Iran has the highest nominal GDP in the Middle East: post JCPOA potential

[aryobarzan]

GDP only measures how much money is flowing around, it says nothing about wealth at all. Reportedly the richest country in the world by nominal GDP


https://youtu.be/ YB6gwOBClwE?list=FL4vz9bh_De7bgzPrKAESMLQ

Everywhere in the USA it looks like this today

GDP comparisons based on purchasing power parities are more meaningful for assessing the domestic market than comparisons based on nominal GDP. Turkey has by far the largest economy in the Middle East, at least twice the size of Iran, which actually has no industry (perhaps due to sanctions), while Turkey now has a strong, competitive industry, even in contrast to France, Spain or Italy. Unfortunately, even if some here might see things differently, a weak Turkey, Iran or another neighboring country is very bad for the region. Everyone has to see the effects, but sooner or later the Turks and the Iranians will see it too. Instead of berating each other, put the differences aside and band together for what is to come. You are only strong together.

I think you must have been in sleep for the past 20 years...Iran is world' no 10 steel producer...Iran has middle east largest auto industry with production out put of 1.5 million cars this coming year...should I continue...you need to do some reading before making a fool of yourself

PS: I think we need a minimum IQ test for PDF members...I am speechless.

 

[jauk]

Iran would be like germany if not for sanctions

I certainly hope not. Iran doesn't want to be anything like Germany.

 

[aryobarzan]

I certainly hope not. Iran doesn't want to be anything like Germany.

I think the guy with two German flags ...we know where he is from..but I will not say it Out loud....but you can guess by who he admires..

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

As you may know Brazil shines in agriculture and they have 4.9 more land compared to Iran.
Brazil is ahead of Iran in livestock production and number of products.

Even with all their advantages, there are fields in agriculture that Iran is doing very well like :
vegetables, fruits and wheat production

If Im not mistaken in agriculture and livestock production at year ~2020 it was something like:

$261 billion worth of Brazil production vs $104 billion of Iran.

 

[drmeson]

As you may know Brazil shines in agriculture and they have 4.9 more land compared to Iran.
Brazil is ahead of Iran in livestock production and number of products.

Even with all their advantages, there are fields in agriculture that Iran is doing very well like :
vegetables, fruits and wheat production
View attachment 857630
If Im not mistaken in agriculture and livestock production at year ~2020 it was something like:

$261 billion worth of Brazil production vs $104 billion of Iran.

So all in all against Brazil where is Iran standing by this deep and extensive calculation you have done?

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

So all in all against Brazil where is Iran standing by this deep and extensive calculation you have done?

I made a mistake on price of meat (I forgot data should be at 2020 ). with assumption ~$2.7 per kg of meat ( $3 per 1kg of beef and $1 per kg of chicken ).

Brazil had ~$223 billion agriculture and Iran had ~$99 B.

Agriculture makes 5.91% of Brazil's GDP and it makes 7% of Iran's .Which mean if these numbers are correct we can guess during 2020 Brazil had ~$3.7 T economy and Iran had ~$1.4 T.(only by judging agriculture data).


I'm working on industry next if we add industry dollars to agriculture's it will make a more clear scene with less margin of error.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Industry

Steel

In steel industry, Brazilian crude steel production was 32.2 million tons in 2019.

According to the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran produced over 28 million metric tons of steel in 2021, putting it just behind Brazil.

Chemical

In 2011, Brazil had the 6th largest chemical industry in the world.Since then their installed capacity didn't change that much.
at year 2017 they had $120 billion revenues.(chemical and petrochemical industries 2.5% of brazil's GDP)

Iran's petrochemical industry currently has 90m tonnes/year of production capacity.

Paper

In the paper and cellulose sector, Brazilian pulp production was 19.691 million tons in 2019.

Reserved space for Iran's data.

Pharmaceutical

Brazil was considered the sixth largest pharmaceutical market in the world. Drug sales in pharmacies reached around R $57 billion (US $17.79 billion) in the country.

Total healthcare spending is expected to rise from $24.3 billion in 2008, to $96 billion by 2017, reflecting the increasing demand on medical services.[3] Total health spending was equivalent to 6% of GDP in Iran in 2017

Footwear

In the leather-footwear sector (Footwear industry), in 2019 Brazil produced 972 million pairs. Exports were around 10%, reaching almost 125 million pairs. Brazil is in the 4th position among the world producers, behind China (who produces more than 10 billion pairs), India and Vietnam, and in 11th place among the biggest exporters.

