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I honestly just cant see whats in it for iran,either economically or politically.Any deals that it could do with the ukraine would be literally chicken-feed penny-ante bullsh!t compared to what they can potentially get from the russians.And thats without the obvious fact of the ukraine being a nato ally,and of course the wests own political problems with iran.
It just makes no sense for iran to do that from any angle I`m afraid.
Iran can benefit by keeping the war going arming both sides.

I think that the only way this sort of thing might [possibly] happen is if there were multiple front companies and middlemen involved who could obscure both the [actual] supplier and the [real] end user.
The BIG problem tho,is that in this day in age with things like social media,all that it takes is a few photos posted online and BANG there goes your whole clever shell game.


But what would iran get out of such an arrangement?
The fact is that russia just has more to offer iran than the ukraine does.
Russia doesn't really have a choice now in the war. They need all they can get. You can arm Ukraine and Russia can't do anything about it.
 
That's non sense. Don't fall for it, Iran is not going to arm clown led Ukraine.

Iran like Russia has nothing to lose, Europe has been a US pet for long, why would Iran hesitate to arm Russian ground forces? Why should Iran try to appease European pets?

Russia is the only European country to be trusted. Others are occupied and or ruled by liberals.
 
I understand what you’re saying. It just seems so antithetical to both IRI’s character and current strategy.

It doesn’t have to be that deep.

Given your argument, are you saying the IRI is actively engaging both sides (albeit with varying degrees) OR Iran’s military industrial complex has un/consciously involved itself with these merchants? I can rationalize the latter more easily. But even that I find it hard to fathom anything more than a one time slip that’s been capped….?

I would say it’s that latter. Iran’s military industrial complex is vast and complex. Greater than Israeli military complex in size. Biggest in Middle East. Might even be a top 3 military complex if we exclude China and US ‘superpowers’.

As of right now International arms dealers and 3rd party countries are scouring the globe for ammo as Ukraine (thru NATO/US wallets) is paying top dollar.

Iranian arms factory can sell to 3rd party dealer and have plausible deniability where the arms end up. Again these are not “game changing arms” that require SNSC approval. They are mortars, artillery shells, grenades, etc.

Now it’s quite possible eventually SNSC and leadership put a stop to this or maybe you are right it’s a few deals lost among hundreds….a “rounding error” on a balance sheet that won’t get spotted.

Also, given the above, can’t these pictures be of ‘acquired’ Iranian equipment intended for less nefarious reasons like supporting allies?

Unlikely as the only ally using that type of ammo (Syria) hasn’t lost territory and ammo to Syria rarely gets confiscated as it arrives by air. Nor have Russians been spotted with Iranian artillery based ammo.

Or why can’t we dismiss all of the above and just call these equipment fake or doctored?

Also unlikely as even the shells are in Iranian style labeling and coding. It’s more than painting a box a certain way. Not to mention the pay off of such a psych operation is dubious at best. Waste of resources.

Russia has few allies around the world willing to supply them with arms, for better or worse they need Iran. Who else will supply Russia?

When Russians knew of Israeli strikes ahead of time and would evacuate joint bases in Syria, did Iran break ties with Russians over that? Of course not. Same reasoning applies here. They are bedfellows whether they like it or not in both theaters. Strategic Allies they are not, although they have made tremendous improvements in that direction, they are still short of an alliance.
 

Said Vatandust of Shaffaf TV concludes that reports on supposed Iranian arms fielded by the Ukrainian military are psy-ops taking aim at the Iranian-Russian partnership.

Producing exact copies (in appearance) of Iranian artillery shells isn't a complicated task for a regime with a defence budget of 816,7 billion USD, whose 16 intelligence agencies receive additional tens of billions. A Hollywood special effects team could do the job, let alone their military and intelligence services.

Concerning the cost-benefit of such an undertaking: given the volume of resources at their disposal, and the fact that they're spending many millions on anti-Iran propaganda already, the expenditure for them will be insignificant and it would pay off the moment a considerable enough portion of the Iranian and/or Russian public start believing in the authenticity of the news. If Russian government officials were persuaded, Washington would get the most out of it. It's because of western propaganda, relayed domestically by the liberal fifth column of reformists and moderates, that some Iranians were seen shouting "down with Russia, down with China". Attempts to undermine relations between Iran and her allies or partners have consistently ranked among the USA regime's top foreign policy priorities in West Asia. Given how important this is to them, they will not be hesitant to allocate generous funding.

This evolution has led to murmurs of concern inside Iran, with some fearing that the government made a significant error by throwing its lot in with an untrustworthy Russian partner. Although these voices have so far been isolated, Western governments should feed this doubt as part of their strategy to curb Iran’s military aid.

In the same manner, western regimes are seeking to generate doubt about Iran's reliability among Russians.

