planes in IRIAF will be carrying at that time. These men will train in integrated battle groups unmanned wingmen and datalinked to A/GWACS system that is already in place. All of these platforms will be local with same sub-systems. This is one of the most important things to build an air arm where commonality is the key instead of an isolated batch of 60 pilots for useless MIRAGE and then 100 more for even more Junk F-7N.

Seeing Yasin AT and Kowsar-I even western experts like David Ceniotti (I think him or someone else) said that these systems will train the entire future generation of IRIAF aviators, laying the foundation of future combat aviation of Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538904474680532992

Q: How do you keep a flying box like F-4 E/D/R in a stable flight ?

A: You dont.

 

[drmeson]

I swear they must have prop airframes they drag out for each President to make a photo op.

We know the production rate of Kowsar is very low, yet every president takes a picture in front of like 4-6 unfinished airframes.

So I did some research and I found that you are factually wrong.

I will explain how ...

From the floor of HESA's assembly line, 4 sets of photos have come out since the time of unvieling.

(1) Unveiling = 1 Flew (3-7400) + 6 under construction = 3-7164, 3-7180, 3-7304, 3-7330, 3-7XXX, 3-7YYY
(2) Visit by Defence Min. Ashtiani => 12 total
(3) Visit by Raisi => 6 total [5 in yellow primer and two in blue]
(4) Aerial maneuvers: 3 x (3-7400, 3-7164, and 3-7180) performed Aerial maneuvers which along with another are reported in 2020 at TAB-2 for evaluation.

So what are we left with?

(1) Unveiling = 3 left including 3-7304 and 3-7330 that are already painted in blue carrying pylons
(2) Visit by Defence Min. Ashtiani => 11-12 total
(3) Visit by Raisi => 6 total

Even with extreme level economical guess here that Raisi's 6 are just the ones out of Ashtiani's 12 then are at least 18 airframes that have been present on the HESA floors since the unveiling. The highest estimate could be as high as 24 if we assume that all the batches showed different ones but I will rely upon the former.

4 at TAB-2 Evaluation [3-7400, 3-7164, 3-7400, 3-7180]
2 x weapon testing (3-7304 and 3-7330)
12 airframes currently in primer

Your claim of 6 airframes was funny at best

 

[TheImmortal]

So I did some research and I found that you are factually wrong.

I will explain how ...

From the floor of HESA's assembly line, 4 sets of photos have come out since the time of unvieling.

(1) Unveiling = 1 Flew (3-7400) + 6 under construction = 3-7164, 3-7180, 3-7304, 3-7330, 3-7XXX, 3-7YYY
(2) Visit by Defence Min. Ashtiani => 12 total
(3) Visit by Raisi => 6 total [5 in yellow primer and two in blue]
(4) Aerial maneuvers: 3 x (3-7400, 3-7164, and 3-7180) performed Aerial maneuvers which along with another are reported in 2020 at TAB-2 for evaluation.

So what are we left with?

(1) Unveiling = 3 left including 3-7304 and 3-7330 that are already painted in blue carrying pylons
(2) Visit by Defence Min. Ashtiani => 11-12 total
(3) Visit by Raisi => 6 total

Even with extreme level economical guess here that Raisi's 6 are just the ones out of Ashtiani's 12 then are at least 18 airframes that have been present on the HESA floors since the unveiling. The highest estimate could be as high as 24 if we assume that all the batches showed different ones but I will rely upon the former.

4 at TAB-2 Evaluation [3-7400, 3-7164, 3-7400, 3-7180]
2 x weapon testing (3-7304 and 3-7330)
12 airframes currently in primer

Your claim of 6 airframes was funny at best

So since 2018 Kowsar unveiling almost 4 years ago we have:

6 built Kowsars of which most (if not all) are according to you....prototype testing models to make sure the test bed is sound for various tasks.

And we have 12 still being built (primer).

So if we take your numbers then production is at a rate of either 18/4 = ~4.5 per year or if we take out the prototypes 12/4 = ~3 per year. If we only account for what is actually 100% built then the number drops even further.

Sounds pretty much in line with other earlier generations/iterations of this test bed project.

I know you are overly optimistic about this project (even going so far as to assume a Iranian BVR is being built for it), but the numbers don’t lie. Iranian Air Force is not aggressively pursuing this project.

