Iranian Chill Thread

[sha ah]

It seems as if the most trouble the Russians are having is in the Donbas region where the Ukrainians have dug in for years, which makes sense.

You could argue that Russia is conducting this entire military operation to cripple Ukrainians military capabilities and will to fight in the Donbas.

I don't think that the Russians are looking to occupy all of Ukraine. I believe that they will simply occupy all of their border crossings, means of communication, bridges, airfields and they will surround all of their major cities.

Urban fighting would cost Russia dearly. On the other hand, surrounding Ukrainian cities and forcing them to come to terms favorable to Russia seems to be Putin's ultimate strategic goal here.

In the south, Crimea, Russia is blitzing forwarding, although they haven't taken Odessa. They have also landed paratroopers and attempted to take several key airfields deep in Ukrainian territory.

In the north Russians have also already taken the infamous Chernobyl area which the Ukrainians were boasting about a few weeks ago.

Ukrainian air defenses and airforce has seemingly been wiped out.

View attachment 818305

This is what 190K troops gets you? The North they literally walked across the border uncontested. The border wasn’t even manned. The south lightly defended.

Ukraine was defending the SOF at the POC.

Shock and awe first 24 hours 1700 sorties were launched and Russian onboard defense systems on helicopters is quite alarming since a KA-52 was downed by a man pad. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an airforce to begin within nor a major mechanized military side either.

Honestly if Ukraine had to fight the Jihadi’s 2010-2015 from Syria. I’m pretty sure they would lose the whole country to jihadis.

This is a country that didn’t fire a single bullet to defend Crimea in 2014. They make Iraqi army look

like Spartans at this point.

View attachment 818305

This is what 190K troops gets you? The North they literally walked across the border uncontested. The border wasn’t even manned. The south lightly defended.

Ukraine was defending the SOF at the POC.

Shock and awe first 24 hours 1700 sorties were launched and Russian onboard defense systems on helicopters is quite alarming since a KA-52 was downed by a man pad. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an airforce to begin within nor a major mechanized military side either.

Honestly if Ukraine had to fight the Jihadi’s 2010-2015 from Syria. I’m pretty sure they would lose the whole country to jihadis.

This is a country that didn’t fire a single bullet to defend Crimea in 2014. They make Iraqi army look like Spartans at this point.

Well LNG is much more expensive than natural gas via pipelines, especially with all the infrastructure required for LNG. Basically it's up to all the potential parties how much they are willing to pay for natural gas or energy in general.

Anything involving India Pakistan has never ended well.I think you are not aware of TAPI's fate.Started in 1995 ,it is nowhere near completion despite huge US backing.
So this will not work.
Your second proposal about underwater pipeline may work,but again India will hesitate to work on this project if this pipeline passed from anywhere near Pakistan maritime border as this will give Pakistan an opportunity to block gas supply line to India during War.

So shipping of gas containers to India is the way to go.

 

[TheImmortal]

It seems as if the most trouble the Russians are having is in the Donbas region where the Ukrainians have dug in for years, which makes sense.

You could argue that Russia is conducting this entire military operation to cripple Ukrainians military capabilities and will to fight in the Donbas.

Russia plans to take at the minimum HALF of Ukraine. You don’t move 150K+ troops, hundreds of tanks, 100+ aircraft to take border crossings. What kind of analysis is this?

The west expects Kiyv to fall in hours.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496867212711260162

Seems like Ukraine military isn’t even fighting. They will encircle Donbass elements and force them to surrender or get destroyed via TOS-1A and MLRS.

 

[sha ah]

Well some of this has to do with geography. 60% of Germany's natural gas comes from Russia and that's due to pricing and convenience. Iran is more geographically isolated and Iran is much smaller than Russia in everyway. Russia is too large to sanction effectively. There WILL BE bounce back effects on the EU. Gasoline prices are already spiking in the west and there is the potential for wheat prices to spiral out of control as well with Ukraine/Russia producing 30% of the worlds wheat.

