Russia has not even launched their new eastern push (offensive) yet. Despite this they currently control 95% or more of Lugansk. The only areas of the Donbas that remain in Ukrainian hands are western Donetsk. However the Russians forces on the ground are gaining ground, slowly but surely in a pincer like movement towards Kramatorsk (After they take it Zelensky will probably refer to it as as new massacre since it sounds like Crematorium, just like Bucha sounds like butcher in English)
In any case after Kramatorsk, the Donbas and Mariupol are fully liberated the Russians have 3 options
1) Go for Odessa to connect a land bridge to Transnistria (Moldova) where the people are majority extremely pro Russian. This way Ukraine will be completely physically cut off from the ocean
2) If the Ukrainians still don't want to stop fighting after that, they can take the highways up north and surround Kharkiv from all sides
3) Take the highways from Donetsk west and surround Dnipro
In the next few weeks the Ukrainians will be receiving an assortment of random weapons, new MRAPS from the UK and Australia (Mastiffs, Bushmasters), more MANPADS, ATGMs, small drones, etc as well as hand me down EU weapons from storage brought back to life: Leopard 1s, BMP-1s built in the 1960s and T-72s build in the 70s and 80s.
Of course some of these weapons will be destroyed on route. Yesterday Russia hit 300+ targets in Ukraine, but in any case it seems that the Ukrainians will not be satisfied until they've exhausted every option, including actually trying to take back territory from Russia with assortment of new (used) weapons
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Ukraine current situation as explained above. For a larger, more detailed map go to
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/16april2022_Ukraine_map.jpg?x41789
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Mariupol current situation. The Azov battalion (neo-Nazis) at the Azovstal plant are refusing the surrender, mostly hiding in underground tunnels. The Russians will most likely flood the tunnels to force them out.
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