Iranian Chill Thread

[TheImmortal]

Agreed with second part as a possibility.
US will mock them if they explicitly receive Iranian drones. Implicitly covertly huh

Also agree with first part if it is the political wording only.

It’s not gonna happen. You don’t understand the Iranian calculus.

Even in IRGC there was opposing camps regarding supporting Assad during the war in the beginning. Some of IRGC camp wanted the government to negotiate with the USA on a replacement candidate a la Iraq.

So if even the IRGC is split in a national security scenario like Syria falling to the west. What makes you think they would support Russia politically or militarily for a conflict like Ukraine?

This war is incredibly toxic for any country to openly support Russia. Ukraine won the war of the hearts early on.

Supplying Ababil is political suicide as it can easily be identified as Iranian. It’s not like your are supplying motor rounds or artillery or items you can scrub the origin off of.

And thinking that Russia will give you AL-21 or RD-33 tech is hilarious. The trade off there is biased towards Iran by a factor of 100.

Other than that, Russia doesn’t have anything Iran truly wants enough to commit such political capital towards. Maybe a heavy helicopter engine tech. Everything else it can buy in a couple years when Russia is a pariah.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Even in IRGC there was opposing camps regarding supporting Assad during the war in the beginning. Some of IRGC camp wanted the government to negotiate with the USA on a replacement candidate a la Iraq.

Source?

 

[Shawnee]

It’s not gonna happen. You don’t understand the Iranian calculus.

Even in IRGC there was opposing camps regarding supporting Assad during the war in the beginning. Some of IRGC camp wanted the government to negotiate with the USA on a replacement candidate a la Iraq.

So if even the IRGC is split in a national security scenario like Syria falling to the west. What makes you think they would support Russia politically or militarily for a conflict like Ukraine?

This war is incredibly toxic for any country to openly support Russia. Ukraine won the war of the hearts early on.

Supplying Ababil is political suicide as it can easily be identified as Iranian. It’s not like your are supplying motor rounds or artillery or items you can scrub the origin off of.

And thinking that Russia will give you AL-21 or RD-33 tech is hilarious. The trade off there is biased towards Iran by a factor of 100.

Other than that, Russia doesn’t have anything Iran truly wants enough to commit such political capital towards. Maybe a heavy helicopter engine tech. Everything else it can buy in a couple years when Russia is a pariah.

Russia has a lot of stuff that Iran needs.

You can convince many IRGC general very well with good metallurgy/space techniques, not even a full RD33 tech transfer.

Guess who won the Iranian final decision in Syria. The tougher guys.
Reformists lost a lot after their promises did not come true due to Bush and Trump fking them bad.

What you call winning the heart of the world is called “US propaganda media” for IRGC officer, please

Source?

He is right. Most reformists plus some hardliners.

 

[Stryker1982]

And thinking that Russia will give you AL-21 or RD-33 tech is hilarious. The trade off there is biased towards Iran by a factor of 100.

The whole purpose of my post was to indicate Iran would never support Russia directly like this, if and only if they offer something huge in return, and I just layed out an example like RD-33 to illustrate the type of trade off that would be required for Iran to even consider military support to Russia. Which would have to be hugely in favor of Iran. 0.1% chance of this happening

He is right. Most reformists plus some hardliners.

Indeed I remember. Mostly in the Rouhani camp and a few others who were a bit fearful of getting involved. I assume it was Khamenei that gave the final green light to end the discussion

 

[SalarHaqq]

He is right. Most reformists plus some hardliners.

The claim was that there were opposing camps within the IRGC, with some wanting to negotiate with the US regime about a replacement for President Assad. To my knowledge this isn't factual, and I've never seen a source suggesting such a thing.

As for reformist, their opinion doesn't really matter when it comes to these types of critical, urgent strategic issues. The Supreme Leader and the revolutionary core of the system are the ones calling the shots in this regard. They never showed any signs of hesitation regarding the necessity to lend the Syrian government the support needed to ensure its survival. Iran never let down a strategic ally and never will.

 

[TheImmortal]

@Shawnee @Stryker1982

Im speaking specifically within the IRGC there was a divide. Forget Rouhani as he wasn’t even president when the civil war started. Forget the politicians.

It was in a documentary/interview of a IRGC commander speaking about the decision to enter Syria and how the entire West thought that Assad would fall quickly. Indeed the terrorists were within reach of his palace. Defections everywhere.

To emphasis how unlikely Assad’s survival was he said that some even within the IRGC thought the risk was too great for Iran to do such a operation. That it was hopeless to try to win the war and if they were to lose they would be worse off. Hence why they thought a negotiated settlement with US and the west would be better.

