Iranian Chill Thread

[Abid123]

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What a complete and utter disaster. Who sends in helicopters when air defenses are active and Ukraine has fighter jets?

Then if the second half of your plan is for massive cargo jets to bring paratroopers, wouldn’t you make sure the air defenses are down before even doing this plan?

I thought Iran military planning during Syrian war was incompetence, but Russia just said hold my beer.

If I was NATO, I’d join the war. This Russian side is led by General Potato and General Tomato. They would be in Moscow by end of the month.

Sir, you should be a general....

 

[sha ah]

People need to relax. It hasn't even been 24 hours since Russia began waging war in Ukraine.

Yes this was an excessively bold move on the first day to try and take an airfield right outside Kiev. Although the Russians were able to take the airfield for some time, they could not hold onto it.

They took a gamble and it didn't pay off. In any case, the Russians have still had tremendous success for the first day alone, although you could argue that they have over-expanded.

Anyways they will have to be much more patient and methodical in their approach. Likely Ukraine is not simply going to roll over and surrender without atleast some resistance.

This entire operation will likely not be as easy as Crimea was in 2015.

I can also be said the main Russian ground force has not been utilized yet. Haven't seen a single T-90 yet.

Perhaps this is a phase 1 situation with smaller tactical battalion groups used to test Ukrainian defences, perhaps in Day 2 or Day 3 the main force moves.


One question, I don't understand how they can hold the airport like and land cargo and troops comfortable without coming under artillery fire.

How long range is your typical Grad launcher? I suppose the fact they don't have 6 canister Fath launchers is what makes this do-able.

Ukraine government claiming they retook the airport and eliminated the Russian special forces who were holding it.

If true, huge incompetence on Russian military part. Reminds me of the Nohed raid outside of Aleppo during Syrian civil war that ended in a terrible ambush and became a National embarrassment for Iran’s artesh.

 

[sha ah]

 

[TheImmortal]

They took a gamble and it didn't pay off. In any case, the Russians have still had tremendous success for the first day alone, although you could argue that they have over-expanded.

A “gamble” led to the lives of experienced Russian soldiers. A “gamble” that was quite foolish given that air defenses were not down (even tho Russian declared it had neutralized Ukraine’s AD network) and Ukraine fighter jets still in the air.

Sending helicopters in even assuming that they won’t be detected begs the question is once Ukraine forces hear there are defenseless soldiers sitting in an recently captured open air base, I mean what did they think was going to happen?

There was no need to “gamble” since the power that Russia has and Ukraine has are beyond comparable.

The consensus is Ukraine put up much more of a fight than Russia expected. Maybe they were expecting a Georgia type situation or for forces to just cede territory.

Where are the Russian bombers? Where is SU-57? Where is MIG-31? Where are UAVs? Where are suicide UAVs?

It’s very peculiar, that Russia who gained so much experience in Syria for their air campaign is not using it. I don’t believe the propaganda that Russia doesn’t have “too much PGM stocks” that some are saying on social media. Even if Russia’s PGM stock is much lower than the West, Syria proved they can still wage a heavy air campaign.

After amassing such a force on the border for months now, one would think this would be a steamroll situation. Instead seeing evidence of a decent amount of Russian casualties.

If Putin is avoiding city warfare and collateral damage in order to win the people over that ship has sailed. His public image is not good in Ukraine. Thus Sending too many body bags back to Russia risks turning public opinion against the war quickly.

Russian People supported his Crimea and Georgia campaigns because they were relatively painless and quick victories.

 

[sha ah]

There is no such things as a perfect war. Wars are a messy, back and forth affair.

Realistically it has been 24 hours. Give it one week or one month and see where we are then ?

Also 20 years in Afghanistan led to utter and absolute humiliation for all of NATO. So what about that ? Was that a "gamble" that paid off ?

Again this has been the first day of fighting and in the south the Russians have successfully made inroads 100 KM into Ukraine.

In the north the Russians have successfully taken the Chernobyl area, which the Ukrainians were boasting about not too long ago.

I don't think that the Russians are interested in occupying all of Ukraine. Every city, every town, every town square, every brick and mortar. No what the Russians want to do basically force Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas and eliminate the threat to Crimea.

The Russians also want to eliminate Ukraine's antagonistic outlook towards Russia. In order to do this, the Russians want to destroy all of Ukraine's air defense capabilities, destroy its airforce and basically take control of Ukraine by occupying strategic points.

So border crossings, bridges, highways, airfields and most importantly surround the major cities.

Kharkov, Ukraine's 2nd largest city is 40 km away from the Russian border and Kiev is approximately 100 km away from the Belarusian border,

Once these objectives are met, the goal is to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, where they will be forced to sign terms favorable to Russia.

Once their cities are surrounded, if they still refuse, Russia can cut off their gas. No more heat or cooking. Just give it a few days and likely Ukraine will capitulate.

A “gamble” led to the lives of experienced Russian soldiers. A “gamble” that was quite foolish given that air defenses were not down (even tho Russian declared it had neutralized Ukraine’s AD network) and Ukraine fighter jets still in the air.

