Iranian Chill Thread

[Man of steel23]

Pak-Afghanistan relations are not good and same is our case with Iran.
So your idea is not bad but its not applicable at least in this decade.

Nah brah. Don't buy into some rouge border guard accidents in af-pak case but the elite of these states relations is what to look for and there relations is very good there

 

[Stryker1982]

The poor state of Iran's ground and air forces will be really revealed from these Russian Operations that have not been seen in decades at this scale. When we compare and contrast.

Even Coalition vs Iraq (Saddam) did not look like this.

 

[Stryker1982]

5M barrels in a single day is irrelevant. You have to look at monthly shipping volume and bpd. And regarding Iranian oil sales it fell to as low as 100K BPD (officially), which is quite abysmal.

But regarding the 5M Barrel number, do people really think when Iran ships 1.5MBPD that amount is literally done EVERY Day? No, it’s merely an average of monthly and yearly output.

Either way Iran is still well below Shah 1970’s era production levels and it sits on #3-#4 in oil reserves.

So Iran’s production level is due to terrible lack of investment in its facilities, oil fields, and lack of investment to tap new fields, and do greater research to find even bigger fields likely still not found. Not to mention Iran doesn’t have the necessary technology to tap into its shale oil reserves which are also quite abundant.

This needs to be rectified soon because in 100 years who knows if oil will even be legal to be used as energy due to climate change laws.

So Iran needs to take this opportunity and get as much investment into oil, gas, and LNG as it can.

It is starting to look like Fusion, Hydrogen, and wind/solar will be the future energies to power the world.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496756956232810497

You know what's remarkable.

For so much less, they banned Iran from SWIFT, but for the literally invasion of a country, they have not imposed a SWIFT ban on Russia. (Yet).

No matter how much people want to pretend everything is fine, their were alot of miss chances and mistakes in strategy. An Iranian gas pipeline to Europe would've prevented a swift ban..

 

[Stryker1982]

Egypt receives 70% of it's wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

Egypt is Russia little toy now.

Russia might be able to control the breadbasket of the middle east with this move.

 

[sha ah]

Russians from Crimea (the south) have already made it 100 KM north into Ukrainian territory taking cities, towns and everything in their path. The Chernobyl nuclear region has been taken by Russian forces in the north of the country.

Odessa in the south-west is also a major target. Many analysts expected Russia to bomb Ukraine for several days or weeks before making a move. This blitz into Ukraine is rather remarkable.

note: by now Russian troops have advanced much further than this map shows in red. It's difficult to keep up at this point.

The southern pockets under Russian control in Ukraine (Crimea in the south and Donbas pockets in the east) are looking to merge within a few days to weeks at the most.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496884008436703232

Kherson State Administration: Russian troops captured Henichesk, in Skadovsk district reached Shyroke, Oleshky captured, bridge captured​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496859233370918915

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496851388466352132

 

[sha ah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496847599655133185

Ukainian forces have allegedly launched 4 ballistic missiles into Belarus

4 ballistic missiles launched from the territory of the Republic of Belarus in the south-western direction​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496840790412251148

 

[TheImmortal]

Not very impressed by this Russian assault tbh. No shock and awe. Just goes to show you the lack of CMs Russia has in comparison to the 2003 shock and awe on Iraq by US forces.

Seeing losses of mechanized armour, KA-52 helicopters, Support planes. So far progress has been pretty slow.

Putin has been fully demonized by the West. Expecting a SWIFT system cut off soon.

 

[QWECXZ]

Not very impressed by this Russian assault tbh. No shock and awe. Just goes to show you the lack of CMs Russia has in comparison to the 2003 shock and awe on Iraq by US forces.

Seeing losses of mechanized armour, KA-52 helicopters, Support planes. So far progress has been pretty slow.

Putin has been fully demonized by the West. Expecting a SWIFT system cut off soon.

If they kick Russia out of the SWIFT system, it can turn out pretty well for Iran and China.

If the Westerners are smart, they won't cut off their major trades with Russia. They need to tie down Russia with economic opportunities or Russia can break bad.

Anyway, the US was attacking Iraq with the help of the UK. And the progress doesn't really seem that slow. I mean it took the US about 3 weeks to defeat Iraq, and Russia can occupy Kiev in less than 3 weeks.

 

[sha ah]

That was because of Iran's TERRIBLE diplomacy under IR. Say what you will about the Shah, but he convinced the west to give Iran the F-14, the 1970's equivalent of the F-22 today. He also convinced the west to give Iran nuclear weapons on a silver platter.

Wanting to support various movements in Palestine and what not is one thing, but then opening your mouth to stand out and make yourself out to be villain no 1 is the worst thing any country could do. This was especially problematic during Ahmadinejad era.