Iran: *breaths*
west: you are kicked out of SWIFT for breathing to loud

Russia: invades another country illegally
West: no plans on SWIFT

That’s what happens when you have economic leverage on your opponent. Iran’s “neither east nor west” made it so Iran had leverage on NOBODY.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496922737427816457

The Ukrainian military should listen to Putin. Without direct support from the west it's hopeless. Ukraine's chances are abysmal.

None of this would have happened if Ukraine had listened to Putin a few days ago and had backed off from the Donbas or negotiated in good faith.

Ukraine could have been a trading partner with the EU on one side and Russia/China on the other. They didn't need to pick sides or pick fights but no they had to antagonize Russia. Well this is what they wanted correct ? Enjoy!

Russia plans to take at the minimum HALF of Ukraine. You don’t move 150K+ troops, hundreds of tanks, 100+ aircraft to take border crossings. What kind of analysis is this?

The west expects Kiyv to fall in hours.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496867212711260162

Seems like Ukraine military isn’t even fighting. They will encircle Donbass elements and force them to surrender or get destroyed via TOS-1A and MLRS.

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

how much they are willing to pay for natural gas or energy in general

Of course LNG is not cheap but Indo-Pak hate doesn't care about these things.

Mistrust is huge so no one will even think about land based pipeline.

 

[sha ah]

I wonder where Turkiye will get their tank engines from now ? That's if they have any funding left regardless with Erdogan recently lowering the interest rate further.

Ukraine proposes its 6TD engine to equip Turkish-made Altay main battl

google_ad_client = "pub-4068738923530102"; /* 468x15 data sheet menu top dark green */ google_ad_slot = "3500417247"; google_ad_width = 468; go

www.armyrecognition.com

Erdogan says interest rates will be lowered and inflation will fall too

Turkey's president repeated his unorthodox economic policy on Saturday and said the country's economic woes would pass.

www.reuters.com

Too bad India-Pakistan cannot broker some sort of lasting peace deal. We can only hope for a bright future for the people of Pakistan-India and the broader region.

Of course LNG is not cheap but Indo-Pak hate doesn't care about these things.

Mistrust is huge so no one will even think about land based pipeline.

I wonder if Zelensky is even still in Kiev or even in Ukraine or whether they're sending out recordings from abroad ?

What will happen if Zelensky is captured if Kiev is surrounded ?

Will he end up in the same cell as Navalny ? Will he end up in a Gulag ? Will he end up being turned into fertilizer ?

In my opinion, any Ukrainian who opposes Russia and has spoken up against Putin specifically should leave Ukraine immediately.

 

[TheImmortal]

The big win here for Iran is this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496744457848328193

Saudi Arabia with Iskander would be a disaster.

Also keep an eye on Hostomel airport outside of Kiyv. Russia first took it over. Now contesting it with Ukraine’s Rapid Response Birgade. If Ukraine loses this. Expect Russia planes to start landing and a forward operating base (FOB) to be established very close to Kiyv

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496929575984676874

 

[sha ah]

Aren't the Saudi's already purchasing missiles from China and building them with help from China ? Is this a way of diversifying ?

Honestly I believe the Russians are doing this on purpose. After this, mark my words they will offer Iran fighter jets in order to counter this. Now with this Ukraine invasion and especially if the the JCPOA is revived. expect Iran to make some major military purchases.

Anyways, Saudi's have ALOT of catching up to do when it comes to Iran's missile industry and especially Iran's drones. Saudis are nowhere close and Iran is always improving and advancing.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear as if the Saudi's want to end the Yemen conflict using negotiations. 7 weeks turned into 7 years and who knows, it might go into 10 years. Imagine the human development and progress that money could have bought in the region. Sad

The big win here for Iran is this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496744457848328193

Saudi Arabia with Iskander would be a disaster.

Also keep an eye on Hostomel airport outside of Kiyv. Russia first took it over. Now contesting it with Ukraine’s Rapid Response Birgade. If Ukraine loses this. Expect Russia planes to start landing and a forward operating base (FOB) to be established very close to Kiyv

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496929575984676874

 

[TheImmortal]

Aren't the Saudi's already purchasing missiles from China and building them with help from China ? Is this a way of diversifying ?