This commander was showing how it wasn’t guaranteed that success would happen and how difficult the odds were against them at the time and how even those in IRGC had doubts about the wisdom of such an operation.

I assume in the end Solemani and the more hardline commanders were able to convince the Supreme Leader they were up to the task as well as key factions within Iran (political) giving there blessing.

The claim was that there were opposing camps within the IRGC, with some wanting to negotiate with the US regime about a replacement for President Assad. That isn't factual, and there's no source suggesting such a thing.

I apologize I didn’t know you knew every source of information ever posted on the internet. I know what I watched given how borderline religiously I followed the war.

Wether you believe it or not is completely irrelevant.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Indeed I remember. Mostly in the Rouhani camp and a few others who were a bit fearful of getting involved.

The Rohani i.e. Rafsanjani camp wasn't fearful but outright opposed to involvement. See Rafsanjani's public speech blaming President Assad for the crisis and calling into question Iran's policy of supporting the Damascus government. However this western-apologetic camp doesn't get to decide on these sorts of topics, thank God.

I assume it was Khamenei that gave the final green light to end the discussion

Among factions and institutions that matter in this regard, there's no indication of such discussions taking place.

 

[Shawnee]

@Shawnee @Stryker1982

Im speaking specifically within the IRGC there was a divide. Forget Rouhani as he wasn’t even president when the civil war started. Forget the politicians.

It was in a documentary/interview of a IRGC commander speaking about the decision to enter Syria and how the entire West thought that Assad would fall quickly. Indeed the terrorists were within reach of his palace. Defections everywhere.

To emphasis how unlikely Assad’s survival was he said that some even within the IRGC thought the risk was too great for Iran to do such a operation. That it was hopeless to try to win the war and if they were to lose they would be worse off. Hence why they thought a negotiated settlement with US and the west would be better.

This commander was showing how it wasn’t guaranteed that success would happen and how difficult the odds were against them at the time and how even those in IRGC had doubts about the wisdom of such an operation.

I assume in the end Solemani and the more hardline commanders were able to convince the Supreme Leader they were up to the task as well as key factions within Iran (political) giving there blessing.



I apologize I didn’t know you knew every source of information ever posted on the internet. I know what I watched given how borderline religiously I followed the war.

Wether you believe it or not is completely irrelevant.

Those guys are even weaker now after Trump discredited Rouhani and anything moderate.

 

[SalarHaqq]

It was in a documentary/interview of a IRGC commander speaking about the decision to enter Syria and how the entire West thought that Assad would fall quickly. Indeed the terrorists were within reach of his palace. Defections everywhere.

He said that some in IRGC thought the risk was too great if Iran for Iran to do such a operation. That it was hopeless and if they were to lose they would be worse off. Hence why they thought a negotiated settlement with US and the west would be better.

This commander was showing how it wasn’t guaranteed that success would happen and how difficult the odds were against them at the time and how even those in IRGC had doubts about the wisdom of such an operation.

I assume in the end Solemani and the more hardline commanders were able to convince the Supreme Leader they were up to the task as well as key factions within Iran (political) giving there blessing.

What documentary would that be? Because I doubt anyone in the IRGC was seeking to negotiate with the US about a replacement for President Assad.

I didn’t know you knew every source of information ever posted on the internet.

Where did I say so? I'm asking for a source because the claim runs counter to the information I've seen, and to some established findings about the IRGC and Iranian policy.

I know what I watched given how borderline religiously I followed the war.

Wether you believe it or not is completely irrelevant.

You're making a claim, so I'd say it's incumbent upon you to back it up when doubts are expressed. Failing which it's basically a unsubstantiated claim, even if you followed the war in detail.

 

[TheImmortal]

I have no idea why you guys keep mentioning Rouhani.

Syrian civil war started March 2011 by the time Rouhani became president in fall of 2013 boots were already on the ground for sometime. Boots were on the ground nearly instantly in 2011 first it was riot control advisors and experts in putting down “color revolutions”. Then when it became full blown conflict the IRGC advisors arrived.

 

[SalarHaqq]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516144459012087813

Indeed there were reports in western propaganda media about Russia "running out" of missiles. But Russia's still using them on the battlefield. More self-defeating nonsense by NATO and their cronies.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516135660201320450

 

[Xerxes22]

Source?

His source : "Trust me bro. "

 

[Stryker1982]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...israel-if-it-acts-against-iranian-2022-04-18/

How to take this seriously when that structure on the airfield was (assumedly) attacked by quadcopters....

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

My prediction and I have already mentioned it in the past is that Iran has already made a modernized copy of the engine J79 for some time. As usual, Iran retains this type of announcement for later in time. It is my prediction based on intuition and observation