An Iranian gas pipeline to Europe is very unlikely under this government. There are so many barriers and national boundaries to go over. Realistically if sanctions are removed Iran should push for the Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan or if they don't want to take part, directly underwater to India.

India in a few decades will be the largest economy in the world with the largest population on earth. It would be a great investment. Just make them an offer they can't resist and make it happen. However before that the government in Iran needs to invest in its own infrastructure, specifically energy, mining and optimal power generation in the country. These investments will pay for themselves during the next few decades.

Honestly I think Iran has done more than enough and sacrificed more than enough for the various causes throughout the region. In the next few years Iran needs to focus on building its infrastructure and international relations, especially now with these Russian moves in Ukraine, it's the optimal time to do this, and especially if the JCPOA is revived Iran needs to scramble.

You know what's remarkable.

For so much less, they banned Iran from SWIFT, but for the literally invasion of a country, they have not imposed a SWIFT ban on Russia. (Yet).

No matter how much people want to pretend everything is fine, their were alot of miss chances and mistakes in strategy. An Iranian gas pipeline to Europe would've prevented a swift ban..

60% of Germany's gas is from Russia and that number is set to increase. Is it really wise for them to kick Russia out of SWIFT ? There will be a bounce back effect. Energy prices are already shooting up. Once Russia controls all of the worlds wheat it's going to be hopeless for anyone to mess with Russia too much.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496838985997557761

If they kick Russia out of the SWIFT system, it can turn out pretty well for Iran and China.

If the Westerners are smart, they won't cut off their major trades with Russia. They need to tie down Russia with economic opportunities or Russia can break bad.

Anyway, the US was attacking Iraq with the help of the UK. And the progress doesn't really seem that slow. I mean it took the US about 3 weeks to defeat Iraq, and Russia can occupy Kiev in less than 3 weeks.

Well there has been some shock and awe and I'm not sure what would impress you ? From Crimea they have made it 100 KM + into Ukrainian territory. They have destroyed all of Ukraine's air defense capability and airforce. Russians have also taken several key airfields/bridges/etc deep in Ukrainian territory. Paratroopers have been used and the Chernobyl area has also been secured already.

Honestly tell me, what would they have to have done by now to impress you ? In an alternate reality what would you have to have seen to say "I'm impressed!" ? ??

Not very impressed by this Russian assault tbh. No shock and awe. Just goes to show you the lack of CMs Russia has in comparison to the 2003 shock and awe on Iraq by US forces.

Seeing losses of mechanized armour, KA-52 helicopters, Support planes. So far progress has been pretty slow.

Putin has been fully demonized by the West. Expecting a SWIFT system cut off soon.

 

[QWECXZ]

That was because of Iran's TERRIBLE diplomacy under IR. Say what you will about the Shah, but he convinced the west to give Iran the F-14, the 1970's equivalent of the F-22 today. He also convinced the west to give Iran nuclear weapons on a silver platter.

Wanting to support various movements in Palestine and what not is one thing, but then opening your mouth to stand out and make yourself out to be villain no 1 is the worst thing any country could do. This was especially problematic during Ahmadinejad era.

An Iranian gas pipeline to Europe is very unlikely under this government. There are so many barriers and national boundaries to go over. Realistically if sanctions are removed Iran should push for the Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan or if they don't want to take part, directly underwater to India.

India in a few decades will be the largest economy in the world with the largest population on earth. It would be a great investment. Just make them an offer they can't resist and make it happen. However before that the government in Iran needs to invest in its own infrastructure, specifically energy, mining and optimal power generation in the country. These investments will pay for themselves during the next few decades.

Honestly I think Iran has done more than enough and sacrificed more than enough for the various causes throughout the region. In the next few years Iran needs to focus on building its infrastructure and international relations, especially now with these Russian moves in Ukraine, it's the optimal time to do this, and especially if the JCPOA is revived Iran needs to scramble.



60% of Germany's gas is from Russia and that number is set to increase. Is it really wise for them to kick Russia out of SWIFT ? There will be a bounce back effect. Energy prices are already shooting up. Once Russia controls all of the worlds wheat it's going to be hopeless for anyone to mess with Russia too much.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496838985997557761

Well there has been some shock and awe and I'm not sure what would impress you ? From Crimea they have made it 100 KM + into Ukrainian territory. They have destroyed all of Ukraine's air defense capability and airforce. Russians have also taken several key airfields/bridges/etc deep in Ukrainian territory. Paratroopers have been used and the Chernobyl area has also been secured already.

Honestly tell me, what would they have to have done by now to impress you ? In an alternate reality what would you have to have seen to say "I'm impressed!" ? ??

