Iranian Chill Thread

[HGV]

Unconfirmed reports that Biden is looking at ways to freeze $6 billion of Iranian assets held in Qatar.

The same $6 billion that was recently 'released' from Japan and now held in Qatari banks in escrow.

Would be a massive embarrassment for the Raisi administration if it happens.

Iran should arrest 100 more Iranian-Americans the next day if this is confirmed. Absolute treachery.

 

[TheImmortal]

what about that? Good against helicopters? Aircrafts?

https://nitter.net/DrazaM33/status/1711308042476699687#m

It’s a rocket with a proximity fuse. WW2 era weapon.

Hard to hit anything besides very slow and low moving helicopter.

No guidance system.

 

[WudangMaster]

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712221858303533492

Biden has officially confirmed the Hamas beheading children story.

 

[TheImmortal]

Unconfirmed reports that Biden is looking at ways to freeze $6 billion of Iranian assets held in Qatar.

The same $6 billion that was recently 'released' from Japan and now held in Qatari banks in escrow.

Would be a massive embarrassment for the Raisi administration if it happens.

Iran should arrest 100 more Iranian-Americans the next day if this is confirmed. Absolute treachery.

US can only freeze if it’s in a western bank or in US dollars.

Blame Iran for being dumb enough to keep it in US dollars and accept oversight of its own cash and not negotiate to repatriate the assets to a foreign (or domestic) bank of its choosing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712221858303533492

Biden has officially confirmed the Hamas beheading children story.

Doesn’t mean much. Publicly Obama confirmed the Assad “gassed” his people lie, but behind the scenes New Yorker Reporter Seymour Hersh wrote a major article pointing to doubt it was Assad.

You also forget there is 5+ miltant groups fighting and a ton of civilians ran thru the breach. That includes thugs, Sunni extremists, serial killers, literally anyone.

Again I was the first to call out the civilian deaths as unacceptable. But how do we know who committed the atrocities? Was it Hamas? Was it PIJ? Was it a fringe group? Extremists?

No one knows or at least hasn’t provided proof. It’s like blaming the entire US military for Blackwater crimes in Iraq.

 

[HGV]

US can only freeze if it’s in a western bank or in US dollars.

Blame Iran for being dumb enough to keep it in US dollars and accept oversight of its own cash and not negotiate to repatriate the assets to a foreign (or domestic) bank of its choosing.

I think it was converted to Euros when it was moved from Japan to Qatar

Nonetheless, they can force any country to freeze Iran's funds

 

[tsunset]

Current stories that are being told that are either lies or unconfirmed:

• Killing of 250 people at the rave party: Lie, no proof beside videos of people running of the party
• Beheading of 40 babies: No need to talk about it
• Rapes: No proof
• Hamas soldier putting a trunk in a capture woman ***: No proof and ridiculous
• Hamas soldiers attaching a teenager girl on a post and using a crowbar with a hammer to dislocate her limbs while alive: No proof
• Hamas during their entrance, used a steamroller to roll on random civilians: No proof, no images, nothing
• Hamas putting tree branches in the throat of a woman and raping her with it: No proof, no video, nothing

 

[TheImmortal]

I think it was converted to Euros when it was moved from Japan to Qatar

Interesting story, especially considering the funds came from South Korea and not Japan.

Side note: Euros might as well be dollars since the Europeans are lapdogs of the US.

Nonetheless, they can force any country to freeze Iran's funds

Qatari banks literally were caught bankrolling Sunni terrorist groups during rise of ISIS plus major financiers of Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar is also a significant Arab ally due to Iran’s support during blockade and secret defense agreements signed with IRGC. They would push back on any freezing of funds if it’s not in dollars or Euros.

Only reason Biden is doing this is to take the criticism off him for reelection purposes and do to huge pro-Israel Congress where some democrats are up for relection and will have to face allegations they funded Iran’s (and Hamas’) operation.

 

[HGV]

Interesting story, especially considering the funds came from South Korea and not Japan.

Well done, you win a** **** of the day award.