In Syria, Russia can at best be blamed for negligence in the face of zionist strikes on real or imaginary Resistance targets. Failure to intercept an aggressor's fighter jets or to provide timely warning isn't the same as active arming of a belligerent in an ongoing, 'hot' shooting war. The degree of responsibility is different. Hence the impact on mutual relations with Russia would be greater if Iran was truly arming the Ukrainians. Wouldn't make sense from the Iranian perspective to engage in such while at the same putting efforts into enhancing ties with Moscow the way Iran's been doing as of late.

On a terminological note, when it comes to Iran I don't think the term military-industrial complex can apply. The term usually implies private ownership of major corporations in the defence sector, to which defence contractors may be added. It essentially describes a conglomerate of actors with strong vested interests, acting autonomously in pursuit of said interests. In Iran this isn't the case since defence industries are controlled by the government and they do not exert influence on public policy. Among other things, this explains why the American military industry is so unbelievably wasteful in contrast to the Iranian one.
 
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I’m cautiously optimistic.

The single biggest determinant to an Iranian attack helicopter and Iranian transport helicopter has been lack of domestic production of a viable engine.

If Russia can provide Iran with ToT and a decent design for joint production then it’s a very mutual beneficial relationship. Iran currently is far ahead of Russia in PGM munitions for its choppers. Even in electronics/subsystems it is catching up to Russia. So iran can lead production capability in this field in exchange of engine knowledge and production.

Time will tell if this agreement bears fruit or if we get another Shafaq and Russian cold feet
 
This is why Iranian artillery shells are so desperately sought - and why Iranian arms factories (and the factions that control them) are so tempted to cash in on an lucrative opportunity

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The token income from limited quantities of artillery shells wouldn't be worth the damage it'd cause to the strategic partnership with Russia, whose windfall is incomparable in benefits including economic ones. Iranian decision makers aren't likely to engage in such self-contradicting policy making.

Moreover, Russian failure in Ukraine is not in Iran's interest, the opposite is true. It's welcome news for Iran that the common enemy, NATO, is struggling to feed Ukraine with Soviet / Russian type shells. Iran would want it to stay this way.

In Iran no actor can sell weapons against government guidelines and exports are tightly controlled. In contrast to the USA, earnings from such transactions go to the Iranian government rather than to special interest groups. Hence why reports of Iranian munition sales to Ukraine aren't credible.
 
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The token income from limited quantities of artillery shells wouldn't be worth the damage it'd cause to the strategic partnership with Russia, whose windfall is incomparable in benefits including economic ones. Iranian decision makers aren't likely to engage in such self-contradicting policy making.

Moreover, Russian failure in Ukraine is not in Iran's interest, the opposite is true. It's welcome news for Iran that the common enemy, NATO, is struggling to feed Ukraine with Soviet / Russian type shells. Iran would want it to stay this way.

In Iran no actor can sell weapons against government guidelines and exports are tightly controlled. In contrast to the USA, earnings from such transactions go to the Iranian government rather than to special interest groups. Hence why reports of Iranian munition sales to Ukraine aren't credible.

I agree. However, it can’t be denied given the size of Iran’s military industrial complex the worms might have burrowed through here and there. If so, I hope it’s capped and cutoff entirely.

As for the ‘Iran playing both sides’ narrative, it’s naive. Data proves that both culturally and historically. That’s a western narrative. Iran picks partners very carefully and once chosen is an indispensable partner in return.
 
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Hence why reports of Iranian munition sales to Ukraine aren't credible.

You clearly don’t realize how arms sales work. They are not always country to country. In many cases they are country to 3rd party (international arms dealers).

Movies like War Dogs and Lord of War (loosely based on Russian international arms dealer that just got released) show you how easy it is for 3rd parties to procure small arms from various countries including so called ‘hostile’ ones.

Iran’s military industrial complex is in hands of IRGC. It’s a massive complex, 100,000 shells could disappear and no one in “leadership” that you refer to would know. That’s how much arms Iran produces. There is not “tight export” controls when IRGC controls the factory, the airport, and its own airlines. Iran is a factional republic, not this top down Kim Jung Un Hermit Kingdom you like to refer to for decision making.

In Libya, we saw Iranian arms show up (Iranian TOW being one example) but in very few quantities. This make sense as it’s a conflict that doesn’t generate Iran any real benefit and majority of arms sales are won by Turkish/Arab countries.

In Ukraine we have seen a mixture of what is likely seized Iranian arms in transit to Yemen and elsewhere alongside a peculiar amount of mortars and artillery shells some of which are not even in Iranian export catalogs or production was said to have stopped entirely and phased out. This is strange and requires closer look at.

Lastly your romanticization of the Russians needs to stop.