"An estimated 185 to 210 million pairs of footwear were produced in the country last year (March 2016-17)," Iran

Textile

In Textile industry, Brazil, despite being among the 5 largest producers in the world in 2013, and being representative in the consumption of textiles and clothing, has very little insertion in global trade.
Brazil's participation in the world trade in textiles and clothing is only 0.3%, due to the difficulty of competing in price with producers in India and mainly in China.

There are a lot of small companies related to textile industries in Iran which they had $100-200 million exports.

Electricity

Brazil, In Electronics industry, In 2019, about 3% of the national GDP. Exports were US $5.6 billion, and the country's imports were US $32.0 billion. Installed capacity (2021) 181,532 MW.

TEHRAN – Iran’s total installed electricity generation capacity has reached 83,350 megawatts (MW) @2020.

Appliances

In the household appliances industry, sales of so-called "white line" equipment (refrigerator, air conditioning and others) were 12.9 million units in 2017.Brazil

TEHRAN – Iran’s Acting Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Hossein Modares Khiabani says the country’s home appliance manufacturers currently have the capacity to produce 20 million units every year, IRIB reported. @2020

Car

The most popular cars usually have small engines like 1.0 or 1.4 and are of flexible fuel using ethanol and gasoline.
All manufacturers on the list have assembling facilities in Brazil:
Fiat (22,56%)
Volkswagen (22,13%)
GM (19,97%)
Ford (9,21%)
Renault (6,7%)
Honda (2,89%)
Peugeot (2,75%)
Citröen (2,67%)
Hyundai (2,35%)
Nissan (2,02%)
Toyota (2,02%)
Kia (1,8%)
production 2.2 million cars per year@ 2020.

Based on the OICA data, Iranian automakers produced 894,298 vehicles in 2021 to register a two percent increase compared to 2020, IRNA reported.(quality is much lower compared to cars that made in Brazil).

Truck

In 2021, approximately 164.95 thousand trucks were produced in Brazil, a significant increase of more than 73 percent in comparison to the previous year.

Iran, capacity is at ~6000 but no report on actual production in recent years.

Cement

Brazil cement production were around 50Mt during 2020.

Iran: National cement production increased to 68.3Mt in the 2021 financial year, which ended on 20 March 2021.

Brazil,Container port throughput for 2021 was 10,130,740 tonnes, an increase of 10.71 per cent in comparison to 2020.

Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Sweden, Vietnam, Oman, Malaysia, Qatar, and Nigeria also have smaller shipping fleets than Iran.
The Islamic Republic currently has 246 vessels carrying the national flag and eight foreign flag vessels with a total capacity of 19,251,146 tons. The total capacity of the Iranian shipping fleet has increased by 5.5 percent in 2021.

Rail

Brazil

Iran

(if there is a mistake in data and numbers or you have better source close to year of 2020/2021 related to these sections , tell me)


Wait for more ...

 

[drmeson]

Industry

Steel

In steel industry, Brazilian crude steel production was 32.2 million tons in 2019.

According to the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran produced over 28 million metric tons of steel in 2021, putting it just behind Brazil.

Chemical

In 2011, Brazil had the 6th largest chemical industry in the world.Since then their installed capacity didn't change that much.
at year 2017 they had $120 billion revenues.(chemical and petrochemical industries 2.5% of brazil's GDP)

Iran's petrochemical industry currently has 90m tonnes/year of production capacity.

Paper

In the paper and cellulose sector, Brazilian pulp production was 19.691 million tons in 2019.

Reserved space for Iran's data.

Pharmaceutical
View attachment 858042
Brazil was considered the sixth largest pharmaceutical market in the world. Drug sales in pharmacies reached around R $57 billion (US $17.79 billion) in the country.

Total healthcare spending is expected to rise from $24.3 billion in 2008, to $96 billion by 2017, reflecting the increasing demand on medical services.[3] Total health spending was equivalent to 6% of GDP in Iran in 2017

Footwear
View attachment 858043
In the leather-footwear sector (Footwear industry), in 2019 Brazil produced 972 million pairs. Exports were around 10%, reaching almost 125 million pairs. Brazil is in the 4th position among the world producers, behind China (who produces more than 10 billion pairs), India and Vietnam, and in 11th place among the biggest exporters.