Honestly I believe the Russians are doing this on purpose. After this, mark my words they will offer Iran fighter jets in order to counter this. Now with this Ukraine invasion and especially if the the JCPOA is revived. expect Iran to make some major military purchases.

Anyways, Saudi's have ALOT of catching up to do when it comes to Iran's missile industry and especially Iran's drones. Saudis are nowhere close and Iran is always improving and advancing.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear as if the Saudi's want to end the Yemen conflict using negotiations. 7 weeks turned into 7 years and who knows, it might go into 10 years. Imagine the human development and progress that money could have bought in the region. Sad

The extent of Chinese help on Saudi Arabia BM program is unknown and I’m not sure how accurate those missiles will be. Where as Ukraine was willing to offer license production of a highly accurate missile.

People forget Ukraine has/had a big arms production industry during the Soviet Union days.

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

Aren't the Saudi's already purchasing missiles from China and building them with help from China ? Is this a way of diversifying ?

Honestly I believe the Russians are doing this on purpose. After this, mark my words they will offer Iran fighter jets in order to counter this. Now with this Ukraine invasion and especially if the the JCPOA is revived. expect Iran to make some major military purchases.

Anyways, Saudi's have ALOT of catching up to do when it comes to Iran's missile industry and especially Iran's drones. Saudis are nowhere close and Iran is always improving and advancing.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear as if the Saudi's want to end the Yemen conflict using negotiations. 7 weeks turned into 7 years and who knows, it might go into 10 years. Imagine the human development and progress that money could have bought in the region. Sad

you gotta be effing kidding me bro if you think Iran has any advantages on KSA anywhere where most of NATO members can't even meet KSA armament treeshold and also the assumption that missiles are hail-mary's is at best lunacy you can do limited stuff with it such as damage assets that is pretty much it and that is even big if it gets thru the ADS which it can but it really doesn't bring much to the table.. it won go sparta mode and perform harry potter magical trick to rollover conventional forces coming at you.

If this was poker and I was handed two choices between what KSA and Iran have I would chose what KSA has as that is clearly the best hand. Iran doesn't have drone advantage neither KSA is far ahead in armament compared to Iran everywhere and it is Iran that has to close the gap and mind you the gap is significiantly large in ADS, airforce, conventional armament, EWs and other electronics, jammings etc etc. KSA meets the standard modern armament and much better equipped all around then majority of NATO countries except few can top it.. Even the other GCC are far ahead of Iran

Russia plans to take at the minimum HALF of Ukraine. You don’t move 150K+ troops, hundreds of tanks, 100+ aircraft to take border crossings. What kind of analysis is this?

The west expects Kiyv to fall in hours.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496867212711260162

Seems like Ukraine military isn’t even fighting. They will encircle Donbass elements and force them to surrender or get destroyed via TOS-1A and MLRS.

Russia knows that they can't take all of Ukraine in this round of fighting meaning Russia has clearly planned ahead to invade Ukraine in pieces and bits. This round of operation will take the eastern parts of the country perhaps even including Kiev itself then hold a pause by negotiating and consolidate that and recruit more forces and train them etc etc integrate them into the armed forces which means they will fight approx in this round for 6months to 1 year then consolidate their gains for couple of years 8-10 years and then again attack around 2035-ish to take another half which is the central west portion and then do another 10-15 years of pause before going for the last remaining part which is the most western part..

War is unfortunately not gung-ho or low-budget chinese kung-fu movie things take time and correct calculations has to be made when two large group of people collide in urban areas or villages etc etc the outcome is vague to predict but doing limited gain and consolidate is safer bet especially considering Russia is throwing in overall 350k to 400k if you including the rebels and Belarus around 350k to 400k which is not enough to occupy all of Ukraine.. They need atleast 2-3m men in order to occupy it whole

 

[Stryker1982]

View attachment 818305

This is what 190K troops gets you? The North they literally walked across the border uncontested. The border wasn’t even manned. The south lightly defended.