Sending helicopters in even assuming that they won’t be detected begs the question is once Ukraine forces hear there are defenseless soldiers sitting in an recently captured open air base, I mean what did they think was going to happen?

There was no need to “gamble” since the power that Russia has and Ukraine has are beyond comparable.

The consensus is Ukraine put up much more of a fight than Russia expected. Maybe they were expecting a Georgia type situation or for forces to just cede territory.

Where are the Russian bombers? Where is SU-57? Where is MIG-31? Where are UAVs? Where are suicide UAVs?

It’s very peculiar, that Russia who gained so much experience in Syria for their air campaign is not using it. I don’t believe the propaganda that Russia doesn’t have “too much PGM stocks” that some are saying on social media. Even if Russia’s PGM stock is much lower than the West, Syria proved they can still wage a heavy air campaign.

After amassing such a force on the border for months now, one would think this would be a steamroll situation. Instead seeing evidence of a decent amount of Russian casualties.

If Putin is avoiding city warfare and collateral damage in order to win the people over that ship has sailed. His public image is not good in Ukraine. Thus Sending too many body bags back to Russia risks turning public opinion against the war quickly.

Russian People supported his Crimea and Georgia campaigns because they were relatively painless and quick victories.

 

[TheImmortal]

Why are you getting so excited ? It's been 24 hours. Why don't you come back in one week or one month and see where we are then ?

Also 20 years in Afghanistan led to utter and absolute humiliation for all of NATO. So what about that ? Was that a "gamble" that paid off ?

Again this has been the first day of fighting and in the south the Russians have successfully made inroads 100 KM into Ukraine.

In the north the Russians have successfully taken the Chernobyl area, which the Ukrainians were boasting about not too long ago.

I don't think that the Russians are interested in occupying all of Ukraine. Every city, every town, every town square, every brick and mortar. No what the Russians want to do basically force Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas and eliminate the threat to Crimea.

The Russians also want to eliminate Ukraine's antagonistic outlook towards Russia. In order to do this, the Russians want to destroy all of Ukraine's air defense capabilities, destroy its airforce and basically take control of Ukraine by occupying strategic points.

So border crossings, bridges, highways, airfields and most importantly surround the major cities.

Kharkov, Ukraine's 2nd largest city is 40 km away from the Russian border and Kiev is approximately 100 km away from the Belarusian border,

Once these objectives are met, the goal is to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, where they will be forced to sign terms favorable to Russia.

Once their cities are surrounded, if they still refuse, Russia can cut off their gas. No more heat or cooking. Just give it a few days and likely Ukraine will capitulate.

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1) No one is saying Russia won’t be successful in its objectives. The military gap between Ukraine and Russia is way to wide. I mean Ukraine is giving guns to any able man right now, that is a dire situation.

The arguement is the unnecessary risk taking surrounding the airport in conjunction with lack of the optimal use of key military assets.

I mean S-400 and S-500 deployed near the borders would make large parts of Ukraine practical no fly zones for Ukraine fighter jets. Furthermore, Azeribajian used suicide drones and UAV to completely dismantle the Armenian army’s front lines and equipment and rapidly gain territory. We know Russia has a decent amount of UAV types from Syria footage.

2) Afghanistan was a disaster, but it was a insurgency not conventional war. Cant compare Russia vs Ukraine in the same way as Afghanistan vs US

3) Taking cities at this time would be pretty difficult. So it makes sense to avoid them when the forces passing thru are small. Kharkov alone has 1M+ population.

Ask Syria, Iran, USA, Iraq how difficult it can be for a conventional military to fight street to street and not end up basically demolishing the entire city.

4) Goal looks like at least initially to take Kiyv and force the government to surrender or destroy morale to the point the rest of operation becomes a much easier task. By taking the capital, Russia is trying to end the war quickly.

But 2.5M people in Kiyv, will not be simple operation if Ukraine decides to have its last stand.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497030253830545409

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497024504455139330

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497031073145966595

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497034252910690305

 

[aryobarzan]

Russian revenge on Turkish drones...lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496731284307128321

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497044093310205954

Idk it looks like cruise missile to me, Based on a piece recovered so far.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497045920659423233

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497051595980230660

Well this is interesting....

 

[Mata Elang]

Putin's invaders have gone mad, prepare for the consequences!

What's up with Putin's mugger supporters? What happens if your independent country is attacked by Putin's occupiers/robbers?

 

[TheImmortal]

Putin's invaders have gone mad, prepare for the consequences!

What's up with Putin's mugger supporters? What happens if your independent country is attacked by Putin's occupiers/robbers?

When England-France-USA invade & destroy countries (Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya) it’s ok because “they brought freedom to these uncivilized brown people”

When Russia brings freedom it’s called an “invader and violating international law”

Have to love the Western logic here.

 

[Mata Elang]

When England-France-USA invade & destroy countries (Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya) it’s ok because “they brought freedom to these uncivilized brown people”

When Russia brings freedom it’s called an “invader and violating international law”

Have to love the Western logic here.

That means you AGREE Russia is the same as the US, UK and France, which are both invader countries. Are you two-faced? Remember Ukraine is not a member of NATO, even if Ukraine is a member of NATO, Russia/Putin has no right to attack an independent country like Ukraine, unless Ukraine attacks first.