Well, I know that only one part of your answer is addressed to me, but for the record, let me add that India is unlikely to become the world's largest economy. Probably not in our live times at least. At best, it can become third after China and the US.

That aside, yes, you're absolutely right about the dependence of Germany on Russia's natural gas. Obviously, they are not going to reduce this dependency in a few years, it will take time, but the SWIFT is under the control of the US and the Europeans at the end of the day have to coordinate themselves with what the US dictates. Germany will find it difficult to replace Russia, so they will receive temporary waivers from the US to reduce their dependence on Russia's gas until they can replace Russia. Basically, the same thing that happened to Iran's oil and our European customers. They started talking about in 2005, and it became a reality by 2010 to the extent that even after the JCPOA, our customers didn't bother to reconfigure their refineries for our oil again.

And if such a thing happens, Iran can benefit a lot from this situation. A fearless Russia that no longer cares about its economic ties with Europe have the potential to be much more dangerous for the Europeans.

 

[sha ah]

Look gasoline prices are already shooting up in the west. Not only that but 30% of the worlds Wheat is produced in Russia/Ukraine. Russia imo is too big to sanction effectively. They can sanction Russia but there WILL BE a bounce back effect, especially on Germany and the EU.

This winter there were energy shortages, gasoline ran out in the UK. I believe that the west, especially EU are really over estimating their power. If they could not effectively sanction Iran, how will they sanction Russia ? Impossible, especially with China, Iran, Pakistan and others backing Putin's Russia.

Well, I know that only one part of your answer is addressed to me, but for the record, let me add that India is unlikely to become the world's largest economy. Probably not in our live times at least. At best, it can become third after China and the US.

That aside, yes, you're absolutely right about the dependence of Germany on Russia's natural gas. Obviously, they are not going to reduce this dependency in a few years, it will take time, but the SWIFT is under the control of the US and the Europeans at the end of the day have to coordinate themselves with what the US dictates. Germany will find it difficult to replace Russia, so they will receive temporary waivers from the US to reduce their dependence on Russia's gas until they can replace Russia. Basically, the same thing that happened to Iran's oil and our European customers. They started talking about in 2005, and it became a reality by 2010 to the extent that even after the JCPOA, our customers didn't bother to reconfigure their refineries for our oil again.

And if such a thing happens, Iran can benefit a lot from this situation. A fearless Russia that no longer cares about its economic ties with Europe have the potential to be much more dangerous for the Europeans.

 

[TheImmortal]

This is what 190K troops gets you? The North they literally walked across the border uncontested. The border wasn’t even manned. The south lightly defended.

Ukraine was defending the SOF at the POC.

Shock and awe first 24 hours 1700 sorties were launched and Russian onboard defense systems on helicopters is quite alarming since a KA-52 was downed by a man pad. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an airforce to begin within nor a major mechanized military side either.

Honestly if Ukraine had to fight the Jihadi’s 2010-2015 from Syria. I’m pretty sure they would lose the whole country to jihadis.

This is a country that didn’t fire a single bullet to defend Crimea in 2014. They make Iraqi army look like Spartans at this point.

 

[QWECXZ]

Look gasoline prices are already shooting up in the west. Not only that but 30% of the worlds Wheat is produced in Russia/Ukraine. Russia imo is too big to sanction effectively. They can sanction Russia but there WILL BE a bounce back effect, especially on Germany and the EU.

This winter there were energy shortages, gasoline ran out in the UK. I believe that the west, especially EU are really over estimating their power. If they could not effectively sanction Iran, how will they sanction Russia ? Impossible, especially with China, Iran, Pakistan and others backing Putin's Russia.

I completely agree with your assessment, but the West currently, particularly after the fall of communism, lives in this hallucination of invincibility and monopoly that has led them to really stupid decisions lately. I wouldn't be surprised if they kicked Russia out of the SWIFT and the WTO.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran: *breaths*
west: you are kicked out of SWIFT for breathing to loud

Russia: invades another country illegally
West: no plans on SWIFT

That’s what happens when you have economic leverage on your opponent. Iran’s “neither east nor west” made it so Iran had leverage on NOBODY.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496922737427816457

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

Iran should push for the Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan or if they don't want to take part, directly underwater to India.

Anything involving India Pakistan has never ended well.I think you are not aware of TAPI's fate.Started in 1995 ,it is nowhere near completion despite huge US backing.
So this will not work.
Your second proposal about underwater pipeline may work,but again India will hesitate to work on this project if this pipeline passed from anywhere near Pakistan maritime border as this will give Pakistan an opportunity to block gas supply line to India during War.

So shipping of gas containers to India is the way to go.