Iran ends cooperation agreement with Pakistan

[Bratva]

Americans threatened to Sanction our Arse, so Pakistan backed out from the project

 

[rmi5]

Somebody posted here Iran had already spent some money on her side(for IP), is it true?

Well, the Iranian part of IP pipeline was not just for exporting gas to Pakistan, rather it was for providing gas to Kerman, East Hormozhan, Sistan&balouchistan, and South Khurasan provinces as well. So, it's hard to tell if all that money is spent for pipeline to Pakistan

Unlike the turbulent borders/relations with India and Afghanistan, the things between Iran and Pakistan were mostly calm, these things look a new development in the region.

 

[livingdead]

self-delete : did not read above post

 

[INDIC]

Option 3 is not the main reason either, since they are already having enough headache regarding sunnis, and are not looking for more Sunni-Shia clash.

Why would Iran like to open a new front against Pakistan when messed up with relations with Arabs and particularly the challenges coming from the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

 

[ای ایران]

self-delete : did not read above post

What rmi5 said above.

 

[Arya Desa]

Obviously this was bound to happen, why the Iranian government decided to pursue it is beyond me and honestly shows incompetence on their part. pakistan cannot go against America unless they want to be sanction even more, and they aren't in any position to absorb those sanctions.

 

[rmi5]

Why would Iran like to open a new front against Pakistan when messed up with relations with Arabs and particularly the challenges coming from the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

It may have many reasons. Maybe India has offered them a deal that they cannot refuse or maybe they are predicting the relation of Pakistan and US gets worse after US exists from Afghanistan, and want to get close to west with this strategy. Maybe they are afraid that Nawaz never trusts Iran and does not build pipelines. Many options can come into mind. We need to wait a couple of days to see the next move of Iran.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Interesting development. Which of the following causes do you suspect are behind this?

1). Simply as stated, the project is not financially viable.
2). Iran's growing confidence due to anticipation of Western engagement in the event a nuclear deal is signed.
3). Sectarian friction.
4). The wrong bureaucrats and politicians were bribed.

On Pakistan's side, it's hard to see how a more advantageous agreement can be signed in the future, especially if sanctions on Iran are eased. On Iran's side, it's difficult to see why the insurance of closer relations and trade integration with Pakistan could be so easily dismissed. What are your thoughts, @rmi5 ?

One word: Price.

The negotiated price was unrealistic and the primary reason cited by India when it pulled out of this project. This is the real reason why Pakistan has been dragging its feet too. IIRC, the price was pegged at 70% of petroleum price.

Pakistan would be better off getting LNG supplied from Qatar. I know for a fact that in the '90s Qataris wanted to ink a deal with Pakistan, but it could not happen.

This project is not dead. It has gone into hibernation, as expected, and will be renegotiated after some years - hopefully at better rates. Iranians have shown a reaction because they knew that this project was not going anywhere and perhaps face-saving like this seemed better to them.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

One word: Price.

The negotiated price was unrealistic and the primary reason cited by India when it pulled out of this project. This is the real reason why Pakistan has been dragging its feet too. IIRC, the price was pegged at 70% of petroleum price.

Pakistan would be better off getting LNG supplied from Qatar. I know for a fact that in the '90s Qataris wanted to ink a deal with Pakistan, but it could not happen.

This project is not dead. It has gone into hibernation, as expected, and will be renegotiated after some years - hopefully at better rates. Iranians have shown a reaction because they knew that this project was not going anywhere and perhaps face-saving like this seemed better to them.

That sounds reasonable, but why would Pakistan have signed the agreement in the first place, if the price were so unfavorable?

 

[Imran Khan]

good news case close lets move on

 

[Chak Bamu]

That sounds reasonable, but why would Pakistan have signed the agreement in the first place, if the price were so unfavorable?

I wish I had that information. Seems as though this deal was signed when petroleum prices were fluctuating around 35 USD. It makes no sense to continue this project when gas prices are going down as Fracking picks up pace.

Venerable Mr. @niaz is the PDF expert on matter relating to energy (Hydro Carbons in particular). It would be interesting to hear something from him. His opinions are well-formed upon facts and he has often corrected people like myself when we go too far in our speculations.

 

[INDIC]

It may have many reasons. Maybe India has offered them a deal that they cannot refuse or maybe they are predicting the relation of Pakistan and US gets worse after US exists from Afghanistan, and want to get close to west with this strategy. Maybe they are afraid that Nawaz never trusts Iran and does not build pipelines. Many options can come into mind. We need to wait a couple of days to see the next move of Iran.

Only common strategic concern Iran and India share is Taliban in Afghanistan post-American withdrawal and that's true with all the countries in the vicinity of Afghanistan. Easing of Western sanctions means India can buy more oil from Iran. But still Pakistan-Iran confrontation is a big surprise for many as it had never existed openly in last 10 years. Nawaz Sharif is well know for his extreme deviation towards Saudis but he can't do it alone in Pakistan, army of Pakistan also have immense influence in foreign affairs. The former Saudi regime hated the Shia President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari.

 

[Kaniska]

Well, I do believe that everything in Iran is done by the direct order or consent of Khamenei, their leader. In Iran, such odds like having border clashes, then immediately the most important deal with a country, then sign a deal with the enemy of that country, does not happen accidentally
I am glad that you organized the discussion into this format.
Option 1 is not the case. Basically, Iran does not consider economic concerns as their main source for decision making. what matters are their strategic benefits. you can understand this by considering the huge direct and indirect costs(over 140 billion dollars) for so called Peaceful nuclear energy, or the money they pay to Hamas and hezbollah which puts them in isolation. As Khomeini said: "Economy belongs to donkeys!"
Option 3 is not the main reason either, since they are already having enough headache regarding sunnis, and are not looking for more Sunni-Shia clash.
option 4 is always present in every deal, but does not void them. No reason for bribery to cut such deal.
Option 2 is the answer or part of the correct answer. Iran is changing direction, since they no longer can afford their previous policy. It seems that getting close to India and getting far from Pakistan is part of their strategy.

This is a significant observation.....Here is my thought from India's engagement perspective.

1- Off late, after BJP came to power, it has started taking lot of traction with India's foreign policy engagements that have importance wrt to trade and investment.
2- There are some urgency shown by Indian Gov for projects such as Chabar port as well as couple of Pharma companies from India declared that they are going to start investing and building manufacturing unit in Iran.
3- If US exits from Afghanistan and Pakistan keep on playing its dirty game,e India and Iran's intrest in Afganistan merge together.
4- And at last, this decision may be more a economic choice for Iran than any political motive..Pakistan and its demand for Oil is not so lucrative enough to go for the deal...

 

[Skywalker]

Just a suggestion to Iranian/Persian friends..........

Fence the wall or wire along the border with Pakistan....This will secure you against terrorists.....

India is doing along the border with Pakistan... Just serves you better ..........fire at sight of movement

Are you gonna do the same thing with china or you need there permission first.

 

[A.M.]

Americans threatened to Sanction our Arse, so Pakistan backed out from the project

Story of Pakistan's existence.

Be somebody else's B**** instead of standing up for themselves.