"An estimated 185 to 210 million pairs of footwear were produced in the country last year (March 2016-17)," Iran

Textile
View attachment 858044
In Textile industry, Brazil, despite being among the 5 largest producers in the world in 2013, and being representative in the consumption of textiles and clothing, has very little insertion in global trade.
Brazil's participation in the world trade in textiles and clothing is only 0.3%, due to the difficulty of competing in price with producers in India and mainly in China.

There are a lot of small companies related to textile industries in Iran which they had $100-200 million exports.

Electricity
View attachment 858045
Brazil, In Electronics industry, In 2019, about 3% of the national GDP. Exports were US $5.6 billion, and the country's imports were US $32.0 billion. Installed capacity (2021) 181,532 MW.

TEHRAN – Iran’s total installed electricity generation capacity has reached 83,350 megawatts (MW) @2020.

Appliances
View attachment 858046
In the household appliances industry, sales of so-called "white line" equipment (refrigerator, air conditioning and others) were 12.9 million units in 2017.Brazil

TEHRAN – Iran’s Acting Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Hossein Modares Khiabani says the country’s home appliance manufacturers currently have the capacity to produce 20 million units every year, IRIB reported. @2020

Car
View attachment 858047
The most popular cars usually have small engines like 1.0 or 1.4 and are of flexible fuel using ethanol and gasoline.
All manufacturers on the list have assembling facilities in Brazil:
Fiat (22,56%)
Volkswagen (22,13%)
GM (19,97%)
Ford (9,21%)
Renault (6,7%)
Honda (2,89%)
Peugeot (2,75%)
Citröen (2,67%)
Hyundai (2,35%)
Nissan (2,02%)
Toyota (2,02%)
Kia (1,8%)
production 2.2 million cars per year@ 2020.

Based on the OICA data, Iranian automakers produced 894,298 vehicles in 2021 to register a two percent increase compared to 2020, IRNA reported.(quality is much lower compared to cars that made in Brazil).

Truck
View attachment 858049
In 2021, approximately 164.95 thousand trucks were produced in Brazil, a significant increase of more than 73 percent in comparison to the previous year.

Iran, capacity is at ~6000 but no report on actual production in recent years.

Cement
View attachment 858055
Brazil cement production were around 50Mt during 2020.

Iran: National cement production increased to 68.3Mt in the 2021 financial year, which ended on 20 March 2021.

View attachment 858057
Brazil,Container port throughput for 2021 was 10,130,740 tonnes, an increase of 10.71 per cent in comparison to 2020.

Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Sweden, Vietnam, Oman, Malaysia, Qatar, and Nigeria also have smaller shipping fleets than Iran.
The Islamic Republic currently has 246 vessels carrying the national flag and eight foreign flag vessels with a total capacity of 19,251,146 tons. The total capacity of the Iranian shipping fleet has increased by 5.5 percent in 2021.

Rail
View attachment 858059
Brazil
View attachment 858036
Iran
View attachment 858037

(if there is a mistake in data and numbers or you have better source close to year of 2020/2021 related to these sections , tell me)


Wait for more ...

Woooh man. Thats some extensive work.


Waiting for the verdict though.

 

[Hydration]

GDP only measures how much money is flowing around, it says nothing about wealth at all. Reportedly the richest country in the world by nominal GDP


https://youtu.be/ YB6gwOBClwE?list=FL4vz9bh_De7bgzPrKAESMLQ

Everywhere in the USA it looks like this today

GDP comparisons based on purchasing power parities are more meaningful for assessing the domestic market than comparisons based on nominal GDP. Turkey has by far the largest economy in the Middle East, at least twice the size of Iran, which actually has no industry (perhaps due to sanctions), while Turkey now has a strong, competitive industry, even in contrast to France, Spain or Italy. Unfortunately, even if some here might see things differently, a weak Turkey, Iran or another neighboring country is very bad for the region. Everyone has to see the effects, but sooner or later the Turks and the Iranians will see it too. Instead of berating each other, put the differences aside and band together for what is to come. You are only strong together.