These are the same Russians who have the blood of many Shia militia fighters and Iranians on their hands answering Zionist hotline calls in syria and being a compliance of the destruction of Iranians and Shia personnel as we all as weapons via Israeli air strikes. Not to mention the Russian attempt to boot Iranians out of South Syria border regions to please Israeli demands.

Thus as far as things are considered old debts have not been settled. Iranians come first then Russians.

Time will tell if these arms sales are one off or a trend. After all many of these arms were built within last 6-9 months, a clear indicator of a factory received order sent from a foreign client.
 
You clearly don’t realize how arms sales work. They are not always country to country. In many cases they are country to 3rd party (international arms dealers).

Movies like War Dogs and Lord of War (loosely based on Russian international arms dealer that just got released) show you how easy it is for 3rd parties to procure small arms from various countries including so called ‘hostile’ ones.

Iran’s military industrial complex is in hands of IRGC. It’s a massive complex, 100,000 shells could disappear and no one in “leadership” that you refer to would know. That’s how much arms Iran produces. There is not “tight export” controls when IRGC controls the factory, the airport, and its own airlines. Iran is a factional republic, not this top down Kim Jung Un Hermit Kingdom you like to refer to for decision making.

In Libya, we saw Iranian arms show up (Iranian TOW being one example) but in very few quantities. This make sense as it’s a conflict that doesn’t generate Iran any real benefit and majority of arms sales are won by Turkish/Arab countries.

In Ukraine we have seen a mixture of what is likely seized Iranian arms in transit to Yemen and elsewhere alongside a peculiar amount of mortars and artillery shells some of which are not even in Iranian export catalogs or production was said to have stopped entirely and phased out. This is strange and requires closer look at.

Lastly your romanticization of the Russians needs to stop.

These are the same Russians who have the blood of many Shia militia fighters and Iranians on their hands answering Zionist hotline calls in syria and being a compliance of the destruction of Iranians and Shia personnel as we all as weapons via Israeli air strikes. Not to mention the Russian attempt to boot Iranians out of South Syria border regions to please Israeli demands.

Thus as far as things are considered old debts have not been settled. Iranians come first then Russians.

Time will tell if these arms sales are one off or a trend. After all many of these arms were built within last 6-9 months, a clear indicator of a factory received order sent from a foreign client.

On your point about the romanticizing of the Russian Federation, I think you make an important point. Whilst Iran’s support for Russia is principally sound and aligns with general anti-Western policy, that still doesn’t completely wash away the past between two countries.

You think there might be too much of a “well things are completely different, now we are friends” type of mentality?
 
As for the ‘Iran playing both sides’ narrative, it’s naive. Data proves that both culturally and historically. That’s a western narrative. Iran picks partners very carefully and once chosen is an indispensable partner in return.
Fully agree...Iran will not knowingly do such thing on principal alone...In any case the Intelligence agencies of both countries already have looked at such things and cleared the issue between them..
 
You clearly don’t realize how arms sales work. They are not always country to country. In many cases they are country to 3rd party (international arms dealers).

Movies like War Dogs and Lord of War (loosely based on Russian international arms dealer that just got released) show you how easy it is for 3rd parties to procure small arms from various countries including so called ‘hostile’ ones.

If a third party re-sold Iranian munitions to Ukraine, it happened without Iran's prior knowledge. Iran is not deliberately going to arm a country Russia is at war with.

Iran’s military industrial complex is in hands of IRGC. It’s a massive complex, 100,000 shells could disappear and no one in “leadership” that you refer to would know. That’s how much arms Iran produces. There is not “tight export” controls when IRGC controls the factory, the airport, and its own airlines. Iran is a factional republic, not this top down Kim Jung Un Hermit Kingdom you like to refer to for decision making.

The term military-industrial complex is not appropriate here. Iran's military industries are not acting according to their corporate special interests, nor are they lobbying political decision makers to this effect.

Also, factional politics doesn't imply that said factions could do as they please. Making 100.000 shells disappear is an off limit consideration. There's effective central state control over defense and military matters.

The IRGC in particular has no interest in jeopardizing Iran's strategic partnership with Russia, in exchange for a minor arms sale. It too benefits much more from a stable relationship with Moscow.

In Ukraine we have seen a mixture of what is likely seized Iranian arms in transit to Yemen and elsewhere alongside a peculiar amount of mortars and artillery shells some of which are not even in Iranian export catalogs or production was said to have stopped entirely and phased out. This is strange and requires closer look at.

There's no evidence Iran sold these to Ukraine. Such a move would run counter to Iranian policy as we know it.

On the other hand, it's a documented fact that the USA regime is going out of its way to try and sabotage the slightest semblance of cooperation between Iran and any other party, especially Russia. Fake news about supposed Iranian arms supplies to Kiev perfectly fit this strategy.

