TheImmortal
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Literally no one said to invade AzerbaijanI do not see how everyone here is saying option 2 is the right approach
Literally no one said to invade Azerbaijan
In other news,
Russian strategic bombers used X-101 or Kh-101 missiles to target a dam in southern ukraine, destroying it. Surprisingly I did not expect cruise missiles to cause significant damaged to it, they are usually hard to destroy, but low and hold the dam (is still structurally in place) is opened due to the damage causing large floods.
then lets talk war business- you know the 1st ,main thing Iran will completely destroy in Azerbaijan? their oil and gas installations. No money first - poof!
excellent points......
...until right here.
NATO and US, fortunately or unfortunately, are too stretched and distracted by the Ukraine war. This is US of 2022, not US of 2005, no country opposing Russia in Ukraine can fight Russia in Ukraine AND support anti-iran operations in the middle east at the same time- you'd need an army the size of the Soviet Union to do that, because remember, tht army would need 200K- 500K soldiers ARMED, CLOSE AND READY, but how is that possible today when these same Bad-at-war NATO countries have already drained national ammunition stocks to fight for freedom in stupid Ukraine?
NATO forces today do not have combat readiness, i'm ready to bet money on that. after the hasty and loser exit from Afghanistan and into difficult Ukraine war?? GIMMME A BREAAK.
I Would actully love to see Iran open a front with Azerbaijan.. Within 24 hours War will be declared in Istanbul. The Turks will enter in a hasty fashion..
It will lead to quite a large regional war which I prefer it to happen but I don't think Iran will pursue it not atleast for decades from now...
But yes I welcome Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran war.. This could also open a window and opportunity to disarm Iran once and for all. Iran soil will be invaded in this scenario atleast for a 20-25% of it.
I know some Iranians will think oh well we are hercules and superman we have never experienced yada yada but on the contrary Iran has been the highway of Empires every single empire has gone thru it and conquered it taking at one point.. Perhaps the highway will be reopen again business as usual.. On average it happened every 3rd century
What a western stooge. He's probably more concerned about his bank accounts in London, New York and Switzerland. The best source for Armenia to acquire weapons is obviously Iran. Missiles, air defense systems, ATGMs, UAVs. But of course he won't go against his masters orders.
Massive protests against Pashinyan. Apparently he wants to make more concessions to Azerbaijan. At this rate this stooge might as well give up Yerevan LOL
I Would actully love to see Iran open a front with Azerbaijan.. Within 24 hours War will be declared in Istanbul. The Turks will enter in a hasty fashion..
It will lead to quite a large regional war which I prefer it to happen but I don't think Iran will pursue it not atleast for decades from now...
But yes I welcome Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran war.. This could also open a window and opportunity to disarm Iran once and for all. Iran soil will be invaded in this scenario atleast for a 20-25% of it.
I know some Iranians will think oh well we are hercules and superman we have never experienced yada yada but on the contrary Iran has been the highway of Empires every single empire has gone thru it and conquered it taking at one point.. Perhaps the highway will be reopen again business as usual.. On average it happened every 3rd century
LOL First of all take a look at Turkey's economic situation. Inflation at over 100% and the Lira becoming more worthless by the day This is not one of your video games. Wars require massive amounts of funding. Turkey is currently broke, with empty pockets and friction in Syria, Libya and now Greece.
And how exactly do you intend on reaching Azerbaijan ? Turkey's only access is via a narrow mountain pass to the enclave of Nakhchivan. Meanwhile Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan's entire southern border shares long borders with Iran.
Iran has 150 km of access into Nakhchivan alone. Turkey doesn't even have 1 km. If Iran destroys that narrow mountain pass, which would be very easy with a few missiles, then how is Turkey going to access Nakhchivan ? Go through Iranian territory, through the mountains ? Yeah good luck with that.
Or go through Armenian territory where I'm sure your soldiers will be welcomed with open arms ? More than likely ambushed with ATGMs, mines and snipers without mercy before your army can get anywhere. Again good luck.
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Broadly I agree. But you don't address the elephant in the room which is possible loss of the Armenian border by Iran. if that is a real threat (I don't know given the propaganda from all sides) then it would leave Iran with no choice but at least have an incursion to maintain the corridor.If Azerbaijan is threatening Armenia and the Armenian Gouverment rejects any kind of help, than there is not much Iran can do. Its very bad to have weak neighbours. When I say "weak" I dont talk about the countrysize or economy...I talk about weak behaviour and character of political leaders.
Only Armenian people can change something at this moment. They should take this guy from power and replace him with a strong nationalist leader. Weak leaders are also no reliable partners for Iran.
Secondly: This Armenian president maybe feel secure with his appeacement policy. But fact is that any kind of weakness is considered by Armenias enemies to go one step further. Like an agressive dog who licked blood and wants more.
But as far as Armenian president continues his weak policy Iran should not intervene. I feel that the political leaders of Armenia expect others to fight for them because they dont believe in their own spirit.
Iran should not go into confict for a nation wich is not willing to fight for themselves.
If Iran would support armenia in a conflict. (directly or indirectly), Turkey could provide Supply threw Georgia or Air supply. May Iran and turkey , both would avoid a direct confict wich means Iran can not attack turkish supply.
If it's beneficial and ultimately necessary for Iran to conduct kinetic operations against assets in Azerbaijan. Then I think it would be worth while for I.R.I to explore their operations.
The problem with this is that we have a stable and working relationship with Turkey, not the best but still Iran and Turkey are benefitting from each other. Iran's relationship with Azerbaijan is at a lower level compared to the one with Turkey but still no open enmity.I favor sending significant arms to Armenia under a plausible deniability regime in order to minimize potential political fallout with Turkey and help restore Armenian territorial integrity to some appreciable degree. But Azerbaijan, knowing full well who is sending Armenia these major arms. Would be more emboldened to keep pushing Iran until some redline is crossed.
Game of chicken really...
IRGC would need to gauge the correct strike package that can accomplish mission goals without leading into a significant regional war. To be completely honest, any Iranian lead operation against Azerbaijan will open the flood gates and that'll be that.
I don't see how a highly militantly radical ethnocentric(somewhat) state like Pan-Turkish Azerbaijan is going to say "well, Iran is hitting us now. Better stop what we're doing". If anything, Israel/NATO/America will use this as an opportunity to form a new front against Tehran, this time right at home.