 

[HGV]

There is a fantastic FT podcast with Gideon Rachman and historian Lawrence Freedman (leading war studies / strategic thinking academic) about this war and next steps. I will summarise some of the points made by Lawrence Freedman here:

• Israeli problems: deterrence failed, rhetoric demands more than degradation of Hamas capabilities but Israel cannot conduct regime change or occupy Gaza (don't have the sufficient numbers), so they will end up degrading capabilities and punishing Palestinians again.
• No obvious endpoint for negotiations - ground invasion may be demanded by public opinion but is very perilous for Israel.
• Regime change in Gaza not possible - movements in Gaza are deeply rooted, Hamas previously suited Israel as it didn't pursue 2SS. Gaza needs some government, no other options.
• Hamas 'rampage' turned an embarrassment for Israel into something that put Hamas on the strategic back foot.
• 3 problems for Israel: (1) after a while, people will ask what is the point of incremental airstrikes on Gaza, (2) different nationalities among hostages and (3) want to avoid Hezbollah joining the war. Not impossible for Israel to say 'we caused significant damage to Hamas and taught them a lesson' and trade hostages for lifting of siege.
• Whatever happens next, Israeli government has too many questions to answer to survive.
• 1982 invasion of Lebanon and siege of Beirut led to Begin resignation and this is likely what will happen again (investigation --> Bibi resignation)
• Iran facilitated Hamas' actions but did not order this. Iran prefers to keep Hezbollah 'in reserve' as deterrent against action being taken against Iran. Would be 'catastrophic' for Israel to have to cope with Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time. Everyone is incentivised to avoid larger war. Israeli Arabs and West Bank are more likely avenues for escalation.
• Freedman would advise Israeli government to declare they have done enough as soon as possible, then concentrate on freeing prisoners.
• Ukraine: Zelensky played it well by denouncing Hamas' attack and comparing it to Russian actions in Ukraine. This won't have a big impact on the Ukraine war.

Israel and Gaza at war

The miscalculations that led to unprecedented carnage in Israel

www.ft.com

Generally, Lawrence thinks Israel does not have many good options in Gaza and would be well placed to keep their operation as short as possible.

 

[tsunset]

Hilarious

 

[TheImmortal]

If Israeli bombs fall on Iran's facilities, Iran's ruling clergy have themselves to blame.

What Hamas did with its massacre of innocent civilians was to rob the Palestinian movement of their moral rightness.

www.yahoo.com

Iranian-American justifies Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and causing widespread radiation in response Palestinian attack.

These idiots want WW3 and global depression apparently.

 

[tsunset]

If Israeli bombs fall on Iran's facilities, Iran's ruling clergy have themselves to blame.

What Hamas did with its massacre of innocent civilians was to rob the Palestinian movement of their moral rightness.

www.yahoo.com

Iranian-American justifies Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and causing widespread radiation in response Palestinian attack.

These idiots want WW3 and global depression apparently.

There was a time when that kind of Iranian were afraid of writing such things, now they feel free to go extreme about advocating to destroy their own country, they should be put on trial and if not inside Iran, be judged and apply the punishment using non-conventional means with death squads. This man is disguting and hilarious at the same time with his "Cyrus the great helped the jews" and implying Iranians are a long time ally of Jews and Israel.

Multiple death squads should be created to send big messages to them, as well as removing their Iranian nationality, seize all their assets inside Iran and even remove their birth certificate. They are not Iranians at this point anymore.

 

[Stryker1982]

Relatively quieter day. War is entering a critical junction for both parties.

I wonder if threats of executing hostages has prevented the abundance of airstrikes that we saw in last 48 hours. Airstrikes have dropped significantly.

Doesn’t appear HZ or Iran will join the conflict unless something drastic happens.

Hamas and PIJ aren't under threat of extinction yet.

Iranian-American justifies Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and causing widespread radiation in response Palestinian attack.

I'm curious, if the Negev center is struck in Dimona, whether the heavy water reactor is active or not would that cause massive radioactive exposure? If I am not mistaken they used to make plutonium there. Is that Iran's counter nuclear card?

 

[Stryker1982]

Generally, Lawrence thinks Israel does not have many good options in Gaza and would be well placed to keep their operation as short as possible.

If they were smart they'd stick to continous and murderous bombardment from air and land for a few weeks, and then sue for peace.

But they are desperate to go in, many of their men will die as a result, and if they are hell bent of setting off a regional conflagration then, it is what it is.