Iran has the highest nominal GDP in the Middle East: post JCPOA potential

[nufix]

Case closed

You know that saying case closed wont actually close the case right?

But hey, I mean if that figure makes your sleep better at night...

 

[lydian fall]

You know that saying case closed wont actually close the case right?

But hey, I mean if that figure makes your sleep better at night...

Mr @aryobarzan has explained everything in fluid English

 

[nufix]

Mr @aryobarzan has explained everything in fluid English

Except two things that matter, type of exchange rates being used and Iran' GDP figures in Rial. Those are the underlying factors which validate or invalidate any numbers put forward thereafter.

 

[nufix]

Anyway, it is interesting that the value of IRR against USD according to Iranian central bank is just IRR 42000 throughout the months with no fluctuations whatsoever. Any currencies pegged to the USD such as QAR, SAR, also shows no movement in exchange rates as well.

The rates for other currencies basically just takes the fluctuations of those currencies against the USD and then divided by 42000 to get the rates. This is a clear indication that the currency rate is not being used for trade.

https://www.cbi.ir/exrates/rates_fa.aspx

 

[Dr-who]

The IMF's numbers are based on the official exchange rates, so they are not totally BS. If anything, it is Iran's government that might be BS-ing the numbers.

Iran maintains an official exchange rate that is completely detached from the open market rate (rates people are actually willing to trade USD against IRR with). At the moment it is IRR 42000 (official rate) against 270000+ (market rate), that is 6.5 times difference between the two rates. So an official GDP of USD 1.7 trillions is USD 260 billions in real life. Conversely, Turkey GDP is USD 4.5 trillion and Israel GDP is USD 2.6 trillions according to Iranian's exchange rate regime to USD.

View attachment 872815

Finally answer which makes sense

 

[nufix]

Another interesting find is Iran's latest GDP figure in rial as published by Iran's central bank (finally found it thanks to a good Iranian friend of mine). https://www.cbi.ir/page/23635.aspx

Iran's GDP in current prices kinda shows an impressive growth

But Iran's GDP in constant prices are actually stagnating.

Current prices are figures not adjusted to inflation whereas constant prices are figures adjusted to inflation. Current prices are base for nominal GDP whereas constant prices are base for Real GDP. GDP nominal taking the current prices into account is not usually an issue in determining a country's GDP because the differences between nominal and real are negligible, but in this case, the difference significant! A wide gap between the two figures of a country is usually a good indicator of massive inflation problems in that country.

The same publication also shows that the value of IRR in open rate is slipping down further against the USD.

There are two issues here. First is Iran's deliberate use of official exchange rate, and deliberate use of current prices as a singular index when talking about GDP.

 

[aryobarzan]

Another interesting find is Iran's latest GDP figure in rial as published by Iran's central bank (finally found it thanks to a good Iranian friend of mine). https://www.cbi.ir/page/23635.aspx

Iran's GDP in current prices kinda shows an impressive growth

View attachment 872962

But Iran's GDP in constant prices are actually stagnating.

View attachment 872961


Current prices are figures not adjusted to inflation whereas constant prices are figures adjusted to inflation. Current prices are base for nominal GDP whereas constant prices are base for Real GDP. GDP nominal taking the current prices into account is not usually an issue in determining a country's GDP because the differences between nominal and real are negligible, but in this case, the difference significant! A wide gap between the two figures of a country is usually a good indicator of massive inflation problems in that country.

The same publication also shows that the value of IRR in open rate is slipping down further against the USD.

View attachment 872963

There are two issues here. First is Iran's deliberate use of official exchange rate, and deliberate use of current prices as a singular index when talking about GDP.

Glad to know you answered all your points yourself

1- Rats data is indeed correct and not manipulated before being sent to IMF (I recall you referred to the figures as BS in your post .. not sure who the RATS are here!)
2- Iran official exchange rate is 42000 and used by IMF to calculate the GDP (may be because 95% of Iran trade is done using that exchange rate!)
3- IMF uses "Current prices" to calculate "nominal" GDP for all countries and not just Iran (we do not apologize for having a high nominal GDP! and yes we do have a high inflation and therefore GDP PPP is not at the same level as GDP nominal)

Now if you are not happy with any of the above, I suggest you take it up with the IMF board of directors and complain that their economics team are bunch of idiots and YOU are the MAN who knows better..