Ukraine was defending the SOF at the POC.

Shock and awe first 24 hours 1700 sorties were launched and Russian onboard defense systems on helicopters is quite alarming since a KA-52 was downed by a man pad. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an airforce to begin within nor a major mechanized military side either.

Honestly if Ukraine had to fight the Jihadi’s 2010-2015 from Syria. I’m pretty sure they would lose the whole country to jihadis.

This is a country that didn’t fire a single bullet to defend Crimea in 2014. They make Iraqi army look like Spartans at this point.

I can also be said the main Russian ground force has not been utilized yet. Haven't seen a single T-90 yet.

Perhaps this is a phase 1 situation with smaller tactical battalion groups used to test Ukrainian defences, perhaps in Day 2 or Day 3 the main force moves.

The big win here for Iran is this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496744457848328193

Saudi Arabia with Iskander would be a disaster.

Also keep an eye on Hostomel airport outside of Kiyv. Russia first took it over. Now contesting it with Ukraine’s Rapid Response Birgade. If Ukraine loses this. Expect Russia planes to start landing and a forward operating base (FOB) to be established very close to Kiyv

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496929575984676874

One question, I don't understand how they can hold the airport like and land cargo and troops comfortable without coming under artillery fire.

How long range is your typical Grad launcher? I suppose the fact they don't have 6 canister Fath launchers is what makes this do-able.

 

[sha ah]

Saudis have lots of funding behind their military but their military will always be relatively weak and feeble. Why ? Because Saudi Arabia is an authoritarian regime and for such a regime, strengthening the military too much would be detrimental to their grip on power.

If the Saudis were to promote officers in their military based strictly on their capabilities and capacity, rather than family ties and loyalty, then that military would likely eventually overthrow them. We've seen this all over the Arab world where military leaders have overthrown monarchy's. Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, etc

As for their missile program, yes it's far behind how developed Iran's missile program is. Drones they're not even close. There's a huge difference between buying products or even buying a factory from China to license produce as opposed to indigenously producing defense products using a nations education platform, along with engineers, local grassroots companies.

Saudis have oil but in terms of human resources compared to Iran they're not even close. Iran has more women in University than men and produces 1 million cars a year. Iran is number 15 globally in terms of scientific journals published. Saudis are number 24 and I wouldn't be surprised if they're buying those journals as well.

They have this mentality that they can buy everything from weapons to Olympic athletes. Everything can and should be purchased. Well we've seen how well that mentality has worked out in Yemen. They boasted about 7 weeks. It turned into 7 years so far. They're nothing more than a US / western vassal / puppet regime. If not for western intervention the Turks would probably still own them literally.

you gotta be effing kidding me bro if you think Iran has any advantages on KSA anywhere where most of NATO members can't even meet KSA armament treeshold and also the assumption that missiles are hail-mary's is at best lunacy you can do limited stuff with it such as damage assets that is pretty much it and that is even big if it gets thru the ADS which it can but it really doesn't bring much to the table.. it won go sparta mode and perform harry potter magical trick to rollover conventional forces coming at you.

If this was poker and I was handed two choices between what KSA and Iran have I would chose what KSA has as that is clearly the best hand. Iran doesn't have drone advantage neither KSA is far ahead in armament compared to Iran everywhere and it is Iran that has to close the gap and mind you the gap is significiantly large in ADS, airforce, conventional armament, EWs and other electronics, jammings etc etc. KSA meets the standard modern armament and much better equipped all around then majority of NATO countries except few can top it.. Even the other GCC are far ahead of Iran



Russia knows that they can't take all of Ukraine in this round of fighting meaning Russia has clearly planned ahead to invade Ukraine in pieces and bits. This round of operation will take the eastern parts of the country perhaps even including Kiev itself then hold a pause by negotiating and consolidate that and recruit more forces and train them etc etc integrate them into the armed forces which means they will fight approx in this round for 6months to 1 year then consolidate their gains for couple of years 8-10 years and then again attack around 2035-ish to take another half which is the central west portion and then do another 10-15 years of pause before going for the last remaining part which is the most western part..