MIght as well say you have one enemy and goal. Its called the Arabs

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Industry part 2

Travel (domestic)

Number of passengers carried by railways of Brazil improved by 1.02 % from 15,648.0 million passenger-km in 2016 to 15,807.0 million passenger-km in 2017.

Number of passengers carried by railways of Iran jumped by 14.84 % from 13,270.0 million passenger-km in 2017 to 15,239.0 million passenger-km in 2018.

Roads

Brazil
Roadways: total: 2 million km (2018)
paved: 246,000 km (2018)
unpaved: 1.754 million km (2018)

Iran has long paved road system linking most of its towns and all of its cities. In 2016 the country had 221,000 km (137,323) of roads , of which 73% were paved

Domestic air travel

The country’s domestic passengers notched up 0.7% year-on-year in the 8M ending Aug-2019, to 62 million. Traffic was up 0.1% as Brazil ’s domestic capacity fell by 2.2% year-on-year.

Iran - Air transport,21,641,450 passengers carried (before Covid)

Brazil - Embraer
Commercial aircraft deliveries 130 @2020
Iran
Commercial aircraft deliveries 0 @2020 (maybe few trainers/VIP aircraft)

Brazil 366 vehicles per 1000 people
Iran 175 vehicles per 1000 people

Tire

Brazil tire market is expected to grow from USD5.92 billion in 2020 to USD8.63 billion by 2026. (I could not find anything about production in Brazil)
The production of tire in Iran has reached to 38.475 million tires during the first 11 months of the current Iranian year (March 21, 2019-February 19, 2020).

Demand for tire in Brazil is higher.

Refinary

The crude oil refining capacity in Brazil amounted to 2.41 million barrels per day in 2020.
Iran’s refining capacity reaches 2.3m bpd. (oil)

Oil

In 2020, Brazil produced an average of 2.94 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and condensate, an increase of more than 150,000 b/d on average compared with 2019.
In its Monthly Oil Market report in February, the OPEC put Iran's average production in 2021 at slightly over 2.4 million bpd, an increase from an average of 2 million bpd in 2020.

Natural Gas

Natural gas production in Brazil has more than doubled in one decade, reaching over 43.6 billion cubic meters in 2020.

In 2020, natural gas production in Iran amounted to around 250.8 billion cubic meters
Some 65 percent of fuel consumption in Iran belongs to gas; thus, the daily gas consumption in the country is equivalent to consuming five million barrels of crude oil per day.

If I missed anything or you like to add something here please tell me.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

So all in all against Brazil where is Iran standing by this deep and extensive calculation you have done?

If we assume Iran's industry is 60% of Brazil's industry.based on agriculture data plus industry it will make Iran's GDP ~$1.62 T and ~$3.06 T for Brazil.(mostly 2020 data)

And I think 60% is not fair for Iran !

70% assumption makes Iran's GDP $1.86 T.(70% is little bit too high, not realistic)
80% assumption makes Iran's GDP $2.1 T.(not fair for Brazil).

So it's up to you to decide.

 

[drmeson]

If we assume Iran's industry is 60% of Brazil's industry.based on agriculture data plus industry it will make Iran's GDP ~$1.62 T and ~$3.06 T for Brazil.(mostly 2020 data)

And I think 60% is not fair for Iran !

70% assumption makes Iran's GDP $1.86 T.(70% is little bit too high, not realistic)
80% assumption makes Iran's GDP $2.1 T.(not fair for Brazil).

So it's up to you to decide.

So the IMF estimate of 1.74 Trillion USD is right. I knew it

Can you gather all your extensive findings in one post so that we can have that knowledge in one place? I will prefer to create a slide of it so that if anyone challenges IMF figures again, we can use this data comparison with Brazil as a reference for IMF figures.

 

[Beny Karachun]

IMF data is BS, according to the IMF, Iran's GDP tripled within 5 years, that's literally impossible.

This is the reality of Iran

 

[blain2]

Revive RCD between Pakistan-Iran-Turkey. Make it really work hard. That will pay significant dividends for all three.

 

[drmeson]

@Cancerous Tumor

Our oil production per year alone is close to 1 Trillion USD ?

Iranian crude oil production average is 2500 Barrels per day which means 912500 BPD/year ... if Barrel price is somewhere around 105 USD that by oil production alone We are producting 912500 x 105 = 958 Million USD ?