Syria desperately needs such a plane to revitalize its Air Force. Iraq could also use such a plane along with Venezuela. Yet not a single agreement has been signed even though at unveiling (or shortly there after) they said they had agreements with other nations for export.

 

[drmeson]

So since 2018 Kowsar unveiling almost 4 years ago we have:

6 built Kowsars of which most (if not all) are according to you....prototype testing models to make sure the test bed is sound for various tasks.

And we have 12 still being built (primer).

So if we take your numbers then production is at a rate of either 18/4 = ~4.5 per year or if we take out the prototypes 12/4 = ~3 per year. If we only account for what is actually 100% built then the number drops even further.

- These are not my numbers (I have no inside scoop or anything), this is what the math adds up to. At least 18 airframes have been on HESA floors out of which 4 have been undergoing actual evaluation.

This is based upon the "economical guess" that Raisi-visit's 6 x shown, were among the Ashtiani-visit's 12. If they were different then there have been 24 but my guess is 18 airframes so far.

Sounds pretty much in line with other earlier generations/iterations of this test bed project.

Not exactly

- 6 x Azarakhash were re-built from 1997-2001. That's 6 testbeds/4 years.

- 5 x Saeqeh-I and 1 x Saeqeh-II were built between 2004 to 2015. That is 6 testbeds/9 years.

- Kowsar-I figures are 18 Aircrafts/4 years = 4.5 aircraft per year. That's far better number.

I know you are overly optimistic about this project (even going so far as to assume a Iranian BVR is being built for it), but the numbers don’t lie.

I am not optimistic at all. I am optimistic for next-generation based upon the simple fact that we now know Iran can build a proper 4.0 generation light combat aircraft from scratch on its soil without outside partnerships or anything. If the next generation will be better than the current one then IRIAF's future is bright at-least for interception. That is what I am optimistic about.

My own guess is that Kowsar-I is what F-2 was for Japan or FCK-1 for Taiwan. An odd 90-100 airframes gave birth to the indigenous fighter aircraft industry that now has given them X-2/F-X.

even going so far as to assume a Iranian BVR is being built for it

I NEVER said that. You are more than welcome to provide evidence otherwise.

I think you may have read my post on an ARH-guided 200 KM range-bearing BVR missile "Maghsoud" being built at Babaei Missile Industries. That is Fakour-90's 2nd generation for F-14AM or possibly Bayyenat-I carrying F-4E fleet (long shot). According to Key-aero, ~100-120 x Fakour-90 have already been built and are fully operationalized/tested to extremes (track-lock on 0.001 m2 RCS of Shahed 191) and the project has concluded. Now Maghsoud is on verge of being tested by F-14AM. Kowsar can not carry such a heavy missile.

Only Iranian A2A weapon that Kowsar-I can carry is an All-aspect IR guided Fatter from same Babaei Missile Industry. It has the aerodynamics of AIM-9P but the seeker/motor are local. This is it in its maritime SHORAD role.

If this generation or the next one gets more operationalized then we "may" see PL-12/PL-15 on them because Bayyenat-II's tracking range is that long to use such BVR missiles.

Syria desperately needs such a plane to revitalize its Air Force. Iraq could also use such a plane along with Venezuela. Yet not a single agreement has been signed even though at unveiling (or shortly there after) they said they had agreements with other nations for export.

I have thought of the same. But these airforces have never ever used anything similar before and Syrian Arab AF's history of procurement from Moscow is better than IRIAF. Although I would want HESA to gain battle testing experiences to improve the next gen. How does its radar and ECM fare during CAPs on the border? How active is the RWR/MAWS? Can they track-lock on F-16i/15 from BVR ranges etc similar to how Qiam-1's got tested in hands of Houthis resulting in a new MaRV installation practice for Missiles forces.

As for the trade agreements, I think they specifically used the names "China and Russia". Which IMO could be the import of some combat Tech like missiles or modern ECM pod (We only have Shahin DASH ECM pod right now) which even KAMAN-22 UCAV carry. Topic for another time but I think Kaman-22 may end up as a SIGINT/ELINT platform.