 

[nufix]

Glad to know you answered all your points yourself

1- Rats data is indeed correct and not manipulated before being sent to IMF (I recall you referred to the figures as BS in your post .. not sure who the RATS are here!)
2- Iran official exchange rate is 42000 and used by IMF to calculate the GDP (may be because 95% of Iran trade is done using that exchange rate!)
3- IMF uses "Current prices" to calculate "nominal" GDP for all countries and not just Iran (we do not apologize for having a high nominal GDP! and yes we do have a high inflation and therefore GDP PPP is not at the same level as GDP nominal)

Now if you are not happy with any of the above, I suggest you take it up with the IMF board of directors and complain that their economics team are bunch of idiots and YOU are the MAN who knows better..

Nobody says IMF are incorrect, and no I didnt say the numbers are BS as well. I said Iranian government is BS-ing the numbers and my finding actually confirms that. As you can see, Iranian central bank turns out maintains two exchange rates and it is not using the official exchange rates for trades. Why the two exchange rates? Why should anybody be confident with it if Iranian government itself is not using it for trade?

And again, why are you insisting that trade with Iran is using the official rate while I just brought you a clear evidence that your own central bank maintains two official exchange rates with the NIMA rates being the one that people are actually use as reference when they exchange their USD to IRR? Why is it also use the official rate to publish their USD figures? Are they afraid using the open rates might reveal how bad the economy of Iran actually is?

IMF methods in calculating the nominal GDP is the same for all countries, but that is never the issue here. The issue (again) the numbers that Iran published and were eventually used by IMF for its calculation.

Furthermore, I am not talking about GDP PPP my dude. I am talking about GDP in current prices vs. GDP in constant prices ergo nominal vs real gdp. I suggest you do your own reading for that.

Lastly, I am not the know it all man, that is why I kept on asking you or other Iranian PDF members here. But it seems other than subjective opinions, I got no concrete numbers. At the end of the day, you are only going to manipulate yourself because if you are not critical to your own self, who else?

 

[lastofthepatriots]

I forget where I read it, but I read an article that said Iran is wealthier than KSA and has more millionaires or billionaires or something. Is that true?

 

[aryobarzan]

I forget where I read it, but I read an article that said Iran is wealthier than KSA and has more millionaires or billionaires or something. Is that true?

from Middle East Eye​

Iran witnessing millionaire boom despite US sanctions and fifth Covid-19 wave​

The Islamic Republic has seen one of the world's biggest rises in wealthy individuals despite sanctions and coronavirus ravaging the country
According to the report, Iran now has more millionaires than Spain, Russia, Brazil and its oil-rich neighbour and regional rival, Saudi Arabia.

 

[drmeson]

Bump

 

[Ajamal]

So we have the 2nd largest GDP in the Islamic world. Highest in middle east despite sanctions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If JCPOA is successful where would we go from here?

Iran is a great country with great culture. She deserves a respectable position in world.

 

[drmeson]

Iran is a great country with great culture. She deserves a respectable position in world.

 

[Beny Karachun]

Bump

You're bumping false information since this is measured at official exchange rate, an artificial exchange rate no one is using, in reality the exchange rate in the black market is much worse, cutting the nominal GDP of Iran by almost 10

 

[drmeson]

You're bumping false information since this is measured at official exchange rate, an artificial exchange rate no one is using, in reality the exchange rate in the black market is much worse, cutting the nominal GDP of Iran by almost 10

You are a stupid Jew and nothing else, if you would have had turned pages back we had a deep and extensive comparison of the industrial output of Iran with Brazil which has similar numbers to Iran and has same GDP. How come one country has a GDP nominal of 1.7 trillion and other has 200 Billion ROFL? Use brain Jew if you have any.