 

[GWXP]

1) Seems like the era of American hegemony or global dominance that lasted since 1991 officially ended yesterday...There is no longer American hegemon or global policemen anymore.

World was multipolar prior to WWII, bipolar during the Cold War, unipolar since 1991 and now again we are moving to a multipolar world.

In 6-8 years China will surpass US in term of economy and by 2030 will have substantial military capabilities, Russia recovers Eastern Europe.

At the same time US has a debt of 130% of GDP, inability to stimulate economy through monetary or fiscal policies due to 0% Fed interest rate and massive debt and aging population....

2) Russian invasion of Ukraine is good for Iran. Now Russia will be sanctioned and isolated from the West and with emergence of a new "Iron Curtain" Russia will have to cooperate with Iran.

At the same time US, which wasted 20 years in the Middle East, will want to make a deal with Iran, so they could fully concentrate on Russia and China.

3) Historically on average armored brigades moved at a rate of 20-30km a day...So this war could last 2 weeks or 1 month...

Occupying entire Ukraine will require 400.000-500.000 troops and massive military spendings from Russia...So with 200.000 troops Russia probably wants to occupy Eastern Ukraine and establish a natural border on Dnepr river.

After this invasion there will be massive deployment of large NATO military assets in Eastern Europe and a new Cold War between the West and Russia...Poland and Romania will have to increase their military budgets and rebuild their militaries with American help in order to contain Russia.

4) At the current oil price 1 dollar should be 40 rubles, but its now 85 rubles...This is because Russia conducts policies aimed at keeping ruble artificially weak through the policy of the so called "budgetary rule".

Russia kept its currency artificially weak for the last 5 years in order to stimulate import substitution and boost non oil exports.

Of course new sanctions will weaken ruble even further but Russia is ready for this thanks to import substitution.

5) For Ukraine Russian invasion will be a catastrophe from economic point of view.

Russia will establish a puppet regime which will be sanctioned by the West....

18% of Ukrainian GDP comes from remittances of Ukrainian guest-workers in the European Union (in Poland, Czech Republic, Baltic states.)

70% of Ukrainian exports go to the European Union

Every year IMF bailout Ukraine by refinancing its soveregin debt.

Sanctions against the puppet regime in Ukraine will leave it without remittances, ability to export to European Union and without financial support...so there will be economic collapse and bankruptcy of Ukraine, which might increase dissatisfaction with Russian rule.

5) Video from 2014 by Peter Zeihan predicting Russia invading Ukraine (he is also the guy predicting Iran-Saudi war)

 

[TheImmortal]

That means you AGREE Russia is the same as the US, UK and France, which are both invader countries. Are you two-faced? Remember Ukraine is not a member of NATO, even if Ukraine is a member of NATO, Russia/Putin has no right to attack an independent country like Ukraine, unless Ukraine attacks first.

I love this “whataboutism” arguement Western supporters put forth. “2 wrongs don’t make a right”.

When Russia/Iran/China were saying for years that the West flaunting international law to support their own interests risks a break down of international order and law the West said “blah blah blah”. When the west tore up international agreements to sastify domestic audience and maximalist demands they should have thought about days like this.

strong countries defend their own interests and national security. This has been going on since the dawn of man.

Russia gave every chance for the West to address its security concerns over the last 20 years, but instead the West continued to stage color revolutions and move closer and closer to Russian borders.

In my opinion this move was long over due, should have happened 10+ years ago.

The west doesn’t want peace with Russia.

How come Iran a country they could have squashed in 2003 and 2008 they didn’t attack? How come they choose diplomacy? That is because Iran was expanding and pushing the security threats AWAY from its borders and the West was struggling to contain Iran. Thus West WANTED diplomacy.

Which leads to my ultimate point, if West truly wanted diplomacy they would have negotiated with major power like Russia. Instead they should zero flexibility and pushed Ukraine into a war it was ill equipped to win. This is all by design to begin weakening Russia via sanctions and add Russia to the pariah list of Iran, Syria, and North Korea.

They will do the same to China vis a vi Taiwan mark my words.

 

[TheImmortal]

Occupying entire Ukraine will require 400.000-500.000 troops and massive military spendings from Russia...So with 200.000 troops Russia probably wants to occupy Eastern Ukraine and establish a natural border on Dnepr river.

Not sure where these numbers come from.

US had 170K troops in Iraq at its peak fighting an insurgency. Ukraine is only 38% bigger than Iraq size wise.

Also have to remember US fought a Sunni and Shiite insurgency at the same time with a failing nation state. Europeans aren’t like Arabs. Some low grade insurgency might happen here or there, but nothing on the scale we saw in Iraq which required constant troop presence. Nor is there a ethnic war threat like you had in Iraq (Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis).

Once Ukraine falls, MPs will arrive to administer safety to cities and troops and special forces units will chase down any insurgency leaders. Putin will install friendly regime elements that fled the last color revolutions.

But I agree with you that splitting Ukraine in half initially will be the first goal. Wether Putin tries to take the West will probably depend on how the war went and what the West is willing to do to prevent that operation.