War is unfortunately not gung-ho or low-budget chinese kung-fu movie things take time and correct calculations has to be made when two large group of people collide in urban areas or villages etc etc the outcome is vague to predict but doing limited gain and consolidate is safer bet especially considering Russia is throwing in overall 350k to 400k if you including the rebels and Belarus around 350k to 400k which is not enough to occupy all of Ukraine.. They need atleast 2-3m men in order to occupy it whole

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

Saudis have lots of funding behind their military but their military will always be relatively weak and feeble. Why ? Because Saudi Arabia is an authoritarian regime and for such a regime, strengthening the military too much would be detrimental to their grip on power.

If the Saudis were to promote officers in their military based strictly on their capabilities and capacity, rather than family ties and loyalty, then that military would likely eventually overthrow them. We've seen this all over the Arab world where military leaders have overthrown monarchy's. Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, etc

As for their missile program, yes it's far behind how developed Iran's missile program is. Drones they're not even close. There's a huge difference between buying products or even buying a factory from China to license produce as opposed to indigenously producing defense products using a nations education platform, along with engineers, local grassroots companies.

Saudis have oil but in terms of human resources compared to Iran they're not even close. Iran has more women in University than men and produces 1 million cars a year. Iran is number 15 globally in terms of scientific journals published. Saudis are number 24 and I wouldn't be surprised if they're buying those journals as well.

They have this mentality that they can buy everything from weapons to Olympic athletes. Everything can and should be purchased. Well we've seen how well that mentality has worked out in Yemen. They boasted about 7 weeks. It turned into 7 years so far. They're nothing more than a US / western vassal / puppet regime. If not for western intervention the Turks would probably still own them literally.

This is equal to female self-praising proportions. It doesn't matter if one buys or makes but what matters is that he has it in his inventory that is what it means to have better armament. The Saudis operate better drones and access to even more and have production line of drones and have produced dozens.

All that carnage about authoritarian yada yada is major fallacy Iran itself is Authoritarian which means they fall under that ridiculous conspiracy you just belted out..

What is all this about school this or that we were just talking arms.. The saudis have invaded you guys for centuries upto 800 years. You can't lose to someone who is inferior to you that much.. Replying to the Turkish angle you came with. You aren't really special or atleast not to them they have seen that conquered that.. For them it is like oh' that is just old harry trying to make himself appear more then he is.. But he sees you harry

 

[TheImmortal]

Ukraine government claiming they retook the airport and eliminated the Russian special forces who were holding it.

If true, huge incompetence on Russian military part. Reminds me of the Nohed raid outside of Aleppo during Syrian civil war that ended in a terrible ambush and became a National embarrassment for Iran’s artesh.

 

[QWECXZ]

Russian ambassador at the UN has said that Russia does not recognize the sovereignty of Israel on Golan heights and consider it an occupied region.

Russia slams Israeli 'occupation' of Golan Heights after Jerusalem supports Ukraine

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[Stryker1982]

The Saudis operate better drones and access to even more and have production line of drones and have produced dozens

That's it?

you gotta be effing kidding me bro if you think Iran has any advantages on KSA anywhere where most of NATO members can't even meet KSA armament treeshold

If NATO says so, not a single Saudi Aircraft can take off from the ground. Their military functioning is holistically dependent on them. How many sorties have the mighty Saudi Aircraft done in Yemen with what results?

Ukraine government claiming they retook the airport and eliminated the Russian special forces who were holding it.

If true, huge incompetence on Russian military part. Reminds me of the Nohed raid outside of Aleppo during Syrian civil war that ended in a terrible ambush and became a National embarrassment for Iran’s artesh.

Their was a ton of helicopter and air support around the airport but some how it wasn't enough.

Perhaps their were very large casualties on the UKR side.