These are the same Russians who have the blood of many Shia militia fighters and Iranians on their hands answering Zionist hotline calls in syria and being a compliance of the destruction of Iranians and Shia personnel as we all as weapons via Israeli air strikes.

As said, refraining from downing an aggressor's fighter jets is not quite in the same category as deliberately arming a party someone's in a hot shooting war with.

Very few Iranians were martyred in zionist strikes on Syrian territory, even though Tel Aviv would like us to believe otherwise.

Not to mention the Russian attempt to boot Iranians out of South Syria border regions to please Israeli demands.

What attempts would these be, and when did they take place?

Thus as far as things are considered old debts have not been settled. Iranians come first then Russians.

If such were the case, the Supreme Leader would speak in quite different terms during his last meeting with President Putin.

Time will tell if these arms sales are one off or a trend. After all many of these arms were built within last 6-9 months, a clear indicator of a factory received order sent from a foreign client.

Proof would need to be provided that these are real rounds made in Iran (they're easy to fake), and then that Iran sold anything to Ukraine. Pictures released by the regime in Kiev aren't conclusive onto themselves.
 
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Another one from the "friendly folks" at the 💩 washington institute💩....

After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
 
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If a third party re-sold Iranian munitions to Ukraine, it happened without Iran's prior knowledge. Iran is not deliberately going to arm a country Russia is at war with.

“Prior knowledge” “deliberately” is very vague.

If an arms dealer asks an Iranian factory for a specific type of ammunition (one that is not in export catalog and one that Syria to my knowledge doesn’t use) then said factory would have to be extremely naive to not know who the end client is.

If anyone has experience in 3rd party front company transactions it’s Iran. That’s literally how Iran scours the globe for various goods/components.

The term military-industrial complex is not appropriate here. Iran's military industries are not acting according to their corporate special interests, nor are they lobbying political decision makers to this effect.

It is appropriate. At international Arms shows there’s Iranian companies just like any other country. Or do you naively miss all the advertisement Iran does at these shows? Iran has gone on record trying to be a major export country for weapons.

Said factories build per contracts and If they didn’t go by contracts and interest then you would be correct.
Also, factional politics doesn't imply that said factions could do as they please. Making 100.000 shells disappear is an off limit consideration. There's effective central state control over defense and military matters.

These are IRGC companies, IRGC can decide who they sell too. SNSC has IRGC aligned representatives. It is not as black and white as you like to make it seem.

If you did business transactions in Iran you would realize this.

The IRGC in particular has no interest in jeopardizing Iran's strategic partnership with Russia, in exchange for a minor arms sale. It too benefits much more from a stable relationship with Moscow.

There is no evidence of strategic relationship just words. I’m cautiously optimistic with the recent trends, but calling it strategic is premature. And Russia cannot do a damn thing to Iran. We are its only friendly country willing to supply anything. Even China has turned its back on military arms.

How is the 25 year ‘strategic’ deal with China going? Still waiting for those results. Let’s not call anything strategic anymore till the results appear.

There's no evidence Iran sold these to Ukraine. Such a move would run counter to Iranian policy as we know it.

There is evidence. It’s pictures and videos. Unless you think CIA/MI6 went thru the painstakingly pointless process of copying Iranian munitions and posting it on social media so Russia would get ‘mad’ at Iran.

The ones you see is the a fraction of what is happening. Ukrainian armed forces are under a cell phone ban. Even posting videos of air strikes is punishable by law by civilians. Compare this to Russian especially Wagner forces that actively use there phones.

On the other hand, it's a documented fact that the USA regime is going out of its way to try and sabotage the slightest semblance of cooperation between Iran and any other party, especially Russia. Fake news about supposed Iranian arms supplies to Kiev perfectly fit this strategy.

Not fake news if there is corresponding video showing the munitions being taken out with their fuses. You have presented zero evidence that these are not Iranian arms, just conjecture.
Very few Iranians were martyred in Syria, even though zionists would like us to believe otherwise.

Off the top of my head: Two Iranian air defense officials were killed late last year. Last couple months a high ranking official was killed via roadside bomb. Maybe these mean nothing

Let’s not even talk about the T4 airbase attack back in the day.
Proof would need to be provided that these are real rounds made in Iran (they're easy to fake), and then that Iran sold anything to Ukraine. Pictures released by the regime in Kiev aren't conclusive onto themselves.

There are videos as well. And like I said plausible deniability on Iran’s part until the point you get where certain munitions are not in Iranian arms catlogs.

For example Iranian 122MM has been seen in Ukraine. Can you tell me which Iranian ally uses this munition? Syria? Yemen? PMUs? Not everything can be explained away via the “confiscated arms” excuse.

Iranian Grad rockets/152MM/122MM/mortars have all made it to Ukraine. And that is what some soldiers have actually videoed.
 

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