 

[TheImmortal]

- 6 x Azarakhash were re-built from 1997-2001. That's 6 testbeds/4 years.

- 5 x Saeqeh-I and 1 x Saeqeh-II were built between 2004 to 2015. That is 6 testbeds/9 years.

- Kowsar-I figures are 18 Aircrafts/4 years = 4.5 aircraft per year. That's far better number.

Where do the Saeqeh numbers come from? If I recall correctly at least 1-2 squadrons were built between the two generations.

Also you just showed 25 years of tinkering with the F-5 with less than 17 total aircraft built (if your guesses are correct)

Meanwhile Turkey is already moving on to UAV jet fighter alongside their 5th Gen program.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538600873563246593

Now we know the Turks like to exaggerate and probably engage in propaganda more than any other nation in the Middle East. But one can see why IRIAF is not heavily invested in Kowsar. We can blame lack of funding (probably true) we can blame lack of mass production facilities (also true) and we can blame mentality shift of not viewing IRIAF as critical to overall defense. Nonetheless, at the end of the day when Iran puts its mind to something (Bavar-373) (RQ-170 reverse engineering) it is able to turn a project into reality on a timeline similar to Western armies.

If Kowsar ment to be some avionics suite for a future fighter, the avionics aren’t that advanced. Certainly not a 4++ in its current format. To me the project has always been “if it’s 2040 and all our planes are grounded and Russia and China refuse to sell us anything can we at least produce something to keep the skies with aircraft”. That and a F-5 modernization program similar to Karrar for Iran’s extensive amount of T-72 tanks supply.

Now here is another idea, why not make Kowsar II a drone? The removal of the pilot section will allow for bigger radar and more fuel. The reduction of support systems will lighten the aircraft and possibly allow heavier avionics suite and weapons layout.

To me that would make a little bit more sense at this point. Personally I been calling for a delta wing or flying wing UAV bomber similar to Sofreh Mahi mixed with RQ-170. But a pilotless Kowsar would be a nice step.

 

[drmeson]

Where do the Saeqeh numbers come from? If I recall correctly at least 1-2 squadrons were built between the two generations.

(I will type the reply to the rest of your post tomorrow)

Serials

Saegheh-I (6)

3-7366 (Ist-Prototype, Squared Air-intakes, Elongated nose)
3-7367
3-7368
3-7369
3-7370
3-7371

Saegheh-II (1)

3-7182 (Ist-Prototype, Same cockpit layout as Kowsar)

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

You are mistaken again

Kowsar's figure is at least 24 and +

 

[Hack-Hook]

~30 x Yasin AT
~160-170 x Kowsar-I/II
~120 x SU-35 + MIG29/35 + F-14AM
~300 x HALE/MALE UCAVS including SIGINT/ELINT, PGM carrier, low RCS Air to Air Wingmen

honestly can't see the point of Yasin if we are going to invest in Kowsar, Kowsar in every metric is better than Yasin . if our pilots are going to fly Kowsar just make a trainer version of the damn aircraft , why build another airplane with different aerodynamic and train them with that airplane .
and I don't bet anything on Su-35 or Mig-35.
and hope along those UAVs , we are gong to send two dozen communication satellite into space

 

[Hack-Hook]

the only feasible use for Yasin in Iran is as the same role as Su-25 and for that they need to add armor to the airplane and a lot of it and for that they need to increase engine power several fold , otherwise the airplane don't have any meaningful purpose

 

[TheImmortal]

the only feasible use for Yasin in Iran is as the same role as Su-25 and for that they need to add armor to the airplane and a lot of it and for that they need to increase engine power several fold , otherwise the airplane don't have any meaningful purpose

Yasin was attempt to build Yak-130 class fighter jet. Another test bed project that couldn’t get green light by IRIAF or get proper funding (or both).

 

[Hack-Hook]

Yasin was attempt to build Yak-130 class fighter jet. Another test bed project that couldn’t get green light by IRIAF or get proper funding (or both).

It seems IRIAF greenlighted work on F-5 and their plan is to achieve something like F-20 or F-18 . honestly with their limited budget and resources working on anything else is irrational.

For trainer they must use the same platform and For CAS, well to be honest I believe they must give that role to Army and Navy aviation and they must design some drone or helicopter for themselves